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THE GAME IS JUST STARTING
by Lusine Barseghyan
Haykakan Zhamanak
Jan 26 2008
Armenia
Before the official start of the presidential campaign, a number
of political experts were able to evaluate the political situation
and make their forecasts regarding the presidential election [on
19 February].
However, given that TV channels are obliged to give air to the
chief rival of the authorities' candidate [Prime Minister Serzh
Sargsyan], the first Armenian president Levon Ter-Petrosyan too,
what has changed or can change? Political expert and director of the
Media Caucasus Institute Aleksandr Iskandaryan believes that although
the electioneering actually started on 21 September [2007], after
the campaigning officially got under way and all the presidential
hopefuls got access to TV air, many things have radically changed.
Thus, the political sphere will change depending on the fact, how
aggressive a candidate's campaign will be run, how many mistakes will
be made, theoretically candidates' withdrawals [from the race] are
possible. "The game is not played yet," Iskandaryan notes. Regardless
of this, he considers the struggle will be held between the two
contenders: Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Serzh Sargsyan. All the other
presidential bidders, in the expert's opinion, play the supplementary
role, as their actual goal is not winning the president's post. At
present Serzh Sargsyan is presumed to have more chances for victory.
Why? The expert remarks the Armenian electorate is divided into three
parts: people, voting for stability, so that things could go the way
they are today. It is the layer of civil servants, public sector,
people related to business. The expert, however, does not expect that
these people determine the elections outcome.
The second is the protesting electorate, which deliberately votes
against the authorities. Though, in the expert's opinion, they are
also not sufficient for victory. They do not constitute 70-80 per
cent, at any rate. The major and determinative part is apathetic
and non-politicized electorate, people who have no opinion and are
ready to sell it. Iskandaryan states that Serzh Sargsyan has enormous
administrative resources, is presently believed to be a frontrunner,
which does not mean he will remain such. "Ter-Petrosyan's goal is to
destroy this machine, turn an apathetic person into a protesting one.
Theoretically it is possible, and there is such an opportunity. Let's
wait and see what will make out of it", says the political expert.
Iskandaryan gave the following response to the question how many
rounds of voting will have the coming presidential election: "It
depends on how big the rallies will be. If they gather 30 people,
I will answer one thing, if there are 300 people, my answer will
be different, if they last 1 hour, I will give one answer, if they
last three days, I will give another." And the question whether a
rally of the similar scope several days ago does not mean anything,
had an answer: "Of course, it means. It speaks of the seriousness
of Yerevan's protesting electorate, ready to support Ter-Petrosyan's
presidential bid. But this is still not enough for regional dwellers
to become a protest electorate. "
In Yerevan, Mr Iskandaryan believes, many things are decided, but
Armenia is not Georgia, and regions' votes have importance. And
taking into consideration the way first president is received in the
regions, doesn't this mean the situation in the regions goes out of
the authorities' control too? "Levon Ter-Petrosyan's return radically
changed the struggle criteria. If not him, the struggle for running for
the president's post would be an issue of management. Almost similar
struggle took place during the parliamentary election [in 2007].
"Then Ter-Petrosyan emerged, who is obviously not engaged in this
sphere. In addition to the fact that the forces are different,
the political figures are also different. Ter-Petrosyan is a
public and ideological figure, who can speak. Serzh Sargsyan is
not a public figure. He is rather a manager. But if the struggle is
being transferred into ideological sphere, what the first president
immediately did, Serzh Sargsyan and the authorities have to respond
in the same manner. And the authorities' camp is not united. This is
the reason, why it responds not that assertive, and there is behaviour
of panic."
by Lusine Barseghyan
Haykakan Zhamanak
Jan 26 2008
Armenia
Before the official start of the presidential campaign, a number
of political experts were able to evaluate the political situation
and make their forecasts regarding the presidential election [on
19 February].
However, given that TV channels are obliged to give air to the
chief rival of the authorities' candidate [Prime Minister Serzh
Sargsyan], the first Armenian president Levon Ter-Petrosyan too,
what has changed or can change? Political expert and director of the
Media Caucasus Institute Aleksandr Iskandaryan believes that although
the electioneering actually started on 21 September [2007], after
the campaigning officially got under way and all the presidential
hopefuls got access to TV air, many things have radically changed.
Thus, the political sphere will change depending on the fact, how
aggressive a candidate's campaign will be run, how many mistakes will
be made, theoretically candidates' withdrawals [from the race] are
possible. "The game is not played yet," Iskandaryan notes. Regardless
of this, he considers the struggle will be held between the two
contenders: Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Serzh Sargsyan. All the other
presidential bidders, in the expert's opinion, play the supplementary
role, as their actual goal is not winning the president's post. At
present Serzh Sargsyan is presumed to have more chances for victory.
Why? The expert remarks the Armenian electorate is divided into three
parts: people, voting for stability, so that things could go the way
they are today. It is the layer of civil servants, public sector,
people related to business. The expert, however, does not expect that
these people determine the elections outcome.
The second is the protesting electorate, which deliberately votes
against the authorities. Though, in the expert's opinion, they are
also not sufficient for victory. They do not constitute 70-80 per
cent, at any rate. The major and determinative part is apathetic
and non-politicized electorate, people who have no opinion and are
ready to sell it. Iskandaryan states that Serzh Sargsyan has enormous
administrative resources, is presently believed to be a frontrunner,
which does not mean he will remain such. "Ter-Petrosyan's goal is to
destroy this machine, turn an apathetic person into a protesting one.
Theoretically it is possible, and there is such an opportunity. Let's
wait and see what will make out of it", says the political expert.
Iskandaryan gave the following response to the question how many
rounds of voting will have the coming presidential election: "It
depends on how big the rallies will be. If they gather 30 people,
I will answer one thing, if there are 300 people, my answer will
be different, if they last 1 hour, I will give one answer, if they
last three days, I will give another." And the question whether a
rally of the similar scope several days ago does not mean anything,
had an answer: "Of course, it means. It speaks of the seriousness
of Yerevan's protesting electorate, ready to support Ter-Petrosyan's
presidential bid. But this is still not enough for regional dwellers
to become a protest electorate. "
In Yerevan, Mr Iskandaryan believes, many things are decided, but
Armenia is not Georgia, and regions' votes have importance. And
taking into consideration the way first president is received in the
regions, doesn't this mean the situation in the regions goes out of
the authorities' control too? "Levon Ter-Petrosyan's return radically
changed the struggle criteria. If not him, the struggle for running for
the president's post would be an issue of management. Almost similar
struggle took place during the parliamentary election [in 2007].
"Then Ter-Petrosyan emerged, who is obviously not engaged in this
sphere. In addition to the fact that the forces are different,
the political figures are also different. Ter-Petrosyan is a
public and ideological figure, who can speak. Serzh Sargsyan is
not a public figure. He is rather a manager. But if the struggle is
being transferred into ideological sphere, what the first president
immediately did, Serzh Sargsyan and the authorities have to respond
in the same manner. And the authorities' camp is not united. This is
the reason, why it responds not that assertive, and there is behaviour
of panic."