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  • TOL: Watching Armenia, Quietly

    Transitions on Line, Czech Republic
    Feb 14 2008


    Watching Armenia, Quietly

    by Rovshan Ismayilov
    14 February 2008

    Analysts in Baku wonder who is the better candidate in the Armenian
    presidential race. From EurasiaNet.

    BAKU | In Azerbaijan, official or public interest in Armenia's
    upcoming presidential election is minimal. Few in Baku see the
    impending political transition in Yerevan as having much of an impact
    on efforts to break the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations stalemate.

    Despite a recent push to revive peace talks, analysts contend that a
    lack of popular hope in Baku for the normalization of Azeri-Armenian
    relations, or for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, is behind
    the lack of interest in the Armenian election.

    The Azeri government's indifferent stance reinforces this impression.
    The identity of Armenia's new president, foreign ministry
    spokesperson Khazar Ibrahim succinctly commented, `will be the choice
    of the Armenian voters and society.'

    The Armenian vote is viewed generally by Azeri onlookers as a choice
    between just two candidates, even though nine are officially in the
    race. The winner of the 19 February election will replace Robert
    Kocharian, who must leave office after serving two terms.


    Serzh Sarkisian
    Most believe that the two candidates with any chance of winning are
    Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, who is seen as the favorite, and
    former president Levon Ter-Petrosian, who was in office during
    Armenia's 1988-1994 war with Azerbaijan over control of Karabakh.

    >From Baku's perspective, the other seven candidates in Yerevan simply
    do not exist. There is virtually no mention of them in the Azeri
    media, and their movements and statements generally are not followed
    by Baku political analysts or government officials. Between Sarkisian
    and Ter-Petrosian, the latter is seen as a political leader more open
    to compromise with Azerbaijan.

    READY FOR COMPROMISE?

    `Ter-Petrosian is an experienced politician who is ready for
    courageous solutions,' commented Rasim Musabekov, an
    opposition-friendly political analyst in Baku. `And his speeches show
    he is readier to stop the hostilities with Azerbaijan. But the issue
    is whether Ter-Petrosian will be able to control the hawks in the
    Armenian administration.'

    `He said several times that it is necessary for Armenia to have
    better relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey,' agreed Rauf Mirkadirov,
    a political columnist for the Russian-language daily Zerkalo (Mirror)
    who recently returned from a trip to Armenia. `Of course, better
    relations are not possible without compromises on the
    Nagorno-Karabakh issue.'

    Former presidential foreign policy aide Vafa Guluzade, who took part
    in the Karabakh peace talks during the 1990s, also sees Ter-Petrosian
    as capable of `real' compromises - a pullout from the seven occupied
    Azeri territories surrounding Karabakh and the start of some form of
    cooperation with Azerbaijan. Guluzade blames Russia's supposed
    dislike of such compromises for the former president's resignation in
    1998.

    With the pro-Russian Sarkisian in power, Guluzade forecasted, `the
    [peace] process will remain stuck. `

    The deputy chairman of the Azeri Parliament's Security and Defense
    Committee disagreed. `I do not see a big difference between them,'
    Aydin Mirzazade said, referring to the Sarkisian and Ter-Petrosian
    positions on Karabakh. `It was Ter-Petrosian who appointed Karabakh
    war hawks Serzh Sarkisian and Robert Kocharian [as] Armenian defense
    minister and prime minister, respectively.'

    Speeches made by Ter-Petrosian, though, Mirzazade continued, indicate
    that he grasps `Azerbaijan's growing strength' - a phrase commonly
    used to refer to the country's energy-fueled economic boom and recent
    military buildup.

    Mirzazade said regardless of who wins, `the new president will have
    to consider the new realities of our region and Azerbaijan's growing
    military and economic potential.'

    Analyst Musabekov sees Sarkisian as out of sync with those `new
    realities.'

    `This group does not really understand the situation in the region ...
    and does not see the risks that Azerbaijan is getting stronger.
    Sarkisian is more confrontational,' he said.

    The Foreign Ministry's Ibrahim noted only that the government hopes
    Armenia's next president will take a `more constructive position on
    the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.'

    The expected victory by Sarkisian could bring some benefits for the
    Karabakh peace process, Musabekov suggested. `Sarkisian is from the
    incumbent administration that conducts talks with Azerbaijan. If he
    wins, there will not be need for delays in the negotiation process.
    He will not need time to get a grasp of the situation.'

    The fact that Sarkisian is originally from Karabakh is another
    advantage, Musabekov continued. `Because once he decides to accept
    compromises, he will face fewer problems to persuade the elite of
    Nagorno-Karabakh to agree with that.'

    Another independent political expert, Ilgar Mammadov, believes that
    the election means Yerevan is currently under greater outside
    pressure than Baku to compromise on Karabakh.

    INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE

    In early January, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
    Europe's Minsk Group, which is overseeing negotiations between
    Armenia and Azerbaijan, traveled to Baku, Yerevan, and Karabakh. `The
    reason for these renewed efforts [by both governments] lies in the
    understanding that there is a high correlation between election
    cycles and the negotiation process,' Mammadov noted. `Previously, the
    presidents of both Armenia and Azerbaijan, when up for election, have
    always promised a compromise in order to ensure the West's support
    amidst election fraud and failed to deliver such a compromise
    afterwards under various pretexts.'

    Eventually, though, international pressure will focus on Azerbaijan,
    he said. `Apparently, Yerevan is pressed harder now, but the pressure
    will shift to Baku after April, heading towards the October 2008
    presidential elections in Azerbaijan,' he noted.

    If Ter-Petrosian somehow wins the vote, Mammadov believes, Western
    pressure on Azerbaijan will stay strong, even after its upcoming
    presidential poll. `He already says he is ready for compromises.
    Therefore, if he wins, the West will demand more compromises from
    Baku as well,' the expert said.


    Rovshan Ismayilov is freelance journalist based in Baku. A partner
    post from EurasiaNet.
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