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  • Armenian Reporter - 2/16/2008 - front section

    ARMENIAN REPORTER

    PO Box 129
    Paramus, New Jersey 07652
    Tel: 1-201-226-1995
    Fax: 1-201-226-1660

    3191 Casitas Ave Ste 216
    Los Angeles CA 90039
    Tel: 1-323-671-1030
    Fax: 1-323-671-1033

    1 Yeghvard Hwy Fl 5
    Yerevan 0054 Armenia
    Tel: 374-10-367-195
    Fax: 374-10-367-195 fax

    Web: http://www.reporter.am
    Email: [email protected]

    February 16, 2008 -- From the front section

    To see the printed version of the newspaper, complete with photographs
    and additional content, visit www.reporter.am and download the pdf
    files. It's free.

    1. Armenian presidential race heats up

    2. No fatalities as airplane burns in Yerevan airport

    3. Washington briefing (by Emil Sanamyan)
    * Armenian-Americans mourn loss of Rep. Tom Lantos
    * Rep. Sherman questions Secretary of State about proposed Armenia aid cut
    * Reports: Anti-Armenian activist is Sen. Clinton's delegate to DNC convention
    * Billionaire Georgian government opponent dies in exile

    4. In Hrant Dink murder trial, a third hearing is held (by Talin Suciyan)
    * 2,000 hold placards "For Hrant, For Justice"

    5. "The objective was to get rid of all Armenians" (Interview by Efnan Atmaca)
    * Taner Akçam, the author of Ermeni Meselesi Hallolunmustur [The
    Armenian Issue is Resolved], states: "We can comfortably assert that
    in light of these documents, the thesis that what was experienced in
    1915 does not fit within the definition of genocide from 1948 is no
    longer credible."

    6. The Candidates: Serge Sargsian believes that Armenia's future lies
    in a knowledge-based society (by Maria Titizian)
    * Promises fight against poverty
    * Touts record as defense minister

    7. Shushi Revival Fund is set to undertake a fundamental makeover of
    the city (by Betty Panossian-Ter Sarkissian)

    8. Flying over the fire for Diyarendarach (by Betty Panossian-Ter Sarkissian)

    9. The presidential campaign heats up (roundup)

    10. Levon Ter-Petrossian's accusations are "immoral" Vartan Oskanian says

    11. Fire at the Justice Ministry

    12. News Analysis: Armenia elections: Polls point to Sargsian victory
    (by Emil Sanamyan)
    * Ter-Petrossian's campaign adds intrigue

    13. Living in Armenia: The murky political waters (by Maria Titizian)

    14. Letters: Armenia was written all over her wardrobe (by Lucine Kasbarian)

    15. Editorial: Armenia prepares to elect a president

    *************************************** ************************************

    1. Armenian presidential race heats up

    YEREVAN -- Citizens of Armenia will be going to the polls on Tuesday,
    February 19, to vote for their next president. After two five-year
    terms, President Robert Kocharian will be stepping down and the
    country is gearing up to choose his successor.

    The major candidates have been touring the country and the districts
    of Yerevan, meeting and greeting potential voters.

    Large political rallies have been organized by the leading
    contenders in the race. Artur Baghdasarian, Vahan Hovhanessian, and
    Levon Ter-Petrossian each had tens of thousands of supporters out for
    their respective rallies in Freedom Square in Yerevan.

    Mr. Ter-Petrossian plans another Freedom Square rally for February 16.

    Serge Sargsian will conclude his presidential election campaign with
    what is expected to be a large show of force at Republic Square on
    Sunday, February 17, which is the last day allowed for campaigning
    according to Armenia's Electoral Code.

    While some candidates attempted to campaign on the issues, the
    political atmosphere deteriorated as allegations and accusations were
    made of treason, vote rigging, and bribery. Many, including the Holy
    See of Etchmiadzin have called for calm in the country.

    See the last of our candidate profiles, a campaign round-up, and
    commentary, below.

    ****************************************** *********************************

    2. No fatalities as airplane burns in Yerevan airport

    YEREVAN -- All 18 passengers and 3 crewmembers survived a harrowing
    incident at Yerevan's Zvartnots Airport at 4:15 a.m. on Feb. 14.
    During the takeoff of a CRJ-100 Belavia airplane headed for Minsk, the
    left wing of the plane hit the runway, causing a fire to erupt. The
    plane then skidded off the runway, broke into two pieces, and burst
    into flames. Emergency crews responded instantly, evacuating
    passengers and crew and bringing the fire under control.

    Six people were taken to a Yerevan hospital with injuries.

    The airplane is manufactured by the Canadian Bombardier company.

    An investigation into the crash is being conducted by the Civil
    Aviation Agency and law-enforcement bodies of Armenia. Participating
    in the investigation will be the International Aviation Committee of
    the CIS with the participation of representatives from Belarus and
    Canada.

    ************************************* **************************************

    3. Washington briefing

    by Emil Sanamyan

    * Armenian-Americans mourn loss of Rep. Tom Lantos

    Rep. Tom Lantos (D.-Calif.), 80, died on February 11 due to
    complications from cancer, his office reported. A member of Congress
    for 28 years, Mr. Lantos was chair of the House Foreign Affairs
    Committee, which last October overcame unprecedented opposition from
    the Turkish government, the Bush Administration, and influential
    figures in the Democratic Party and passed a resolution that affirms
    the Armenian Genocide.

    Mr. Lantos, the only Holocaust survivor in Congress, voted for the
    measure and then, amid threats by Turkey to retaliate against U.S.
    interests, went on national television to defend its passage as "a
    significant step in restoring the moral authority of U.S. foreign
    policy."

    "U.S. foreign policy was strong when it was based on a sound
    foundation of a moral authority," Mr. Lantos told the PBS Newshour on
    October 11. "It's Abu Ghraib and similar episodes which have
    diminished our standing globally. And the international community is
    not critical of the fact that the United States calls a genocide a
    genocide."

    "Congressman Lantos played a pivotal role in securing the Committee
    passage of the Armenian Genocide resolution last year," said Ross
    Vartian, executive director of the U.S.-Armenia Public Affairs
    Committee. "His principled stance and eloquent arguments in favor of
    this -- the only right policy -- have earned him the respect of the
    Armenian American community. We mourn his passing and hope his
    principled stand will inspire other American foreign policy leaders."

    The chair of the Armenian National Committee of America, Ken
    Hachikian, and the Armenian Assembly of America's executive director
    Bryan Ardouny praised Mr. Lantos's leadership and offered condolences
    on behalf of their respective organizations.

    Last month, Mr. Lantos announced plans to retire from Congress later
    this year. On February 12, following his death, California Governor
    Arnold Schwarzenegger issued a proclamation to hold a special election
    on June 3 to fill Mr. Lantos's congressional seat. Former California
    State Senator and Armenian-American Jackie Speier is heavily favored
    to win that election.

    * Rep. Sherman questions Secretary of State about proposed Armenia aid cut

    In congressional testimony on February 13, Secretary of State
    Condoleezza Rice discussed the Bush Administration-proposed budget for
    the next fiscal year and was questioned on the proposed cut in U.S.
    assistance to Armenia.

    Rep. Brad Sherman (D.-Calif.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs
    Committee, questioned the administration's proposal to cut Armenia's
    aid allocation from $58.5 million appropriated by Congress last year
    to $24 million in fiscal 2009. (See this page in the February 9
    Armenian Reporter.)

    In response, Dr. Rice appeared to justify the cut by pointing to
    assistance the United States is providing Armenia under the
    performance-based Millennium Challenge Account.

    Mr. Sherman also recalled the administration's opposition to the
    Genocide resolution. "It adds insult to injury that the Bush
    Administration would seek to dramatically cut funding for Armenia,
    while stifling efforts to recognize the historic tragedy of the
    Armenian Genocide," Rep. Sherman said, according to his office. "I
    will make every effort to ensure that Congress restores full funding
    for Armenia."

    In testimony the same day, Dr. Rice promised to heed the call by
    leaders of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee and re-appoint a
    "special energy coordinator who could especially spend time on the
    Central Asian and Caspian region." The State Department had a
    designated envoy focusing solely on Caspian energy between 1998 and
    2004.

    * Reports: Anti-Armenian activist is Sen. Clinton's delegate to DNC convention

    Mehmet Celebi, a Chicago-based Turkish-American businessperson who is
    on record as promoting Genocide denial and Armenia-bashing, is a major
    donor for the presidential campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton (D.-N.Y.)
    and has been selected as one of her delegates to the Democratic
    National Convention, according to the Senator's campaign web site. In
    addition to large personal contributions, Mr. Celebi has helped the
    campaign raise more than $100,000.

    On February 11, the New York Post picked up reports by the National
    Review and other online political blogs that have pointed to Mr.
    Celebi's involvement in the Valley of the Wolves: Iraq, a 2006 Turkish
    film with highly anti-American and anti-Semitic content. Ms. Clinton's
    campaign did not return the Post's request for comment, but shortly
    after the publications appeared, the web site of Mr. Celebi's company,
    BMH Worldwide Entertainment, went off-line.

    In February 2007 the Turkish Daily News noted Mr. Celebi's
    cooperation with the Turkish leadership. He reportedly told the
    newspaper, "Prominent figures of the [Armenian] diaspora pay Hollywood
    to make genocide movies.... We should also be relying on such methods
    and commission movies explaining Turkey's side of the story."

    Ms. Clinton is currently in a tight race for Democratic presidential
    nomination with Sen. Barack Obama (D.-Ill.), whose campaign has gained
    momentum after winning elections in five states as well as the
    District of Columbia since Super Tuesday.

    * Billionaire Georgian government opponent dies in exile

    Arkady (Badri) Patarkatsishvili, 52, a Georgian billionaire who last
    year promised to use his fortune to oust President Mikhail
    Saakashvili, died on February 14 at his home in Britain. Local police
    said the death came after a sudden heart attack and that they had no
    evidence of foul play.

    One Georgian opposition politician called the death an "indirect
    murder," Civil.ge reported the same day. The Georgian government has
    charged Mr. Patarkatsishvili with an attempted coup d'etat.

    The businessperson, who made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s,
    went to Georgia after facing charges of embezzlement there. About a
    year ago, he fell out with Mr. Saakashvili, whom he had previously
    supported, and has since left Georgia, reportedly fearing for his
    life.

    Mr. Saakashvili was re-elected in a contentious election last month
    and continues to face opposition protests. At a February 6 hearing of
    the U.S. Commission for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Deputy
    Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza admitted that the Georgia's
    most recent "election was not an example or a model to be followed
    elsewhere in the world," but urged the opposition to forget about
    trying to overturn its results and instead focus on upcoming
    parliamentary elections.

    In a sign of continued U.S. support for Mr. Saakashvili, the Senate
    Foreign Relations Committee on February 13 passed a resolution urging
    the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to invite Georgia, along
    with Ukraine, for membership talks in the organization. Mr.
    Saakashvili is also expected to pay an official visit to Washington
    next month.

    ****************************************** *********************************

    4. In Hrant Dink murder trial, a third hearing is held

    * 2,000 hold placards "For Hrant, For Justice"

    by Talin Suciyan

    YEREVAN -- The third hearing of the Hrant Dink's murder trial was held
    on February 11 in Istanbul, at the Besiktas Heavy Penal Court. It
    lasted eight hours. The hearing was videotaped, a first for Turkey.

    The court heard the testimony of two defendants: Erhan Tuncel, a
    police informant, and Yasin Hayal, who is accused of having recruited
    and armed O.S. [Ogun Samast -Ed.], the boy who has confessed to
    pulling the trigger.

    Mr. Tuncel read from a prepared text and declined to answer
    questions. He said, "I did what I was expected to do. If I had had bad
    intentions, I would not have informed about the murder." He repeated
    the names of eight police officers with whom he said he was in
    contact. One of them is Muhittin Zenit. Mr. Zenit was working for the
    Trabzon police. He was the one who called Mr. Tuncel after the murder
    and said, "My brother, [the murderer] was not supposed to run away,
    but he did." This phone call was part of the evidence that police knew
    about the murder before it took place. During the hearing, Mr. Tuncel
    assailed Rakel Dink, the widow of the murdered man, saying "She ended
    up being a saint over us."

    * Bone age 19

    The age of O.S. is to be examined at the next hearing, which is
    scheduled for February 25. According to forensic medical experts, bone
    evidence indicates that he is 19 years old. The case is being heard in
    closed court, and the defendant faces 18 to 24 years of imprisonment
    because of his age. (He faces another 8.5 to 18 years on charges being
    a member of a terrorist organization and carrying an unlicensed gun.)
    If his age at the time of the crime is established as 19, he would
    face life in prison and he would be tried in open court.

    The court declined the request of Dink family lawyers to join the
    cases against two gendarmes in Trabzon and a police officer in Samsun.
    The officers will be tried for gross negligence and withholding
    evidence.

    * Lagendijk followed the hearing

    Joost Lagendijk, chair of the European Parliament's Joint
    Parliamentary Committee with Turkey, was present in court. Mr. Hayal's
    lawyer, Fuat Turgut, requested that Mr. Lagendijk be asked to leave,
    referring to him as a brussels sprout. The request was declined.

    After the hearing Mr. Lagendijk said, "The important thing is that
    whether the people in the backstage are included in the court case.
    There are police and gendarmes who should have been here, but are not.
    They knew about the murder beforehand. We think the information
    gathered in the framework of the 'Ergenekon' gang case is related to
    Hrant Dink's murder."

    Mr. Hayal's lawyer Fuat Turgut had been taken into custody in the
    framework an operation organized by the police against "Ergenekon," an
    ultranationalist gang. He was later freed.

    Some 2,000 people were gathered outside the courthouse with placards
    in three languages, Armenian, Turkish, and Kurdish, reading, "For
    Hrant, For Justice."

    ********************************** *****************************************

    5. "The objective was to get rid of all Armenians"

    Interview by Efnan Atmaca

    * Taner Akçam, the author of Ermeni Meselesi Hallolunmustur [The
    Armenian Issue is Resolved], states: "We can comfortably assert that
    in light of these documents, the thesis that what was experienced in
    1915 does not fit within the definition of genocide from 1948 is no
    longer credible."



    [On January 25, the Turkish daily Radikal published an extensive
    interview with Taner Akçam on his new book, The Armenian Issue Is
    Resolved: Policies Against the Armenians During the War Years
    According to Ottoman Documents. The book sold out within the first
    week of publication in Turkey. The title is a direct quote from Talaat
    Pasha.

    The text of the interview, translated from the Turkish by Fatima
    Sakarya, appears below with permission.]

    It has been exactly one year since the assassination of Hrant Dink.
    Last Saturday, on this first anniversary, tens of thousands gathered
    once again "For Hrant, For Justice." Taner Akçam, whose book, Ermeni
    Meselesi Hallolunmustur ["The Armenian Issue Is Resolved"] opens up
    the debate about what occurred in 1915 with new documentation, has
    also just been published, and Akçam, who dedicates the book to "my
    brother Hrant, who will always represent the nobility and virtue of
    having a conscience... Dear Hrant, everything is as we had spoken...,"
    both memorialized his friend and brought a new viewpoint to the
    matter. By building connections, one by one, among new records he was
    able to obtain, Akçam brings new perspectives to the policies which
    were enforced against Armenians in 1915. In his book, subtitled
    Policies Against the Armenians During the War Years According to
    Ottoman Documents, while revealing each of the many telegrams sent by
    Talat Pasha, Akcam states that the deportation of 1915 was the last
    stage of the Turkification policies of that period. In particular,
    supported by primary sources, he explains how this project was
    personally developed well in advance by Talat Pasha and put into
    action through the efforts of the Teskilat-I Mahsusa (Special
    Organization). One of the most crucial documents in the book, the one
    which gives the book its title, is a telegram from Talat Pasha: "The
    Armenian issue is resolved. There's no need to stain the nation and
    the government with extra atrocities."

    Q: The events of 1915 are a huge controversy. The opposing sides of
    the controversy continually claim to possess and then publish
    important documents, and argue about whether or not to open up the
    Ottoman archives ...On the other side, there are others who state that
    in writing about history a "document cult" shouldn't be created and
    that the process shouldn't be reduced to a war of documents. Meanwhile
    your book is completely based upon documentation...What and how can
    records tell us anything?

    Taner Akçam: If you are being open and honest, historical records
    can easily provide a general framework for how events occurred. Still,
    you need to distinguish here between two separate points. First of
    all, the main issue is the frame, the model you are creating when you
    are gathering these documents. Secondly is the question of how much do
    the records you're presenting truly reflect reality. If someone
    possesses an understanding of history that is nationalistic and
    racist, the history they write will reflect that, and by
    discriminating in the choice of records, they will try to prove that
    position. Additionally, the records you find and use are products of
    the ideological and political beliefs of the period in which they were
    produced. It is for that reason that the question "What is the truth?"
    is the subject of such serious argument in historical scholarship. One
    thing is certain, though. The thing called "the truth" is not a thing,
    not a treasure that is buried somewhere in the ground and it is up to
    us to dig it up. For example, if a hundred years from now, you were to
    research the bombing of the Umut Kitabevi (Umut Publishing House) in
    Semdinli in 2005, you would find plenty of state documents asserting
    that the publishing house had been bombed by the PKK. [Translator's
    note: The bookstore was bombed by army officers, but law enforcement
    forces produced some documents to claim that it was the PKK that
    bombed the bookstore.]

    Keeping these two things in mind, nevertheless the place to start is
    the historic records. You have no other choice. The important thing is
    to maintain a critical eye when examining any particular document or
    body of documents. First of all, in order to defend your thesis, you
    need to present a series of records that is both comprehensive and
    widespread. Secondly, there should be a continuous "balance and
    control" relationship between the records you are presenting and the
    argument you are trying to make. This is precisely what makes history
    a social science. The use of deep and varied sources of material along
    with total honesty are the two crucial elements of historical study.

    Q: How important are the records in this book?

    A: They are the records of a government and a party that managed to
    deport and kill Armenians in 1915. For the most part, they consist of
    coded telegrams that were sent by the Ministry of the Interior to the
    regional offices. When you consider the difficulty of communication in
    that era through postal services and the like, the importance of these
    records is even less in doubt. In order to maintain high volume and
    speedy communications with the regions, the government [at that time]
    had established a special bureau and by way of that office managed to
    send short and frank orders to the regional offices. For this reason,
    these records provide a primary source of information about a party
    and a state that planned a deportation and killings.

    Q: Is it possible to state that, in view of the records which the
    book brings to light, there is no longer any doubt that what happened
    was a genocide?

    A: Yes, we can comfortably assert that in light of these documents,
    the thesis that what was experienced in 1915 does not fit within the
    definition of genocide from 1948 is no longer credible and can be
    dismissed. The officials of the Turkish government, who view the
    Ottoman records as the only reliable source, will see that our
    government records also show that the Union and Progress party
    followed a policy that endeavored to destroy the Armenians.
    Nevertheless, there are those who will deny this, and they will
    continue to deny it. There are many people today, still, who do not
    believe that the Jews were annihilated by the Nazis. I need to add
    this: In Turkey, particularly among those who defend the official
    state position and who claim to be historians, you will hear extremely
    ignorant comments like "Where is the document to show genocide? Prove
    it." Genocide does not have [is not proved with] a single document.
    The holocaust against the Jews didn't consist of a document here and a
    document there. What history and the social sciences do, or should do,
    is to illustrate the chain of events by way of an accumulated ball of
    knowledge from as detailed a record of documents as can be produced.
    As the documents which I published show, how to label the events that
    are described is a conclusion that you make based upon the
    documentation. In other words, genocide is identified by a certain
    picture that is revealed. You give the picture that name, which is why
    the picture you present has to be created by way of hundreds of tiny
    pieces of information. As I state in my book, in trying to understand
    and describe what occurred in 1915, I did not have a special purpose
    to "prove" genocide. I find this kind of approach to be deficient and
    wrong and more properly the duty of a prosecutor or judge. However,
    after the publication of these documents, I know that those who claim
    that what occurred in 1915 cannot be called a genocide do not have
    much more to say.

    Q: Almost all of the documents you obtained reveal that the action,
    in your words "to cleanse Anatolia of Armenians," was taken by the
    personal orders of Talat Pasha through the party apparatus, not the
    state government. Could this be the start of a new period for the
    Armenian problem?

    A: It absolutely should start a new period. Still, you need to
    remember that these telegrams were sent to the regional offices by
    Talat Pasha under the aegis of the Ministry of the Interior. While
    some of the telegrams bear his signature, others do not. Those were
    signed by the director of the office. These are state documents, not
    party documents. Nevertheless, when it comes to 1915, I believe and
    defend the notion that it is extremely important to make the
    distinction between state and party. As much as the state was taken
    over by the [Union and Progress] party, the same party which defended
    a dictatorship had rendered many of the government functions impotent.
    Every action that the party took was taken by way of government
    channels. Still, within governmental organs, there were points of
    resistance against what the Party was doing. If you make a state-party
    distinction, you begin to see and understand that there were very many
    honest state officials during that period, who resisted and opposed
    the murders committed by the Union and Progress party. In fact, -some
    of the records are the results of the efforts of some honest state
    officials to have the events recorded within state documents.

    Q: What sort of results, both negative and positive, can be expected
    if Turkey acknowledges the Armenian genocide?

    A: There isn't a single state that I know of or recognize that has
    been harmed by acknowledging past wrongdoings. Is there any country
    that you can name which was beset with problems because it faced its
    history? None! Quite the contrary, those regimes that had tried to
    cover up history, that had denied the cruelties and injustices that
    occurred in their past, ended up facing very serious problems and were
    even demolished. Turkey will only mature and gather praise once it has
    accepted a historical injustice. A Turkey that manages to face the
    historical injustices of its past will be able to take its deserved
    place among world nations with greater ease. So acceptance of the
    injustices in the past will not only not produce any negative result,
    it will do the opposite.

    I would like to add that there isn't just one way to face history
    and acknowledge an injustice. I would like to point out here that
    there is a difference between scholarship and politics. As a social
    scientist you may not be very convincing if, in light of all the
    records and information available, you use some term other than
    "genocide" to identify the events of 1915, but a government has many
    alternatives at its disposal when confronting history and
    acknowledging historic injustices. At the top of the list would be to
    stop referring to those who discuss it as "traitors," to stop killing
    them or dragging them through criminal prosecutions. Freedom of
    thought and democracy are the preconditions for acknowledging one's
    history. Secondly, you will need to develop a language that describes
    what occurred as morally unacceptable. A language that denounces and
    condemns murders is absolutely crucial. After that, in harmony with
    this new language, you need to take some steps that heal this
    injustice, that work towards fixing it. Here there are dozens, if not
    hundreds, of ways to go about this. Our politicians need to see that
    the matter isn't just about getting stuck on one single word. They
    need to approach the problem from a rich and wide net of
    possibilities.

    Q: If we look at the matter from the perspective of the Diaspora...in
    light of these new found documents, what kinds of steps might they
    take?

    A: There is a very misguided belief in Turkey. Unfortunately, both
    the state and politicians as well as some progressive and democratic
    intellectuals spread this mistaken belief and information. According
    to them, the Armenian Diaspora consists of a uniform, monolithic
    block, and there are some serious differences between the Diaspora and
    the state of Armenia. According to the beliefs of those who hold this
    position, the real problem is with the Diaspora; the Armenians of
    Armenia take a different position on things. This is simply not true.
    There is no singular, homogeneous, monolithic Diaspora , nor are there
    any serious differences between the Diaspora and Armenia regarding
    this subject. The Armenians of the Diaspora are as diverse in opinion
    as Turkey is divided into thousands of positions. ...Among them there
    are dozens of opinions and positions. I believe that my book in
    Turkish will not only positively affect Armenian circles but also will
    have a positive effect in increasing the numbers of those in Turkey
    who will want to resolve our differences in a peaceful and brotherly
    way through direct contact.

    Q: At the end of the book you state, "What we need is to recognize
    the reality that we are face to face with an action that is morally,
    conscientiously unacceptable and to develop a language that expresses
    that." What do you mean by this new language?

    A: The language of conflict differs from the language of friendship,
    mutual respect and peace. The language that dominates the
    administration and mainstream media in Turkey today is one that views
    the Armenians as the enemy, as a traitor and the Other. It's a racist
    and aggressive language. The administration and mainstream media
    continue to conduct the discourse around what happened in 1915 with a
    wartime mindset. For that reason, historians like me, who think
    critically, are branded as traitors, and they organize campaigns
    against us. Hrant Dink was murdered as a direct result of this
    language and this mindset.

    First of all, we need to put an end to this wartime mindset and to
    this aggressive language. There are many within Armenian circles who
    see the problem with the same point of view and use the same
    aggressive language. We have to establish and develop a humane
    language that doesn't view Armenians and Turks as enemies, which
    doesn't brand the other as a traitor, doesn't demean the other, and
    views Armenians and Turks with respect. Armenians and Turks will be
    able to construct their future upon this foundation of mutual respect
    and friendship.

    Q: Another of way asking this is, what steps need to be taken so
    that the matter in question is resolved through democratic means?

    A: Prior to anything else happening, the borders between the two
    countries need to be opened without any preconditions, and diplomatic
    relations should be initiated. It is very difficult to explain how
    Turkey can have no objection to maintaining diplomatic relations with
    Syria, a country with a population of 10 million which has protected
    Abdullah Öcalan for years and depicts Hatay as falling within their
    own borders, and yet reject diplomatic relations with Armenia, a
    country of 3 million. First unconditional diplomatic relations, then
    the opening of the borders, and then the rest will come. Additionally,
    Turkey has to see that this matter isn't just about history. Turkey
    has to see that it has everything to do with how [Turkey] behaves
    towards minorities today.

    Q: How do you evaluate the Hrant Dink assassination's effect on
    resolving the Armenian issue? In particular, would you characterize
    the way society embraced Dink after the assassination, and the way it
    lead to openly discussing the Armenian issue, as a positive thing?

    A: Hrant Dink was the most beautiful gift that Turkey could present
    to Armenia and the Diaspora. Hrant was the most important person who
    could bring these two countries, these two peoples, together. When we
    were in Yerevan in 2005, I used to tease Hrant that if I were the
    Turkish government, I'd have him appointed the symbolic, spiritual
    ambassador to Armenia. Turkey killed its ambassador; it broke the
    olive branch that it could have extended. What's worse is that the
    ones who broke this olive branch are organized within the police and
    gendarmerie forces. Those officials who knew about the assassination,
    who planned and directed it, have not only not been punished, they
    have been rewarded and promoted.

    I can't state enough how important it is for society to embrace
    Hrant Dink. Within him they [Turkish society] have discovered a
    dynamic, a potential to bring these two nations together. Both the
    Armenians in America, who are cursed as "Diaspora" in Turkey, and the
    people in Istanbul shed tears for Hrant. Hrant brought everyone with a
    heart together. He's become the symbol for what needs to be done to
    resolve this problem. We must build a monument for him and memorialize
    him.

    Q: Could the policy taken by the AKP (Justice and Development Party
    of Turkey, now in control of the Administration) to act in harmony
    with an EU framework be a positive step toward resolving this problem?

    A: I don't believe that the AKP has any thoughts on this subject.
    They don't give even the slightest indication of having any thoughts.
    Either they don't know anything about the subject, or they think it is
    enough to continue promoting the traditional lies. In fact, if the AKP
    actually followed their Islamic roots, they could make some serious
    headway on the subject. There's only one thing I could ask of the AKP,
    and that's to take their Islamic roots seriously.

    ************************************** *************************************

    6. The Candidates: Serge Sargsian believes that Armenia's future lies
    in a knowledge-based society

    * Promises fight against poverty

    * Touts record as defense minister

    by Maria Titizian

    YEREVAN -- As the current prime minister and President Robert
    Kocharian's designated successor, presidential candidate Serge Azati
    Sargsian promises stability and continuity as well as reforms.

    He is running on a record of seven years of double-digit economic
    growth. The portion of the population living in poverty has fallen
    from more than half in 1999 to 27 percent last year. Average wages
    have increased more than fivefold in the same period, from $40 a month
    to $220. Armenia's exports have increased from $234 million to over
    $1.1 billion, and imports from $802 million to more than $3 billion.

    The economic reforms of the past have worked, he argues, and it is
    now time for "second-generation" reforms to "create the best
    conditions for business and investment."

    Mr. Sargsian's platform calls for internationally competitive tax
    and customs rates and policies. Where there is economic regulation, it
    should help business by establishing a level playing field and
    reducing risk. The platform calls for a focus on small and medium
    enterprises. For state-owned enterprises, it calls for better and more
    transparent management.

    For agriculture, Mr. Sargsian's platform calls for greater
    industrialization and the establishment of food processing plants to
    make produce available to distant markets.

    Mr. Sargsian believes Armenia can become the financial services
    leader in the region. "The Stockholm's Stock Exchange entering Armenia
    is graphic evidence of that," his platform says. Affordable mortgages
    and car loans as well as insurance are among the services called for
    in the platform.

    * Combating corruption

    Mr. Sargsian acknowledges in his platform that "corruption, the shadow
    economy, and unequal competitive conditions" are serious problems for
    Armenia. "One of the key issues of our policy will be efficiently and
    consistently struggling against bribery and corruption," his platform
    states.

    "We will strive for a new Armenian mindset that will not tolerate
    the phenomenon of corruption. Personal contacts must not be the basis
    of our system and whoever promotes bribery will not be considered as a
    comrade, friend, or fellow party member but as a law breaker."

    When asked by the Armenian Reporter's Emil Sanamyan in an October
    22, 2007, interview in Washington, about "the widespread perception
    that certain figures in government and in business" can act with
    impunity, Mr. Sargsian was unwilling to acknowledge that this is a
    major problem. He had said, "There is a difference between perception
    and reality. I state with all responsibility that today in Armenia
    there are no individuals or groups that are above the law."

    Mr. Sargsian continued, "The tax collection targets that our
    government has set for 2008 will also help dispel such perceptions. If
    we are able to meet our targets it will become clear to everyone that
    no so-called oligarch is above the law.

    "We have a complex approach to corruption that includes introduction
    of stricter legal punishments for economic crimes, such as tax
    evasion; higher salaries for state officials; more transparent
    administrative mechanisms. Perhaps in this issue we are lacking a
    public relations campaign that would showcase punishments for corrupt
    officials.

    "That is not to say that we do not have shortcomings, we have plenty
    of them. And I appreciate all criticism of such shortcomings."

    * Europe as a neighbor

    There are differences in foreign policy between Mr. Sargsian and the
    man he hopes to succeed. Mr. Kocharian has been reluctant to endorse
    Turkey's bid for European Union membership, saying only that the
    accession process could work to Armenia's advantage.

    "We have an interest in having as neighbors states that are more
    predictable, more developed, more democratic," Mr. Kocharian stated at
    a joint press conference with then-President Jacques Chirac of France
    in Yerevan on September 30, 2006. "We see no danger to ourselves in
    the process of [Turkey's] admission; perhaps the contrary. Of course,
    we want that during this process the issues that concern us also find
    their solutions. And that the system of values, the belief in open
    borders that exists in Europe apply also to Turkey's policy -- not
    just at the final stage of Turkey's admission, if that happens, but
    from the start."

    In a December 11, 2007, interview with the Financial Times, Mr.
    Sargsian stated his position. Under the headline, "Armenia Backs
    Turkey in EU," the Times reports:

    "'I think it would be good for us if Turkey's desire to become a
    member of the European Union were satisfied. Maybe the problems
    between us could find a solution within a EU framework,' said Mr
    Sargsian, ... adding he hoped Turkey would produce proposals for
    improving ties with Armenia.... Referring to Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
    Turkey's prime minister, he said: 'I don't think it's correct to say
    he's not committed to establishing relations with Armenia. We'll see
    what happens in the future.'

    "Mr Sargsian, describing himself as optimistic that Armenia and
    Turkey would make progress, asked: 'After all, what do we gain, what
    do the Turks gain, from the present situation? Even in the time of the
    cold war, when Armenia was part of the Soviet Union and Turkey was in
    NATO, we used to have a certain relationship with Turkey. A railway
    line was built through Armenia to Turkey. A high-voltage electricity
    line was built between the two countries. Why should my wish for
    relations not be logical now?'"

    Mr. Sargsian also rejects Armenian territorial claims against
    Turkey. In his October interview with the Reporter, he said he was
    "surprised by conclusions of certain second-tier Turkish officials"
    that recognition of the Armenian Genocide "would lead to some other
    claims. This is surprising, because it is unclear how one would lead
    to the other. How can any territorial or other claims be realized
    anyway?" he asked.

    On the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, however, Mr. Sargsian's
    position appears to be much the same as that of President Kocharian:
    an international status that would formalize the nonsubordination of
    the Nagorno-Karabakh republic to Azerbaijan and provide for a direct
    overland border with Armenia and international guarantees of
    Karabakh's security.

    The two, along with the late Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsyan,
    resisted a unilateral territorial compromise advocated by
    then-President Levon Ter-Petrossian in 1997 that did not address
    Karabakh's status. Mr. Ter-Petrossian, who insisted on it, was forced
    to resign the presidency.

    * Qualified specialists

    "The urgency of economic development in the 21st century is to form a
    knowledge-based society. The main drivers are ideas and discoveries
    and the ability to introduce these into everyday life sooner rather
    than later," Mr. Sargsian's platform argues. It advocates a
    restructuring of the system of science and education in Armenia.
    "Knowledge will be the only stable currency; therefore, a reliable way
    of enrichment is to get a good education," his platform argues.

    At a public rally in the province of Kotayk on February 10, Mr.
    Sargsian said, "I cannot see how Armenia is to develop without
    knowledge and advanced research."

    At the same rally he added, "I am going to wage a deadly fight
    against poverty by ensuring that our plants and factories are
    rehabilitated from idleness. Our children should live in a society
    healthier than the one we live in now and the government should avail
    itself of every citizen's contribution. My team will be a squad of
    professionals who will be set the task of making Armenia the country
    of dreams of any Armenian so that we are quoted as an example by other
    nations."

    Mr. Sargsian emphasizes the maturity and professionalism of his
    team, in contrast to the teams put forward by all his opponents, and
    especially that led by Mr. Ter-Petrossian. Although in the campaign
    for the May 2007 parliamentary elections, Mr. Sargsian had called the
    Armenian Revolutionary Federation's pledge to double pensions a "fairy
    tale," in the run-up to the presidential election Mr. Sargsian's
    government pushed through a 65 percent raise in pensions. He now
    promises further increases to "ensure a decent life for pensioners."

    Mr. Sargsian's campaign also notes his experience as Armenia's
    longest-serving defense minister, and the progress the Armenian armed
    forces have made under his leadership, arguing that of all candidates
    in the field he would make the best commander-in-chief.

    * * *

    * Serge Sargsian

    Serge Sargsian was born on June 30, 1954, in Stepanakert in a family
    originally from the village of Tegh in the Goris district of Armenia.
    Following two years of army service, Mr. Sargsian graduated from the
    philology department of Yerevan State University in 1979; concurrently
    he worked as a welder at the Yerevan electro-technical plant. From
    1979 to 1988, Mr. Sargsian worked in the Communist Party structures of
    Nagorno-Karabakh rising to the post of senior aid to the region's
    first secretary, Genrikh Poghosian, in 1988.

    From 1989 to 1993 Mr. Sargsian was in charge of the Self-Defense
    Forces of Nagorno-Karabakh, playing one of the leading roles in the
    movement for Karabakh's freedom, mobilizing broad support for the
    Armenian war effort and ensuring the survival of Karabakh's
    population. From 1990 to 1995, Mr. Sargsian was concurrently an
    elected member of Armenia's Supreme Council (Parliament).

    In 1993, Mr. Sargsian was invited to join the Armenian government,
    first as defense minister in 1993-95, then as director for (and later
    minister of) National Security in 1995-99, and combining the latter
    post with that of minister of interior between November 1996 and June
    1999. From 1999 to 2000 Mr. Sargsian was President Robert Kocharian's
    chief of staff and secretary of the National Security Council. He
    retained the latter post as he returned to serve as minister of
    defense from 2000 to 2007. Since April 2007 Mr. Sargsian has been
    Armenia's prime minister.

    After joining the ruling Republican Party in July 2006, Mr. Sargsian
    led the party to victory in May 2007 parliamentary elections.
    Concurrently, Mr. Sargsian heads the Yerevan State University alumni
    council and the Armenian Chess Federation.

    For his service to the country, Mr. Sargsian was awarded with the
    order of Golden Eagle and the title of the Hero of Artsakh, the order
    of the Combat Cross of the first degree, and the order of Tigran the
    Great.

    Married since 1983, Mr. Sargsian and his wife Rita have two
    daughters, Anush and Satenik, and a granddaughter Mariam. Mr. Sargsian
    has two younger brothers: Levon, a veteran diplomat and former
    Ambassador to Syria, and Aleksandr, a businessman elected to
    parliament last year.

    ******************************************* ********************************

    7. Shushi Revival Fund is set to undertake a fundamental makeover of the city

    by Betty Panossian-Ter Sarkissian

    YEREVAN -- Throughout the night of January 18-19 a telebridge was
    broadcast live on Armenia's National TV channel uniting Shushi with
    Bethlehem, Yerevan, Moscow, and the Armenian diaspora.

    Organized by the Shushi Revival Fund, the Shushi-Bethlehem
    telebridge was the first of its kind in Armenia. It weaved together
    information on the historical and cultural significance of Shushi;
    articulated visions of its potential success; discussed projects
    developed by the Shushi Revival Fund, as well as calls to donate to
    the Fund.

    In the days following the telebridge, the Fund announced in a press
    release that approximately $5.7 million worth of donations and
    investments had been made to the projects developed by the Fund.

    Shushi Revival is a non-profit public fund that was established in
    the spring of 2006 through the personal initiative of Yervand
    Zakharian, the mayor of Yerevan. The Fund brought together a number of
    intellectuals from Armenia, Karabakh, and the diaspora, including Zori
    Balayan, Levon Ananyan, Sos Sargsyan, Haroutioun Armenian, Hilda
    Choboyan, Haroutioun Khachatryan as members of its board of trustees,
    headed by the mayor of Yerevan himself.

    The Shushi Revival Fund states that through the donations from its
    benefactors, it aspires to return Shushi to its ancient status as a
    cultural, social, and spiritual center. The mission of the Fund puts
    at its axis the renovation and preservation of historic buildings and
    reconstruction of the city, including the ancient fortress.

    "We want to accentuate the historic importance of the city; place
    Shushi back on the crossroads of civilizations, and make it a tourist
    destination," said Marina Grigoryan, the press secretary of the Fund
    to the Armenian Reporter.

    Shushi now has its own new city plan developed by Armenian-American
    architect Seta Yaghoubian, and where new specific districts have been
    added, "preserving the traditional urban characteristics of the
    ancient city."

    Another project is being realized at a cost of 55 million Dram
    (around $180,000.) The project will help to provide tourists with the
    opportunity to have a closer look at traditional Armenian arts and
    crafts, through crafts centers open for the public.

    The fund has two more primary tasks to accomplish in 2008.

    Mkrtich Karapetyan, the program manager of the Fund said that the
    improvement and renewal of the water and sewage system in Shushi is a
    primary objective, adding that the water supply and sewage system in
    Shushi is very old and does not function properly.

    The installment of the new water system in Shushi is planned to
    begin in the coming months. According to cost estimations carried a
    few months ago, the renewal of the water system of the city will cost
    around $2 million. Part of the donations will serve that end.

    Another long-awaited project is the establishment of a printing
    house in February. "The printing house will create stable jobs for ten
    employees," said Mr. Karapetyan.

    Mr. Karapetyan hopes that the printing house will receive orders
    from Karabakh, as well as from Armenia, "because we are certain that
    the printing house will be the best equipped in Karabakh and will have
    enough potential to compete with those in Armenia."

    The next project of the Fund is the restoration of the famous
    historic Green Pharmacy. The aim of this project is "to provide
    medicine with reduced prices," explained Mr. Karapetyan. In a city
    presently short of a single pharmacy, the Green Pharmacy functioned in
    the 19th century.

    * Finding owners for investment projects

    Grigor Hovhannisyan, the executive director of the Fund emphasized
    that "Shushi Revival" is not a charity organization. He said,"We are
    ... creating the business and urban infrastructure of Shushi."
    According to the executive director Shushi Revival is a
    self-sufficient fund, which can allow itself to draw plans and create
    investment packages for the development of the city's infrastructure.

    Over the past two years, Shushi Revival has fashioned several
    investment projects and packages. Mr. Hovhannisyan did not reveal the
    exact number of the investment packages but did say that each project
    was worth around $1-2 million.

    Mr. Hovhannisyan did however elaborate on the quantity and nature of
    the investments. Thus, the renovation plan of one of the old quarters
    of the city contains around 35 business projects. A big-scale business
    project developed by the Fund is the restoration of Nataghan's
    Palace, one of Shushi's historical buildings. The implementation of
    the whole project, that of restoring the building and turning it into
    a business and tourist destination complete with shops, offices, and
    cafés will cost around $3.5 million.

    "We first design the investment package and then try to find
    tbuyers," said Mr. Hovhannisyan. He added that the Fund simply
    facilitates and accelerates the process of investing in Shushi.

    "Currently we are working with investors that have already financed
    investment packages," said Mr. Hovhannisyan.

    In the past year, the Fund has researched monuments and historical
    buildings in Shushi, and has sketched plans for their preservation and
    restoration, as well as developed business projects related to them.

    Most of the $5.7 million announced during the telebridge was the
    value of investment packages bought by investors, Mr. Hovhannisyan
    said. He noted that during the days and weeks following the
    telebridge, the whole package of investment offers grew bigger.

    Prior to the telebridge, the Fund had teamed up with various
    communities in the diaspora, organizing business forums and presenting
    the investment projects. The Fund had focused its attention on the new
    diaspora, namely Armenian communities in Russia and former Soviet
    countries, because the "Armenia Fund has operated with the classical
    diaspora, and there are huge capitals accumulated in those countries
    waiting to be invested," explained Mr. Hovhannisyan.

    "Roughly stated, besides presenting the national, historical, and
    cultural values of Shushi, this telebridge was also a marketing space
    for us," said Mr. Hovhannisyan. In the upcoming months, the Fund will
    do further marketing of the investment proposals in the communities of
    the diaspora.

    *************************************** ************************************

    8. Flying over the fire for Diyarendarach

    by Betty Panossian-Ter Sarkissian

    YEREVAN -- St. Hovhannes Church in Yerevan was cheerful on the
    snow-white afternoon on February 13.

    Young couples, hand in hand had come out of the church and were
    among the crowd gathered in the courtyard. They were celebrating
    Diyarendarach or Derndez as it is called in Armenia.

    Derndez in Armenia is the folk celebration of the Christian holiday
    Diyarendarach ("Come forward to the Lord" or "I saw the Lord")
    celebrated on February 14. It marks the presentation of the
    forty-day-old baby Jesus to the house of worship. The Bible accounts
    that when, in accordance to the Jewish tradition, baby Jesus was taken
    to the cathedral, Old Simon came forward to meet the Lord's Son. He
    blessed the child and asked God that he may die in peace because his
    eyes had seen the Messiah.

    However, the Armenian celebrations of Derndez start on the eve of
    February 14, when the holiday has already commenced according to the
    church calendar. On that day, the Armenian Church also performs the
    traditional ceremony of blessing fire and candles.

    Toward the end of the church service, a blessed candle is lit from
    the altar lantern and a procession takes it out to the courtyard where
    the fire of Derndez is blessed and lit.

    While the flames of the fire fly high into the air the priests bless
    the believers and light the fire with the blessed candle brought from
    the church. Newlyweds and engaged couples walk around the fire three
    times and when the flames start to die off, the boldest jump over the
    fire. Then people light their candles and lanterns from the fire and
    take them to their homes to kindle their hearths.

    Derndez has a special place in the hearts of the Armenians. In the
    diaspora it is the day to present newborns to the altar, following the
    example of baby Jesus. However, in Armenia, this holiday relates more
    to couples and the concept of family. Many young couples have waited
    all year long for this day to come to renew their vows of love and
    family bonding.

    "We will walk around the fire three times, take the blessed fire
    with us to our home and celebrate our Derndez with our friends and
    family," said Maneh, 21, and Dainel, 27, who had gotten married last
    August.

    "We will jump over the fire," said Anush and Hrand, both 23, married
    in December. "The blessed fire will clean us from all our sins, and
    then we will have a good kef!"

    * Remnants of paganism, a symbol of Christ

    Fire was the object of worship for the ancient Armenians who had a
    whole month dedicated to the god of light and fire, Mihr. Making open
    fires and dancing around it, they celebrated the feasts in Mehegan
    (modern day February), the coldest month of the Armenian winter.

    However, in Christianity, the pagan worship of fire had to be
    altered. On Derndez, the Armenian Church does not worship the fire.
    but rather sees it as a symbol for the light Jesus Christ had spread
    out into the world.

    Father Shmavon clarified that: "Jesus is the light and we believe
    that every kind of light and fire emblems Jesus Christ and the Holy
    Spirit."

    The Armenian Church welcomes all folk traditions, which do not
    contradict its religion. "People tend to express their joy on holidays
    in certain ways, and the church encourages its people to be happy.
    Christianity is a religion of bliss," the priest said.

    Karekin II, the Catholicos of All Armenians has declared
    Diyarendarach as a day of blessing newlyweds and families.

    All the new families that have been wed at church during the year
    preceding the holiday go to the church they were married in. On
    February 14, following mass a special ceremony blessing the newlywed
    couples takes place.

    The return of these new families to their churches also demonstrates
    the potential growth of the family, said Father Shmavon. "Some couples
    expect children, and some even come to the church with their first
    newborns."

    The parents of six-month old Emma had done just that andbrought
    their baby to her first Derndez. "We wanted to bring our child to the
    church," said Irina, 23, and Hovhannes, 32.

    ********************************************* ******************************

    9. The presidential campaign heats up

    * Vahan Hovhannesian

    "If I consider myself a free man, a strong man, it is because there is
    something in my life. Those who do not understand where my
    self-confidence, determination and strength come from, should remember
    one word: Dashnaktsutiun."

    These are the sentiments Vahan Hovhanessian expressed at the
    February 8 rally in Yerevan and one that he continues to carry to the
    regions in Armenia.

    On February 11 the ARF presidential candidate was in the region of
    Ararat starting in the town of Masis. He traveled on to Vedi where
    there was a protest being staged by hundreds of farmers against the
    Borodino food processing plant. The plant, which buys tomatoes from
    farmers to process has failed to even pay for the tomatoes it bought
    last year. Mr. Hovhanessian met with plant managers and when he came
    back out he told the protesters that he had been able to resolve some
    of the issues outright and promised to follow the events as they
    unfolded between plant owners and the farmers. The Armenian Reporter
    has learned that on February 13, many of the farmers received their
    money from the plant.

    While addressing the crowds in Vedi, Mr. Hovhanessian made the point
    that all of them there had come of their own free will and not been
    forced to come -- unlike other campaigns.

    Mr. Hovhanessian said that Armenians find themselves between two
    extremes -- the old and the current regimes. "The old regime are those
    who want to get power back by planting hatred, by ruining everything,
    and returning the territories. The current regime are those who say
    that it would be good if things remain as they are. Both are wrong,"
    he said.

    On February 12 the presidential candidate visited the region of Lori
    where he met with supporters in the town of Spitak. Mr. Hovhanessian
    said that he was pleased to see construction but that the conditions
    in which some people continue to live is unacceptable.

    He spoke at length about the economic inequality and uneven rate of
    development in the country. Mr. Hovhanessian expounded the importance
    of encouraging production and export, which would help create new
    jobs. He promised to eliminate monopolies and ensure freedom but he
    said freedom would come only when an individual is capable of feeding
    his or her family through his or her own labor. On February 14 the
    presidential candidate and his team were in Vayots Dzor region meeting
    voters.

    The Supreme Council of the ARF on February 13 issued a statement
    regarding the tense political atmosphere in the country. The statement
    said that although every election can lead to polarization "it is
    inadmissible when the election campaign moves out of the realm of
    civilized behavior." The ARF believes that the "personal insults of
    candidates, threats, hostility and mutual hatred have reached
    dangerous levels."

    * Serge Sargsian

    "I am prepared to step forward with you every day"

    Prime Minister Serge Sargsian was in the region of Gegharkunik on
    February 11 meeting with voters. He continued to emphasize the
    position that while the citizens of Armenia were forced to endure the
    cold and dark years, the country is now prospering. As an example he
    said, "Now the republic has a natural gas network and we are also
    exporting energy."

    While in the town of Gavar he said, "I state that I am responsible
    for the good and the bad; I am responsible that there are still
    families in the country living in bad conditions. But I am also
    responsible that we have a strong army, double-digit economic growth.
    I am also responsible for the future of Armenia and I am sure that you
    will give your vote to the program of our people."

    On February 12 the presidential candidate traveled to the region of
    Aragatsotn and while he was in the town of Aparan he spoke about
    combating poverty. He said, "Armenia was ruled by people who could
    have led the country along the path of development. However, their
    untalented ruling resulted in the crisis faced by the country."

    While Mr. Sargsian was on the campaign trail, there was much
    controversy surrounding people from his party. According to Arminfo
    Mr. Sargsian's Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) expelled Sasoun
    Mikaelyan, a member of parliament from the party. Mr. Mikaelyan had
    publicly stated his support of presidential candidate Levon
    Ter-Petrossian on February 9 during the former president's public
    rally in Yerevan. Member of Parliament Hakob Hakobian, otherwise known
    as Ledi Hakob had also thrown his support behind Mr. Ter-Petrossian,
    along with former member of Parliament Myasnik Malkhasyan. Mr.
    Hagopian's business investments in the district of Malatia have been
    shut down and are now under investigation by authorities.

    * Levon Ter-Petrossian

    Presidential contender Levon Ter-Petrossian had applied to the
    Constitutional Court on February 8, invoking Article 52 of the
    Constitution, under which elections can be postponed if a candidate
    faces "insurmountable obstacles." In his suit Mr. Ter-Petrossian
    claimed that negative stories about him on broadcast media had created
    such obstacles for him. On Monday, February 11, the Constitutional
    Court, after deliberating for four hours, dismissed his claim, saying
    that it did not find insurmountable obstacles. However, after issuing
    the final verdict, Gagik Harutyunian, chair of the court, stated that
    although they found the obstacles not to be insurmountable,
    Ter-Petrossian's complaints are "legitimate and should be addressed by
    the National Commission on TV and Radio, the Central Electoral
    Commission, and lower courts."

    On February 12 news began circulating that Levon Ter-Petrossian had
    gone to Moscow a day earlier for high-level meetings with Russian
    officials. There was speculation that the former president had met
    with Dimitri Medvedev, Russia's first deputy prime minister who is
    expected to succeed Vladimir Putin in the Russian presidential
    campaign slated for March 2, 2008. However the Russian RIA Novosti
    news agency stated that Mr. Ter-Petrossian had not met with Mr.
    Medvedev. It appears that Mr. Ter-Petrossian had instead met with
    Leonid Gozman, a deputy chairman of the board of the Union of
    Right-Wing Forces Party.

    On February 12 a group of protesters held a demonstration in front
    of Mr. Ter-Petrossian's campaign headquarters. The former president
    came out and angrily demanded that the police disperse the protesters,
    but police, noting that they were peaceful and not disrupting traffic
    declined to intervene.

    Later that day unknown assailants attacked Krist Gasparyan, head of
    Mr. Ter-Petrossian's Kanaker-Zeitun campaign office and son of the
    late Manuk Gasparyan, who had been leader of the Democratic Path
    party.

    Also on February 12, Raffi Hovanissian's Heritage Party announced
    that it would be supporting Levon Ter-Petrossian in his bid for the
    presidency of Armenia. Press Secretary Hovsep Khurshudyan and member
    of parliament Vartan Khatchatrian of the Heritage Party at a news
    conference stated that the party's ruling board approved the decision
    to support the former president by a simple majority. According to
    Armenpress, Mr Khatchatrian said that this decision was made "after
    hours of heated debates with a divergence of opinions." Admitting that
    there are ideological differences between the Heritage Party and
    Ter-Petrossian's Armenian National Movement, Mr. Khatchatrian
    nonetheless said they believed that his comeback has played a big role
    in the development of democracy in the country.

    * Artur Baghdasarian

    At a press conference on February 14, Heghine Bisharian of Country of
    Law party and campaign manager of presidential contender Artur
    Baghdasarian accused former president Levon Ter-Petrossian of
    colluding with the authorities to divide the opposition. Ms. Bisharian
    was referring to an article printed in Haykakan Zhamanak, a
    pro-Ter-Petrossian daily, which stated that the former president at a
    rally in the region of Siunik said that if Artur Baghdasarian doesn't
    join him then he will find himself outside of the political process.
    According to the daily, the ploy would play out in a way that would
    secure Mr. Sargsian's victory. With the aid of vote-rigging Mr.
    Baghdasarian would garner enough votes to force a second round against
    Serge Sargsian. The usually unreliable paper claimed that Mr.
    Baghdasarian and other presidential candidates would accept the
    outcome of the first round and in the second round "it would be simply
    a technical issue to ensure Serge Sargsian's victory." The paper went
    on to allege that Mr. Baghdasarian and Mr. Sargsian had agreed on this
    scenario. The paper alleged that Mr. Baghdasarian agreed to proceed in
    this fashion after Mr. Sargsian's aides said that they had videotapes
    that could potentially discredit him and his family.

    Ms. Bisharian did say that both Mr. Baghdasarian and Mr.
    Ter-Petrossian were negotiating regarding a possible union. However
    the allegations made in Haykakan Zhamanak put an end to those talks.
    "In the evening they negotiate an alliance with us while in the
    morning publish slandering claims. This is difficult to explain. Our
    candidate has a steady electorate and his popularity is mounting day
    after day and we have actually no doubt that he will win the right to
    the run-off. If Ter-Petrosian wants the opposition candidate to be in
    the second round he should join us,' said Ms. Bisharian. She added
    that her party unequivocally condemns blackmail and appealed to all
    sides to "observe political correctness."

    ****************************** *********************************************

    10. Levon Ter-Petrossian's accusations are "immoral" Vartan Oskanian says

    YEREVAN -- Armenia's Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian appeared on
    Shant TV on February 12 to deny a claim by Levon Ter-Petrossian that
    the Armenian authorities were prepared to "sell" Meghri in exchange
    for Azerbaijan's recognition of Nagorno- Karabakh. At an election
    rally on February 9, Mr. Ter-Petrossian had made that claim and added
    that the murder, on October 27, 1999, of Prime Minister Vazgen
    Sargsyan and Speaker Karen Demirchian was connected to their
    opposition to this alleged plan.

    Mr. Oskanian denounced Mr. Ter-Petrossian's behavior in making such
    claims as "immoral" and said that the former president will apparently
    "stop at nothing" to realize his political ambitions.

    The pro-Ter-Petrossian daily Haykakan Zhamanak published the text of
    a document that called for the exchange with Azerbaijan of Meghri,
    which connects Armenia to Iran and separates Azerbaijan proper from
    its exclave of Nakhichevan, for Karabakh. Mr. Oskanian unequivocally
    stated that Meghri was never on the negotiating table. The host of
    the program, Nver Mnatsakanian, repeatedly attempted to have the
    minister say that it was part of the discussions. "The idea of the
    exchange of Meghri for Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to a retired U.S.
    diplomat Paul Goble, the roots of which are in the early 1990s. I
    clearly remember that in 1994 the proposed idea was discussed with the
    participation of the Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrossian, who
    stated at one of the meetings that the proposal could be interesting,
    if Armenia also gained the northern part of Nakhichevan. However, I do
    not contend that Ter-Petrossian was ready to exchange Meghri for
    Nagorno-Karabakh, do I?" asked the minister.

    Mr. Oskanian stated that during President Robert Kocharian's
    administration, five proposals on the settlement of the Karabakh
    conflict were presented by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. "I declare
    with all responsibility that in none of those proposals was there ever
    the mention of handing Meghri over to Azerbaijan. I should know as I
    was the chief negotiator from the Armenian side. We never held such
    talks," stressed Mr. Oskanian.

    According to Mr. Oskanian, during his time as foreign minister, many
    proposals and plans were presented by individual countries and
    organizations "I have many such proposals in my files, but that
    doesn't automatically mean that all of them become topics for
    negotiations," he said. "The Armenian side was so repulsed by such a
    proposal that after 2000 no one dared to forward this opinion
    anymore," the foreign minister stated.

    The minister also noted that Armenia has initiated numerous projects
    with Iran involving Meghri over the last 10 years.

    About the terrorist attack in the National Assembly in 1999, to
    which Mr. Ter-Petrossian keeps referring, Mr. Oskanian said, "Robert
    Kocharian and Vazgen Sargsyan enjoyed great relations. They last met
    shortly before the October 27 attack, I was there personally."

    "I can state with all certainty that after his resignation Levon
    Ter-Petrossian never met with Vazgen Sargsyan. Mentioning his name now
    is immoral," the minister said. "It is time to let the dead rest in
    peace and hold discussions among the living," Mr. Oskanian concluded.

    ************************************** *************************************

    11. Fire at the Justice Ministry

    YEREVAN -- In the early morning hours of February 9, a fire broke out
    in the building that houses the Justice Ministry of Armenia. According
    to the Fire Service of Armenia the preliminary cause of the fire was
    faulty electrical cable wiring in the attic of the building, which was
    built in the 1930s. The Office of the Prosecutor General and the Court
    of Cassation are in adjacent buildings, but did not sustain damage.
    According to Arminfo, 23 fire teams took part in extinguishing the
    fire, which took hours to put out.

    The press secretary of the Justice Ministry, Lana Mshetsyan, said no
    criminal case of public importance were housed at the ministry. This
    statement was to alleviate public and media speculation that the fire
    was a result of arson to destroy certain files before the presidential
    election. The press secretary did confirm, however, that all documents
    connected with the European Court were destroyed. Those files are
    under the supervision of the deputy justice minister, who is the
    appointed representative of Armenia at the European Court. Meanwhile,
    Ms. Mshetsyan said, 90 percent of the documents of the state registrar
    were saved.

    ****************************************** *********************************

    12. News Analysis: Armenia elections: Polls point to Sargsian victory

    * Ter-Petrossian's campaign adds intrigue

    by Emil Sanamyan

    WASHINGTON -- Armenia appears headed toward a contentious election on
    February 19, pitting Prime Minister Serge Sargsian against his main
    challenger, ex-President Levon Ter-Petrossian.

    Public opinion surveys, including those commissioned by an
    opposition-leaning newspaper, have consistently shown Mr. Sargsian,
    who also has the most organizational and financial strength, with a
    substantial advantage in public support.

    But over the past two weeks Mr. Ter-Petrossian appears to have made
    inroads into the Armenian political establishment, gaining enough
    momentum to make the outcome of the upcoming vote less predictable.

    * Campaigning and organizational strength

    While formally there are nine contenders in the upcoming elections,
    only four have run full-fledged national campaigns. In addition to Mr.
    Sargsian and Mr. Ter-Petrossian, the others in this field are former
    Parliament Speaker Artur Baghdasarian, and current Deputy Speaker
    Vahan Hovhannesian.

    All four candidates have held massive rallies around Armenia,
    although the support and organizational strength for the candidates
    appears uneven in different parts of the country.

    Benefiting from his de facto incumbency, Mr. Sargsian commands the
    strongest political machine comprised of the Republican (RPA) and
    Prosperous Armenia (PAP) parties, which hold a majority in parliament
    and have national outreach. RPA, PAP, as well as the United Labor and
    several smaller parties that support Mr. Sargsian cumulatively won
    nearly 53 percent of the vote in the May 2007 parliamentary elections.

    Mr. Ter-Petrossian in turn is also benefiting from his past
    incumbency, with his campaign run primarily by former government
    officials who retain political and economic influence around Armenia.
    He has also attracted the support of a number of small political
    parties that cumulatively won more than 14 percent of the vote last
    May.

    Mr. Hovhannisian and Mr. Baghdasarian are backed by their respective
    political parties -- the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, which won
    13 percent of the vote in May 2007, and the Country of Laws party,
    which secured 7 percent.

    The votes won by political parties last May can serve only as rough
    indicators of the starting organizational strength of the individual
    candidates. While Mr. Sargsian and Mr. Ter-Petrossian have polled at
    near the levels of the past combined performance of the parties now
    backing them (respectively 53 and 14 percent), Mr. Baghdasarian has
    been polling better than Mr. Hovannisian.

    * Polls and public support

    Armenian opposition parties have criticized the integrity of the
    public opinion polls that all give Mr. Sargsian a strong lead. But
    they have not published any alternative polls that could contradict
    such findings. And polls are sufficiently consistent to provide a
    general picture of the relative popularity of individual candidates,
    more so than turnout at campaign rallies.

    Although certain opinion polls, such as those commissioned by Mr.
    Sargsian's campaign (through Sociometer) as well as by media entities
    favoring Mr. Sargsian, may raise legitimate concerns about accuracy,
    it is harder to allege a pro-government bias in polling funded
    respectively by the U.S. government and Aravot newspaper, which
    editorially supports Mr. Ter-Petrossian.

    The nationwide polls since January have placed Mr. Sargsian's
    popularity anywhere between 43 (U.S.-funded) to 50 (Armenian Public
    TV-funded) to 67 (Sargsian campaign-funded) percent, with more recent
    polls showing an increase in support.

    These findings are generally backed by the polling commissioned by
    Aravot, and conducted in Yerevan only. Based on six opinion polls
    involving 663 respondents each, conducted at monthly intervals since
    last September, Aravot's polling (see table) puts Mr. Sargsian well
    ahead even among the capital's voters -- who, unlike voters in most of
    the provinces, have traditionally favored challengers over incumbents.

    According to this survey, while many voters in Yerevan would not
    state their preferences, the ex-president enjoys the highest
    "anti"-rating: that is, when voters were asked to name the candidate
    "whom they would never vote for" about 30 percent named Mr.
    Ter-Petrossian, and less than 10 percent Mr. Sargsian. According to
    these findings, Mr. Ter-Petrossian would also do worse than two other
    main challengers would against Mr. Sargsian in a potential run-off
    election should none of the candidates win over half of all votes cast
    on February 19.

    Overall, Mr. Sargsian appears to be polling somewhat better than
    President Robert Kocharian was on the eve of 2003 election, in which
    Mr. Kocharian won just under 50 percent in the first round and more
    than two-thirds of the vote in the run-off. Mr. Ter-Petrossian in turn
    is polling substantially worse than the main opposition challenger,
    Stepan Demirchian, did in January-February 2003.

    * Uncertainty of outcome, and certainty of crisis

    Mr. Sargsian is continuing to enjoy advantages in organizational
    resources and popular support. Throughout his campaign, he has exuded
    confidence and offered only a restrained reaction to the daily barrage
    of accusations and insults coming from the opposition candidates,
    particularly from Mr. Ter-Petrossian, who has in turn been targeted
    heavily by pro-government media.

    However, over the last week the ex-president's campaign has gained
    momentum and has to a large degree succeeded in turning the election
    into a two-man race. Mr. Ter-Petrossian appears to be attracting
    voters who see him as an only candidate capable of mounting a strong
    challenge against Mr. Sargsian.

    He won the endorsement of Raffi Hovannisian's Heritage Party (which
    won 6 percent of the vote last May), as well as two parliament members
    previously allied with HHK, the prime minister's party. Mr.
    Ter-Petrossian has also been backed by Aram Karapetian, a maverick
    politician who claims to be close to the Russian government and whose
    party won 3 percent of the vote last May.

    Mr. Ter-Petrossian has thus largely reconstituted the 2003
    opposition alliance, at the time led by Mr. Demirchian. The only
    change is that parties supporting former Prime Minister Vazgen
    Manukian, who is running separately, have been replaced by Mr.
    Ter-Petrossian's loyalists from the former ruling Armenian Pan
    National Movement (ANM).

    Last Monday, Armenia's ex-president went to Moscow and reportedly
    assured a pro-Kremlin pundit of his loyalty to Russian interests.
    While Mr. Ter-Petrossian's television ads claimed that he met with
    senior members of the Russian government, those claims remained
    unconfirmed by Russian officials.

    At the same time, the ex-president's campaign pressured Mr.
    Baghdasarian, who has been coming second or third in most recent
    polls, to drop out of the race. Earlier this week, Mr. Ter-Petrossian
    said he was certain of Mr. Baghdasarian's endorsement. But on Thursday
    Mr. Baghdasarian refused to back the ex-president. Support for Mr.
    Ter-Petrossian from other candidates in the race, particularly Mr.
    Hovhannesian of ARF, is believed to be highly unlikely.

    For months, Mr. Ter-Petrossian has also tried to woo away major
    players in Armenia's establishment who have supported Mr. Sargsian --
    particularly PAP leader and businessman Gagik Tsarukian, with little
    success so far. Last Wednesday, the ex-president claimed support from
    unidentified figures in the republic's Police and the National
    Security Service, but those claims remained unsubstantiated as of
    press time.

    The outcome of the electoral race, which has increasingly focused on
    Mr. Ter-Petrossian, Mr. Sargsian, and to an extent Mr. Baghdasarian,
    remains hard to predict. Although Mr. Sargsian remains a favorite, the
    two major opposition campaigns also claim the inevitability of their
    victory and are unlikely to accept defeat without street protests and
    legal appeals to overturn the results.

    While only one of the candidates can win, the balance of forces
    arrayed and the visible polarization of recent weeks make a
    post-election crisis likely, no matter the actual outcome of the vote.

    * * *

    For statistical tables and chart, see www.reporter.am

    ********************************* ******************************************

    13. Living in Armenia: The murky political waters

    by Maria Titizian

    Pollsters, political pundits, taxi drivers, sociologists, political
    scientists, journalists, vegetable vendors, students, old people,
    young people, co-workers, politicians, janitors, city officials.
    Everybody in Armenia is consumed by the upcoming presidential
    elections.

    The only ones that have yet to to come in on the side of this or
    that candidate are possibly the stray dogs of Yerevan. But not to
    worry, I hear they're planning on holding an extraordinary congress
    this weekend to decide to support the one person who cares the least
    about them. Maybe then they can continue to exist among the garbage
    heaps of our fair city unhindered.

    There are currently nine contenders for the presidency. While four
    or five of them really believe they have a shot at it, the rest are
    either single-issue candidates or there to realize someone else's
    agenda or simply window dressing. However, they all claim to have a
    vision, a new direction, creative solutions to very complex and deeply
    rooted problems. Some are political veterans, others are newcomers and
    relatively unknown, some are young and brash, others resolute with
    clearly defined policies. One reportedly has too much money and time
    on his hands and then there's the one who has been there and done
    that. They have been going from town to town, village to village,
    meeting and greeting, kissing babies, shaking hands, making promises.
    It all started out nice enough but has now turned ugly and, excuse me
    gentlemen but rather unladylike.

    To be caught up in the tide of history can be a privilege but also a
    very heavy burden. Whether you are a witness or a pivotal figure in
    the force of change swirling at your feet, you can't help but be
    moved. The fluidity of events and ensuing chaos can leave you gasping
    for air. You can almost feel the wind exiting your lungs as they
    slowly and oh, so gently collapse. And everything slows down and time
    no longer feels the need to move forward, no matter how much you
    cajole or beg it to.

    There are many of us who would like time to move a little bit faster
    and for February 19 to be a distant memory. The last several weeks
    have left all of us in a state resembling something close to despair.
    Despair that the country might unravel, that figures once thought to
    have been left behind for history and future generations to judge have
    come back to life with a vengeance. Rhetoric and demagoguery have
    become a mainstream practice or a vile way of vote grabbing. Let's not
    even talk about coercion, bribery, vote rigging or the fear factor.
    And then there are the logical alliances that should have happened but
    didn't materialize and in their place political forces once thought
    incompatible are aligning themselves with each other.

    And then there are those of us who can neither vote nor take an
    active, public role in the elections. We can write about them and talk
    about them, and trust me we do. We discuss, argue, analyze, diagnose,
    agree then disagree, cringe at the absurdity, but most of all we
    grieve for the future that just might be compromised. The political
    field has become polluted and murky. So many accusations, so many
    half-truths are being circulated; accusations of treason; the potently
    false claims that some political forces were prepared to sell Meghri
    thus denying Armenia a border with Iran; allegations of complicity in
    the murders of October 27, 1999, when the prime minister of Armenia
    and speaker of the parliament along with others were shot dead in the
    National Assembly; while Turkey and Azerbaijan continue on their
    belligerence and isolation of the country irresponsible leaders are
    telling us to play nice and be friends because they might reciprocate;
    demagoguery about the "Karabakh clan" inciting further division and
    mistrust.

    From this vantage point unrest appears to be inevitable. That line
    between integrity and immorality has been crossed and it seems there's
    no turning back. There's too much at stake for some who claim that
    they will continue to struggle in the name of their warped perception
    of public service but their personal "honor" and vested financial
    interests are the factors that determine this journey. Short films
    have been produced by two camps -- that of Serge Sargsian against
    Levon Ter-Petrossian and vice versa. I am embarrassed and feel a sense
    of shame when I watch the new levels these politicians have sunk to.
    Pro-government and anti-government print media in the country are on a
    free for all -- all bets off, all gloves off. The things that are
    being written are disgraceful and irresponsible. They are feeding this
    filth to a weary population only inciting incohesion for which they
    will not be called to answer for.

    The situation has deteriorated to such levels that the Supreme
    Council of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation released a statement
    on February 13 calling for calm, followed the next day by the deputy
    leader of the Country of Laws Party. It certainly is a strange,
    strange set of circumstances that has led us to this particular
    juncture. While Levon Ter-Petrossian's re-emergence has spoken to the
    heart of the disenfranchised and given that particular segment a
    glimmer of hope for fundamental change ultimately eradicating Serge
    Sargsian's aura of inevitability, it has also contributed to the
    rapidly deteriorating tense atmosphere. Neither Levon Ter-Petrossian
    nor Serge Sargsian are talking about their policies, nor their vision.
    They have not remained on point but have strayed from the real issues
    of this campaign. Everybody and their grandmother is being accused of
    collusion, treason, and every other national crime imaginable.

    What is it that people should expect from presidential candidates?
    They should expect but most importantly they deserve to hear policies,
    ideas, solutions, proposals. They need to feel that their next
    president will serve them with integrity, common sense, sound economic
    policies while preserving national values and protecting their
    borders. It angers me to no end that the voice of those candidate(s)
    who are engaging the populace in an honest dialogue are being drowned
    out by the shrieks of accusations by men who forget that this is not
    child's play. Shame on all those who are forsaking this country to
    further their grip on power. Shame on all those whose irresponsibility
    is risking the very viability of this country. Shame on all those who
    allow themselves to be manipulated. And shame on all those who choose
    to remain silent.

    ***************************************** **********************************

    14. Letters: Armenia was written all over her wardrobe

    Sir:

    Thank you for publishing Gregory Lima's cover story in the Armenian
    Reporter's Arts & Culture section ("The Costumes of an Armenian
    Woman," Feb. 2) about Lousik Agouletzi's perspectives, commitment,
    artifacts, and art. To re-coin a popular phrase, the map of Armenia
    was not only written all over her face, but all over her wardrobe as
    well. In this profile, artist and historian Agouletzi successfully
    demonstrated how Armenians can survive and adapt without discarding
    tradition. As far as I'm concerned, Agouletzi is a role model of the
    first degree, and a credit to the Armenians.

    Is Gregory Lima's book, The Costumes of Armenian Women, available
    for purchase? I would like to locate a copy for myself.

    Very truly yours,

    Lucine Kasbarian

    Teaneck, N.J.

    We understand the book has been out of print for over thirty years.
    The originals of the photographs of the costumes (by Peter Carapetian)
    are lost, and so there is no prospect of a reprint.
    --Editor

    ******************************* ********************************************

    15. Editorial: Armenia prepares to elect a president

    Those citizens of Armenia who are present in Armenia on Tuesday,
    February 19, will have the opportunity to head for the polls and
    choose one of nine men as the country's third president. If one
    candidate gets the votes of more than half of the electorate, Armenia
    will have a new president. Otherwise, voters will choose between the
    two candidates with the most votes in a second round, two weeks later.
    The new president will be inaugurated by April 9, when President
    Robert Kocharian's second term expires.

    As in any contested election, passions are running high in the last
    days. This is an indication that people in Armenia care deeply about
    who will be their future head of state. That's a good thing. And the
    passion should translate into high voter turnout and unwillingness on
    the part of voters to accept inducements to vote for this or that
    candidate. That's also a good thing.

    This is an exciting moment for Armenia. It is also a critical
    moment: for people to maintain their faith in their burgeoning nation,
    the elections must be free and fair, building on the excellent
    progress made in the May 2007 elections. The Central Electoral
    Commission is legally responsible to ensure that the elections meet
    this standard. The president, the government, the Central Electoral
    Commission, and various candidates have declared their commitment to
    free and fair elections. Ultimately, it is the responsibility of every
    citizen to be active and vigilant.

    The prime minister, Serge Sargsian, remains the frontrunner. He is
    standing on his own record of 15 years at the top echelons Armenia's
    government under two presidents; and promising stability and
    continuity in policies that have seen an improvement in the standard
    of living of most Armenians. He appears likely to win the majority of
    votes either on February 19, or in a second round.

    Among the other candidates, three have emerged as his main
    challengers: Artur Baghdasarian of the Country of Laws Party, Vahan
    Hovhannesian of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, and Levon
    Ter-Petrossian, Armenia's first president.

    All three drew huge crowds to rallies in Yerevan's Freedom Square
    last week. (Mr. Sargsian will hold a rally there on Sunday, February
    17.)

    Mr. Baghdasarian appeals to various segments of the electorate with
    specific programs. He advocates closer relations with the West. The
    Speaker of the parliament until two years ago, he has since been a
    critic of the current government. But he has distanced himself from
    the more aggressive rhetoric of Mr. Ter-Petrossian, emphasizing the
    need for stability.

    Mr. Hovhannesian has likewise emphasized the need for stability as
    changes are introduced. Emphasizing his independence from
    businesspeople who have a large role in Armenia's public policy, he
    has argued that he can guarantee the independence of the courts and
    law enforcement bodies and thus fight corruption. The widely held
    expectation that likeminded candidate Vazgen Manukian would drop out
    of the race to endorse him did not materialize, to the detriment of
    Mr. Hovhannesian's candidacy.

    Mr. Ter-Petrossian's rally, on Saturday, February 9, drew a somewhat
    larger crowd than the rallies of the other two candidates. At the
    rally, he received the endorsement of three former supporters of Mr.
    Sargsian in parliament. A few days later, Raffi Hovannisian's Heritage
    Party endorsed his candidacy, adding to his momentum.

    While a large proportion of the population continue to revile Mr.
    Ter-Petrossian and his team (blaming them for the disappointments and
    struggles of the 1990s, as well as the suppression of democracy and a
    defeatist position on Karabakh), he now stands a chance of taking a
    respectable third place -- or even going into a run-off as the winner
    of the second largest number of votes.

    He has reached this point in part by exuding confidence. One thing
    that has helped him along has been the fact that a couple of secondary
    candidates (particularly Artashes Geghamian), along with Public
    Television, have spent an inordinate amount of time attacking his
    record and raising the alarm about the presumed policies he would
    pursue if elected. With this focus on him, many among the people who
    do not want to see Mr. Sargsian win the presidency have become
    convinced that Mr. Ter-Petrossian is the only alternative.

    There is a legitimate concern that the confidence Mr. Ter-Petrossian
    exudes could translate into an unwillingness to accept the voters'
    verdict, should it be unfavorable to his candidacy. In the aftermath
    of the May 2007 parliamentary elections, some of the groups that have
    since formed the core of Mr. Ter-Petrossian's campaign were at pains
    to cast doubt on the unanimous conclusion of election observers that
    the elections were mostly free and fair. In defeat, they may escalate
    that campaign this time around.

    The rhetoric from that camp has been highly confrontational. Faced
    this week with the refusal of Mr. Baghdasarian to step out of the race
    in favor of Mr. Ter-Petrossian, Mr. Ter-Petrossian actually accused
    Mr. Baghdasarian of treason. "Whatever he says, no matter how many
    votes he gets, those votes will not be his," Mr. Ter-Petrossian said
    on February 16. Unless he drops out to "stand by the people," Mr.
    Ter-Petrossian added, "he will betray the popular cause."

    In these circumstances, it is especially important for all parties
    to help ensure that the elections are held in a calm atmosphere,
    without intimidation, freely and fairly. And that all the candidates
    and their supporters respect the will of the people. We are confident
    that they will. For we have faith in the wisdom of the Armenian
    people.

    ******************************** *******************************************

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