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Kosovo Should Serve as a Wake-Up Call

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  • Kosovo Should Serve as a Wake-Up Call

    Kosovo Should Serve as a Wake-Up Call

    The Moscow Times, Russia
    Feb 19 2008

    Kosovo's declaration of independence has cracked open the lid on
    Pandora's box. Recognition of the enclave's independence by the
    European Union and the United States would rip the lid right off.

    No matter what EU and U.S. governments say, Sunday's development
    sets a very important precedent. A concentrated ethnic majority --
    Kosovar Albanians -- is establishing an independent state in Europe
    without the consent of its parent state, Serbia.

    Western policymakers might be hoping that the integration of all of
    the Balkans into the EU and NATO would minimize the consequences of
    the Kosovo precedent.

    But these hopes are limited by how many nations and ethnic groups
    the EU could absorb or anchor before such an the expansion started
    threatening its economic, security and political viability.

    The Kosovo example also risks starting a chain reaction elsewhere in
    the world, including former Soviet republics.

    International recognition of Kosovo's independence would be fraught
    with negative consequences for Russia, which has its own ethnically
    distinct republics such as Chechnya.

    In addition, such recognition would force Russia to take a stand after
    years of ambiguity on so-called frozen conflicts within the former
    Soviet Union. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia to
    offer tacit support for separatist regimes while officially backing
    the territorial integrity of former Soviet republics. Russian
    policymakers have hinted that their rhetoric vis-a-vis Georgia's
    separatist republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well as Moldova's
    Transdnestr might change in the wake of Kosovo's independence, They
    have, however, kept mum on Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenian majority
    enclave claimed by Azerbaijan.

    Such an ambiguity -- coupled with Russian efforts to court Azerbaijan
    by offering to sell weapons at a discount, among other things --
    could be interpreted as a double standard -- the very thing that
    President Vladimir Putin angrily accused the West of doing when he
    commented on Kosovo's independence last week.

    The ambiguity in the Kremlin's approach toward frozen conflicts in
    its neighborhood demonstrates vividly that its real interest is to
    anchor former parts of the Soviet Union to Moscow, not to support
    the self-determination of self-declared republics or the territorial
    integrity of its neighbors.

    Self-proclaimed republics should realize that the Kremlin's concern
    about their cause would vanish instantly if their parent states agreed
    to be anchored to Russia. The republics should consider beginning
    negotiations in earnest with their parent states or at the very least
    distancing themselves from Russia before that happens.
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