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Déja vu 20 years later. Who will be the second?
Naira Hayrumyan
19-02-2008 11:44:36 - KarabakhOpen
Reports on Kosovo declaration of independence were on all
the channels. It was reported like information of universal
importance. Even the show celebrating the independence was fully
broadcast live. All this is evidence that in a few days the great
powers will have recognized the independence of the self-declared
republic.
On these days Karabakh is preparing for the celebration of the 20th
anniversary of the beginning of the Karabakh movement. The movement
which started in 1988 led to declaration of independence in 1991,
bloodshed in 1991-1994, the OSCE mediation mission, fruitless talks,
a diplomatic war. As a result the international community rejects
recognition.
Politicians assert that Kosovo cannot be a precedent. The fact how
zealously they say it is evidence that there are points in common
with other conflicts. And right away the question occurs why some
countries are going to recognize the independence of Kosovo.
The answer to this question should be sought elsewhere. First of all,
in geopolitics. Experts assert quite logically that a combustible and
uncontrollable region at the center of Europe is unacceptable. Albania
is not a member of the European cultural family. Moreover, it is an
aggressive opponent regarding several issues. And it is necessary
to establish control over the territories which may do unpredictable
actions.
The second is religion. People who live in Kosovo are Muslims. The
"Christian" West would not recognize "Christian" unrecognized states
but it recognized the Muslim state. It means either the West fears
the Muslim factor and is reluctant to confront the "hazardous"
confession or the establishment of a Muslim state at the heart of
Europe is favorable for someone.
Diplomacy is the third place where the question of the answer could be
found. The recognition of Kosovo among other states means that Kosovo
conducted a correct policy. It means this country could concentrate
its home political and external political resource and prove its
independence.
The fourth is security. What threat does the recognition of Kosovo
pose? Actually no threat. Most probably all Serbia will do is a
few peaceful rallies, and Russia may blackmail the West regarding
several issues. Most probably, there will be no military actions,
since everyone still has fresh memories of shelling of Belgrade by
the NATO force, bypassing the UN Security Council. Meanwhile, the
recognition of other states, such as Karabakh may bring about military
consequences which may cause a permanent reaction across the world.
Nevertheless, Kosovo has declared independence. The others should
analyze thoroughly the reasons why the United States, France and the
UK need a Muslim Albanian state at the heart of Europe.
--Boundary_(ID_3y/LcgqnRcBdfsbeoIcJZA)--
Naira Hayrumyan
19-02-2008 11:44:36 - KarabakhOpen
Reports on Kosovo declaration of independence were on all
the channels. It was reported like information of universal
importance. Even the show celebrating the independence was fully
broadcast live. All this is evidence that in a few days the great
powers will have recognized the independence of the self-declared
republic.
On these days Karabakh is preparing for the celebration of the 20th
anniversary of the beginning of the Karabakh movement. The movement
which started in 1988 led to declaration of independence in 1991,
bloodshed in 1991-1994, the OSCE mediation mission, fruitless talks,
a diplomatic war. As a result the international community rejects
recognition.
Politicians assert that Kosovo cannot be a precedent. The fact how
zealously they say it is evidence that there are points in common
with other conflicts. And right away the question occurs why some
countries are going to recognize the independence of Kosovo.
The answer to this question should be sought elsewhere. First of all,
in geopolitics. Experts assert quite logically that a combustible and
uncontrollable region at the center of Europe is unacceptable. Albania
is not a member of the European cultural family. Moreover, it is an
aggressive opponent regarding several issues. And it is necessary
to establish control over the territories which may do unpredictable
actions.
The second is religion. People who live in Kosovo are Muslims. The
"Christian" West would not recognize "Christian" unrecognized states
but it recognized the Muslim state. It means either the West fears
the Muslim factor and is reluctant to confront the "hazardous"
confession or the establishment of a Muslim state at the heart of
Europe is favorable for someone.
Diplomacy is the third place where the question of the answer could be
found. The recognition of Kosovo among other states means that Kosovo
conducted a correct policy. It means this country could concentrate
its home political and external political resource and prove its
independence.
The fourth is security. What threat does the recognition of Kosovo
pose? Actually no threat. Most probably all Serbia will do is a
few peaceful rallies, and Russia may blackmail the West regarding
several issues. Most probably, there will be no military actions,
since everyone still has fresh memories of shelling of Belgrade by
the NATO force, bypassing the UN Security Council. Meanwhile, the
recognition of other states, such as Karabakh may bring about military
consequences which may cause a permanent reaction across the world.
Nevertheless, Kosovo has declared independence. The others should
analyze thoroughly the reasons why the United States, France and the
UK need a Muslim Albanian state at the heart of Europe.
--Boundary_(ID_3y/LcgqnRcBdfsbeoIcJZA)--