Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

ANKARA: Mistrust Problem in Turkey - Iran Relations

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • ANKARA: Mistrust Problem in Turkey - Iran Relations

    Journal of Turkish Weekly, Turkey
    Feb 21 2008


    Mistrust Problem in Turkey - Iran Relations
    Sedat Laciner


    Thursday , 21 February 2008


    Iran, with its 70 million-population, with its huge surface area
    (almost two times bigger than Turkey), and with its abundant energy
    resources, is one of the most crucial states of the Middle East
    region. At the same time, Iran has the second largest economy of
    Middle East and Muslim geography after Turkish economy. Besides, Iran
    is one of the neighbors of Turkey. When all these data are
    considered, it is natural to expect a serious economic co-operation
    or even economic integration between these two neighbors, Turkey and
    Iran. However, a thorny picture is confronted when the relations are
    considered:

    Iran, together with China and Russia, is one of the countries that
    Turkey has given great external trade deficit. The annual deficit in
    Turkey - Iran external trade is over $ 5 billion. While gas import
    constitutes almost 75 % of Turkish - Iranian external trade,
    non-natural gas trade capacity between Turkey and Iran is just around
    $ 2 billion although Turkey with its industry and
    agriculture-stockbreeding sectors can sustain most of the Iranian
    needs. It is strange that there is a significant resistance against
    Turkish companies in Iranian bureaucracy.

    The situation is even worse in direct investments than bilateral
    trade. Turkish investors have faced unbelievable drawbacks. Turkish
    investors cannot utilize from advantages of being a neighbor country
    and having common cultural-religious similarities, they even have
    faced drawbacks because of being Turk. When all the drawbacks were
    overcome and came to the last phase of adjudication, the process can
    suddenly be canceled. The TAV and the Turkcell are the clearest
    examples to understand the Iranian resistance against Turkish
    investors in Iran. A group of Turkish businessmen, who had visited
    USAK three weeks ago, complained about another aspect of doing
    business with Iran. They stated that Iranian businessmen recently
    seem very excited for co-operation with Turkish companies but almost
    all of the co-operation attempts ended with disappointments for
    Turkish side. After find out profession secrets of Turkish
    businessmen (know-how) and learned how production is made, Iranians
    force their Turkish partners go away from Iran and keep on business.
    The businessmen appraise this approach of Iranians as an `eastern
    opportunism' and explain how difficult to make sustainable
    co-operation with Iranians for a long period. It is obvious that
    closed-economy and economic sanctions, occurred after the revolution,
    alienate Iranians from competition and it seems it will take so long
    for them to learn new universal business rules. In other words, the
    only bar before external economic co-operation in Iran is not the
    political resistance to international co-operation but also cultural
    resistance.

    ***

    Whoever says, it is obvious that there are some forces inside the
    Iranian state who don't want more Turkish companies in Iran. These
    invisible men see Turkey as `spy of the USA and Israel'. They
    consider Turkey as possible trigger of a possible `counter
    revolution' in Iran. Although the newly emerging active Turkish
    Middle East policies in post-1 March Memorandum (Tezkere) Period and
    the Iraq War, have soften these thoughts, for the radical Iranian
    revolutionists Turkey should still be perceived as a suspicious
    country.

    Second reason is Turkey's stand points are being completely opposite
    to revolutionary Iran in almost all fields. Turkey is the champion of
    different religious interpretations and way of lives in the Muslim
    world and with its open market and relatively liberal and pluralistic
    political structure Turkey has the power to influence Iranian masses.
    The Iranian people watch Turkish TV channelles everyday and about
    half a million Iranians visit Turkey every year. Ordinary Iranians
    are not happy with their life in Iran and wish to reach the Turkish
    way of life. Turkey has been emerging as a new role model for many
    Iranians. This is Turkey's soft power on Iran. In other words,
    Turkish understanding is perceived as `antidote of Iranian
    understanding' for some Iranians. Due to this, within the Iranian
    state, a resistance is occurred towards the relations with Turkey.

    Another problem that hinders the improvement of the relations is the
    traditional - historical Iranian politics. This could be a serious
    problem even if Iran was a secular country. It is a historical fact
    that almost all Middle Eastern countries have been skeptical about
    Iran under any regime or leader. The mistrust towards Iran among
    Arabs, Turks and other Muslim nations of the greater Middle East has
    always been there. So as to remind, during the Ottoman era, Iran and
    Ottoman Empire couldn't be allies, and couldn't ensure any serious
    economic or political co-operation. At that time, Iranian - Vatican
    relations were much better than the Ottoman - Iranian relations.
    Although many Turkish researchers consider stable Iranian - Ottoman
    border as proof for Ottoman - Iranian friendship, the reason of
    nearly unchanged borders should be searched in balance of power
    instead of confidence between two nations. If the Ottoman Empire was
    so powerful, Iran would have extended inside the Anatolian
    territories. As a matter of fact that the Iranian forces time to time
    attempted to invade the Ottoman territories yet they could not
    advance more. The Ottomans on the other hand did not spread its
    territories inside Iran so much because its expansion field was
    Europe and the Mediterranean region. In brief, stability in the
    borders was not a natural result of strong relations but balance of
    power. The Ottomans had got various measures in Iraq and Anatolia
    against Iranian threat. For instance, the real reason why Iraqi
    Turkmens were settled like a sword from north to south of Iraq was
    the `Iranian danger'.

    Actually, Iranian relations have not only been problematic with the
    Anatolian Turks but also with almost whole Muslim world. The
    relations were problematic before the 1979 Revolution and remained
    problematic after the so-called Islamic Revolution. In another word
    the change in Iranian foreign policy towards the Muslim countries
    remained similar to Shah's `imperial policies'. For many Arab
    countries the first threat to Arab world is Iran. During the Cold
    War, the U.S. tried to unite the Arab world against the communist
    threat under her leadership and now she has utilized Iran threat as a
    mean. It means that Iran legitimize the US existence in the region,
    especially in the Gulf countries. When you spoke with Arab diplomats
    and other authorities, except those of Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah,
    you realize that none of the regional countries truly rely on Iran.
    The Gulf Arabs for example define Iran as one of the major threats
    because they think that Iran may attack to them and may intervene
    their domestic affairs. It is well known fact that Iranian State has
    been very keen on intervening the domestic issues of the other Muslim
    countries since 1979. That's why the Arab countries of the Gulf
    called the Americans, British and even the French to balance the
    Iranian power in the region. Not only the Gulf Arabs but also Jordan
    and Egypt Arabs are also skeptical about Iran. One of the Arab
    diplomat told me that they receive very mixed signals from Tehran.
    `There is at least couple of states in Teheran' he added.

    Iran not only `frightens' the Arabs but also other Muslim countries
    like Pakistan. There are a lot of examples, but the most dramatic
    one experienced when the Pakistan earthquake happened. Iran made all
    possible efforts to stop Turkish charities and other aid convoys to
    Pakistan. This bitter memory has never been forgotten by both Turkey
    and Pakistan. Iran sees Pakistan as rival country and strangely
    prevent an economic integration between Turkey, Pakistan and Iran
    although all these three countries need more co-operation to overcome
    their economic and social problems.

    Iran-Turkey relations are not an exception, Iranian mistrust problem
    exist with almost all Turkish states. Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan,
    Uzbekistan and other Turk republics are skeptical about Iranian
    policies in the Central Asia and Caucasus. Azerbaijan in particular
    is certainly aware of Iranian support for Armenia. It is not secret
    that during the Armenian occupation on Azerbaijan lands, Russia and
    Iran was the first two countries that gave economic support to
    Armenia. Armenia has gained strength against Azerbaijan thanks to the
    Iranian aid in every field especially in energy. Tehran, time to
    time, tries to act as a mediator between Baku and Yerevan. This is
    strange because Iran defines itself as an Islamic state and
    Azerbaijani people are Muslim. Iran and Azerbaijan not only share the
    same religion but also the same sect, Shia. In addition more than 35
    percent of Iranian population is Azerbaijani. However Iran prefers
    Christian Armenia instead of Muslim and Shia Azerbaijan. It is clear
    that Iranian foreign policy in the region is not religious.

    Another thorny issue between Iran and Azerbaijan is the Caspian Sea.
    If Turkey and the U.S. did not give political and military support to
    Baku, it was obvious how difficult situation Azerbaijan might face
    the Caspian Sea.

    Similarly the other Turkish Republics of the Central Asia were
    disturbed by the Iranian `regime exporters' and missionaries during
    the 1990s and 2000s. Iranian regime has always been perceived as
    source of threat by the Turkic societies. Turkish Islam and Iranian
    Islam have never been the same interpretation of the religion and the
    gap in religious life reflected on political issues.

    Another problem is the PKK terrorism. From Turkish point of view,
    Iran's support to PKK terrorist organization is still in the
    memories. The intelligence reports clearly show that Teheran helped
    or ignored the PKK in the 1980s and 1990s. It is claimed that the PKK
    bases and other infrastructure around the Kandil Mountain was
    constructed by the Iranians. Iran generally turned a blind eye on
    terror and the PKK terrorists freely used Turkey-Iran borders to
    attack Turkish forces during the 1990s. Today Iran has the same
    trouble and has had to co-operate with Turkey. The Iraq War shifted
    the balance of power in the region, and the PKK terrorists now target
    Iran too. The PKK has recently killed more than 100 Iranian soldiers
    and police. The Kurdish problem in Iraq and other Iraqi problems also
    threaten Iran too and Iran searches Turkey's friendship in Iraq and
    the PKK problem. However, it is really difficult for the Turks to
    fully trust Iran in strategic issues. The past experiences and the
    mixed signals from Teheran also do not help the Turks to rely on
    Iran.



    ***



    As discussed above, Iran has awkward relations with most of the
    Muslim countries. However Iran has quite good relations with Russia
    and Armenia, the two Christian countries in the region. Besides,
    these two countries have serious problems with the Muslim countries.
    Armenia has occupied almost one over five of its neighbor
    Azerbaijan's land; Russia caused serious humanity tragedy in
    Chechnya. In other words, it is really difficult not to remember Iran
    who had co-operated with Vatican against Ottoman.

    With these data, it can be said that Iran is one of the significant
    obstacle for Turkey who wants to sustain economic integration, trade
    and political co-operation in the Middle East. Some Iranians think
    that Turkey has a secret (filthy) agenda. These Iranian people deep
    inside Iranian State are anxious about Turkey's digging up the
    country with trade. This point of view exists in Iran towards not
    only Turkey but also other regional countries. The skepticism inside
    Iran however may create skepticism in Turkey and other regional
    countries. Thus the imagined threats may become real threats. That's
    why Iranian skepticism and mistrust about the region is not only
    wrong but also dangerous.

    THE GAS DISPUTE

    The natural gas cuts are another example of Iran's wrong point of
    view regarding Turkey and regional trade. As it is known, in order to
    decrease its dependency on Russia and to increase its trade with its
    neighbor Iran, Turkey decided to get Iranian natural gas. In this
    purpose, huge investments were made to build hundreds of kilometers
    pipelines between these two countries. When Turkey first brought this
    pipeline project into the agenda, it had encountered serious
    political costs both inside and outside. While, from inside it is
    said that to co-operate with an Islamist country like Iran is against
    the main elements of Turkish Republic's founding principle
    secularism; from outside, the U.S. clarified that she is against all
    kind of co-operations with Iran. However, Ankara accomplished all
    these difficulties and built the Iranian gas pipeline. Even, in the
    following years, it sought for other co-operations in natural gas
    fields with Tehran. While in a period the world run away from Iran
    and treat it as an `unwanted country', Iran arbitrarily began to cut
    gas to Turkey, even in the middle of a cold winter. Apart from the
    cuts, the quality of Iranian gas has been another problem. Iran could
    not serve as it promised till now. All these technical problems and
    immediate cuts caused great cost in Turkish economy. Two winters ago
    for instance, the industrial areas thanks to Iranian gas cut shut
    down their productions because of gas shortage. This year serious
    problems have occurred in electricity production again due to Iranian
    gas cuts.

    When it cuts gas, Iran sees no need to make a detailed explanation at
    the right time. No explanation, no apology. Iranian engineers close
    the valve of gas if Iran wishes or opens it if it does not wish so.
    When reactions toughen from Turkey, Iran finds some unacceptable
    excuses. This year, Iranian justifications are the same again:

    `Winter is so cold this year. It doesn't enough for us, how we will
    give you?'

    In fact, in Turkey some people go forward by acknowledging Iran is
    right. They said: `How can a country sell its gas to outside while it
    doesn't enough for its citizens?'

    Certainly a country must sell its gas to other countries under any
    circumstances if it signed written gas export agreements. If a
    country signed an agreement, undertake an international obligation,
    the priority is its external obligations. It has to keep its words
    what ever will happen. Otherwise, no one can make trade and political
    co-operation with it. It was not the first time that Iran had cold
    winter. It is also not a secret how much its gas production would be.
    At that point, Iran that signed an agreement with another country,
    should obey these obligations. At least it should share its
    difficulty with Turkey and ask Turkey's help to increase production
    and solve the technical problems in gas production. At least Iran
    owns an apology to Turkish people.

    Another justification of Iran is the sudden cut in Turkmen gas that
    Iran imports. Turkmenistan has made efforts to persuade Iran for
    higer gas prices, and Tehran has resisted the demand. Turkmens saw
    the cold weather as opportunity to `persuade' Iranians by cutting
    gas. At this point we should also note that Iran has not been
    constructive in direct import of Turkmen gas from Turkmenistan
    through Iranian territories. Iranians as a matter of fact that buys
    Turkmen gas and sells it to Turkey at higher prices. And when the
    Turkmens cut the gas, they cannot sell Turkmen gas to Turkey and
    their gas production is not enough for a big export to Turkey.
    However it should be noted that Turkmen gas is not Turkey's business.
    Turkey has no agreement with Turkmenistan but Iran.



    ***



    In brief, although Iran is surrounded by the U.S. forces and
    threatened almost every day by the Washington, it fails to gain the
    hearts and minds of the Middle East peoples as well. Even, Iran
    doesn't carry out its obligations towards Turkish market where it
    earned billion dollars. It is unfortunate that Iran doesn't act as a
    consistent partner.

    If Turkey and Iran can overcome the barriers before economic
    co-operation a deeper economic integration in Turkey-Iran-Central
    Asia corridor and Turkey-Iran-Pakistan line would be inevitable.

    Lastly, it can be said that the most crucial obstacle for Iran is
    Iran itself. Meaningless and contradictory messages are coming from
    Iran. At this moment there is at least more than one Iran, and this
    kind of Iran frightens regional countries as much as the U.S. does.


    Translated by Beliz EROL and Gulcin SUZME

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Working...
X