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NEW 'BULLY' MAY HELP MOVE YEREVAN FORWARD
By Arthur Martirosyan and Tom Samuelian
The Moscow Times
February 26, 2008
Slogans say a lot about the recent presidential election campaign
in Armenia. Former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan campaigned under
the banner "We're going to win." Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan won
the nine-candidate race in the first round with the slogan "Onward
Armenia." Armenia's Central Election Commission reported 69 percent
voter turnout, led by Sargsyan with 52.9 percent and Ter-Petrosyan
with 21.5 percent.
Nevertheless, in line with its slogan, the Ter-Petrosyan camp claimed
victory and challenged the results at campaign rallies, even after
the international observers announced that elections were "in line
with the country's international commitments," "broadly fair" and
"significantly better than earlier presidential elections." This could
be read as an ironic allusion to Ter-Petrosyan's rigged reelection
in 1996, which resulted in his ousting a year later.
The often complacent and greedy regimes since 1991 have left many
disillusioned. The most disaffected were looking for a bully to
bully the bullies who bullied them. They found a "champion" in
Ter-Petrosyan, whose regime in the early 1990s racked up a record
of human rights abuses, kleptocracy and election-rigging. But the
post-electoral protest is unlikely to produce a major domestic crisis
or a revolutionary change.
The silent majority does not see change for change's sake as
particularly beneficial unless it means real change. Rarely does the
electorate anywhere dump the leadership after a decade of peace and
economic growth. People understand that a change of regime is messy,
especially in a small country.
Given the interlocking elites, change may be more cosmetic than real.
Still, for the big geopolitical issues the choice is real. Relations
with Turkey and the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict seem
ripe for a breakthrough. The candidate of peace seems more likely to
be Sargsyan than Ter-Petrosyan. While uncertainties over regional
configuration are likely to continue, it is safe to predict that
the Sargsyan team will be seeking even closer ties with Russia and
its president-elect.
For all the negativism, the elections may still have some positive
effect.
The Sargsyan team has been visibly chastened and the electorate
somewhat awakened.
Whether the Sargsyan team has what it takes get beyond the legacy of
corruption and unresponsive bureaucracy that he will inherit from
the administrations of former Presidents Ter-Petrosyan and Robert
Kocharyan, remains to be seen.
Arthur Martirosyan is program manager, FSU and Middle East, for Mercy
Corps Conflict Management Group. Tom Samuelian is president of Arlex
International in Yerevan, Armenia.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
By Arthur Martirosyan and Tom Samuelian
The Moscow Times
February 26, 2008
Slogans say a lot about the recent presidential election campaign
in Armenia. Former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan campaigned under
the banner "We're going to win." Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan won
the nine-candidate race in the first round with the slogan "Onward
Armenia." Armenia's Central Election Commission reported 69 percent
voter turnout, led by Sargsyan with 52.9 percent and Ter-Petrosyan
with 21.5 percent.
Nevertheless, in line with its slogan, the Ter-Petrosyan camp claimed
victory and challenged the results at campaign rallies, even after
the international observers announced that elections were "in line
with the country's international commitments," "broadly fair" and
"significantly better than earlier presidential elections." This could
be read as an ironic allusion to Ter-Petrosyan's rigged reelection
in 1996, which resulted in his ousting a year later.
The often complacent and greedy regimes since 1991 have left many
disillusioned. The most disaffected were looking for a bully to
bully the bullies who bullied them. They found a "champion" in
Ter-Petrosyan, whose regime in the early 1990s racked up a record
of human rights abuses, kleptocracy and election-rigging. But the
post-electoral protest is unlikely to produce a major domestic crisis
or a revolutionary change.
The silent majority does not see change for change's sake as
particularly beneficial unless it means real change. Rarely does the
electorate anywhere dump the leadership after a decade of peace and
economic growth. People understand that a change of regime is messy,
especially in a small country.
Given the interlocking elites, change may be more cosmetic than real.
Still, for the big geopolitical issues the choice is real. Relations
with Turkey and the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict seem
ripe for a breakthrough. The candidate of peace seems more likely to
be Sargsyan than Ter-Petrosyan. While uncertainties over regional
configuration are likely to continue, it is safe to predict that
the Sargsyan team will be seeking even closer ties with Russia and
its president-elect.
For all the negativism, the elections may still have some positive
effect.
The Sargsyan team has been visibly chastened and the electorate
somewhat awakened.
Whether the Sargsyan team has what it takes get beyond the legacy of
corruption and unresponsive bureaucracy that he will inherit from
the administrations of former Presidents Ter-Petrosyan and Robert
Kocharyan, remains to be seen.
Arthur Martirosyan is program manager, FSU and Middle East, for Mercy
Corps Conflict Management Group. Tom Samuelian is president of Arlex
International in Yerevan, Armenia.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress