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Hovnanian: Housing Slump Is Nearing Bottom
By Brooke Sopelsa
Special to CNBC.com
CNBC.com
| 11 Jan 2008 | 02:40 PM ET
It has been a very tough year for homebuilders, and no one knows that
better than Ara Hovnanian. His company, Hovnanian Enterprises , saw
its stock plummet from $40 in February to just below $6 a share today.
Despite the industry's downturn, Hovnanian maintains a positive
outlook and sums this up to the cyclical nature of the homebuilding
industry.
`Housing is down; it's going to come back,' said Hovnanian. `There
has been a major correction already. We're certainly near the
bottom,that would be my guess.'
One thing that is giving Hovnanian confidence is the surprisingly
strong December he said the industry had.
`The Fed indicated they might change their stance on rates, Secretary
Paulson indicated their rescue plan for the subprime resets, and all
of the sudden sentiment changed. We had a fabulous December, very
unusual, it's usually a slow time in the marketplace.'
Skeptics are calling for a 15% drop in the median value of homes
before we see a bottom in the industry, but Hovnanian says there has
been more of a correction than some might think.
`A lot of the house prices they quote have to do with existing prices.
New homes have corrected dramatically more than existing homes, so
that's already happened.'
Hovnanian says by the end of February we should see data that
accurately reflects the correction the industry has already had.
Solutions
Hovnanian says freezing mortgage resets for homeowners who can afford
the pre-reset price will stabilize the market and forestall
foreclosures, but he would also like to see the Federal Reserve take
more decisive action by further cutting interest rates.
`I think 50 (basis points) would be key,' said Hovnanian.
`I think it's going to take even more than that, but that would be a
great move for confidence.'
By Brooke Sopelsa
Special to CNBC.com
CNBC.com
| 11 Jan 2008 | 02:40 PM ET
It has been a very tough year for homebuilders, and no one knows that
better than Ara Hovnanian. His company, Hovnanian Enterprises , saw
its stock plummet from $40 in February to just below $6 a share today.
Despite the industry's downturn, Hovnanian maintains a positive
outlook and sums this up to the cyclical nature of the homebuilding
industry.
`Housing is down; it's going to come back,' said Hovnanian. `There
has been a major correction already. We're certainly near the
bottom,that would be my guess.'
One thing that is giving Hovnanian confidence is the surprisingly
strong December he said the industry had.
`The Fed indicated they might change their stance on rates, Secretary
Paulson indicated their rescue plan for the subprime resets, and all
of the sudden sentiment changed. We had a fabulous December, very
unusual, it's usually a slow time in the marketplace.'
Skeptics are calling for a 15% drop in the median value of homes
before we see a bottom in the industry, but Hovnanian says there has
been more of a correction than some might think.
`A lot of the house prices they quote have to do with existing prices.
New homes have corrected dramatically more than existing homes, so
that's already happened.'
Hovnanian says by the end of February we should see data that
accurately reflects the correction the industry has already had.
Solutions
Hovnanian says freezing mortgage resets for homeowners who can afford
the pre-reset price will stabilize the market and forestall
foreclosures, but he would also like to see the Federal Reserve take
more decisive action by further cutting interest rates.
`I think 50 (basis points) would be key,' said Hovnanian.
`I think it's going to take even more than that, but that would be a
great move for confidence.'