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  • National Defense taking precedent over pensions

    DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
    January 25, 2008 Friday


    NATIONAL DEFENSE TAKING PRECEDENT OVER PENSIONS

    by Vladimir Mukhin

    CIS COUNTRIES BOOST ARMS SPENDINGS; Arms spendings in CIS countries
    exceed the GDP growth.


    What information on CIS countries' military budgets is available
    indicate a steady growth of arms spendings throughout the
    Commonwealth.

    At first sight, the relative parameters remain unchanged in most CIS
    countries. As a matter of fact, however, in 2006-2008 they grew by at
    least one third every year, leaving the GDP growth in this countries
    far behind. Aggregate arms spendings of CIS countries this year will
    exceed the 2006 by 65%. Aggregate GDP growth in the meantime is only
    expected to top that of 2008 by only 15%.

    Georgia has been an absolute record-holder with regard to arms
    spending. It spent $77 million on national defense in 2006 and plans
    to spend $600 million this year.

    Georgia's neighbors in the Caucasus are doing what they can to keep
    up with it. Azerbaijan has almost doubled its military budget since
    2006. It will amount to $1.3 billion this year. The military budget
    of Armenia increases at a similar rate. Yerevan has set aside almost
    $0.4 billion for national defense this year - discounting the
    military budget of the government of Nagorno-Karabakh. Their
    confrontation with Azerbaijan taken into account, Armenia and
    Nagorno-Karabakh spend at least 5% of their GDP on arms spendings
    (with Russian military aid taken into account). The military budgets
    of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia leave the impression that
    countries of the southern part of the Caucasus make preparations for
    the hostilities.

    The situation in Central Asia is somewhat different. Kyrgyz arms
    spending amounts to only 1.3% of the GDP. In fact, Kyrgyzstan is one
    of the least militarized countries in the Commonwealth. Its GDP this
    year is expected to reach $3.4 billion, and foreign debts nearly
    equal the GDP.

    The military budget of Uzbekistan in the meantime is certainly a
    burden for the national economy. Tashkent intends to spend 4% of the
    GDP on national defense this year. The figure is nearly 1% down from
    the 2006 parameters, but some experts attribute it to the restored
    membership in the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization.
    Weapons and military hardware within the Organization are available
    to its members at the makers' domestic prices. Needless to say, other
    members of the Organization owe this good luck mostly to Russia. The
    relatively large arms spending of Uzbekistan in the meantime is
    ascribed to determination to deal with domestic threats rather than
    external ones. The regular army is the regime's principal prop in
    Uzbekistan and has been ever since the armed rebellion in Andijan
    (Ferghana Valley) was crushed in May of 2005.

    It maybe added here that Russia offers military aide to practically
    all Central Asian countries (Turkmenistan is the only exception).
    Turkmenistan will be the principal recipient this year. Military
    hardware of the 201st Russian Military Base is being turned over to
    the national army there these days. Its cost is estimated at nearly
    $1 billion or almost one third of the Tajik GDP expected to amount to
    $3.5 billion this year. The 2008 Tajik military budget in the
    meantime is planned at the level of $63 million or just over 5% of
    the worth of Russian military aid.

    Military aid to Belarus will continue this year because both
    countries are still building the common defense zone. Thirteen
    percent or $163 million of the Russian-Belarussian Union budget
    financed by Moscow by two thirds are to be set aside for
    military-technical cooperation, law enforcement, and security. The
    Belarussian military budget this year will amount to $680 million.

    A few words on Kazakh and Ukrainian arms spending now. Astana has
    doubled arms spending since 2006. In relative figures, that amounts
    to just over 1% of the GDP. The rapidly developing economy in
    Kazakhstan in the meantime permitted Astana to launch a major
    rearmament program.

    Ukrainian entertains similar plans with regard to military
    development. President Victor Yuschenko instructed the government and
    the Rada to double arms spendings currently amounting to about $2
    billion. Yuschenko wants more than $4 billion or over 2% of the GDP
    spent on national defense. If the order is carried out, conscription
    in the Ukraine will be abolished in 2010 and the Armed Forces will
    become professional.

    Turkmenistan and Moldova spend little on national defense -
    Turkmenistan because it has no external or internal enemies, Moldova
    because it is so poor. Kishinev counts on the EU and NATO aid that
    may equal Moldova's own military budget this year.

    As for Ashkhabad, it is the domestic repressive machinery that it
    believes and invests in. Reports from the Turkmen regular army in the
    meantime indicate that it is on the verge of collapse due to the
    absence of qualified personnel.

    Analysis of information in open sources therefore shows that arms
    spendings throughout the Commonwealth grow at a faster rate that the
    national GDPs. Republics facing grave problems (territorial, social,
    whatever) become militarized to a larger extent than other countries.
    Russia continues to send military aide to some members of the CIS
    Collective Security Treaty Organization. The Russian military budget
    in 2008 in the meantime is double the 2006 one.

    Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, January 23, 2008, p. 9

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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