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Abkhazia Violence And Regional Redefinition

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  • Abkhazia Violence And Regional Redefinition

    ABKHAZIA VIOLENCE AND REGIONAL REDEFINITION

    Kuwait Times
    July 02, 2008
    Kuwait

    There has been a recent uptick in violence in the Georgian secessionist
    region of Abkhazia, with six people suffering injuries June 30 when two
    small bombs went off in trash bins in a parking lot across the street
    from a market in the Abkhaz capital of Sukhumi. On the previous day,
    another six people were injured when two small bombs exploded in the
    Abkhaz Black Sea resort city of Gagra. Abkhaz authorities immediately
    blamed Georgians for the attacks, and they quickly announced that the
    border between Geor gia and Abkhazia would close July 1 in response.

    Violence and random attacks occur frequently inside Abkhazia and
    across the border in Georgia proper. This sudden spike in violence
    is most likely not random, but an attempt by the Abkhaz to sabotage
    a new opening of Georgia-Russia negotiations. Georgia has two
    separatist enclaves, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, that achieved de
    facto independence in 1993 and have benefited from Russian protection -
    including the presence of Russian peacekeepers - ever since. Abkhazia
    is the more militant of the two.

    Tensions have been high in the region for many years, with Russia using
    its presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia to push back on Georgia,
    which has been pro-Western since its Rose Revolution in 2005 - much
    to Russia's ire. Since then, the West (mainly the United States)
    has seen Georgia as its closest ally in the region. Over the past
    few years, a series of militant and military squabbles has escalated
    the situation. In addition, Russia has increased its troop presence
    in Abkhazia, and Georgia has sough t NATO membership as part of the
    West's overall protection. But Tbilisi has learned in the past year
    that the West has much more significant issues on its plate. The
    European Union is in internal chaos over the Lisbon Treaty, and the
    United States is bogged down with Iran and Iraq.

    Moreover, Georgia has felt increasingly isolated by the West's
    abandonment in the face of Russia's growing aggression. In the past
    month, it has also seen a symbolic consolidation of relations between
    Armenia and Azerbaijan with Russia. New Russian President Dmitri
    Medvedev has met with the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders at least
    twice in the past month, and another trip to Baku is slated for the
    week of June 30. Unless it wants to commit geopolitical suicide by
    taking on Russia by itself, Georgia now ha s only one real option: It
    must strike a deal with Moscow. One is already on the table, according
    to leaks in the media. It includes the Georgians partitioning Abkhazia
    and allowing refugee Georgians, who fled in the early 1990s during
    the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict, to return. But Russia has nixed this
    deal outright.

    According to Stratfor sources, however, there is another deal in the
    works. It would allow Georgian refugees to return to a small section in
    Abkhazia just north of Gali in exchange for the Kodori Gorge region,
    the only part of Abkhazia that is under Georgian control. This deal
    could actually work for both the Abkhaz and the Georgians in that both
    get back a small sliver of what they claim as their territory. Georgia
    might be comfortable giving up Kodori because it includes a small
    ethnic group called the S vans-fierce fighters who are pro-Georgian
    - who would be capable of keeping watch on Abkhaz and Russians
    in the region for Tbilisi. But the deal has to go through Russia,
    which has its own hook: It wants Tbilisi to renounce its bid for
    NATO membership. The Georgians could go along with such a demand,
    since they know the West currently has little interest in their
    country. Georgia also knows that a deal with Moscow could be broken
    in the future, just as others have been broken in the past.

    But in this case, the details do not really matter. Whether Tbilisi
    accepts this deal or another also matters less than what this situation
    says about the overall power play that is unfolding. Russia has
    resumed its authority. The fact that Georgia might be scrambling for
    a deal before a crisis erupts marks the return of Russian authority,
    and a redefinition of the balance of power in the region. Currently,
    the West does not have the wherewithal to confront Russia. If it did,
    a defining confrontation woul d have unfolded. The West has passed
    on that opportunity, leaving Georgia to fly solo and at the mercy
    of Russian will. But this inaction signals a greater understanding
    by the West - that Russia's power will not remain in Georgia, but
    expand to other regions and beyond.- Stratfor
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