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  • Iran: Political Developments

    IRAN: POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

    "Noravank" Foundation
    03 July 2008

    Sevak Sarukhanyan

    On May 28 the newly elected parliament of Iran elected a new speaker.
    As a result of voting the new head of Majlis became the ex-president of
    Public Television and Radio, the former secretary of the Supreme
    National Security Council Ali Larijani. Larijani's victory may have an
    important influence both on the activity of Majlis and the course of
    events in preparation to presidential elections to be held next year.

    The new parliament of Iran and coming presidential elections
    In spite of the fact that A. Larijani represents the political wing of
    right conservators and during the elections for the post of speaker was
    supported by the president M. Ahmadinejad, his approaches are somehow
    different from the ones of the representatives of the president's
    political team.

    First: Ali Larijani, being a secular politician, has direct ties with
    Iran's spiritual authorities. Apart from the fact that Larijani was
    born in the family of a clergyman, he is also the son-in law of a
    well-known ideologist of Islamic revolution M. Mottaki. It is quite an
    important precondition as the political plane of up-to-date Iran is
    little by little separating from spiritual authorities: it has come to
    be proved by the election of a secular president, M. Ahmadinejad, to
    the post of president as well as by the staff of Majlis today, the
    number of clergymen in which hardly exceeds 10%. In that way, in
    comparison with most of the representatives of Iran's contemporary
    political plane, the `secular' A. Larijani is not only the ideological
    follower of clergymen but also their representative.

    Second: A. Larijani, having enough conservative political ideas, is
    more than acceptable by the international community. It has come to be
    proved by the positive implication in reports and analyses of the
    western press in connection with his election. Heading the group
    engaged in negotiations with foreign countries on nuclear program, A.
    Larijani differs by his considerably mild position and steps made not
    only ones towards peaceful settlement of the nuclear program.

    Third: A. Larijani was relieved of the post of National security
    secretary by the president M. Ahmadinejad. According to a number of
    international sources it is mainly reasoned by contradictions and
    complicated interpersonal relations between them. In this sense the
    election of A. Larijani is more probable to be considered a
    propagandistic step by M Ahmadinejad, as only a little part of
    conservatives making majority in the parliament support the president
    and their position couldn't influence on the decision of all
    conservatives while electing A. Larijani to the post of the speaker.

    All these have come to prove that quite an influential politician is
    heading the Iranian parliament. The activity of this politician may
    seriously raise the role of Parliament in the country's political life.
    One of the peculiarities of Iran's state system is that the role of
    parliament mainly depends on its leader. Let's remember 1980-89s, when
    the speaker of Parliament was A.A. Hashemi-Rafsanjani ` one of the most
    important figures of Iran's state system who had direct influence on
    both home and foreign policy of the country.

    The course of events of the coming 2009 presidential elections in Iran
    will considerably depend on the parliament, the position of its members
    and the chairman. There is a great probability that A Larijani may
    become the candidate of a considerable part of conservatives, in that
    way reducing the chances of M. Ahmadinejad to be reelection.

    Teheran's mayor, Mohammed Baker Kalibaf, is considered another possible
    candidate; however his nomination for presidency will mainly be
    conditioned by agreements with the very A. Larijani as at the last
    presidential elections Teheran's mayor and the newly elected speaker of
    Parliament appeared in the framework of one political alliance.

    Foreign challenges
    During the past months the political developments around Iran became
    quite complicated. Iran's tough position towards the nuclear problem
    hasn't changed at all as a result of which in July-August of the
    current year the Iranian nuclear program will again be discussed in the
    UN Security Council. Should we judge by the announcements made by the
    Iranian president, the coming months are not expected to bring any
    mollification in Iran's position. And this may cause new sanctions and
    further isolation of Iran. It is possible that the new package of
    sanctions, which may be applied to Iran, will have direct influence on
    Iran's financial relation with the external world. This has come to be
    proved by the appeal of the president M. Ahmadinejad made on June 9 to
    the Iranian businessmen, state and private structures to withdraw all
    their funds from European banks. According to some information, Iranian
    funds in European banks make $80 billion, and their possible `arrest'
    may be a serious strike to the Iranian economy. Here one should take
    into consideration two more circumstances:

    Withdrawal of Iranian funds from European banks may also cause damage
    to financial stability of Europe itself. It means that the appeal of
    Iran's president may also be of propagandistic character and become the
    lever of influence on the Europeans' position.
    The policy adopted by M. Ahmadinejad stirs up discontent of the Iranian
    business circles having direct connection with the UN countries, as
    Europe is the economic partner number one for Iran both in the sphere
    import and export of goods: accordingly, the president's appeal is also
    a strike to Iranian business circles: they may not be passive
    participants at the coming presidential elections and must support this
    or that candidate. It is not excluded that the Iranian president's
    approach is connection with gaining a serious lever of influence on the
    country's businessmen.
    For Iran it is quite an important problem the further discussions on
    the Iranian issue in the UN SC. It is known that during the last years
    it has not been possible to apply sanctions to Iran because of the
    position of the two constant UN members - Russia and China. There are
    serious reasons to be concerned about possible changes in the position
    of these two countries.

    First: There is a newly elected president in Russia, who can't but have
    its own approaches to foreign political issues. Besides, in Russia and
    over its borders possible alleviation of tension between Russian-west
    relations is connected with D. Medvedev and his positions to topical
    international issues. For Iran it is also an important question how the
    further development in Russian-American relations may influence on the
    position of Russia to Iranian issues.

    Second: On the eve of Olympic Games expected to be held in China, the
    anti-China campaign of the US has become an important lever of
    influence in the hands of Washington not only on American-China
    relations, but also on China's approach to other states. Anti-China
    campaign held by the United States having domination position in the
    world information plane has made Beijing activate Chinese-American
    negotiations on different levels called to solve a number of vexed
    questions for Washington and Beijing. And under these conditions it is
    extremely important for Iran what kind of changes will be made in
    Beijing's official position to Iran's nuclear problem.

    Other issues of author
    ENTRANCE OF THE IRANIAN GAS INTO EUROPE [17.04.2008]
    NEW DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM [31.03.2008]
    US-TURKEY-AZERBAIJAN: A FORMAT OF NEW ENERGY COOPERATION [20.03.2008]
    ON THE REGIONAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS [03.03.2008]
    IRAN ON THE EVE OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS [14.02.2008]
    ON A NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS LEFT OUT OF COVERAGE IN 2007
    [21.01.2008]
    The visit of the RF President V.Putin to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan
    New restructuring on the regional energy map [21.06.2007]
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