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World Politics Review
July 10 2008
Unity of GUAM States Threatened in Efforts to Realize Energy Potential
Richard Weitz | Bio | 10 Jul 2008
World Politics Review Exclusive
Energy differences between Russia and European countries have created
an opportunity for the GUAM states -- Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan,
and Moldvoa -- to assume a more prominent role in Europe's
institutional architecture. Until now, the GUAM has been overshadowed
by more prominent institutions such as NATO, the European Union, and
the Commonwealth of Independent States.
Most recent attention has focused on how GUAM might help EU members
pursue their energy diversification strategy. GUAM includes both
energy-producing (Azerbaijan) and energy-transit (Azerbaijan again but
also Georgia and potentially Ukraine) countries. The pivotal
geographic location of GUAM members -- which have direct access to the
Caspian, Black and Baltic Sea regions -- reinforces their energy
potential.
For the past few months, the GUAM governments have been preoccupied
with a project to create an Odessa-Brody-Gdansk oil pipeline that
would transport oil that has already entered the Black Sea region from
the energy-rich Caspian Basin countries first to Ukraine and then onto
other parts of Europe. At present, the Odessa-Brody segment runs in
the opposite direction, north to south, transporting oil from Russia
to oil tankers in the Black Sea. GUAM members and their European and
American partners envisage reversing this flow and adding an extension
to Poland's Baltic Sea port of Gdansk.
The governments of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Lithuania, and Poland
commissioned a feasibility study on the project at their Vilnius
energy summit in October 2007. The new route, which could begin
operating as early as 2011, would allow European countries to receive
oil through a pipeline that circumvents Russian territory and Moscow's
control, helping meet the EU strategy of reducing dependence on
Russian energy.
At the June 30-July 1, 2008, GUAM summit in Batumi, Georgia,
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Georgian President Mikhail
Saakashvili, and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko reaffirmed
plans for GUAM to become a major player in Eurasian energy and
transportation issues. Polish President Lech Kaczynski and Lithuanian
President Valdas Adamkus also attended the summit. The five leaders
signed a declaration entitled, "GUAM--Uniting Europe's East." The text
specifically called for "development and full-scale utilization of the
Member States' transit potential" and restated the presidents'
determination to promote international energy security by helping
Europe diversify its energy sources.
"We have jointly implemented major energy projects which completely
changed the political situation in the region," Aliyev told
journalists after the Batumi summit. "We now have a new project, the
Odessa-Brody-Gdansk plan. The Caspian, Black Sea and Baltic regions
are united in ensuring energy security."
Despite GUAM's increasing activity in the energy realm, the
institution suffers from several weaknesses that continue to limit its
potential in this and other spheres. First, its member governments all
confront actual or potential separatist movements that complicate
their efforts to move closer towards Euro-Atlantic
institutions. Second, Russian officials dislike the group while many
West European governments and EU bodies continue to ignore it. Third,
the GUAM countries either depend heavily on Russian energy imports or,
in the case of Azerbaijan, rely on Russian-controlled pipelines for
some of their energy exports. Fourth, GUAM members remain acutely
vulnerable to pressure from Russian energy suppliers and
political-military groups having ties with regional separatists.
Finally, the members' diverse domestic and foreign policies leads them
to offer varying levels of support for GUAM as well as to advocate
divergent policies within the organization.
In this latter respect, GUAM's fortunes depend heavily on the future
of the democracy movements that underpinned its recent revival. The
rejuvenation of GUAM after 2005 was due to the color revolutions in
Ukraine and Georgia. The driving forces behind the resurrection of
GUAM have unquestionably been Viktor Yushchenko and Mikhail
Saakashvili. The Ukrainian government currently provides most of the
financial backing for the organization and houses its headquarters at
symbolic Independence Square in Kiev. For its part, Tbilisi has been a
major advocate for drawing GUAM into resolving the frozen conflicts
affecting Georgia and other GUAM members.
GUAM's prospects also depend heavily on the status of Moldova and
Azerbaijan. Their governments are less committed to pro-Western
foreign policies or democratic values than those of Georgia and
Ukraine. Russian officials have sought to exploit these differences to
weaken GUAM, perhaps even by inducing the withdrawal of Moldova or
Azerbaijan, as occurred when Uzbekistan reoriented its policies
towards Moscow during the 2002-2005 period.
At present, the government of Moldova appears to be the weakest
link. Although Moldovan authorities have periodically used ties with
GUAM to pressure Moscow, Moldova has sought to avoid an overt
confrontation with the Kremlin given its dependence on Russian energy
supplies and desire to secure a Russian military withdrawal from the
breakaway region of Transdniestria.
Instead of attending the June 2007 GUAM summit in Baku, moreover,
Moldova's President Vladimir Voronin flew to Moscow to discuss
Transdniestria with then Russian President Vladimir Putin. Voronin
also skipped the most recent GUAM summit, leaving Interior Minister
Valentin Mejinski and Deputy Foreign Minister Valeriu Ostalep to
represent Moldova at Batumi. They were upstaged by non-members
Lithuania and Poland, whose presidents attended and signed the summit
declaration despite their countries' nonmember status.
In an interview with Russian newspaper Kommersant in March, Voronin
complained that GUAM's new focus on Caspian-Baltic-Black Sea energy
corridors did little to benefit Moldova, which does not lie along the
planned pipeline routes. He warned that Moldova would not remain in
the group "if there is no economic interest" for the country.
On the last day of the most recent Batumi summit, Moldovan
Parliamentary Speaker Marian Lupu fretted that Moldova valued GUAM
because of its potential economic contributions, but that the
organization's new focus on political issues meant that these economic
projects "have now been placed on the backburner." As long as Moldova
is vulnerable to Russian retaliation regarding both its energy
supplies and Transdniestria, it will remain a lagging member of the
GUAM.
But, the policies of Azerbaijan will probably most affect GUAM in the
near term. Like Moldova, Azerbaijani officials remain unwilling to
commit fully to Euro-Atlantic integration. In addition, Western
governments and democracy advocacy groups have heavily criticized the
administration of Ilham Aliyev for failing to hold free and fair
elections, as required by the GUAM Charter.
Furthermore, Azerbaijan has traditionally sought to pursue a policy of
balance between Russia and the West. Unlike Georgia and Ukraine, for
instance, the Azerbaijani government is not formally seeking NATO
membership. Azerbaijanis also hope to induce Moscow to pressure
Armenia to withdraw its troops from Azerbaijani territory occupied
during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
GUAM's future will depend heavily on continued access to Azerbaijan's
energy and economic resources as well as the country's pivotal
geographic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. Although the
organization could probably survive Moldova's departure, Azerbaijan's
withdrawal would likely move it back into obscurity.
Richard Weitz is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a World
Politics Review contributing editor.
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?i d=2408
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
July 10 2008
Unity of GUAM States Threatened in Efforts to Realize Energy Potential
Richard Weitz | Bio | 10 Jul 2008
World Politics Review Exclusive
Energy differences between Russia and European countries have created
an opportunity for the GUAM states -- Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan,
and Moldvoa -- to assume a more prominent role in Europe's
institutional architecture. Until now, the GUAM has been overshadowed
by more prominent institutions such as NATO, the European Union, and
the Commonwealth of Independent States.
Most recent attention has focused on how GUAM might help EU members
pursue their energy diversification strategy. GUAM includes both
energy-producing (Azerbaijan) and energy-transit (Azerbaijan again but
also Georgia and potentially Ukraine) countries. The pivotal
geographic location of GUAM members -- which have direct access to the
Caspian, Black and Baltic Sea regions -- reinforces their energy
potential.
For the past few months, the GUAM governments have been preoccupied
with a project to create an Odessa-Brody-Gdansk oil pipeline that
would transport oil that has already entered the Black Sea region from
the energy-rich Caspian Basin countries first to Ukraine and then onto
other parts of Europe. At present, the Odessa-Brody segment runs in
the opposite direction, north to south, transporting oil from Russia
to oil tankers in the Black Sea. GUAM members and their European and
American partners envisage reversing this flow and adding an extension
to Poland's Baltic Sea port of Gdansk.
The governments of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Lithuania, and Poland
commissioned a feasibility study on the project at their Vilnius
energy summit in October 2007. The new route, which could begin
operating as early as 2011, would allow European countries to receive
oil through a pipeline that circumvents Russian territory and Moscow's
control, helping meet the EU strategy of reducing dependence on
Russian energy.
At the June 30-July 1, 2008, GUAM summit in Batumi, Georgia,
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Georgian President Mikhail
Saakashvili, and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko reaffirmed
plans for GUAM to become a major player in Eurasian energy and
transportation issues. Polish President Lech Kaczynski and Lithuanian
President Valdas Adamkus also attended the summit. The five leaders
signed a declaration entitled, "GUAM--Uniting Europe's East." The text
specifically called for "development and full-scale utilization of the
Member States' transit potential" and restated the presidents'
determination to promote international energy security by helping
Europe diversify its energy sources.
"We have jointly implemented major energy projects which completely
changed the political situation in the region," Aliyev told
journalists after the Batumi summit. "We now have a new project, the
Odessa-Brody-Gdansk plan. The Caspian, Black Sea and Baltic regions
are united in ensuring energy security."
Despite GUAM's increasing activity in the energy realm, the
institution suffers from several weaknesses that continue to limit its
potential in this and other spheres. First, its member governments all
confront actual or potential separatist movements that complicate
their efforts to move closer towards Euro-Atlantic
institutions. Second, Russian officials dislike the group while many
West European governments and EU bodies continue to ignore it. Third,
the GUAM countries either depend heavily on Russian energy imports or,
in the case of Azerbaijan, rely on Russian-controlled pipelines for
some of their energy exports. Fourth, GUAM members remain acutely
vulnerable to pressure from Russian energy suppliers and
political-military groups having ties with regional separatists.
Finally, the members' diverse domestic and foreign policies leads them
to offer varying levels of support for GUAM as well as to advocate
divergent policies within the organization.
In this latter respect, GUAM's fortunes depend heavily on the future
of the democracy movements that underpinned its recent revival. The
rejuvenation of GUAM after 2005 was due to the color revolutions in
Ukraine and Georgia. The driving forces behind the resurrection of
GUAM have unquestionably been Viktor Yushchenko and Mikhail
Saakashvili. The Ukrainian government currently provides most of the
financial backing for the organization and houses its headquarters at
symbolic Independence Square in Kiev. For its part, Tbilisi has been a
major advocate for drawing GUAM into resolving the frozen conflicts
affecting Georgia and other GUAM members.
GUAM's prospects also depend heavily on the status of Moldova and
Azerbaijan. Their governments are less committed to pro-Western
foreign policies or democratic values than those of Georgia and
Ukraine. Russian officials have sought to exploit these differences to
weaken GUAM, perhaps even by inducing the withdrawal of Moldova or
Azerbaijan, as occurred when Uzbekistan reoriented its policies
towards Moscow during the 2002-2005 period.
At present, the government of Moldova appears to be the weakest
link. Although Moldovan authorities have periodically used ties with
GUAM to pressure Moscow, Moldova has sought to avoid an overt
confrontation with the Kremlin given its dependence on Russian energy
supplies and desire to secure a Russian military withdrawal from the
breakaway region of Transdniestria.
Instead of attending the June 2007 GUAM summit in Baku, moreover,
Moldova's President Vladimir Voronin flew to Moscow to discuss
Transdniestria with then Russian President Vladimir Putin. Voronin
also skipped the most recent GUAM summit, leaving Interior Minister
Valentin Mejinski and Deputy Foreign Minister Valeriu Ostalep to
represent Moldova at Batumi. They were upstaged by non-members
Lithuania and Poland, whose presidents attended and signed the summit
declaration despite their countries' nonmember status.
In an interview with Russian newspaper Kommersant in March, Voronin
complained that GUAM's new focus on Caspian-Baltic-Black Sea energy
corridors did little to benefit Moldova, which does not lie along the
planned pipeline routes. He warned that Moldova would not remain in
the group "if there is no economic interest" for the country.
On the last day of the most recent Batumi summit, Moldovan
Parliamentary Speaker Marian Lupu fretted that Moldova valued GUAM
because of its potential economic contributions, but that the
organization's new focus on political issues meant that these economic
projects "have now been placed on the backburner." As long as Moldova
is vulnerable to Russian retaliation regarding both its energy
supplies and Transdniestria, it will remain a lagging member of the
GUAM.
But, the policies of Azerbaijan will probably most affect GUAM in the
near term. Like Moldova, Azerbaijani officials remain unwilling to
commit fully to Euro-Atlantic integration. In addition, Western
governments and democracy advocacy groups have heavily criticized the
administration of Ilham Aliyev for failing to hold free and fair
elections, as required by the GUAM Charter.
Furthermore, Azerbaijan has traditionally sought to pursue a policy of
balance between Russia and the West. Unlike Georgia and Ukraine, for
instance, the Azerbaijani government is not formally seeking NATO
membership. Azerbaijanis also hope to induce Moscow to pressure
Armenia to withdraw its troops from Azerbaijani territory occupied
during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
GUAM's future will depend heavily on continued access to Azerbaijan's
energy and economic resources as well as the country's pivotal
geographic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. Although the
organization could probably survive Moldova's departure, Azerbaijan's
withdrawal would likely move it back into obscurity.
Richard Weitz is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a World
Politics Review contributing editor.
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?i d=2408
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress