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GROWTH RATE IN CITY ON DECLINE
Nicole Charky
Glendale News Press
July 14 2008
CA
Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and Glendale senior planner show
recent boom is slowing.
Published: Last Updated Sunday, July 13, 2008 10:24 PM PDT GLENDALE --
People are moving to Glendale at a less rapid rate than in the 1980s
and 1990s, and several lower-income families are leaving the city,
according to the city of Glendale and the U.S. Census Bureau.
But the declining growth rate is more complicated than just
lower-income families leaving, said Jeff Hamilton, senior city planner.
"It's a complex mix," Hamilton said. "I think the growth rate
[includes] more births, some of it is immigrants coming for
opportunities, I think we're seeing some of the retiree folks moving
away and some of the poorer families seeking better homes."
In the 1990 U.S. Census, a concentration of lower-income families
was in south Glendale, but in 2000 and the years following, some of
these neighborhoods became smaller, he said.
Hamilton said this is a pattern throughout Southern California.
"To me the best explanation is people are being driven out of
higher-priced housing," he said. "I think people are being priced
out of the market -- especially in coastal areas that are gaining
and losing population and moving to Moreno Valley, Lancaster or
Bakersfield. People with fewer kids are moving in, or they're simply
just having smaller families, and that helps them."
U.S. Census Bureau estimates released Thursday show that several
Southland cities have increased in population. In Victorville, the
population increased from 9.5 percent to 107,221. Irvine, Rancho
Cucamonga, Moreno Valley, Bakersfield and Fontana are included in the
census as some of the top 25 cities to increase rapidly in population
from 2000 to 2007.
Hamilton said the data he has studied does not show that the immigrant
or minority populations in Glendale have changed dramatically, he said.
"[The population] is continuing to grow, but much slower than in the
'80s or the '90s," he said. "In the '80s we added about 40,000 people;
in the '90s we added about 15,000. In the 2000s, so far we've added
about 10,000."
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Glendale's population reached
139,060 in 1980, 180,083 in 1990 and 194, 973 in 2000. The latest
report shows that Glendale has increased by 2,000 people since the
year 2000, which surprises Hamilton.
"It seems low to me," he said.
The census' statistical sampling accounts for only a portion of the
population -- not the entire city -- and Hamilton is unsure whether
this number is accurate.
"Just like I'm suspicious of the state's number," he said. "Based
on my experience, what my gut says is that [the population number]
is somewhere between the state and the census bureau's estimates."
The only changes Hamilton has seen in census research that relates
to the decline in California's population are fewer less births and
lower enrollment in schools.
"Immigrant groups are having smaller families," he said. "Latino
mothers are also having fewer children. The enrollment figures for
the Glendale school district are another indication that with people
with fewer kids, or smaller families, are moving to Glendale."
Hamilton is also curious about new data that will be available in
2010 on the Armenian population in Glendale.
"Until new data comes out in 2010 we don't really know about the
Armenian population," Hamilton said.
Nicole Charky
Glendale News Press
July 14 2008
CA
Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and Glendale senior planner show
recent boom is slowing.
Published: Last Updated Sunday, July 13, 2008 10:24 PM PDT GLENDALE --
People are moving to Glendale at a less rapid rate than in the 1980s
and 1990s, and several lower-income families are leaving the city,
according to the city of Glendale and the U.S. Census Bureau.
But the declining growth rate is more complicated than just
lower-income families leaving, said Jeff Hamilton, senior city planner.
"It's a complex mix," Hamilton said. "I think the growth rate
[includes] more births, some of it is immigrants coming for
opportunities, I think we're seeing some of the retiree folks moving
away and some of the poorer families seeking better homes."
In the 1990 U.S. Census, a concentration of lower-income families
was in south Glendale, but in 2000 and the years following, some of
these neighborhoods became smaller, he said.
Hamilton said this is a pattern throughout Southern California.
"To me the best explanation is people are being driven out of
higher-priced housing," he said. "I think people are being priced
out of the market -- especially in coastal areas that are gaining
and losing population and moving to Moreno Valley, Lancaster or
Bakersfield. People with fewer kids are moving in, or they're simply
just having smaller families, and that helps them."
U.S. Census Bureau estimates released Thursday show that several
Southland cities have increased in population. In Victorville, the
population increased from 9.5 percent to 107,221. Irvine, Rancho
Cucamonga, Moreno Valley, Bakersfield and Fontana are included in the
census as some of the top 25 cities to increase rapidly in population
from 2000 to 2007.
Hamilton said the data he has studied does not show that the immigrant
or minority populations in Glendale have changed dramatically, he said.
"[The population] is continuing to grow, but much slower than in the
'80s or the '90s," he said. "In the '80s we added about 40,000 people;
in the '90s we added about 15,000. In the 2000s, so far we've added
about 10,000."
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Glendale's population reached
139,060 in 1980, 180,083 in 1990 and 194, 973 in 2000. The latest
report shows that Glendale has increased by 2,000 people since the
year 2000, which surprises Hamilton.
"It seems low to me," he said.
The census' statistical sampling accounts for only a portion of the
population -- not the entire city -- and Hamilton is unsure whether
this number is accurate.
"Just like I'm suspicious of the state's number," he said. "Based
on my experience, what my gut says is that [the population number]
is somewhere between the state and the census bureau's estimates."
The only changes Hamilton has seen in census research that relates
to the decline in California's population are fewer less births and
lower enrollment in schools.
"Immigrant groups are having smaller families," he said. "Latino
mothers are also having fewer children. The enrollment figures for
the Glendale school district are another indication that with people
with fewer kids, or smaller families, are moving to Glendale."
Hamilton is also curious about new data that will be available in
2010 on the Armenian population in Glendale.
"Until new data comes out in 2010 we don't really know about the
Armenian population," Hamilton said.