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BAKU WALTZ POSTPONED FOR THE TIME BEING
Dmitri Yermolayev
WPS Agency
July 14, 2008 Monday
Russia
Medvedev's visit to Azerbaijan: Baku continues to sit on the fence;
Baku is continuing with its fence-sitting tactics while waiting for a
more favorable international situation. But this kind of diplomacy has
almost reached its limits. In its determination to distance Azerbaijan
from Russia, the West could leave Azerbaijan all alone to face the
question of recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh's independence.
President Dmitri Medvedev Enhanced Coverage LinkingDmitri Medvedev
-Search using: Biographies Plus News News, Most Recent 60 Days 's
first visit to Azerbaijan has drawn mixed reviews from analysts in
both Russia and Azerbaijan - for a number of reasons.
Baku had some political expectations for this visit - primarily with
regard to resolving the long-running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But
Moscow didn't offer a breakthrough in that area, since it is continuing
a policy of keeping an "equal distance" from both sides of the conflict
- or rather, keeping "equally close" to both Armenia and Azerbaijan,
while giving those countries the opportunity to resolve the conflict
on their own. The second factor is determined by the fact that Baku,
using diplomatic maneuvering within the former Soviet Union and in
the West, has distanced itself from Moscow to some extent and found
itself involved in the West's geopolitical projects aimed at creating
Caspian Sea hydrocarbon transport routes bypassing Russia. However,
Azeri diplomacy can't even boast of much success in this area, since
it has run up against the Armenian lobby. This lobby is strong in
the West - too strong for Azerbaijan, even with the support of Turkey
(which is also losing the competition with the Armenian lobby).
Under the circumstances, it was important for Russia to use President
Medvedev Enhanced Coverage LinkingPresident Medvedev -Search using:
Biographies Plus News News, Most Recent 60 Days 's visit as an
opportunity to establish political and diplomatic foundations for
long-term cooperation with Azerbaijan - the kind of foundations that
may be developed into a strategic cooperation program if certain
geopolitical conditions are met.
The visit achieved this purpose. During Medvedev's time in Baku,
Russia and Azerbaijan signed an indefinite Friendship and Strategic
Partnership Declaration. According to this document, Russia and
Azerbaijan will continue efforts to develop equal, mutually beneficial,
and constructive bilateral relations of a strategic nature. Both sides
confirmed their commitment to current arrangements under international
law with regard to the Caspian Sea.
However, Western analysts maintain that the chief indicator of
Azerbaijan's true intentions is its willingness to cooperate with
Russia in the fuel and energy sector. So this area was the main source
of suspense during the visit.
Baku justifies its participation in the West's oil and gas projects
by pointing out that although it has plenty of energy resources, it
lacks direct access to the global marketplace. But Gazprom has just
trumped this argument. Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller accompanied Medvedev
on the visit to Baku, and announced that Gazprom is prepared to buy
as much gas as possible from Azerbaijan, using market-based price
formation principles. And while Azerbaijan is still waiting for the
Nabucco project's pipeline to be completed, it can start selling gas
to Gazprom sooner - as of 2009.
In response, Baku said it would be prepared to consider the
Russian project - but only on equal terms with other export route
options. According to our Baku sources, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev
was walking close to the edge on this one: while promising Russia
"to consider new projects which are of mutual interest and would
facilitate maximally effective use of hydrocarbon resources," he veered
away from specifics at the last moment and essentially reduced the
"practical content" of Medvedev's visit. This happened because Baku
was under powerful pressure on this issue from the United States and
the European Union.
What happens next? To all appearances, Baku is continuing with its
fence-sitting tactics while waiting for a more favorable international
situation. But this kind of diplomacy has almost reached its
limits. In its determination to distance Azerbaijan from Russia,
the West could leave Azerbaijan all alone to face the question of
recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh's independence - a more immediate issue
now that Kosovo has set a precedent. In that event, Baku's oil and gas
would hardly suffice to maintain stability in Azerbaijan. Developments
could be similar to the 1918-20 scenario. Time will tell whether
Ilham Aliyev has the wisdom to avoid such an outcome.
Dmitri Yermolayev
WPS Agency
July 14, 2008 Monday
Russia
Medvedev's visit to Azerbaijan: Baku continues to sit on the fence;
Baku is continuing with its fence-sitting tactics while waiting for a
more favorable international situation. But this kind of diplomacy has
almost reached its limits. In its determination to distance Azerbaijan
from Russia, the West could leave Azerbaijan all alone to face the
question of recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh's independence.
President Dmitri Medvedev Enhanced Coverage LinkingDmitri Medvedev
-Search using: Biographies Plus News News, Most Recent 60 Days 's
first visit to Azerbaijan has drawn mixed reviews from analysts in
both Russia and Azerbaijan - for a number of reasons.
Baku had some political expectations for this visit - primarily with
regard to resolving the long-running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But
Moscow didn't offer a breakthrough in that area, since it is continuing
a policy of keeping an "equal distance" from both sides of the conflict
- or rather, keeping "equally close" to both Armenia and Azerbaijan,
while giving those countries the opportunity to resolve the conflict
on their own. The second factor is determined by the fact that Baku,
using diplomatic maneuvering within the former Soviet Union and in
the West, has distanced itself from Moscow to some extent and found
itself involved in the West's geopolitical projects aimed at creating
Caspian Sea hydrocarbon transport routes bypassing Russia. However,
Azeri diplomacy can't even boast of much success in this area, since
it has run up against the Armenian lobby. This lobby is strong in
the West - too strong for Azerbaijan, even with the support of Turkey
(which is also losing the competition with the Armenian lobby).
Under the circumstances, it was important for Russia to use President
Medvedev Enhanced Coverage LinkingPresident Medvedev -Search using:
Biographies Plus News News, Most Recent 60 Days 's visit as an
opportunity to establish political and diplomatic foundations for
long-term cooperation with Azerbaijan - the kind of foundations that
may be developed into a strategic cooperation program if certain
geopolitical conditions are met.
The visit achieved this purpose. During Medvedev's time in Baku,
Russia and Azerbaijan signed an indefinite Friendship and Strategic
Partnership Declaration. According to this document, Russia and
Azerbaijan will continue efforts to develop equal, mutually beneficial,
and constructive bilateral relations of a strategic nature. Both sides
confirmed their commitment to current arrangements under international
law with regard to the Caspian Sea.
However, Western analysts maintain that the chief indicator of
Azerbaijan's true intentions is its willingness to cooperate with
Russia in the fuel and energy sector. So this area was the main source
of suspense during the visit.
Baku justifies its participation in the West's oil and gas projects
by pointing out that although it has plenty of energy resources, it
lacks direct access to the global marketplace. But Gazprom has just
trumped this argument. Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller accompanied Medvedev
on the visit to Baku, and announced that Gazprom is prepared to buy
as much gas as possible from Azerbaijan, using market-based price
formation principles. And while Azerbaijan is still waiting for the
Nabucco project's pipeline to be completed, it can start selling gas
to Gazprom sooner - as of 2009.
In response, Baku said it would be prepared to consider the
Russian project - but only on equal terms with other export route
options. According to our Baku sources, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev
was walking close to the edge on this one: while promising Russia
"to consider new projects which are of mutual interest and would
facilitate maximally effective use of hydrocarbon resources," he veered
away from specifics at the last moment and essentially reduced the
"practical content" of Medvedev's visit. This happened because Baku
was under powerful pressure on this issue from the United States and
the European Union.
What happens next? To all appearances, Baku is continuing with its
fence-sitting tactics while waiting for a more favorable international
situation. But this kind of diplomacy has almost reached its
limits. In its determination to distance Azerbaijan from Russia,
the West could leave Azerbaijan all alone to face the question of
recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh's independence - a more immediate issue
now that Kosovo has set a precedent. In that event, Baku's oil and gas
would hardly suffice to maintain stability in Azerbaijan. Developments
could be similar to the 1918-20 scenario. Time will tell whether
Ilham Aliyev has the wisdom to avoid such an outcome.