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SERGEY MARKEDONOV: "WE WILL NOT MAKE IT UP WITH ARMENIANS FOR YOU"
Today.Az
http://www.today.az/news/polit ics/45460.html
June 5 2008
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with Sergey Markedonov, famous Russian political
scientist, chief of department for international relations of the
Institute for Political and Military Analysis.
- What do you think about the meeting of Presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan to be held in Saint-Petersburg?
- The forthcoming meeting of the two president will be of psychological
nature. Serzh Sarkissyan has just won the presidential elections. The
meeting was also prepared by newly appointed Foreign Minister Edward
Nalbandyan. It should be taken into account that the meeting of the
two Presidents will be held on the background of the recent undesired
events, evidencing, sharp worsening of bilateral relations between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Here, we can recall the large armed clash of March 5 of 2008 on the
contact front line, fixed since the moment of ceasefire agreement
signing, discussion of the Karabakh problem in the UN General
Assembly, declaration of the Armenian parliament about the need for
closer cooperation between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh, which means
a period of tough counteraction between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
- What is expected from the meeting of the presidents?
- Perhaps, there are expectations that "a new leader may turn
out to be more compliant"? Each new leader also wants to attain a
breakthrough. This can also be applied to Dmitri Medvedev in Russia
and Serzh Sarkissyan in Armenia. At the same time, both Medvedev and
Sarkissyan are only formal newcomers. Armenian President has serious
political experience. He has been the defense Minister and the Prime
Minister. Sarkissyan is biographically connected with Nagorno Karabakh,
where he started his career.
As for the Russian President, he is a member of Vladimir Putin's team,
who has not left the politics and continues to influence the Kremlin's
external policy.
I do not think that a breakthrough will be attained during the
meeting in Saint Petersburg. The meeting is more likely to be
accompanied by information war, high expectations and similarly high
disappoinment. The circle of positions will be repeated.
- Why?
- Because the positions of the parties are mutually exclusive. For
Azerbaijan this is primarily Armenia's aggression and for Armenia is
the fight of Nagorno Karabakh people for self-determination. These
factors do not give hope for any serious breakthrough in the
negotiation process.
Anyway, a meeting of the presidents is better than hostilities. But
one should not expect a breathrough during the meeting.
- Doesn't the newly elected president of Russia, who undertook to
arrange the meeting of the two Presidents of the conflicting countries,
attempt to demonstrate Moscow's role to settle frozen conflicts on
the post-Soviet area.
- Kremlin's role in the Caucasus region has not been defined by the
election of Dmitri Medvedev as president. Russia's role in this region
started to grow under Yeltsin. Ceasefire in Nagorno Karabakh conflict
was attained owing to the Russian diplomacy.
Vladimir Putin has also been active in this direction. Former Defense
Minister Sergey Ivanov, being in Baku twice, spoke of deployment
of Russian peacekeeping forces in the conflict area. Last year the
meeting of Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Robert Kocharyan was held in
Saint Petersbug on the same day during the informal summit of the CIS.
As is seen, Moscow's active participation in the settlement of
Nagorno Karabakh conflict started long before Medvedev was elected a
Presidemt. Russia is also partially a Caucasus state. Most processes,
related to Nagorno Karabakh, may affect the security of Moscow
itself. Both Armenians and Azerbaijanis are among top ten large ethnic
communities of Russia. Therefore, Moscow's interest is understandable.
The Kremlin, as a USSR successor, also bears responsibility for
political security on the post-Soviet area. I do not think that this
is exclusively Dmitri Medvedev's PR campaign.
Russian can not limit its activity by the OSCE Minsk Group
framework. Moscow tries to take the peacekeeping position.
- Do you agree that the key to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement
is in the Kremlin?
- No, I do not. The key to it is in Washington, Brussels, the United
Nations and in Nagorno Karabakh, like in Transdniestria, Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. Until the sides are ready for minimal compromise,
external attempts will not be successful. External attempts could be
more active and effective.
Anyway, everything depends on the sides. We will not make it up with
Armenians for you.
Today.Az
http://www.today.az/news/polit ics/45460.html
June 5 2008
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with Sergey Markedonov, famous Russian political
scientist, chief of department for international relations of the
Institute for Political and Military Analysis.
- What do you think about the meeting of Presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan to be held in Saint-Petersburg?
- The forthcoming meeting of the two president will be of psychological
nature. Serzh Sarkissyan has just won the presidential elections. The
meeting was also prepared by newly appointed Foreign Minister Edward
Nalbandyan. It should be taken into account that the meeting of the
two Presidents will be held on the background of the recent undesired
events, evidencing, sharp worsening of bilateral relations between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Here, we can recall the large armed clash of March 5 of 2008 on the
contact front line, fixed since the moment of ceasefire agreement
signing, discussion of the Karabakh problem in the UN General
Assembly, declaration of the Armenian parliament about the need for
closer cooperation between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh, which means
a period of tough counteraction between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
- What is expected from the meeting of the presidents?
- Perhaps, there are expectations that "a new leader may turn
out to be more compliant"? Each new leader also wants to attain a
breakthrough. This can also be applied to Dmitri Medvedev in Russia
and Serzh Sarkissyan in Armenia. At the same time, both Medvedev and
Sarkissyan are only formal newcomers. Armenian President has serious
political experience. He has been the defense Minister and the Prime
Minister. Sarkissyan is biographically connected with Nagorno Karabakh,
where he started his career.
As for the Russian President, he is a member of Vladimir Putin's team,
who has not left the politics and continues to influence the Kremlin's
external policy.
I do not think that a breakthrough will be attained during the
meeting in Saint Petersburg. The meeting is more likely to be
accompanied by information war, high expectations and similarly high
disappoinment. The circle of positions will be repeated.
- Why?
- Because the positions of the parties are mutually exclusive. For
Azerbaijan this is primarily Armenia's aggression and for Armenia is
the fight of Nagorno Karabakh people for self-determination. These
factors do not give hope for any serious breakthrough in the
negotiation process.
Anyway, a meeting of the presidents is better than hostilities. But
one should not expect a breathrough during the meeting.
- Doesn't the newly elected president of Russia, who undertook to
arrange the meeting of the two Presidents of the conflicting countries,
attempt to demonstrate Moscow's role to settle frozen conflicts on
the post-Soviet area.
- Kremlin's role in the Caucasus region has not been defined by the
election of Dmitri Medvedev as president. Russia's role in this region
started to grow under Yeltsin. Ceasefire in Nagorno Karabakh conflict
was attained owing to the Russian diplomacy.
Vladimir Putin has also been active in this direction. Former Defense
Minister Sergey Ivanov, being in Baku twice, spoke of deployment
of Russian peacekeeping forces in the conflict area. Last year the
meeting of Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Robert Kocharyan was held in
Saint Petersbug on the same day during the informal summit of the CIS.
As is seen, Moscow's active participation in the settlement of
Nagorno Karabakh conflict started long before Medvedev was elected a
Presidemt. Russia is also partially a Caucasus state. Most processes,
related to Nagorno Karabakh, may affect the security of Moscow
itself. Both Armenians and Azerbaijanis are among top ten large ethnic
communities of Russia. Therefore, Moscow's interest is understandable.
The Kremlin, as a USSR successor, also bears responsibility for
political security on the post-Soviet area. I do not think that this
is exclusively Dmitri Medvedev's PR campaign.
Russian can not limit its activity by the OSCE Minsk Group
framework. Moscow tries to take the peacekeeping position.
- Do you agree that the key to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement
is in the Kremlin?
- No, I do not. The key to it is in Washington, Brussels, the United
Nations and in Nagorno Karabakh, like in Transdniestria, Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. Until the sides are ready for minimal compromise,
external attempts will not be successful. External attempts could be
more active and effective.
Anyway, everything depends on the sides. We will not make it up with
Armenians for you.