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ARMENIA'S BLOODY SATURDAY SHATTERS ELECTION DEADLOCK
Richard Weitz
World Politics Review
March 5 2008
On March 1, the conflict over the disputed outcome of last month's
presidential elections in Armenia turned deadly when riot police and
Interior Ministry troops clashed with armed opposition demonstrators
in the capital city. Dozens of people were killed or injured in
downtown Yerevan, where tens of thousands of Armenians had engaged
in round-the-clock street protests and established a makeshift tent
camp. The incident apparently started with a police tracer bullet
accidentally ricocheted and killed a demonstrator, enraging the
protesters to attack the police.
The government responded to the melee by declaring a state of
emergency in the capital and mobilizing the army to end the mass
rallies that had characterized Yerevan since the losing candidates
accused President Robert Kocharian of manipulating the results of
the Feb. 19 election. They claimed that Kocharian, prevented by the
constitution from running for a third term, resorted to buying votes,
rigging ballots, and using government resources, such as the state-run
media, to support the campaign of his preferred candidate, incumbent
Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian.
Armenia's central electoral commission declared that Sarkisian won
the election outright in the first round with 53 percent of the
vote, with former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosian, the main
opposition candidate, receiving only 21.5 percent. Former speaker
of the parliament, Artur Baghdasarian, obtained 17.7 percent of the
eligible votes.
Opposition leaders cited evidence of fraud and demanded annulment
of the Feb. 19 results and the holding of another ballot. Since the
elections, crowds of demonstrators had assembled in Freedom Square,
frequently shouting the slogan "Fight, fight to the end."
Ter-Petrosian appeared at several of the protest rallies and, at the
end of February, filed a formal complaint with Armenia's constitutional
court to overturn the declared results. Several senior government
officials, since dismissed, have broken with Kocharian and backed
Ter-Petrosian's claim of fraud.
On Feb. 29, however, Sarkisian secured the support of third-place
finisher Baghdasarian, who agreed to become Security Council secretary
in the next government, thereby bolstering its legitimacy.
The Council is the president's main advisory body; its leader is
considered the third or fourth highest-ranking official in the country.
Kocharian charged some protesters with attempting to launch a
coup d'etat. The president began his declaration of an emergency by
announcing that "the self-nominated candidate Levon Ter-Petrosian who
lost in the 2008 presidential election in the Republic of Armenia,
and a group of adventure-seekers surrounding him, without acknowledging
the reality of their defeat, took to illegal actions" by accumulating
and transporting weapons and holding public marches without notifying
the authorities.
The state of emergency, issued by Kocharian and subsequently approved
by the National Assembly, will remain in force until March 20. It
suspends several constitutional guarantees, such as the right to strike
and engage in public demonstrations, and imposes censorship, requiring
the local media to report only government-provided information. The
decree also endows the internal security forces with enhanced powers
to control the movement of people and vehicles.
Finally, it temporarily suspends activities of political parties and
other nongovernmental organizations.
"If participants in the disorder fire at police, I have no choice
but to resort to the army's help," Kocharian explained in televised
remarks following the clash. "And I am obliged to safeguard the safety
of our citizens." Opposition leaders claim that government provocateurs
placed firearms and other weapons near sleeping demonstrators in order
to justify suppressing the peaceful demonstrations. General Seyran
Ohanyan, the chief of the Armenian military staff, warned that the
military would respond to any mass gatherings during this period with
"very strong counteractions from Armenia's military forces."
Saying he hoped to limit further violence, Ter-Petrosian, then briefly
under house arrest, called on the demonstrators to end public protests
for the duration of the state of emergency. Most people appear to
have heeded his appeal, as well as government threats, to stay at
home, but scattered looting was reported. The New York Times noted the
incongruity of the strong support for Ter-Petroisian among the looters:
"'I'm fighting for honesty,' said a man in his 50s, holding a stolen
beer in one hand and a lemon in the other."
International observers offered varying assessments of the elections.
The 333 monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe (OSCE) found many local irregularities, especially in the
vote counting, but concluded that the process was "mostly" fair and
an improvement over earlier ballot. Some world leaders, most notably
Russian President Vladimir Putin, have congratulated Sarkisian on
winning the election.
Most Western governments have withheld formal endorsement, simply
congratulating the Armenian people for holding the election. For
example, U.S. State Department spokesperson Tom Casey issued a
statement saying, "We congratulate the people of Armenia on the active
and competitive presidential election," but added that "we also note
that international monitors identified significant problems with
electoral procedures." The department called on the authorities to
rectify these flaws by holding recounts and taking steps to ensure
future ballots are conducted better. "We also urge all political
forces to continue observing the rule of law and to work peacefully
and responsively for a democratic Armenia."
The events in Armenia eerily resemble recent developments in Georgia.
In early January 2008, Mikheil Saakashvili won a first-round victory in
the country's presidential election, garnering 53 percent of the vote,
while the second-place finisher received 27 percent. As in Armenia,
international electoral observers certified the results despite
criticizing instances of intimidation of opposition candidates,
procedural shortcomings in ballot counting, and an unwarranted boost
to the incumbent from his activities as head of state.
The previous November, Saakashvili had imposed a state of emergency
that suspended operations of the main opposition Imedi TV station
and ordering the police to use force to end the mass rallies that
had paralyzed downtown Tbilisi for a week. The protesters, hundreds
of whom were injured in the police crackdown, claimed they were
trying to defend Georgia's democratic system of government against
Saakashvili's attempts to acquire dictatorial powers. The president
accused the demonstrators of seeking to overthrow the government,
but international human rights groups and some foreign governments
criticized Saakashvili's move.
Somewhat ironically, a similar mass protest in 1998 compelled
Ter-Petrosian, whose reelection in 1996 was also tainted by charges
of irregularities, to resign as the country's first freely elected
president since Armenia regained independence in 1991. Critics recall
his presidency as being marked by the repression of opposition parties
and the death of at least one party activist held in police custody.
Ter-Petrosian has referred to the protests as a "democratic
revolution." Yet, his questionable past makes it difficult to
characterize the current situation as another colored revolution such
as those that occurred in several former Soviet republics during the
2003-2005 period.
Richard Weitz is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a World
Politics Review contributing editor.
Richard Weitz
World Politics Review
March 5 2008
On March 1, the conflict over the disputed outcome of last month's
presidential elections in Armenia turned deadly when riot police and
Interior Ministry troops clashed with armed opposition demonstrators
in the capital city. Dozens of people were killed or injured in
downtown Yerevan, where tens of thousands of Armenians had engaged
in round-the-clock street protests and established a makeshift tent
camp. The incident apparently started with a police tracer bullet
accidentally ricocheted and killed a demonstrator, enraging the
protesters to attack the police.
The government responded to the melee by declaring a state of
emergency in the capital and mobilizing the army to end the mass
rallies that had characterized Yerevan since the losing candidates
accused President Robert Kocharian of manipulating the results of
the Feb. 19 election. They claimed that Kocharian, prevented by the
constitution from running for a third term, resorted to buying votes,
rigging ballots, and using government resources, such as the state-run
media, to support the campaign of his preferred candidate, incumbent
Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian.
Armenia's central electoral commission declared that Sarkisian won
the election outright in the first round with 53 percent of the
vote, with former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosian, the main
opposition candidate, receiving only 21.5 percent. Former speaker
of the parliament, Artur Baghdasarian, obtained 17.7 percent of the
eligible votes.
Opposition leaders cited evidence of fraud and demanded annulment
of the Feb. 19 results and the holding of another ballot. Since the
elections, crowds of demonstrators had assembled in Freedom Square,
frequently shouting the slogan "Fight, fight to the end."
Ter-Petrosian appeared at several of the protest rallies and, at the
end of February, filed a formal complaint with Armenia's constitutional
court to overturn the declared results. Several senior government
officials, since dismissed, have broken with Kocharian and backed
Ter-Petrosian's claim of fraud.
On Feb. 29, however, Sarkisian secured the support of third-place
finisher Baghdasarian, who agreed to become Security Council secretary
in the next government, thereby bolstering its legitimacy.
The Council is the president's main advisory body; its leader is
considered the third or fourth highest-ranking official in the country.
Kocharian charged some protesters with attempting to launch a
coup d'etat. The president began his declaration of an emergency by
announcing that "the self-nominated candidate Levon Ter-Petrosian who
lost in the 2008 presidential election in the Republic of Armenia,
and a group of adventure-seekers surrounding him, without acknowledging
the reality of their defeat, took to illegal actions" by accumulating
and transporting weapons and holding public marches without notifying
the authorities.
The state of emergency, issued by Kocharian and subsequently approved
by the National Assembly, will remain in force until March 20. It
suspends several constitutional guarantees, such as the right to strike
and engage in public demonstrations, and imposes censorship, requiring
the local media to report only government-provided information. The
decree also endows the internal security forces with enhanced powers
to control the movement of people and vehicles.
Finally, it temporarily suspends activities of political parties and
other nongovernmental organizations.
"If participants in the disorder fire at police, I have no choice
but to resort to the army's help," Kocharian explained in televised
remarks following the clash. "And I am obliged to safeguard the safety
of our citizens." Opposition leaders claim that government provocateurs
placed firearms and other weapons near sleeping demonstrators in order
to justify suppressing the peaceful demonstrations. General Seyran
Ohanyan, the chief of the Armenian military staff, warned that the
military would respond to any mass gatherings during this period with
"very strong counteractions from Armenia's military forces."
Saying he hoped to limit further violence, Ter-Petrosian, then briefly
under house arrest, called on the demonstrators to end public protests
for the duration of the state of emergency. Most people appear to
have heeded his appeal, as well as government threats, to stay at
home, but scattered looting was reported. The New York Times noted the
incongruity of the strong support for Ter-Petroisian among the looters:
"'I'm fighting for honesty,' said a man in his 50s, holding a stolen
beer in one hand and a lemon in the other."
International observers offered varying assessments of the elections.
The 333 monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe (OSCE) found many local irregularities, especially in the
vote counting, but concluded that the process was "mostly" fair and
an improvement over earlier ballot. Some world leaders, most notably
Russian President Vladimir Putin, have congratulated Sarkisian on
winning the election.
Most Western governments have withheld formal endorsement, simply
congratulating the Armenian people for holding the election. For
example, U.S. State Department spokesperson Tom Casey issued a
statement saying, "We congratulate the people of Armenia on the active
and competitive presidential election," but added that "we also note
that international monitors identified significant problems with
electoral procedures." The department called on the authorities to
rectify these flaws by holding recounts and taking steps to ensure
future ballots are conducted better. "We also urge all political
forces to continue observing the rule of law and to work peacefully
and responsively for a democratic Armenia."
The events in Armenia eerily resemble recent developments in Georgia.
In early January 2008, Mikheil Saakashvili won a first-round victory in
the country's presidential election, garnering 53 percent of the vote,
while the second-place finisher received 27 percent. As in Armenia,
international electoral observers certified the results despite
criticizing instances of intimidation of opposition candidates,
procedural shortcomings in ballot counting, and an unwarranted boost
to the incumbent from his activities as head of state.
The previous November, Saakashvili had imposed a state of emergency
that suspended operations of the main opposition Imedi TV station
and ordering the police to use force to end the mass rallies that
had paralyzed downtown Tbilisi for a week. The protesters, hundreds
of whom were injured in the police crackdown, claimed they were
trying to defend Georgia's democratic system of government against
Saakashvili's attempts to acquire dictatorial powers. The president
accused the demonstrators of seeking to overthrow the government,
but international human rights groups and some foreign governments
criticized Saakashvili's move.
Somewhat ironically, a similar mass protest in 1998 compelled
Ter-Petrosian, whose reelection in 1996 was also tainted by charges
of irregularities, to resign as the country's first freely elected
president since Armenia regained independence in 1991. Critics recall
his presidency as being marked by the repression of opposition parties
and the death of at least one party activist held in police custody.
Ter-Petrosian has referred to the protests as a "democratic
revolution." Yet, his questionable past makes it difficult to
characterize the current situation as another colored revolution such
as those that occurred in several former Soviet republics during the
2003-2005 period.
Richard Weitz is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a World
Politics Review contributing editor.