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TROUBLING NEWS FROM THE CAUCASUS
Economist
http://www.economist.com/world /europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10809006
March 6 2008
UK
Bloodshed in Armenia worries both Russia and the West
THE day after Dmitry Medvedev's presidential victory, Moscow's leading
papers turned their attention away from the long-predicted result
to the unexpected bloodshed in Armenia. At least eight people were
killed in clashes between security forces and opposition supporters
protesting against alleged fraud in the country's presidential
elections. "An election won with some blood", ran the headline in
Kommersant, a leading business daily.
Small, complicated and with names that are hard to spell, Armenia has
long been out of the mainstream of world news. Yet what happens in
this country has implications not only for the whole of the Caucasus,
a region vital for Europe's energy security, but also for Russia. The
story of rigged elections, corrupt officials and dead protesters is
particularly unnerving for Russia, a country that prides itself on
its stability.
On February 19th Armenia held presidential elections. The incumbent
prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, assisted by a biased media and
occasional stuffing of the ballot boxes, won 53% of the vote. If the
election had been conducted fairly, there is a good chance he would
have faced a second round and a possible defeat. But Mr Sarkisian
had the backing of Robert Kocharian, the current president, which
swung the result. (Mr Kocharian, it is said, fancies the job of prime
minister-not unlike his Russian counterpart.)
International observers did not cover themselves in glory. The
Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe pointed out many
shortcomings, yet said in an initial statement that the ballot was
"mostly in line with the country's international commitments".
The opposition, led by Levon Ter-Petrosian, an academic and Armenia's
first president, demanded a re-run of the election. His supporters
took to the streets. Mr Ter-Petrosian is no democratic angel. In 1996
he is widely believed to have rigged the presidential election in
his favour. Still, those who voted for him this time did so largely
in protest against the local mafia, corruption and unemployment now
associated with Mr Kocharian.
For 11 days the government put up with the peaceful protest. But
on March 1st, the police moved in on the pretext that protesters
were carrying firearms, which some observers say were planted. Mr
Ter-Petrosian was placed under de facto house arrest and the crowd
was dispersed. Predictably it regrouped and gathered in front of the
French embassy in Yerevan. Mr Kocharian sent in the army, and the
area was soon lit up with tracer fire.
Eight people were killed, cars were torched and shops were looted.
Many protesters were armed with stones and metal poles. But the
responsibility ultimately lies with the government which allowed
the situation to deteriorate into chaos. The state of emergency now
imposed by Mr Kocharian for 20 days, including a media blackout and the
arrest of opposition figures, may temporarily suppress the protests,
but it is unlikely to resolve the underlying problems.
These include corruption, low living standards and an economic
blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey because of Nagorno-Karabakh,
the Armenian-populated enclave inside Azerbaijan that was conquered
by Armenia in 1994. This conflict has long been frozen. But three
days after the violence in Yerevan, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces
were involved in their worst firefight in a decade. Both Armenia and
Azerbaijan accuse each other of starting the skirmish, which caused
a disputed number of deaths on both sides.
Claiming that Kosovo's declaration of independence last month has
emboldened Armenian separatists, Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliev,
has given warning that he is buying weapons to retake Nagorno-Karabakh
by force, if necessary. A renewed war could destabilise the region
and jeopardise a strategic oil pipeline to Turkey that runs only 15
kilometres (ten miles) from the ceasefire line.
Nagorno-Karabakh remains an open sore. Mr Ter-Petrosian's downfall
in 1998 was mainly caused by his hints of a more flexible approach
to a peace settlement with Azerbaijan. Both Mr Kocharian and Mr
Sarkisian are from Nagorno-Karabakh and fought in the war, but they
have done little to move towards peace. In a recent commentary in
the Washington Post, Mr Ter-Petrosian dismissed the notion that only
hardliners from Nagorno-Karabakh can solve the conflict. Indeed, he
argues that Mr Sarkisian, whose presidency is now marred by bloodshed
and incompetence, will be even less able to govern.
Russia and the West have an interest in Armenia's stability, and
they need to work to maintain it. This could be Mr Medvedev's first
foreign test as president.
Economist
http://www.economist.com/world /europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10809006
March 6 2008
UK
Bloodshed in Armenia worries both Russia and the West
THE day after Dmitry Medvedev's presidential victory, Moscow's leading
papers turned their attention away from the long-predicted result
to the unexpected bloodshed in Armenia. At least eight people were
killed in clashes between security forces and opposition supporters
protesting against alleged fraud in the country's presidential
elections. "An election won with some blood", ran the headline in
Kommersant, a leading business daily.
Small, complicated and with names that are hard to spell, Armenia has
long been out of the mainstream of world news. Yet what happens in
this country has implications not only for the whole of the Caucasus,
a region vital for Europe's energy security, but also for Russia. The
story of rigged elections, corrupt officials and dead protesters is
particularly unnerving for Russia, a country that prides itself on
its stability.
On February 19th Armenia held presidential elections. The incumbent
prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, assisted by a biased media and
occasional stuffing of the ballot boxes, won 53% of the vote. If the
election had been conducted fairly, there is a good chance he would
have faced a second round and a possible defeat. But Mr Sarkisian
had the backing of Robert Kocharian, the current president, which
swung the result. (Mr Kocharian, it is said, fancies the job of prime
minister-not unlike his Russian counterpart.)
International observers did not cover themselves in glory. The
Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe pointed out many
shortcomings, yet said in an initial statement that the ballot was
"mostly in line with the country's international commitments".
The opposition, led by Levon Ter-Petrosian, an academic and Armenia's
first president, demanded a re-run of the election. His supporters
took to the streets. Mr Ter-Petrosian is no democratic angel. In 1996
he is widely believed to have rigged the presidential election in
his favour. Still, those who voted for him this time did so largely
in protest against the local mafia, corruption and unemployment now
associated with Mr Kocharian.
For 11 days the government put up with the peaceful protest. But
on March 1st, the police moved in on the pretext that protesters
were carrying firearms, which some observers say were planted. Mr
Ter-Petrosian was placed under de facto house arrest and the crowd
was dispersed. Predictably it regrouped and gathered in front of the
French embassy in Yerevan. Mr Kocharian sent in the army, and the
area was soon lit up with tracer fire.
Eight people were killed, cars were torched and shops were looted.
Many protesters were armed with stones and metal poles. But the
responsibility ultimately lies with the government which allowed
the situation to deteriorate into chaos. The state of emergency now
imposed by Mr Kocharian for 20 days, including a media blackout and the
arrest of opposition figures, may temporarily suppress the protests,
but it is unlikely to resolve the underlying problems.
These include corruption, low living standards and an economic
blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey because of Nagorno-Karabakh,
the Armenian-populated enclave inside Azerbaijan that was conquered
by Armenia in 1994. This conflict has long been frozen. But three
days after the violence in Yerevan, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces
were involved in their worst firefight in a decade. Both Armenia and
Azerbaijan accuse each other of starting the skirmish, which caused
a disputed number of deaths on both sides.
Claiming that Kosovo's declaration of independence last month has
emboldened Armenian separatists, Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliev,
has given warning that he is buying weapons to retake Nagorno-Karabakh
by force, if necessary. A renewed war could destabilise the region
and jeopardise a strategic oil pipeline to Turkey that runs only 15
kilometres (ten miles) from the ceasefire line.
Nagorno-Karabakh remains an open sore. Mr Ter-Petrosian's downfall
in 1998 was mainly caused by his hints of a more flexible approach
to a peace settlement with Azerbaijan. Both Mr Kocharian and Mr
Sarkisian are from Nagorno-Karabakh and fought in the war, but they
have done little to move towards peace. In a recent commentary in
the Washington Post, Mr Ter-Petrosian dismissed the notion that only
hardliners from Nagorno-Karabakh can solve the conflict. Indeed, he
argues that Mr Sarkisian, whose presidency is now marred by bloodshed
and incompetence, will be even less able to govern.
Russia and the West have an interest in Armenia's stability, and
they need to work to maintain it. This could be Mr Medvedev's first
foreign test as president.