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THE SECOND 'NORTHERN CYPRUS' MISCALCULATION OF THE AUTHORITIES
by Zahid Safaroglu
Yeni Musavat
March 2 2008
Azerbaijan
Or, who is the key guarantor of our independence: West, or Russia?
The Azerbaijani authorities continue to surprise everyone with their
own reaction to the processes around the Kosovo's independence. The
reason is official Baku's hasty and extremely tough reaction to the
matter from the onset. This, in its turn, is giving way to other
wrong and dangerous steps.
What causes concern is that Baku's position is against the
world's leading powers as well as the USA, which is directing the
global policy, and other influential Western states. This is also
diametrically opposite to the approaches of the fraternal Turkey,
influential international organizations and as a whole, of the
democratic world. This is despite the fact that Western states and
organizations, friendly Turkey, and Kosovo itself, have been saying
for a while that the Kosovo issue is unique and will in no way to
set a precedent.
As if out of spite, the Azerbaijani authorities with their own
steps are trying to prove the opposite. Even a special statement
by the USA with regard to Karabakh, including a statement by the
OSCE chairman-in-office in Baku two days ago that "the organization
supports Azerbaijan's territorial integrity irrevocably" (such a
statement has never been issued with regard to Serbia) has not made
our government to be realistic about the situation. With its decision
to withdraw the peacekeepers (who are part of a Turkish regiment)
from Kosovo the authorities are trying to prove that Karabakh and
Kosovo are identical problems.
One cannot but treat this approach as a "quarrel for nothing"
intention. Incidentally, a short while before Kosovo announced its
independence, we wrote that maybe it would be better for Azerbaijan
to recognize Kosovo's independence and demonstrate that these issues
are indeed different and to be with the strong party the West. We
understand it is difficult, but there was also no point in being
extremely radical without leaving any space for manipulation. We know
that one never says "never" in politics.
No contact with Turkey over Kosovo
It would have been at least possible to synchronize positions with
fraternal Turkey. We are confident that such discussions were not
conducted and are not the case now. Or, it was at least possible to
have consultations with well-known political experts and politicians
of the country to have an optimum option worked out. Anyway, Kosovo
is closer to us and is geographically located in the centre of Europe
and made up of an ethnicity historically close to Turkey and will
any time in the future join NATO. I wonder, do we not also strive
for NATO and the West?
Some observers believe that with this approach, Baku wants to show
to its largest neighbour that it sees eye to eye with it. However, it
should not forget that the main guarantor of our independence is not
Russia but the West. What shall we win with our move to go against the
democratic world, fraternal Turkey, America? Do we not set our hopes on
the very West and Turkey for a fair resolution of the Karabakh problem?
I wish we were earnest about cautious approaches of neighbouring
Georgia and Armenia in relation to this issue. For example, Georgia
has also its military contingent in Kosovo. However, despite double
problems like Karabakh (moreover, these serious problems are directly
under the control of Russia), official Tbilisi did not show a tough
position like Baku did.
If official Baku's logic were correct, then Armenia would have also
recognized Kosovo's independence without taking heed of Russia's
position because at issue is its national interests. However, this
was not the case. On the contrary, Yerevan officials are cautiously
saying that Kosovo is different from Karabakh.
Lack of national security concept
These all once again manifest that the Azerbaijani authorities have
not had so far a complete and well thought-out foreign policy course
as well as an effective Karabakh conception. This is also a result of
the absence of a conception of the national security, which has been
under preparation for a long time and has not been so far completed,
including its unpreparedness for force majeure circumstances. Just
imagine, although the country's experienced political pundits and
experts on conflicts, who know subtle aspects of the Western politics,
advise against making hasty and imprudent steps, they want to show
that they are more Catholic that the Pope.
Here is a fresh fact: Addressing a session of the OSCE Parliamentary
Assembly last week on behalf of Azerbaijan, Bahar Muradova, (Why she?
We wonder, was it impossible to select and dispatch a parliamentarian
well-versed in international law) expressed the same attitude from
the rostrum of the session and said that Kosovo set a precedent.
Another unsuccessful approach. Although, representatives of 25
countries (15 of them have already recognized Kosovo's independence),
to put it in Muradova's own words, said that Kosovo was a unique case
and would in no case set a precedent. In other words, they expressed
a position completely opposite to what Azerbaijan said.
What else do we want? Why do we allow the isolation of the country in
this way? Political expert Elxan Mehdiyev is right at one point. He
says that Azerbaijan has thrown itself into a hole. In the meantime,
we remember a statement President Ilham Aliyev made in his first
year as president. He said he would recognize Northern Cyprus, which
turned out to be unrealistic and was soon retracted. Seemingly,
Baku has again made a similar mistake.
by Zahid Safaroglu
Yeni Musavat
March 2 2008
Azerbaijan
Or, who is the key guarantor of our independence: West, or Russia?
The Azerbaijani authorities continue to surprise everyone with their
own reaction to the processes around the Kosovo's independence. The
reason is official Baku's hasty and extremely tough reaction to the
matter from the onset. This, in its turn, is giving way to other
wrong and dangerous steps.
What causes concern is that Baku's position is against the
world's leading powers as well as the USA, which is directing the
global policy, and other influential Western states. This is also
diametrically opposite to the approaches of the fraternal Turkey,
influential international organizations and as a whole, of the
democratic world. This is despite the fact that Western states and
organizations, friendly Turkey, and Kosovo itself, have been saying
for a while that the Kosovo issue is unique and will in no way to
set a precedent.
As if out of spite, the Azerbaijani authorities with their own
steps are trying to prove the opposite. Even a special statement
by the USA with regard to Karabakh, including a statement by the
OSCE chairman-in-office in Baku two days ago that "the organization
supports Azerbaijan's territorial integrity irrevocably" (such a
statement has never been issued with regard to Serbia) has not made
our government to be realistic about the situation. With its decision
to withdraw the peacekeepers (who are part of a Turkish regiment)
from Kosovo the authorities are trying to prove that Karabakh and
Kosovo are identical problems.
One cannot but treat this approach as a "quarrel for nothing"
intention. Incidentally, a short while before Kosovo announced its
independence, we wrote that maybe it would be better for Azerbaijan
to recognize Kosovo's independence and demonstrate that these issues
are indeed different and to be with the strong party the West. We
understand it is difficult, but there was also no point in being
extremely radical without leaving any space for manipulation. We know
that one never says "never" in politics.
No contact with Turkey over Kosovo
It would have been at least possible to synchronize positions with
fraternal Turkey. We are confident that such discussions were not
conducted and are not the case now. Or, it was at least possible to
have consultations with well-known political experts and politicians
of the country to have an optimum option worked out. Anyway, Kosovo
is closer to us and is geographically located in the centre of Europe
and made up of an ethnicity historically close to Turkey and will
any time in the future join NATO. I wonder, do we not also strive
for NATO and the West?
Some observers believe that with this approach, Baku wants to show
to its largest neighbour that it sees eye to eye with it. However, it
should not forget that the main guarantor of our independence is not
Russia but the West. What shall we win with our move to go against the
democratic world, fraternal Turkey, America? Do we not set our hopes on
the very West and Turkey for a fair resolution of the Karabakh problem?
I wish we were earnest about cautious approaches of neighbouring
Georgia and Armenia in relation to this issue. For example, Georgia
has also its military contingent in Kosovo. However, despite double
problems like Karabakh (moreover, these serious problems are directly
under the control of Russia), official Tbilisi did not show a tough
position like Baku did.
If official Baku's logic were correct, then Armenia would have also
recognized Kosovo's independence without taking heed of Russia's
position because at issue is its national interests. However, this
was not the case. On the contrary, Yerevan officials are cautiously
saying that Kosovo is different from Karabakh.
Lack of national security concept
These all once again manifest that the Azerbaijani authorities have
not had so far a complete and well thought-out foreign policy course
as well as an effective Karabakh conception. This is also a result of
the absence of a conception of the national security, which has been
under preparation for a long time and has not been so far completed,
including its unpreparedness for force majeure circumstances. Just
imagine, although the country's experienced political pundits and
experts on conflicts, who know subtle aspects of the Western politics,
advise against making hasty and imprudent steps, they want to show
that they are more Catholic that the Pope.
Here is a fresh fact: Addressing a session of the OSCE Parliamentary
Assembly last week on behalf of Azerbaijan, Bahar Muradova, (Why she?
We wonder, was it impossible to select and dispatch a parliamentarian
well-versed in international law) expressed the same attitude from
the rostrum of the session and said that Kosovo set a precedent.
Another unsuccessful approach. Although, representatives of 25
countries (15 of them have already recognized Kosovo's independence),
to put it in Muradova's own words, said that Kosovo was a unique case
and would in no case set a precedent. In other words, they expressed
a position completely opposite to what Azerbaijan said.
What else do we want? Why do we allow the isolation of the country in
this way? Political expert Elxan Mehdiyev is right at one point. He
says that Azerbaijan has thrown itself into a hole. In the meantime,
we remember a statement President Ilham Aliyev made in his first
year as president. He said he would recognize Northern Cyprus, which
turned out to be unrealistic and was soon retracted. Seemingly,
Baku has again made a similar mistake.