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Eduard Abrahamyan:
Armenia could play more important role in the region
Election of new Presidents in Armenian and Russia,
upcoming presidential election in Azerbaijan and shift
of leader in the White House will inevitably influence
on foreign policy of many states. It's especially
vivid in the South Caucasus. Armenia's relations with
neighbors and world powers depend on the republic's
foreign policy. Chairman of Mitq analytical center,
historian Eduard Abrahamyan comments to
PanARMENIAN.Net on his vision of the situation.
07.05.2008 GMT+04:00
What should be the priorities of Armenia's foreign
policy?
One of the priority tasks for Armenia's should be
settlement of liberated territories in Nagorno
Karabakh and support to NKR's foreign policy. The
Armenian-Azeri so-called consultations produced no
effect. With creation of the Kosovo precedent,
official Yerevan should recognize both Kosovo and
Nagorno Karabakh. With densely populated NKR, it will
be possible to prevent a new war between Karabakh and
Azerbaijan.
Another key task is cooperation with NATO and Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO), which claims to become
the major military-political bloc and a counterbalance
to the Alliance. Besides, our neighbor Iran has
already announced intention to join the SCO.
Yerevan's joining the Organization will open new
horizons and possibilities to participate in global
economic projects. Moreover, contrary to pro-western
Azerbaijan, Armenia can become an alternative for many
Asian gas exporters and act as transit country.
However, it doesn't mean that we should stand up
against NATO. What we should do is to assess the
situation and decide on the benefits we can gain from
cooperating with the blocs.
Strengthening of ties with states which are not
Armenia's military and strategic partners is also
important. To be self-sufficient we should get rid of
the complex of `a helpless nation' and develop viable
projects for consolidation of Armenian state system in
the South Caucasus.
How real is the end of Russia's presence in the South
Caucasus?
Presently, the Russia is not deciding `to be or not to
be' in the South Caucasus. Moscow has been trying to
strengthen its influence in the region so far. The
point is that Russia has two tools of pressure in
Georgia and none in Azerbaijan. It's quite obvious
that the Kremlin has for a long time Karabakh as a
pressing factor. Now, due to Artsakh's complete
isolation from Azerbaijan, the situation has changed.
Possibly, national tensions in north of Azerbaijan and
Baku's aggressive policy toward Dagestani-speaking
population can offer Moscow a chance for creating an
alternative factor.
However, Russia's unawareness of mentality and
capabilities of North Caucasus nations often resulted
in paralyzing of ethnic problems. This problem may be
viewed as omission by Armenia, which in the course of
15 years made no effort to convince Moscow of its
determination to finally resolve the `Azeri issue'.
Today, in the light of the U.S.-Turkey tensions, some
Russian forces speak out for stabilization of
relations with Ankara.
What's Armenia's actual role in the region?
In my opinion, Armenia could play a more important
role in the region, irrelative of the NKR issue or
blockade imposed by Turkey. The role of our state is
badly demanded over the lack of flexibility in the
foreign policy. Armenia proves unable to suppress the
growing anti-Armenian moods in Georgia. But as a
matter of fact, our republic could be an unofficial
guarantor of sustainable development of
Armenian-inhabited Samtskhe Javakheti and strengthen
Armenian economic and political influence on Ajaria
via promoting political and territorial autonomization
of Samtskhe Javakheti. It would force Georgia to
consider Yerevan's opinion. Ajaria and Samtskhe
Javakheti make the outlet toward to the Black Sea
which is the solution to the problem of blockade.
Let's look how Baku pursues its policy in Kvemo
Kartli, where plants and enterprises are established
with the Azerbaijani capital. Furthermore, political
consolidation of Azeri population in Georgia has
started with formation of regional political bodies
like the Azeri national assembly and the Party of
Azerbaijanis of Georgia.
To avoid a calamity, the new leadership of Armenia
should prevent Georgian assimilation and outflow of
Armenians from Samtskhe Javakheti via direct
investments in its economy and its transformation into
a political entity.
Is normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations
possible in the foreseeable future?
I wouldn't say. The fact is that Turkic solidarity is
gaining weight. Turkey is not interested in
independence and uncontrollable Armenia. During the
soviet era, Ankara was trying to weaken Russia's
influence and cement the Turkic bloc and Islamic
fundamentalism.
As to Georgia, it has to put up with the economic
expansion of Turkey, which under supervision of its
Western allies keeps on developing various scenarios
of so-called Turkish projects where Armenia is
perceived as a temporal political entity, completely
yielding to Azerbaijan.
However, despite political confrontation, I can't rule
out official economic ties between the two states,
especially because informal economic contacts has
existed and developed since Armenia proclaimed
independence
How do you assess Azerbaijan's policy toward Iran?
Azerbaijan is becoming a state which develops aims and
objectives for strengthening its influence in entire
Middle East. It has always pursued a balanced and
cautious policy toward Iran. Exploiting the factor of
Southern Azerbaijan, Baku is aspired to cause a split
in the Iranian society, thus playing in Washington's
hands, which views the situation as a good platform to
be used against Tehran.
However, Baku also tries to cooperate with Iran in
energy and commutation fields in order to isolate
Armenia fro regional projects.
Can Baku manipulate energy sources?
Baku has always viewed the energy and communication
resources as an extra political tool for gaining
maximal political concessions from its economic
companions. It specifically refers to the Karabakh
issue and Azerbaijan's influence in the region.
Nevertheless, many European states eye Azerbaijan as a
country which supplies energy sources bypassing Russia
and often satisfy its whims despite obvious
unwillingness to do so. Presently, Azerbaijan is by
all means trying to gain maximal benefits from Nabucco
project which will offer a possibility to leave
Armenia behind.
«PanARMENIAN.Net», 07.05.2008
Eduard Abrahamyan:
Armenia could play more important role in the region
Election of new Presidents in Armenian and Russia,
upcoming presidential election in Azerbaijan and shift
of leader in the White House will inevitably influence
on foreign policy of many states. It's especially
vivid in the South Caucasus. Armenia's relations with
neighbors and world powers depend on the republic's
foreign policy. Chairman of Mitq analytical center,
historian Eduard Abrahamyan comments to
PanARMENIAN.Net on his vision of the situation.
07.05.2008 GMT+04:00
What should be the priorities of Armenia's foreign
policy?
One of the priority tasks for Armenia's should be
settlement of liberated territories in Nagorno
Karabakh and support to NKR's foreign policy. The
Armenian-Azeri so-called consultations produced no
effect. With creation of the Kosovo precedent,
official Yerevan should recognize both Kosovo and
Nagorno Karabakh. With densely populated NKR, it will
be possible to prevent a new war between Karabakh and
Azerbaijan.
Another key task is cooperation with NATO and Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO), which claims to become
the major military-political bloc and a counterbalance
to the Alliance. Besides, our neighbor Iran has
already announced intention to join the SCO.
Yerevan's joining the Organization will open new
horizons and possibilities to participate in global
economic projects. Moreover, contrary to pro-western
Azerbaijan, Armenia can become an alternative for many
Asian gas exporters and act as transit country.
However, it doesn't mean that we should stand up
against NATO. What we should do is to assess the
situation and decide on the benefits we can gain from
cooperating with the blocs.
Strengthening of ties with states which are not
Armenia's military and strategic partners is also
important. To be self-sufficient we should get rid of
the complex of `a helpless nation' and develop viable
projects for consolidation of Armenian state system in
the South Caucasus.
How real is the end of Russia's presence in the South
Caucasus?
Presently, the Russia is not deciding `to be or not to
be' in the South Caucasus. Moscow has been trying to
strengthen its influence in the region so far. The
point is that Russia has two tools of pressure in
Georgia and none in Azerbaijan. It's quite obvious
that the Kremlin has for a long time Karabakh as a
pressing factor. Now, due to Artsakh's complete
isolation from Azerbaijan, the situation has changed.
Possibly, national tensions in north of Azerbaijan and
Baku's aggressive policy toward Dagestani-speaking
population can offer Moscow a chance for creating an
alternative factor.
However, Russia's unawareness of mentality and
capabilities of North Caucasus nations often resulted
in paralyzing of ethnic problems. This problem may be
viewed as omission by Armenia, which in the course of
15 years made no effort to convince Moscow of its
determination to finally resolve the `Azeri issue'.
Today, in the light of the U.S.-Turkey tensions, some
Russian forces speak out for stabilization of
relations with Ankara.
What's Armenia's actual role in the region?
In my opinion, Armenia could play a more important
role in the region, irrelative of the NKR issue or
blockade imposed by Turkey. The role of our state is
badly demanded over the lack of flexibility in the
foreign policy. Armenia proves unable to suppress the
growing anti-Armenian moods in Georgia. But as a
matter of fact, our republic could be an unofficial
guarantor of sustainable development of
Armenian-inhabited Samtskhe Javakheti and strengthen
Armenian economic and political influence on Ajaria
via promoting political and territorial autonomization
of Samtskhe Javakheti. It would force Georgia to
consider Yerevan's opinion. Ajaria and Samtskhe
Javakheti make the outlet toward to the Black Sea
which is the solution to the problem of blockade.
Let's look how Baku pursues its policy in Kvemo
Kartli, where plants and enterprises are established
with the Azerbaijani capital. Furthermore, political
consolidation of Azeri population in Georgia has
started with formation of regional political bodies
like the Azeri national assembly and the Party of
Azerbaijanis of Georgia.
To avoid a calamity, the new leadership of Armenia
should prevent Georgian assimilation and outflow of
Armenians from Samtskhe Javakheti via direct
investments in its economy and its transformation into
a political entity.
Is normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations
possible in the foreseeable future?
I wouldn't say. The fact is that Turkic solidarity is
gaining weight. Turkey is not interested in
independence and uncontrollable Armenia. During the
soviet era, Ankara was trying to weaken Russia's
influence and cement the Turkic bloc and Islamic
fundamentalism.
As to Georgia, it has to put up with the economic
expansion of Turkey, which under supervision of its
Western allies keeps on developing various scenarios
of so-called Turkish projects where Armenia is
perceived as a temporal political entity, completely
yielding to Azerbaijan.
However, despite political confrontation, I can't rule
out official economic ties between the two states,
especially because informal economic contacts has
existed and developed since Armenia proclaimed
independence
How do you assess Azerbaijan's policy toward Iran?
Azerbaijan is becoming a state which develops aims and
objectives for strengthening its influence in entire
Middle East. It has always pursued a balanced and
cautious policy toward Iran. Exploiting the factor of
Southern Azerbaijan, Baku is aspired to cause a split
in the Iranian society, thus playing in Washington's
hands, which views the situation as a good platform to
be used against Tehran.
However, Baku also tries to cooperate with Iran in
energy and commutation fields in order to isolate
Armenia fro regional projects.
Can Baku manipulate energy sources?
Baku has always viewed the energy and communication
resources as an extra political tool for gaining
maximal political concessions from its economic
companions. It specifically refers to the Karabakh
issue and Azerbaijan's influence in the region.
Nevertheless, many European states eye Azerbaijan as a
country which supplies energy sources bypassing Russia
and often satisfy its whims despite obvious
unwillingness to do so. Presently, Azerbaijan is by
all means trying to gain maximal benefits from Nabucco
project which will offer a possibility to leave
Armenia behind.
«PanARMENIAN.Net», 07.05.2008