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NEGOTIATION PROCESS - UNDER WAY
VARDAN GRIGORYAN
Hayots Ashkhar Daily
Published on May 08, 2008
Armenia
The meeting between Eduard Nalbandyan and Elmar Mamedyarov, organized
in Strasburg on May 7, was the first practical step undertaken by the
Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group following the presidential elections
of Armenia. The initiative was aimed at clarifying the issue of
resuming the Karabakh settlement talks.
Both the political and the personal motives of first meeting of the
Foreign Ministers are conceivable in context of resuming the talks. The
fact that after the February 19 presidential elections and the
subsequent formation of the new government the official Yerevan met the
international community's demand to follow the principle of succession
in the process of the Karabakh peace talks was strictly important in
political terms.
Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about Azerbaijan which tried to
take advantage of the temporary suspension of the talks with the
purpose of having a pro-Azerbaijani resolution passed by the UN General
Assembly and transferring the further talks to the plane of unilateral
principles.
As shown by the March 14 voting, the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group
do not approve of official Baku's endeavors of bringing their
negotiation partner and the international community face-to-face with
the accomplished fact.
This means that Azerbaijan can no longer approach the negotiation table
with the outcomes of its `independent activities' of the past months,
since the international community anticipates the parties to express a
clear-cut attitude towards the basic principles introduced by the
Co-Chairs of the Minsk Group on November 29, 2007. And despite the
Azerbaijani diplomats' recent attempts of blackmailing the
international community and assuring their society that the talks will
continue based on the ill-famed Resolution of the General Assembly, it
is actually the basic principles introduced by the Co-Chairs that serve
as a basis for proceeding with the talks.
With the purpose of continuing the discussion of those principles, the
mediators of the Minsk Group are trying to organize the first meeting
between the two countries' presidents during the month of June. In this
connection, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov has made the
following statement, `We'll let the Presidents know about the outcomes
of our meeting, and they will make a decision on organizing a meeting
on their level.'
The Azerbaijani diplomat also mentioned that after the May 7 discussion
the leaders of the two countries may find it necessary to organize a
new meeting between the Foreign Ministers. It turns out that apart from
the Foreign Ministers, it is also necessary to obtain the consent of
the Presidents in order to organize the high level meeting between
Serge Sargsyan and Ilham Aliev during the month of June.
Clearly, the Azeri diplomat's ambiguous hint implies the possible
disagreement of the Azerbaijani rather than the Armenian President,
because the Armenian party needed a temporary suspension of the talks
before the February 19 elections, while the Azerbaijani leadership is
facing that problem now.
It is now the Azerbaijani leadership that needs a time-out; therefore,
it is quite possible that after receiving the Foreign Ministry's report
on the outcomes of the meeting with E. Nalbandyan, E. Mamedyarov may
try to find some pretext for avoiding the negotiations.
During the presidential campaign of Armenia, the settlement of the
Karabakh conflict was just one of the numerous issues of the country's
political agenda, whereas for the Azerbaijani opposition, it may become
a key factor prior to the October 15 elections. Therefore, Baku is
currently arriving at the conclusion that the meeting between the two
countries' presidents (if organized at all), will be a formal,
demonstrative event.
It's clear that Armenia also realizes the possibility of a time-out
during the coming months, but the question is whether the Co-Chairs of
the Minsk Group think the same way. Judging by the statements, they are
almost sure that unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan will not have a new leader
on October 15, so they do not see the necessity of suspending the talks
for an additional period of 6 months.
After the Foreign Ministers' meeting which heralded the fact of
resuming the talks, the Co-Chairs of the Minsk Group are unlikely to
have an `understanding approach' towards the possibility of the
`time-out' anticipated before October 15. They would rather organize a
purely formal, demonstrative meeting between the two countries'
presidents for confirming the fact of resuming the talks on a higher
level than allow the Azeri President to use the coming month for
pronouncing bombastic speeches and questioning the progress attained in
the negotiation process during the past years.
To avoid the threat of `colored technologies' (to be imposed on
Azerbaijan by the West and first of all, the United States) and serious
internal political instabilities, Ilham Aliev will probably choose to
participate in the upcoming high-level talks, acting behind the mask of
a lamb on the international arena and behaving like a wolf inside his
own country.
VARDAN GRIGORYAN
Hayots Ashkhar Daily
Published on May 08, 2008
Armenia
The meeting between Eduard Nalbandyan and Elmar Mamedyarov, organized
in Strasburg on May 7, was the first practical step undertaken by the
Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group following the presidential elections
of Armenia. The initiative was aimed at clarifying the issue of
resuming the Karabakh settlement talks.
Both the political and the personal motives of first meeting of the
Foreign Ministers are conceivable in context of resuming the talks. The
fact that after the February 19 presidential elections and the
subsequent formation of the new government the official Yerevan met the
international community's demand to follow the principle of succession
in the process of the Karabakh peace talks was strictly important in
political terms.
Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about Azerbaijan which tried to
take advantage of the temporary suspension of the talks with the
purpose of having a pro-Azerbaijani resolution passed by the UN General
Assembly and transferring the further talks to the plane of unilateral
principles.
As shown by the March 14 voting, the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group
do not approve of official Baku's endeavors of bringing their
negotiation partner and the international community face-to-face with
the accomplished fact.
This means that Azerbaijan can no longer approach the negotiation table
with the outcomes of its `independent activities' of the past months,
since the international community anticipates the parties to express a
clear-cut attitude towards the basic principles introduced by the
Co-Chairs of the Minsk Group on November 29, 2007. And despite the
Azerbaijani diplomats' recent attempts of blackmailing the
international community and assuring their society that the talks will
continue based on the ill-famed Resolution of the General Assembly, it
is actually the basic principles introduced by the Co-Chairs that serve
as a basis for proceeding with the talks.
With the purpose of continuing the discussion of those principles, the
mediators of the Minsk Group are trying to organize the first meeting
between the two countries' presidents during the month of June. In this
connection, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov has made the
following statement, `We'll let the Presidents know about the outcomes
of our meeting, and they will make a decision on organizing a meeting
on their level.'
The Azerbaijani diplomat also mentioned that after the May 7 discussion
the leaders of the two countries may find it necessary to organize a
new meeting between the Foreign Ministers. It turns out that apart from
the Foreign Ministers, it is also necessary to obtain the consent of
the Presidents in order to organize the high level meeting between
Serge Sargsyan and Ilham Aliev during the month of June.
Clearly, the Azeri diplomat's ambiguous hint implies the possible
disagreement of the Azerbaijani rather than the Armenian President,
because the Armenian party needed a temporary suspension of the talks
before the February 19 elections, while the Azerbaijani leadership is
facing that problem now.
It is now the Azerbaijani leadership that needs a time-out; therefore,
it is quite possible that after receiving the Foreign Ministry's report
on the outcomes of the meeting with E. Nalbandyan, E. Mamedyarov may
try to find some pretext for avoiding the negotiations.
During the presidential campaign of Armenia, the settlement of the
Karabakh conflict was just one of the numerous issues of the country's
political agenda, whereas for the Azerbaijani opposition, it may become
a key factor prior to the October 15 elections. Therefore, Baku is
currently arriving at the conclusion that the meeting between the two
countries' presidents (if organized at all), will be a formal,
demonstrative event.
It's clear that Armenia also realizes the possibility of a time-out
during the coming months, but the question is whether the Co-Chairs of
the Minsk Group think the same way. Judging by the statements, they are
almost sure that unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan will not have a new leader
on October 15, so they do not see the necessity of suspending the talks
for an additional period of 6 months.
After the Foreign Ministers' meeting which heralded the fact of
resuming the talks, the Co-Chairs of the Minsk Group are unlikely to
have an `understanding approach' towards the possibility of the
`time-out' anticipated before October 15. They would rather organize a
purely formal, demonstrative meeting between the two countries'
presidents for confirming the fact of resuming the talks on a higher
level than allow the Azeri President to use the coming month for
pronouncing bombastic speeches and questioning the progress attained in
the negotiation process during the past years.
To avoid the threat of `colored technologies' (to be imposed on
Azerbaijan by the West and first of all, the United States) and serious
internal political instabilities, Ilham Aliev will probably choose to
participate in the upcoming high-level talks, acting behind the mask of
a lamb on the international arena and behaving like a wolf inside his
own country.