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EurasiaNet, NY
May 27 2008
THE KURDISH ISSUE AND NAGORNO-KARABAKH
Stephen Blank 5/27/08
A EurasiaNet Commentary
The Kurdish issue, specifically the matter of establishing a homeland
for Kurds, has complicated efforts to stabilize Iraq. Now, there is
growing concern among international experts that the Kurdish question
could become a source of tension, and possibly conflict in the South
Caucasus.
Media outlets in Turkey and Azerbaijan have reported that militant
Kurds, in particular fighters affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers
Party, have been settling in Nagorno-Karabakh and in portions of
Armenian-occupied Azerbaijan, with the tacit support of the Armenian
government in Yerevan. Many of the Kurds are reputed to have resettled
in the strategically important Lachin Corridor, a strip of territory
now occupied by Armenia that was formerly part of Azerbaijan
proper. Control of Lachin is one of the main obstacles in the search
for a Karabakh settlement. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive].
Before the outbreak of the Karabakh conflict, Lachin had a high number
of Kurdish residents, and during the 1920s, it was part of a Kurdish
Autonomous Area within the Soviet Union. Much of the Kurdish
population fled the region during the Karabakh war. But the fact
remains that there is a historical precedent for a Kurdish presence in
Lachin. Even so, their resettlement today -- especially if reports
about PKK militants being among the migrants are accurate -- is
fraught with peril for regional security.
Some recent Turkish and Azerbaijani reports have seemed downright
hyperbolic in sounding the alarm about the Kurdish threat, as well as
about Armenia's supposed role in promoting resettlement. The reports
alleged that Kurdish militants have established training camps in and
around Karabakh, and that Armenian authorities have given Kurds access
to state broadcasting facilities. They likewise claimed that political
organizations in Armenia, such as the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation (Dashnakstoutiun), are actively assisting the Kurds, seeing
them as a means to strengthen Armenians' hold on Karabakh. In
addition, Turkish and Azerbaijani media have stressed that both Ankara
and Baku consider the PKK a terrorist organization.
On May 14, a commentary in the Istanbul newspaper Yeni Safak, a
staunch supporter of Turkey's governing Justice and Development Party,
claimed that the PKK's leadership, perhaps feeling insecure in
northern Iraq, was mulling a move to Nagorno-Karabakh. The report
could not be independently confirmed.
Armenia officials have vigorously denied a PKK presence in either
Armenia proper or in Karabakh. "The unsubstantiated rumors about the
intentions on the side of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) to move
to Nagorno-Karabakh and controlled territories cannot be called
anything less than another provocation," stated Foreign Ministry press
spokesman Vladimir Karapetian.
It might be tempting to downplay the news reports as Turkish and
Azerbaijani propaganda aimed at their longtime enemy -- Armenia. But
dismissing Turkish and Azerbaijani assertions and concerns could prove
dangerous. They require further investigation.
There is a danger that Turkey and Azerbaijan could take matters into
their own hands, using the reported Kurdish threat as a pretext for
military operations in Karabakh. In a February commentary published by
the Ekho newspaper in Baku, political analyst Mubariz Ahmadoglu stated
that that the country's political leadership might feel compelled to
use force in an attempt to address the Kurdish issue. "If Armenia
continues moving in this direction, resistance on the part Azerbaijan
will be increasing. And not only at a diplomatic level," the newspaper
quoted Ahmadoglu as saying. "I cannot rule out that Azerbaijan can
start real actions of a military character. I know officials who made
remarks lately and I formed such an impression." For example,
Azerbaijan's Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov has stated publicly
that Baku would consider military operations to root out Kurdish
militants.
In addition, Turkish military leaders -- who in recent months have
ordered military operations in northern Iraq designed to smash PKK
strongholds -- have hinted that they would consider attacking Kurdish
militants wherever they were found. This has fueled speculation that
Turkey too might consider a raid against Karabakh, or even Armenia
proper.
The mere fact that Turkish and Azerbaijani media outlets are
complaining about a Kurdish militant presence in Karabakh should spur
the international community to action, in particular the co-chairs of
the Minsk Group -- the United States, Russia and France. There is a
clear need for redoubled efforts to get Karabakh negotiations back on
track, so as to eliminate, or at least greatly diminish the chances of
developments taking a calamitous turn.
Editor's Note: Stephen Blank is a professor at the US Army War
College. The views expressed this article do not in any way represent
the views of the US Army, Defense Department or the US Government.
May 27 2008
THE KURDISH ISSUE AND NAGORNO-KARABAKH
Stephen Blank 5/27/08
A EurasiaNet Commentary
The Kurdish issue, specifically the matter of establishing a homeland
for Kurds, has complicated efforts to stabilize Iraq. Now, there is
growing concern among international experts that the Kurdish question
could become a source of tension, and possibly conflict in the South
Caucasus.
Media outlets in Turkey and Azerbaijan have reported that militant
Kurds, in particular fighters affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers
Party, have been settling in Nagorno-Karabakh and in portions of
Armenian-occupied Azerbaijan, with the tacit support of the Armenian
government in Yerevan. Many of the Kurds are reputed to have resettled
in the strategically important Lachin Corridor, a strip of territory
now occupied by Armenia that was formerly part of Azerbaijan
proper. Control of Lachin is one of the main obstacles in the search
for a Karabakh settlement. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive].
Before the outbreak of the Karabakh conflict, Lachin had a high number
of Kurdish residents, and during the 1920s, it was part of a Kurdish
Autonomous Area within the Soviet Union. Much of the Kurdish
population fled the region during the Karabakh war. But the fact
remains that there is a historical precedent for a Kurdish presence in
Lachin. Even so, their resettlement today -- especially if reports
about PKK militants being among the migrants are accurate -- is
fraught with peril for regional security.
Some recent Turkish and Azerbaijani reports have seemed downright
hyperbolic in sounding the alarm about the Kurdish threat, as well as
about Armenia's supposed role in promoting resettlement. The reports
alleged that Kurdish militants have established training camps in and
around Karabakh, and that Armenian authorities have given Kurds access
to state broadcasting facilities. They likewise claimed that political
organizations in Armenia, such as the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation (Dashnakstoutiun), are actively assisting the Kurds, seeing
them as a means to strengthen Armenians' hold on Karabakh. In
addition, Turkish and Azerbaijani media have stressed that both Ankara
and Baku consider the PKK a terrorist organization.
On May 14, a commentary in the Istanbul newspaper Yeni Safak, a
staunch supporter of Turkey's governing Justice and Development Party,
claimed that the PKK's leadership, perhaps feeling insecure in
northern Iraq, was mulling a move to Nagorno-Karabakh. The report
could not be independently confirmed.
Armenia officials have vigorously denied a PKK presence in either
Armenia proper or in Karabakh. "The unsubstantiated rumors about the
intentions on the side of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) to move
to Nagorno-Karabakh and controlled territories cannot be called
anything less than another provocation," stated Foreign Ministry press
spokesman Vladimir Karapetian.
It might be tempting to downplay the news reports as Turkish and
Azerbaijani propaganda aimed at their longtime enemy -- Armenia. But
dismissing Turkish and Azerbaijani assertions and concerns could prove
dangerous. They require further investigation.
There is a danger that Turkey and Azerbaijan could take matters into
their own hands, using the reported Kurdish threat as a pretext for
military operations in Karabakh. In a February commentary published by
the Ekho newspaper in Baku, political analyst Mubariz Ahmadoglu stated
that that the country's political leadership might feel compelled to
use force in an attempt to address the Kurdish issue. "If Armenia
continues moving in this direction, resistance on the part Azerbaijan
will be increasing. And not only at a diplomatic level," the newspaper
quoted Ahmadoglu as saying. "I cannot rule out that Azerbaijan can
start real actions of a military character. I know officials who made
remarks lately and I formed such an impression." For example,
Azerbaijan's Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov has stated publicly
that Baku would consider military operations to root out Kurdish
militants.
In addition, Turkish military leaders -- who in recent months have
ordered military operations in northern Iraq designed to smash PKK
strongholds -- have hinted that they would consider attacking Kurdish
militants wherever they were found. This has fueled speculation that
Turkey too might consider a raid against Karabakh, or even Armenia
proper.
The mere fact that Turkish and Azerbaijani media outlets are
complaining about a Kurdish militant presence in Karabakh should spur
the international community to action, in particular the co-chairs of
the Minsk Group -- the United States, Russia and France. There is a
clear need for redoubled efforts to get Karabakh negotiations back on
track, so as to eliminate, or at least greatly diminish the chances of
developments taking a calamitous turn.
Editor's Note: Stephen Blank is a professor at the US Army War
College. The views expressed this article do not in any way represent
the views of the US Army, Defense Department or the US Government.