Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Turkey And The Caucasus: Can They Be Friendly Neighbors?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Turkey And The Caucasus: Can They Be Friendly Neighbors?

    TURKEY AND THE CAUCASUS: CAN THEY BE FRIENDLY NEIGHBORS?
    Samvel Martirosyan (Armenia)

    en.fondsk.ru
    03.11.2008

    Turkey took advantage of the radical changes that took place in the
    Caucasus as the result of the Five-Day War to implement a reorientation
    of its international policy.

    While the fighting was raging it was already clear that Ankara was
    going to start playing a bigger role in the Caucasus. During the active
    phase of the conflict, Turkey made political maneuvers between the
    countries involved concerning the passage of the NATO Navy via the
    Black Sea straits (1).

    Immediately upon the end of the hostilities Ankara floated the
    initiative of creating a platform for security and stability in
    the Caucasus inviting Russia, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan to
    participate. Despite being the most controversial participants of
    the project, Moscow and Yerevan unexpectedly expressed support for
    the platform (2).

    Imperialism: the Turkish Disease For Turkey, the South Caucasus is
    important not only from the standpoint of geopolitics, but also as the
    region relevant to the future of the country's political elites which
    are currently plagued by ideological strife. The conflict between the
    ruling Islamist party and the secular army has disoriented the country:
    it is uncertain whether Turkey is going to opt for Europeization with
    an admixture of nationalism or for radical Islamization.

    Turkey is a country with profoundly imperialist traditions, but had to
    remain confined to its borders for a protracted period of time. The
    contradiction has led to a serious identity crisis. An empire that
    is not expanding is bound to sink into chaos, which is exactly what
    is currently taking place in Turkey.

    The situation in the Middle East has changed fundamentally due to
    the end of the Cold War and the two Gulf Wars. The US troops gained
    strongholds in the region and Washington no longer needs a strong
    Turkey which used to help it implement its polices. Consequently, the
    space for maneuvers available to Ankara is shrinking, and Washington
    makes efforts to sideline it as an undesirable competitor.

    For the Turkish elite, the activity in the Caucasian direction can
    serve as a unifying factor. At the moment, Transcaucasia is the region
    where Ankara can adhere to an independent national course equally free
    from the pressure of the West and the politicized Islam. Ankara can
    rely on Azerbaijan which is its obedient ally in the region, and can
    interact with Georgia which - due to the crisis of its own statehood -
    has sought maximal rapprochement with Turkey. All that Ankara had to
    do was to choose the right moment to drag the "problematic" Armenia
    and Russia - Turkey's traditional rival in the Caucasus - into the
    orbit of its policy.

    A Turkish Breakthrough?

    Is it fair to say that, having found the intelligent decision and
    taken advantage of the chaos in the region, Ankara managed to make
    inroads into the South Caucasus? More precisely, Turkey used the recent
    complications to start implementing its old plan of penetrating the
    region which remained out of its reach for a long time. Turkey's
    relations with Armenia - the neighbor country with which it had
    particularly strained relations - highlight the above.

    A survey of the relations between Turkey and Armenia shows that
    Turkey's snap advent to the Caucasus has been carefully planned
    ahead. An unprecedented political development had taken place in
    September, 2008 - Turkish President Abdullah Gul attended a soccer
    game in Yerevan at the invitation of Serzh Sargsyan. Considering
    that there are no diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia and
    the relations between them are burdened with the legacy of a bloody
    conflict, the casual meeting of the two leaders was an extraordinary
    event which triggered discussions of a "breakthrough" and a possible
    normalization.

    Armenia was involved in talks behind closed doors about the
    normalization of the relations with Turkey at least months before Gul's
    visit to Yerevan. On the surface, it appeared that the rapprochement
    was induced by the Five-Day War, but in reality the conflict between
    Georgia and South Ossetia merely catalyzed the process that had to
    commence anyhow.

    The condition of the relations between Turkey and Armenia started
    to evolve incredibly fast. On the one hand, it is an unexpected
    breakthrough. On the other, it is unlikely that the new trend is
    explained solely by a sudden drive for better relations in Ankara
    and Yerevan. Probably, the prompt rapprochement scenario had been
    prepared already under President R. Kocharyan and awaited for the
    right moment to be put into practice.

    Otherwise it would be hard to explain how it became possible to
    reach the deal to supply electric power from Armenia to Turkey,
    to convince Armenia to drop its objections to Turkey's membership
    in the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development and Turkey -
    to lift the air blockade of Armenia so quickly, etc.

    It should be remembered that Sargsyan went public with his offer to
    improve the relations between Armenia and Turkey in June, 2008 when
    his presidency was in the initial phase and his domestic political
    positions were fairly insecure. He took serious risks floating the
    initiative which the Armenian society was going to frown upon. No
    preliminary efforts were made to prepare the public opinion to
    accept it, which is another indication that the snap rapprochement
    was planned much earlier, and the hostilities in South Ossetia merely
    signaled the right moment to move on.

    Can Turkey Be an Ally?

    Clearly, Yerevan had to act under serious Western pressure. From
    the perspective of Washington and Brussels, lifting the blockade at
    the border between Armenia and Turkey is a prologue to a shift in
    the balance of forces in the region as in this case Russia would no
    longer be Armenia's only link to the outside world and Armenia would
    thus get decoupled from Russia.

    As a result Russia would see its potential to influence Armenia
    considerably reduced.

    Yet, the recent strengthening of Russia's positions in the Caucasus
    affected the US plan of weakening its hold on Yerevan. Under the
    circumstances, Ankara started to play a game of its own. By launching
    the process of rapprochement with Russia, Turkey has generally
    neutralized the influence of the West. At the same time, Russia is
    entrained by Turkey since the latter has the potential to influence
    the situation in the South Caucasus with the help of Azerbaijan and -
    to an extent - Georgia.

    At the moment, Ankara is successfully maneuvering between Moscow,
    Washington, and Brussels, probing into the opportunities to expand
    its presence in the region.

    It should be realized that Turkey regards the rapprochement with
    Russia as a tactical move. It would be naïve to expect that the
    conflict with Georgia is going to make a geopolitical alliance with
    Turkey or even a Russia-Turkey axis possible. The Turkish elite are
    fully aware that Russia is its number one rival in the Caucasus and
    the Black Sea region.

    It appears that not everybody in Armenia welcomes the dubious plans
    of a snap recovery in the relations with Turkey either. Though
    Armenia's political elite has spent the entire September praising
    the corresponding achievements, already in mid-October the Armenian
    Prime Minister indicated in a rather harsh form that in his view the
    essence of Ankara's policy had remained unchanged.

    Currently the process is stagnating notably, and no profound changes
    in the South Caucasus direction loom on the horizon. There exist such
    key problems that any rapid changes in the region are going to have
    an adverse impact on all sides unless they are resolved. One of the
    main key problems is, of course, that of Karabakh. Having no leverage
    in the conflict, Turkey is nevertheless actively seeking a role in
    the negotiation process. Moscow is trying to gain control over the
    process as well. In all likelihood, in the nearest time neither of
    the parties involved will be able to monopolize control over the
    developments around Karabakh.

    There is one more significant circumstance that has to be taken into
    account. Some of the serious regional forces have not even joined
    the game so far. For example, Iran is taking its time as much as it
    appears possible and only occasionally reminds others that it is also
    a country to reckon with. No doubt, in a while Tehran will attempt
    to impede the emergence of any new alliances in the South Caucasus
    that will pose a threat to Iran.

    Currently Iran is interested in maintaining the status quo. In
    particular, the strengthening of Turkey's positions - and even more so
    its rapid rapprochement with Russia and Armenia - would be undesirable
    for Iran.

    Therefore Tehran will try to impede the political developments in
    the South Caucasus leading to the emergence of any new trends. The
    country certainly has the instruments to do so.

    _________

    1. Turkey Did Not Admit the US Navy to Georgia. Rosbalt, August 16,
    2008, http://www.rosbalt.ru/2008/08/16/514262.html

    2. Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov. Russia Hails the Turkish
    Initiative to Create a Caucasus Platform. PanARMENIAN.Net, 03.10.2008,
    http://www.panarmenian.net/news/rus/?n id=27246

    --Boundary_(ID_95qPr9hMNsMN9W6MNt/NyQ)--
Working...
X