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2 NOVEMBER - DECISIVE
Haykakan Zhamanak
Oct 30 2008
Armenia
Events related to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict settlement have been
developing rapidly over the last two to three weeks.
It is already obvious today that the sides have managed to carefully
"hide from the others' eyes" some processes that started in September,
in particular after the visit of Turkish President Abdullah Gul to
Yerevan, but this is no longer possible. Anyway, the developments show
that a stage has emerged now when specific results of the processes,
which began back in September, are becoming apparent. Last week's visit
of Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev to Yerevan and his statement
that the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents will meet in Moscow in
the future with the mediation and participation of Medvedev, are a
result of these processes.
...
However, this was only a start. It also became known yesterday
[29 October] that the Russian and US co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk
Group [which mediates a solution to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict]
had visited Baku. This is a classical panic visit, and in order to
get convinced in this one should recall that a few days ago, after
Medvedev made his known statement in Yerevan, the French co-chair of
the OSCE Minsk Group, Bernard Fassier, said that the co-chairs of the
OSCE Minsk Group would visit the region next week, that is this week
[27 October - 1 November]. Two days later the co-chairs visited Baku
but without Fassier. They are expected to arrive in Yerevan today
[30 October].
It is obvious that the reason for panic among the Minsk Group co-chairs
is the meeting to be held on 2 November in Moscow. Russia is the first
of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair countries which manages to organize
talks outside the Minsk Group format at the highest level, which
directly endangers the Minsk Group format in general. Meanwhile, Russia
did this with an astonishing speed and without meeting obstacles. This
is the reason US ambassador to Armenia Marie Yovanovitch said
yesterday: "No matter whether the OSCE Minsk Group format continues
to be viable, is it worth continuing the negotiations in this very
format?" This statement can be taken as a direct threat from the
USA to the sides of the conflict and to Russia, that if the Moscow
meeting takes place in this format, then the USA may withdraw from the
Minsk Group. This will mean the final dissolution of the Minsk Group
with all the negative consequences stemming from this. The fact that
nonetheless the Russian and US co-chairs of the Minsk Group visited
the region together makes one suppose that an attempt is being made
to save the Minsk Group from its final dissolution.
It is hard to say what the Azerbaijani government thinks about
all this, because the latter seems to be passive in this whole
period. The matter is that Azerbaijan has strengthened its positions
to an extent that Azerbaijan will benefit in any circumstance. It is
quite beneficial for Azerbaijan if the Karabakh talks continue in the
Armenia-Russia-Azerbaijan format, because Azerbaijan managed to become
an ally of Russia in the past one or two years, and managed to achieve
a situation where a declaration was signed between these countries,
clearly stating that these countries should mediate in the case of
claims to either country's territorial integrity.
Azerbaijan would also benefit if the talks continue in the Minsk
Group format, and moreover, it will benefit if they continue in the
Armenia-Turkey-Azerbaijan format. So, Azerbaijan has received a wide
window of opportunity now - to manoeuvre and to set specific demands
to the countries which have claims of being a sole mediator.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Haykakan Zhamanak
Oct 30 2008
Armenia
Events related to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict settlement have been
developing rapidly over the last two to three weeks.
It is already obvious today that the sides have managed to carefully
"hide from the others' eyes" some processes that started in September,
in particular after the visit of Turkish President Abdullah Gul to
Yerevan, but this is no longer possible. Anyway, the developments show
that a stage has emerged now when specific results of the processes,
which began back in September, are becoming apparent. Last week's visit
of Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev to Yerevan and his statement
that the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents will meet in Moscow in
the future with the mediation and participation of Medvedev, are a
result of these processes.
...
However, this was only a start. It also became known yesterday
[29 October] that the Russian and US co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk
Group [which mediates a solution to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict]
had visited Baku. This is a classical panic visit, and in order to
get convinced in this one should recall that a few days ago, after
Medvedev made his known statement in Yerevan, the French co-chair of
the OSCE Minsk Group, Bernard Fassier, said that the co-chairs of the
OSCE Minsk Group would visit the region next week, that is this week
[27 October - 1 November]. Two days later the co-chairs visited Baku
but without Fassier. They are expected to arrive in Yerevan today
[30 October].
It is obvious that the reason for panic among the Minsk Group co-chairs
is the meeting to be held on 2 November in Moscow. Russia is the first
of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair countries which manages to organize
talks outside the Minsk Group format at the highest level, which
directly endangers the Minsk Group format in general. Meanwhile, Russia
did this with an astonishing speed and without meeting obstacles. This
is the reason US ambassador to Armenia Marie Yovanovitch said
yesterday: "No matter whether the OSCE Minsk Group format continues
to be viable, is it worth continuing the negotiations in this very
format?" This statement can be taken as a direct threat from the
USA to the sides of the conflict and to Russia, that if the Moscow
meeting takes place in this format, then the USA may withdraw from the
Minsk Group. This will mean the final dissolution of the Minsk Group
with all the negative consequences stemming from this. The fact that
nonetheless the Russian and US co-chairs of the Minsk Group visited
the region together makes one suppose that an attempt is being made
to save the Minsk Group from its final dissolution.
It is hard to say what the Azerbaijani government thinks about
all this, because the latter seems to be passive in this whole
period. The matter is that Azerbaijan has strengthened its positions
to an extent that Azerbaijan will benefit in any circumstance. It is
quite beneficial for Azerbaijan if the Karabakh talks continue in the
Armenia-Russia-Azerbaijan format, because Azerbaijan managed to become
an ally of Russia in the past one or two years, and managed to achieve
a situation where a declaration was signed between these countries,
clearly stating that these countries should mediate in the case of
claims to either country's territorial integrity.
Azerbaijan would also benefit if the talks continue in the Minsk
Group format, and moreover, it will benefit if they continue in the
Armenia-Turkey-Azerbaijan format. So, Azerbaijan has received a wide
window of opportunity now - to manoeuvre and to set specific demands
to the countries which have claims of being a sole mediator.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress