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ANKARA: Obama's Promise Of Change May Not Be What Businesses Are Hop

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  • ANKARA: Obama's Promise Of Change May Not Be What Businesses Are Hop

    OBAMA'S PROMISE OF CHANGE MAY NOT BE WHAT BUSINESSES ARE HOPING FOR

    Today's Zaman
    Nov 8 2008
    Turkey

    US President-elect Barack Obama makes an opening statement on the
    economy with a group of advisers during a news conference in Chicago
    on Friday.

    With the election of Obama as the 44th president of the United States,
    the headlines of papers in Turkey are almost universal in praising
    the "hope" and "change" that the first African-American president
    has promised to bring with him to the White House.

    This opinion seems to be repeated across the sociological spectrum from
    Kurdish villages in Anatolia to Turks in glass towers in Ä°stanbul
    and taxi drivers in broken down TofaÅ~_ cars. Business leaders have
    also put this almost parrot-like cliché in all the pronouncements
    they have made looking forward to the "hope" and "change" that the
    administration will usher in.

    Exactly what this "change" and "hope" means for business leaders,
    therefore, needs to be clarified because it would seem that the
    "change" and "hope" desired by business leaders is very different from
    that desired by other segments of society. Indeed, speaking Friday
    in Antalya, Turkish Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges (TOBB)
    President Rifat Hisarcıklıoglu, attempted to describe what "change"
    means to business when he declared: "I believe the change will have
    its reflection in both the US government and the world environment
    because the US economy is one-fourth of the world economy. ... Obama
    has a different understanding, and with the positive expectations of
    people, he will affect the economy well."

    But, if election campaign promises are anything to base one's opinions
    on, it would seem that from a purely business perspective, Turkish
    businessmen's wishes would be for anything but the "change" and "hope"
    that the president-elect has promised.

    "Rationality" (long a concept central to economic theories of the
    "market man") would dictate that Turkish business leaders who have been
    dealing with America would thus desire several key characteristics in
    any prospective American president's policies: 1) openness to trade
    with the world and specifically with Turkey, 2) good diplomatic
    relations with Turkey, 3) a beneficial tax structure that would
    signify a generally supportive stance towards the business community,
    4) overall support for globalization and 5) a force of stability in
    its region. From a purely business perspective, Obama does not seem
    to be a source of "hope" for any of these issues.

    In fact, it would appear that Obama's election pledges -- complete with
    their inward looking trade promises, an increasingly protectionist
    slant and promised Congressional bills, which, if implemented would
    damage bilateral relations with Turkey -- are purely against the
    interests of business.

    Like all leaders of Turkish-American business councils that Sunday's
    Zaman polled, Galip Sukaya, the chairman of the American Business Forum
    in Turkey (ABFT) was of the opinion that "America should be proud" for
    their election of Obama, who is the ultimate symbol of the American
    dream: an African American, descendent of an immigrant father, from
    a broken family who was nonetheless able to beat the odds, complete
    law school at Harvard and go on to be elected the leader of the free
    world. When asked by Sunday's Zaman on the phone Thursday about trade
    relations, Sukaya also expressed confidence in brightening economic
    horizons under Obama and increased trade relations.

    Getting non-political stances out of leaders about their respective
    countries' business policies is like pulling teeth. However, when
    the matter of trade relations and general business relations was
    investigated further, Sukaya revealed that he did in fact have a
    reservation: "My only concern is about the Armenian resolution... if
    he passes it, there will be problems."

    Obama has long vowed to support Armenian genocide claims, declaring
    on his official site, "As a US Senator, I have stood with the
    Armenian-American community in calling for Turkey's acknowledgement
    of the Armenian Genocide." Last year the House Committee on Foreign
    Affairs voted 27-21 in favor of a resolution describing the 1915
    incidents as genocide against Armenians, and the vote was only
    postponed by the House to a later date. It remains to be seen what
    will happen with Obama in the principal seat in the White House.

    Indeed RahÅ~_an Cebe, a managing partner at Cushman and Wakefield
    in Ä°stanbul, expressed the same "main concern" and was fearful of
    anything being done by Washington to disturb the warming relations
    between Ankara and Yerevan. "Turks are very emotional, and it would be
    a shame if anything was done to disturb the air," not only for warming
    Turkish-Armenian relations, but also for US-Turkish business relations.

    Referring to Obama's relations with Turkey, Cebe said, "I don't know
    him well... [and] I don't know how well he knows Turkey," but was
    "hopeful" that Obama would rely on the right advisors. Bush's recent
    appointment of James Jeffrey, a man who knows Turkey very well,
    as the new ambassador to Turkey further increased her "hope."

    Obama's FDI policy causes concerns

    When probed still further, Sukaya's "only concern" grew into "other
    concerns." For starters, Sukaya revealed that there were concerns
    on the part of many businesses that Obama will make it increasingly
    difficult for American businesses that wish to operate abroad or make
    foreign direct investment (FDI). Obama's proposals to provide yet to be
    disclosed tax credits and other incentives for companies who invest at
    home rather than abroad, or "outsource" in popular terms, has struck
    a louder chord in recent months amongst voters as recession grips
    the country and as unemployment figures rose to 6.5 percent in October.

    If affected, this promises to pose substantial difficulties for many
    Turkish companies -- and the economy as a whole -- which benefit
    strongly from American FDI inflows to Turkey. In 2007 American sources
    contributed to over $4.2 billion in FDI to Turkey -- American sources
    are officially estimated to be the largest supplier of FDI -- and
    American companies contribute countless billion in spin-offs in the
    country. If Obama's "change" in this area is realized in his desire to
    keep investment at home, then many Turkish businesses will certainly
    not have much to "hope" for.

    Indeed, business leaders who had less of a political role to maintain
    spoke much more frankly about what they felt were the dangers posed to
    Turkish business by an Obama administration that keeps its election
    pledges of "change." Jeffrey Kemprecos, external affairs director at
    Merck Sharp & Dohme, was one such businessman. In addition to Obama's
    insistence on maintaining corporate tax rates at 35 percent -- the
    highest in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
    (OECD) -- Kemprecos highlighted Obama's stance on trade and the desire
    to keep jobs at home as being a negative indicator of the development
    of stronger trade relations between American and Turkish companies
    and the overall flow of capital. As evidence of the "non-friendly"
    business stance Obama took, he pointed to Wall Street's 500-point
    drop the day after the election -- the largest drop on the first day
    after an election.

    Another concern expressed by Sukaya was Obama's tax strategy in which
    "change" would bring increased taxation to American taxpayers who
    earn more than $250,000 per year. Amongst the proposed tax plans
    is an increase in the capital gains tax to 20 percent for those
    families with incomes above the $250,000 mark. Sukaya's concern was
    that this would hit investors -- Turks included -- and cause a shift
    in the investment strategies of both Turks investing in America and
    Americans investing in Turkey.

    Upon further probing, Sukaya expressed his "other concerns" about
    a possible inward orientation whereby the administration would
    begin focusing on domestic issues. Indeed, this has at least in
    part been a component of election run-up rhetoric designed to
    keep "jobs at home." If Obama's statements with respect to NAFTA,
    which he has described as "devastating" and a "big mistake," and
    his threats to pull out of the agreement unilaterally if it is not
    renegotiated are any indication of his stance with respect to trade,
    Turkish businessmen indeed have something to worry about. "Change"
    would certainly not appear to be in their best interests. If Obama
    maintains his campaign pledges to begin troop withdrawals as part of
    a plan to "bring the boys home," then "change" in this area as also
    likely spell problems for the Turkish business sector.

    Speaking with Sunday's Zaman yesterday, Dr. Ä°brahim Al-Marashi, a
    Middle East historian and expert on Iraq, argued that there were in
    fact a number of risks to Turkish business if Obama were to pull out of
    Iraq. Although he noted that most of the Turkish investments in Iraq
    were in large infrastructural projects in the Kurdish northern region
    of Iraq and that this would not be much affected since it is already
    self-policed, a US military withdrawal would lead to the very real
    possibility of the Iraqi military being divided along sectarian lines
    and civil war breaking out as Shiite and Sunni militias pick up arms
    once again. However, a number of the largest Turkish conglomerates,
    he said, are very active in distribution outside of northern Iraq, and
    their interests would be seriously damaged. Moreover, a destabilized
    Iraq would likely have larger geopolitical implications for Turkish
    interests and may well spill over into the economic realm.

    The only substantive "hope" that could be deciphered from the comments
    of businessmen discussing the "change" Obama promised came from Ugur
    Terzioglu of the Turkish American Business Association (TABA/AmCham),
    who hoped Obama "won't do what he said."

    The differing perspectives of business leaders and the chairmen of
    business councils in part reveals the contradictory roles that business
    leaders in bi- or multilateral business associations are expected to
    fill. On the one hand, they are to represent the interests of their
    constituents and articulate clear messages both to and from their
    members. On the other hand, the position is somewhat political, and
    members need be careful not to damage relations through criticisms
    of government policies.

    Obama says will confront economic woes head-on

    US President-elect Barack Obama said on Friday the United States was
    facing one of its greatest economic challenges and vowed to confront
    the crisis head-on as soon as he takes office in January. Investors
    are awaiting Obama's choice of Treasury secretary who will spearhead
    economic recovery, but Obama made clear he would not be rushed into
    making hasty appointments. "I want to move with all deliberate haste,
    but I want to emphasize deliberate as well as haste," he said.

    At his first news conference since being elected on Tuesday, Obama
    noted the latest Labor Department figures which showed that US
    unemployment hit a 14-year-high in October after employers slashed
    jobs by an unexpectedly steep 240,000. "We are facing the greatest
    economic challenge of our lifetime and we're going to have to act
    swiftly to resolve it," Obama said, as his team of economic advisers,
    who include businessmen and economists, stood in a line behind him.

    The brief news conference in Chicago followed a meeting with his
    17-member transition economic advisory board on how to tackle the
    worst economic crisis confronting the United States since the Great
    Depression of the 1930s.

    Obama said he wanted the Democrat-controlled US Congress to pass
    a second stimulus package as soon as possible to stabilize the
    economy, which analysts say may be in deep recession by the time he
    is inaugurated on Jan. 20. "We are going to need to see a stimulus
    package passed either before or after the inauguration. I want to
    see a stimulus package sooner rather than later."

    With US automakers also reporting billions in losses on Friday,
    Obama urged the Bush administration to accelerate a $25 billion
    retooling assistance plan already passed by Congress. The automakers
    are lobbying for up to $50 billion to prevent a collapse that could
    cost over two million jobs.

    In his first foreign policy pronouncement as president-elect, Obama
    called for an international effort to prevent Iran from developing a
    nuclear weapon, a day after Iran's president urged him to implement a
    "fairer" US policy in the Middle East. Obama, who has said he does not
    rule out direct talks with Iran's leaders, also called on Tehran to
    end what he called the country's support for terrorist organizations.

    Obama said he would be reviewing a letter from Iranian President
    Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, congratulating him on his election, and would
    "respond appropriately." But he said the US approach to Iran could
    not be done in a "knee-jerk" fashion. "I think we've got to think it
    through," he said. Chicago Reuters

    Top contenders for economic posts under Obama

    US President-elect Barack Obama said on Friday he wanted "to move with
    all deliberate haste" to pick people for top posts, but said it was
    important to get it right and not be unduly rushed. With a financial
    crisis raging and the US economy facing a possibly deep recession,
    the selection of key economic advisers is believed to be at the top of
    his to-do list. Here are the main contenders for senior economic jobs:

    Treasury Secretary

    Lawrence Summers: He was Treasury secretary under Bill Clinton and is
    the former president of Harvard University. Summers' tenure at Harvard
    was marked by conflict with faculty and other controversies but Wall
    Street held him in high regard during his time at Treasury. Summers
    has been a top adviser to Obama, especially after the financial crisis
    intensified in mid-September. He gained seasoning as a financial
    firefighter during the 1990s when he grappled with the Mexican peso
    crisis, the Asian financial flu and the Russian financial crisis.

    Timothy Geithner: As president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank,
    Geithner has played a lead role in efforts to stabilize financial
    markets. He has argued that banks crucial to the global financial
    system should operate under a unified regulatory framework. He worked
    with former Treasury secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers
    as undersecretary for international affairs during the Clinton
    administration.

    If Obama taps Geithner, the New York Fed would want to move quickly
    to replace him given the crucial role the regional Fed bank plays on
    Wall Street.

    Jon Corzine: The governor of New Jersey and former US senator is a
    one-time supporter of Sen. Hillary Clinton, whom Obama defeated for
    the Democratic party nomination. The former chairman of investment
    bank Goldman Sachs appeared in Chicago at an economic summit with
    Obama, and has helped articulate the candidate's program to curb
    speculation in energy markets. He told an interviewer on Wednesday
    that he has had no discussions about the job.

    Laura Tyson: The former chairwoman of Bill Clinton's Council of
    Economic Advisers, who also served as his National Economic Council
    director, is seen as a possible long shot for the Treasury post. She
    is now a professor at the University of California, Berkeley and
    was tapped as a key adviser to Obama after he secured the Democratic
    nomination for president in June.

    Director of the Office of Management and Budget

    Peter Orszag: Has been director of the non-partisan Congressional
    Budget Office since January 2007 and previously served as an economic
    adviser to President Clinton. A specialist on tax and budget policy,
    Orszag has also focused on Social Security reform, one of several
    difficult issues that will face the new president. Before heading
    CBO, Orszag was a senior fellow at the liberal-leaning Brookings
    Institution.

    Director of the National Economic Council

    Jason Furman: Obama's top economic policy coordinator and close
    associate of former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin was tapped shortly
    after Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3. He was an
    aide in the Clinton White House and worked with Rubin on the Hamilton
    Project, a centrist research organization that promotes policies such
    as free trade and fiscal discipline. Furman's reputation as a backer
    of free trade initially concerned some of Obama's union supporters.

    Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors

    Austan Goolsbee: The University of Chicago economist specializes in
    tax policy and has written extensively on the role of the Internet
    and technology in the economy. A long-time adviser to Obama, Goolsbee
    has been a major player in shaping the president-elect's economic
    plans. He sparked controversy in March after he met with Canadian
    officials. A leaked memo suggested Goolsbee played down Obama's
    opposition to NAFTA. The Obama campaign said the memo was inaccurate.

    US Trade Representative

    Dan Tarullo: A professor at Georgetown University law school, Tarullo
    specializes on trade and international economics. He was a senior
    White House aide to Clinton and did preparatory work for meetings of
    the Group of Seven industrialized economies. Tarullo has said Obama
    supports free trade but wants to ensure workers are protected from
    unfair trade practices.

    --Boundary_(ID_9AFZe4pr0D8UC2Rg8ao0nQ) --
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