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RUSSIA AND OBAMA: UNTYING THE GORDIAN KNOT
By Eric Walberg
Online Journal
Nov 11, 2008, 11:28
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev gave his state-of-the-union address
last Wednesday, just a few hours after Barack Obama's historic
electoral triumph, and pointedly refrained from mentioning it, though
he is on record as hoping for an Obama presidency.
"It would be easier to work with people with a modern outlook,
rather than those whose eyes are turned back to the past," he said in
February, before he was elected president himself. In a simple note
sent to Obama and posted on the Kremlin's web site later Wednesday
afternoon, he said, "I hope for a constructive dialogue with you,
based on trust and consideration of each other's interests."
It is unlikely there will be a love-in a la US President George W
Bush and President Vladimir Putin, when the former famously said,
"I looked the man in the eye. I was able to get a sense of his
soul," considering the disastrous plunge in relations following this
sound-bite moment. Or, more to the point, because of the foreign
policy hawks Obama relies on, including Zbigniew Brzezinski, whose
anti-Russian credentials I dissected in "Zbigniew Brzezinski to be
the real power behind an Obama throne."
Or, in light of the virtually identical public avowals by both
Obama and John McCain concerning relations with Russia (apart from
McCain's inane vow to exclude Russia from the G8), i.e., Georgia ,
missile defence, and Iran. The Russians know perfectly well that not
much changes in US foreign policy from one regime to the next. The
US empire follows a certain ruthless logic and must be accommodated
by the political functionaries presiding over it.
In fact, analyst Kiril Rogov says most politicians actually wanted
McCain to win. "Russian officials were ready for the kind of old-style
confrontation a McCain presidency appeared to offer," he said.
"Obama has promised a new model of foreign relations, and that worries
Russian politicians." And there's Obama's loose cannon VP Joseph
Biden, who presented the Democratic Convention with his plan for the
new administration's "real war," the war against Russia and China.
Still, there is room for hope. We all know just how "powerful"
US vice presidents are (with the exception of the current office
holder). Obama will not let himself be seen as an Uncle Tom. Both
presidents are 40-something lawyers by training, cultured and reserved,
starting their day online, not just relying on briefings prepared by
aides. By all accounts, they are both reasonably uncorrupted by their
meteoric rise to power, have cool heads and have the best interests
of their countries at heart.
It is unlikely that Obama will run such a wild, unpremeditated foreign
policy as his predecessor. There are factions within the imperial
establishment -- liberals vs hawks. As presumably one of the former,
Obama will be more likely to rely on soft power (undermining other
governments in the name of democracy) vs outright war. The Russians
no doubt will count on Obama to wind down the current wars rather
than starting new ones, all the time keeping their eye on campaigns
to "promote democracy" in their backyard. Remember it was Republican
McCain's adviser Randy Scheunemann and Vice-President Richard Cheney
who abetted the brash Georgian president to go to war with Russia
last August. Vyacheslav Nikonov, of the Politika think tank, says,
"Obama is an open book, a story to be written."
So there is a bit of a fresh slate, despite the exigencies of the
empire.
Any anti-Russia manoeuvring under the tutelage of Brzezinski will be
much cleverer than under those who pulled the strings for Bush. The
sorest point with Russia, of course, is the ever-looming plan for US
missile bases in Poland and the Czech Republic. Obama has been cagey
about this so far. After the Polish government website announced Obama
would proceed with the missile sites, his senior foreign policy adviser
Denis McDonough said, "President Kaczynski raised missile defense,
but President-elect Obama made no commitment on it. His position is as
it was throughout the campaign, that he supports deploying a missile
defense system when the technology is proved to be workable." The
Czech public is solidly against it and just proved it by drubbing the
ruling Civic Democrats in Senate and regional elections. The Senate
will discuss the plan at the end of November. The Social Democrats,
who benefited from the drubbing, promise to halt it. The Poles are
already resigned to the possibility it will not happen after the above
embarrassing exchange, with analysts suggesting the many problems
the US now faces could mean an indefinite delay in the coveted base.
Alexander Khramchikhin, a defense analyst with the Institute of
Political and Military Analysis, said that with Democrats in control
of the presidency and Congress, the US could well cut defense spending
and put the anti-missile system on the backburner. Obama could easily
remove himself from that hook, providing a wonderful olive branch to
the Russians.
Medvedev's threat to station Iskander missiles next door to Poland
in Kaliningrad would evaporate. Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's hardnosed
envoy to NATO predicted that Obama would stop pressuring European
NATO members from cooperating with Russia.
The other, equally sore point in relations -- NATO's triumphal march
to Russia 's borders -- could also be resolved by diplomacy. The
rose is off Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's bloom after
his botched war, and Ukraine is due for a new president, with both
opposition contenders dismissing NATO membership as a priority. Again,
by giving the right signals and avoiding Bush bluster about freedom
and democracy, Obama could pacify the Russians without any loss of
US prestige.
The main economic issue, which swamps both these political issues,
is the September financial meltdown, which slashed the value of
Russian stocks by two-thirds and, with the collapse in the price of
oil, promises to leave Medvedev helpless to carry out his ambitious
reform programme.
Medvedev's top economic adviser, Arkady Dvorkovich, thinks that under
Obama, the United States will engage in a closer dialogue with Europe,
Asia and Russia to find a way out of the financial crisis. "This
dialogue will begin in the near future in Washington. We will look
for solutions together."
Medvedev will travel to Washington on 15 November to attend a G20
summit on the financial crisis, where he could meet Obama. Konstantin
Kosachyov, head of the State Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee, called
on Obama to "find courage" to abandon the United States' unilateral
approach in its foreign policy and embrace the idea of collective
action. The Bush administration has managed to worsen ties with Russia
more than with any other major country, and Obama's election "instills
hope that a dramatic page in the relations of the two countries will
be turned," Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov said.
There is one conflict where the US can move quickly to find common
ground with Russia -- in Nagorno-Karabak. The US, Russia and
France are co-chairs of the Minsk Group, which acts as intermediary
there. Medvedev met last week with the leaders of Azerbaijan and
Armenia for talks on the conflict, getting them to agree to continue
working on "a political resolution of the conflict." None of the
co-chairs has any particular hidden agenda, and if they could get the
opponents to agree on a compromise, flooding them with development
aid to sweeten the pill, this would be a strong signal that there is a
way out of the nasty Cold War which Bush-Cheney have bequeathed Obama.
But there are many ways to sour relations, if that's what the real
actors want. Already, it was announced that Obama's election team's
computers were hacked by a "foreign entity" during the election.
Obama "technical experts" later speculated the hackers were Russian
or Chinese. How easy it is to execute any number of pre-packaged
false flag operations if necessary.
The common refrain these days is, "Who could possibly want to be US
president after the mess Bush created?" On the contrary, cleaning up
after the devastation of a hurricane is very rewarding; the results of
one's labours are clear and laudable. Obama could well have a truly
historic sound-bite moment in a few years, meeting with his equally
handsome, dynamic Russian counterpart to jointly solve some crisis
which is bound to happen. The Bush years could be just a horrible --
but receding -- nightmare as we celebrate Obama's re-election in
four years.
Eric Walberg writes for Al-Ahram Weekly. You can reach him at
www.geocities.com/walberg2002.
By Eric Walberg
Online Journal
Nov 11, 2008, 11:28
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev gave his state-of-the-union address
last Wednesday, just a few hours after Barack Obama's historic
electoral triumph, and pointedly refrained from mentioning it, though
he is on record as hoping for an Obama presidency.
"It would be easier to work with people with a modern outlook,
rather than those whose eyes are turned back to the past," he said in
February, before he was elected president himself. In a simple note
sent to Obama and posted on the Kremlin's web site later Wednesday
afternoon, he said, "I hope for a constructive dialogue with you,
based on trust and consideration of each other's interests."
It is unlikely there will be a love-in a la US President George W
Bush and President Vladimir Putin, when the former famously said,
"I looked the man in the eye. I was able to get a sense of his
soul," considering the disastrous plunge in relations following this
sound-bite moment. Or, more to the point, because of the foreign
policy hawks Obama relies on, including Zbigniew Brzezinski, whose
anti-Russian credentials I dissected in "Zbigniew Brzezinski to be
the real power behind an Obama throne."
Or, in light of the virtually identical public avowals by both
Obama and John McCain concerning relations with Russia (apart from
McCain's inane vow to exclude Russia from the G8), i.e., Georgia ,
missile defence, and Iran. The Russians know perfectly well that not
much changes in US foreign policy from one regime to the next. The
US empire follows a certain ruthless logic and must be accommodated
by the political functionaries presiding over it.
In fact, analyst Kiril Rogov says most politicians actually wanted
McCain to win. "Russian officials were ready for the kind of old-style
confrontation a McCain presidency appeared to offer," he said.
"Obama has promised a new model of foreign relations, and that worries
Russian politicians." And there's Obama's loose cannon VP Joseph
Biden, who presented the Democratic Convention with his plan for the
new administration's "real war," the war against Russia and China.
Still, there is room for hope. We all know just how "powerful"
US vice presidents are (with the exception of the current office
holder). Obama will not let himself be seen as an Uncle Tom. Both
presidents are 40-something lawyers by training, cultured and reserved,
starting their day online, not just relying on briefings prepared by
aides. By all accounts, they are both reasonably uncorrupted by their
meteoric rise to power, have cool heads and have the best interests
of their countries at heart.
It is unlikely that Obama will run such a wild, unpremeditated foreign
policy as his predecessor. There are factions within the imperial
establishment -- liberals vs hawks. As presumably one of the former,
Obama will be more likely to rely on soft power (undermining other
governments in the name of democracy) vs outright war. The Russians
no doubt will count on Obama to wind down the current wars rather
than starting new ones, all the time keeping their eye on campaigns
to "promote democracy" in their backyard. Remember it was Republican
McCain's adviser Randy Scheunemann and Vice-President Richard Cheney
who abetted the brash Georgian president to go to war with Russia
last August. Vyacheslav Nikonov, of the Politika think tank, says,
"Obama is an open book, a story to be written."
So there is a bit of a fresh slate, despite the exigencies of the
empire.
Any anti-Russia manoeuvring under the tutelage of Brzezinski will be
much cleverer than under those who pulled the strings for Bush. The
sorest point with Russia, of course, is the ever-looming plan for US
missile bases in Poland and the Czech Republic. Obama has been cagey
about this so far. After the Polish government website announced Obama
would proceed with the missile sites, his senior foreign policy adviser
Denis McDonough said, "President Kaczynski raised missile defense,
but President-elect Obama made no commitment on it. His position is as
it was throughout the campaign, that he supports deploying a missile
defense system when the technology is proved to be workable." The
Czech public is solidly against it and just proved it by drubbing the
ruling Civic Democrats in Senate and regional elections. The Senate
will discuss the plan at the end of November. The Social Democrats,
who benefited from the drubbing, promise to halt it. The Poles are
already resigned to the possibility it will not happen after the above
embarrassing exchange, with analysts suggesting the many problems
the US now faces could mean an indefinite delay in the coveted base.
Alexander Khramchikhin, a defense analyst with the Institute of
Political and Military Analysis, said that with Democrats in control
of the presidency and Congress, the US could well cut defense spending
and put the anti-missile system on the backburner. Obama could easily
remove himself from that hook, providing a wonderful olive branch to
the Russians.
Medvedev's threat to station Iskander missiles next door to Poland
in Kaliningrad would evaporate. Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's hardnosed
envoy to NATO predicted that Obama would stop pressuring European
NATO members from cooperating with Russia.
The other, equally sore point in relations -- NATO's triumphal march
to Russia 's borders -- could also be resolved by diplomacy. The
rose is off Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's bloom after
his botched war, and Ukraine is due for a new president, with both
opposition contenders dismissing NATO membership as a priority. Again,
by giving the right signals and avoiding Bush bluster about freedom
and democracy, Obama could pacify the Russians without any loss of
US prestige.
The main economic issue, which swamps both these political issues,
is the September financial meltdown, which slashed the value of
Russian stocks by two-thirds and, with the collapse in the price of
oil, promises to leave Medvedev helpless to carry out his ambitious
reform programme.
Medvedev's top economic adviser, Arkady Dvorkovich, thinks that under
Obama, the United States will engage in a closer dialogue with Europe,
Asia and Russia to find a way out of the financial crisis. "This
dialogue will begin in the near future in Washington. We will look
for solutions together."
Medvedev will travel to Washington on 15 November to attend a G20
summit on the financial crisis, where he could meet Obama. Konstantin
Kosachyov, head of the State Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee, called
on Obama to "find courage" to abandon the United States' unilateral
approach in its foreign policy and embrace the idea of collective
action. The Bush administration has managed to worsen ties with Russia
more than with any other major country, and Obama's election "instills
hope that a dramatic page in the relations of the two countries will
be turned," Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov said.
There is one conflict where the US can move quickly to find common
ground with Russia -- in Nagorno-Karabak. The US, Russia and
France are co-chairs of the Minsk Group, which acts as intermediary
there. Medvedev met last week with the leaders of Azerbaijan and
Armenia for talks on the conflict, getting them to agree to continue
working on "a political resolution of the conflict." None of the
co-chairs has any particular hidden agenda, and if they could get the
opponents to agree on a compromise, flooding them with development
aid to sweeten the pill, this would be a strong signal that there is a
way out of the nasty Cold War which Bush-Cheney have bequeathed Obama.
But there are many ways to sour relations, if that's what the real
actors want. Already, it was announced that Obama's election team's
computers were hacked by a "foreign entity" during the election.
Obama "technical experts" later speculated the hackers were Russian
or Chinese. How easy it is to execute any number of pre-packaged
false flag operations if necessary.
The common refrain these days is, "Who could possibly want to be US
president after the mess Bush created?" On the contrary, cleaning up
after the devastation of a hurricane is very rewarding; the results of
one's labours are clear and laudable. Obama could well have a truly
historic sound-bite moment in a few years, meeting with his equally
handsome, dynamic Russian counterpart to jointly solve some crisis
which is bound to happen. The Bush years could be just a horrible --
but receding -- nightmare as we celebrate Obama's re-election in
four years.
Eric Walberg writes for Al-Ahram Weekly. You can reach him at
www.geocities.com/walberg2002.