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NEW ENERGETIC SITUATION IN SOUTH CAUCASUS
Armen Manvelyan
"Noravank" Foundation
10 November 2008
The political situation after South Ossetian war in South Caucasus
changed which influenced the security of the energy supply. West
changed its former opinion about the region. The countries of the
region, for which the status of energy supplier is of strategic
importance, begin looking for new ways of strengthening their former
position. The issue of energy supply has become actual for Europe as
well, which thinks about paving new ways to export energy carriers
from the Caspian Sea Basin. The role of Iran rises, as, as a matter
of fact, it is the only country which has enough energy carriers
and is able to become the only alternative to weaken Europe's energy
dependence on Russia.
Under the new conditions Turkey tries to carry out independent policy
stressing up its role as a transit country from east to west. Thus,
the program NABUCCO financed by Europe acquires a new significance as
new obstacles are posed on its way of realization. Let's mention that
according to this program financed by a number of EU member-states,
a gas carrier is to be constructed to transport gas from Iran and
the Middle East to Europe through Turkey.
Azerbaijan has long been interested in this program aiming at joining
the project and sending to the pipeline its gas from Shahdeniz
gas-fields.
Let's mention that the Agreement about the construction of the gas
pipeline costing $5 billion was signed in 2007 in Vienne by the
ministers of Turkey, Bulgaria, Hungary, Rumania and Austria1. It is
expected that the gas pipeline construction is to begin this year,
and from 2011 it is to work with all its capacity.
The program has some contradictions not only with Russia and
the US. The United States is against exporting gas from Iran to
Europe through the territory of Turkey and prefers "dealing with"
Azerbaijani gas trying to convince its European colleagues to bye
gas from Azerbaijan.
Let's remind that in winter 2007 British Petroleum and StatOil
companies announced about the first phase of gas extraction from
Shahdeniz gas-fields2. According to Azerbaijani specialists, the
capacity of gas extraction till the end of this year will make 22
million cubic meters a day, 14 million out of which may be exported. In
spite of the fact that this extent is not enough, however, official
Baku is ready to join the program.
South Ossetian war has considerably changed Europeans' opinion about
energy issues. In particular, it is already clear that the Azerbaijani
gas can not be the alternative of the Russian one not only because
of its small extent, but also because of instability in Georgia.
Today new suggestions and standpoints are studied for realization of
NABUCCO program, in particular, according to Â"The Christian Science
MonitorÂ", Russia is very much interested in the program as it wants
to export Russian gas through the gas pipeline3. According to the
journal, this alternative is more pragmatic than the previously
suggested ones. However, in this case as well the main objective is
not reached - the objective of crating alternatives of Russian energy
carriers. Let's remind that Russia is connected with Turkey with the
gas pipeline "Blue Stream," which, however, doesn't work at full power,
i.e. if needed, this gas pipeline may be connected up with NABUCCO,
and the Russian gas will flow to Europe.
However, as it has already been mentioned, under such
conditions Europe's dependence on Russian energy carriers only
raises. Accordingly, the political significance of constructing
NABUCCO is lost. The only way to neutralize the Russian factor,
according to the project sponsors, is involving Iran into the project.
According to many experts, the recent improvements in Turkish-Iranian
relations are connected with this very issue. The visit of Iran's
president Ahmadinejad to Ankara and his reception on the highest level
has not only resulted Washington's dissatisfaction but has also formed
an opinion in the whole West that Turkey aspires at expediting NABUCCO
program realization and Iran is the main exporter of gas in this
program. Besides, in his regional policy Turkey's present leader tries
to accentuate its independence of Washington and energy importance
for Europe - as the alternative of the Russian one. It is clear that
Iran also tries to make use of the present situation. After the last
war in Caucasus a chance has been provided for Iran to increase its
significance to the maximum as the alternative country-supplier of
energy. Iran's Energy Minister Gholam Nozari has announced that the
objective of his country is to possibly extend its relations with
the Russian energy Giant "Gazprom." Nozary suggests carrying out gas
exchange: to get it in the north and, instead of it, put out gas (in
corresponding extent) from the gas-field located in the south of the
country4. Let's mention that in its time it was suggested to organize
such an exchange through the gas pipeline Nika-Ray constructed by
Iran connecting the Caspian Port Nika with the oil-refining factory
located not far from Teheran. Today, making use of the complicated
situation, Iran tries to give importance to its country in exporting
energy carriers from the Caspian Sea Basin. Let's also mention that
under the conditions of Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline's inactivity and the
crisis in Georgia, the Azerbaijani oil has also began flowing to the
south - through the territory of Iran to the international market.
In this way Iran tries to get possibly more dividends to suggest its
own territory as an alternative and make use of transit privileges. At
the same time, Iran wages a struggle to make its role more active
in NABUCCO program which is becoming of strategic importance for
Europeans. However, let's mention that the US is against the program
of involving Iran into the program and suggests the Azerbaijani gas as
an alternative. During his visit to Baku the US Vice-President Dick
Cheney made this issue the topic of active discussions. After a trip
to Europe he appeared with an interesting announcement, in particular
suggesting to invite Armenia along with Georgia and Azerbaijan to the
energy summit to be held in November5. i.e. after the South-Ossetian
conflict Armenia is considered in the west as an alternative energy
corridor through the territory of which energy may be supplied to the
west in case of new aggravations in Georgia. These talks became more
concrete after the president of Turkey's visit (to Armenia) when the
issue of Gyumri-Kars railroad relaunching seems to have become more
realistic. It is also to be reminded that after his visit to Yerevan,
Turkey's Foreign Minister Ali Babajan in his interview to "Rayters"
also mentioned Armenia's role as a possible alternative country for
energy supply.
--Boundary_(ID_Oxy41pGQc9yLHibp4qqMhg)--
Armen Manvelyan
"Noravank" Foundation
10 November 2008
The political situation after South Ossetian war in South Caucasus
changed which influenced the security of the energy supply. West
changed its former opinion about the region. The countries of the
region, for which the status of energy supplier is of strategic
importance, begin looking for new ways of strengthening their former
position. The issue of energy supply has become actual for Europe as
well, which thinks about paving new ways to export energy carriers
from the Caspian Sea Basin. The role of Iran rises, as, as a matter
of fact, it is the only country which has enough energy carriers
and is able to become the only alternative to weaken Europe's energy
dependence on Russia.
Under the new conditions Turkey tries to carry out independent policy
stressing up its role as a transit country from east to west. Thus,
the program NABUCCO financed by Europe acquires a new significance as
new obstacles are posed on its way of realization. Let's mention that
according to this program financed by a number of EU member-states,
a gas carrier is to be constructed to transport gas from Iran and
the Middle East to Europe through Turkey.
Azerbaijan has long been interested in this program aiming at joining
the project and sending to the pipeline its gas from Shahdeniz
gas-fields.
Let's mention that the Agreement about the construction of the gas
pipeline costing $5 billion was signed in 2007 in Vienne by the
ministers of Turkey, Bulgaria, Hungary, Rumania and Austria1. It is
expected that the gas pipeline construction is to begin this year,
and from 2011 it is to work with all its capacity.
The program has some contradictions not only with Russia and
the US. The United States is against exporting gas from Iran to
Europe through the territory of Turkey and prefers "dealing with"
Azerbaijani gas trying to convince its European colleagues to bye
gas from Azerbaijan.
Let's remind that in winter 2007 British Petroleum and StatOil
companies announced about the first phase of gas extraction from
Shahdeniz gas-fields2. According to Azerbaijani specialists, the
capacity of gas extraction till the end of this year will make 22
million cubic meters a day, 14 million out of which may be exported. In
spite of the fact that this extent is not enough, however, official
Baku is ready to join the program.
South Ossetian war has considerably changed Europeans' opinion about
energy issues. In particular, it is already clear that the Azerbaijani
gas can not be the alternative of the Russian one not only because
of its small extent, but also because of instability in Georgia.
Today new suggestions and standpoints are studied for realization of
NABUCCO program, in particular, according to Â"The Christian Science
MonitorÂ", Russia is very much interested in the program as it wants
to export Russian gas through the gas pipeline3. According to the
journal, this alternative is more pragmatic than the previously
suggested ones. However, in this case as well the main objective is
not reached - the objective of crating alternatives of Russian energy
carriers. Let's remind that Russia is connected with Turkey with the
gas pipeline "Blue Stream," which, however, doesn't work at full power,
i.e. if needed, this gas pipeline may be connected up with NABUCCO,
and the Russian gas will flow to Europe.
However, as it has already been mentioned, under such
conditions Europe's dependence on Russian energy carriers only
raises. Accordingly, the political significance of constructing
NABUCCO is lost. The only way to neutralize the Russian factor,
according to the project sponsors, is involving Iran into the project.
According to many experts, the recent improvements in Turkish-Iranian
relations are connected with this very issue. The visit of Iran's
president Ahmadinejad to Ankara and his reception on the highest level
has not only resulted Washington's dissatisfaction but has also formed
an opinion in the whole West that Turkey aspires at expediting NABUCCO
program realization and Iran is the main exporter of gas in this
program. Besides, in his regional policy Turkey's present leader tries
to accentuate its independence of Washington and energy importance
for Europe - as the alternative of the Russian one. It is clear that
Iran also tries to make use of the present situation. After the last
war in Caucasus a chance has been provided for Iran to increase its
significance to the maximum as the alternative country-supplier of
energy. Iran's Energy Minister Gholam Nozari has announced that the
objective of his country is to possibly extend its relations with
the Russian energy Giant "Gazprom." Nozary suggests carrying out gas
exchange: to get it in the north and, instead of it, put out gas (in
corresponding extent) from the gas-field located in the south of the
country4. Let's mention that in its time it was suggested to organize
such an exchange through the gas pipeline Nika-Ray constructed by
Iran connecting the Caspian Port Nika with the oil-refining factory
located not far from Teheran. Today, making use of the complicated
situation, Iran tries to give importance to its country in exporting
energy carriers from the Caspian Sea Basin. Let's also mention that
under the conditions of Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline's inactivity and the
crisis in Georgia, the Azerbaijani oil has also began flowing to the
south - through the territory of Iran to the international market.
In this way Iran tries to get possibly more dividends to suggest its
own territory as an alternative and make use of transit privileges. At
the same time, Iran wages a struggle to make its role more active
in NABUCCO program which is becoming of strategic importance for
Europeans. However, let's mention that the US is against the program
of involving Iran into the program and suggests the Azerbaijani gas as
an alternative. During his visit to Baku the US Vice-President Dick
Cheney made this issue the topic of active discussions. After a trip
to Europe he appeared with an interesting announcement, in particular
suggesting to invite Armenia along with Georgia and Azerbaijan to the
energy summit to be held in November5. i.e. after the South-Ossetian
conflict Armenia is considered in the west as an alternative energy
corridor through the territory of which energy may be supplied to the
west in case of new aggravations in Georgia. These talks became more
concrete after the president of Turkey's visit (to Armenia) when the
issue of Gyumri-Kars railroad relaunching seems to have become more
realistic. It is also to be reminded that after his visit to Yerevan,
Turkey's Foreign Minister Ali Babajan in his interview to "Rayters"
also mentioned Armenia's role as a possible alternative country for
energy supply.
--Boundary_(ID_Oxy41pGQc9yLHibp4qqMhg)--