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OBAMA AND THE KURDS
by Yasin Dogan
Yeni Safak
Nov 7 2008
Turkey
Barack Obama's winning the US Presidential election will perhaps not
directly cause deep changes in Turkish-US relations, but when one
looks at it from the standpoint of the things that could take place
in the region, one has to see that there may be indirect effects.
The arrival of Obama will not directly impact policies towards Turkey,
but it will impact policies towards Iraq, and thus will impact Turkey
as a reflection of this.
Obama stated during his election campaign that he would be able to
withdraw the US military presence from Iraq within a year and a half.
The withdrawal of US troops from Iraq -even if some elements might
remain -could change the political balance to a significant degree,
both in the region and in Iraq.
If the United States should pull out of Iraq, what would the general
situation of Iraq be, and what would the specific situation of the
Kurds be?
The answer to this question is that there could be efforts to seek
new alliances, as well as shifts of power.
The political equilibrium inside Iraq is in fact in a state of constant
change. At one time, a Kurdish-Shi'ite alliance was the necessity of
having a government. Prime Minister [Nuri] al-Maliki, in order to
keep the government standing, was very dependent on the Kurds. But
in the most recent period, the fact that the Sunnis have begun to
get involved in the game, and the rapprochement, even if partial,
between the Sunni and Shi'ite Arabs, have lessened this dependency.
It is known that the administration of Prime Minister Al-Maliki is
more sensitive in terms of spreading the influence of the central
government throughout the country and promoting political unity.
The withdrawal of US troops from Iraq could cause the Kurds to move
closer to Turkey.
For the local administration in Northern Iraq to be close to Turkey and
have good relations with Turkey is a general trend, but the balances
in Iraq, and the new situation, could speed up this process a bit more.
The call by President [Jalal] Talabani for support to the AKP [Justice
and Development Party] in the Southeast can also be interpreted within
this context.
Obama's conveying messages of peace and compromise to the world shows
that he will place dialogue and democratic tendencies, rather than
military and coercive measures, in the forefront. This perspective
of Obama could force terrorism and violence in the Kurdish issue
to be totally excluded. It is thus likely that, in the new process,
the PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party] will be subjected to pressure from
the United States.
It is also possible that Obama, who could enter into approaches that
will make Turkey uncomfortable, particularly on the Armenian issue,
will give full support to Turkey in terms of the PKK.
Thus the liberal policies of the Obama administration could bring the
Kurds in Iraq closer to Turkey, and could also place the situation
of the PKK into a new phase.
In conclusion, with the United States under Obama, the PKK and
terrorism could lose out, but the Kurds and democracy could end
up ahead.
We will watch and see...
by Yasin Dogan
Yeni Safak
Nov 7 2008
Turkey
Barack Obama's winning the US Presidential election will perhaps not
directly cause deep changes in Turkish-US relations, but when one
looks at it from the standpoint of the things that could take place
in the region, one has to see that there may be indirect effects.
The arrival of Obama will not directly impact policies towards Turkey,
but it will impact policies towards Iraq, and thus will impact Turkey
as a reflection of this.
Obama stated during his election campaign that he would be able to
withdraw the US military presence from Iraq within a year and a half.
The withdrawal of US troops from Iraq -even if some elements might
remain -could change the political balance to a significant degree,
both in the region and in Iraq.
If the United States should pull out of Iraq, what would the general
situation of Iraq be, and what would the specific situation of the
Kurds be?
The answer to this question is that there could be efforts to seek
new alliances, as well as shifts of power.
The political equilibrium inside Iraq is in fact in a state of constant
change. At one time, a Kurdish-Shi'ite alliance was the necessity of
having a government. Prime Minister [Nuri] al-Maliki, in order to
keep the government standing, was very dependent on the Kurds. But
in the most recent period, the fact that the Sunnis have begun to
get involved in the game, and the rapprochement, even if partial,
between the Sunni and Shi'ite Arabs, have lessened this dependency.
It is known that the administration of Prime Minister Al-Maliki is
more sensitive in terms of spreading the influence of the central
government throughout the country and promoting political unity.
The withdrawal of US troops from Iraq could cause the Kurds to move
closer to Turkey.
For the local administration in Northern Iraq to be close to Turkey and
have good relations with Turkey is a general trend, but the balances
in Iraq, and the new situation, could speed up this process a bit more.
The call by President [Jalal] Talabani for support to the AKP [Justice
and Development Party] in the Southeast can also be interpreted within
this context.
Obama's conveying messages of peace and compromise to the world shows
that he will place dialogue and democratic tendencies, rather than
military and coercive measures, in the forefront. This perspective
of Obama could force terrorism and violence in the Kurdish issue
to be totally excluded. It is thus likely that, in the new process,
the PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party] will be subjected to pressure from
the United States.
It is also possible that Obama, who could enter into approaches that
will make Turkey uncomfortable, particularly on the Armenian issue,
will give full support to Turkey in terms of the PKK.
Thus the liberal policies of the Obama administration could bring the
Kurds in Iraq closer to Turkey, and could also place the situation
of the PKK into a new phase.
In conclusion, with the United States under Obama, the PKK and
terrorism could lose out, but the Kurds and democracy could end
up ahead.
We will watch and see...