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A TURNING POINT: ARMENIAN OFFICIALS TAKE THE BOLD STEPS
By Dikran Abrahamian
http://www.keghart.com/op144.htm
13 November 2008
Turkey appeared to have the upper hand following the Georgian crisis
and it took advantage of Russia's interests in the Caucasus. It pressed
Armenia to make concessions both with respect to establishing a joint
commission of historians and relinquishing the lands surrounding
Karabakh as a security zone. In return Turkey promised to open the
borders with Armenia. After much speculation of what Armenia would
or would not agree to, highest officials seem to have taken the
bold step of explicitly announcing what are negotiable and what
are not. Armenia's president Serzh Sargsyan and his Minister of
Foreign Affairs Eduard Nalbandian have assured the Armenian people
the commission will not be established. In the previous update of
Keghart.com the respective announcements were posted at the end of
the items: A Letter to a Friend - Why the Silence and Inactivity? and
Nalbandian: "Genocide" resolutions Not a Remedy.
Not too long ago, barely a week, it appeared that the Armenian
authorities were on the verge of being forced to drastically
soften their stand towards Turkey, compared to previous Armenian
administrations. However, following the election of the new president
of the USA there seems to be a new lifeline. It's hard not to
speculate=2 0 that Barack Obama's election has shifted the balance
in favor of Armenia. It's no longer possible to make the argument
that opening the borders is contingent on establishing a commission
of historians, as the new president's perception of the Genocide is
not a political opinion but a historical fact. Turkey knows this all
too well. Whether the new administration recognizes the Genocide or
not is an independent matter that forces within the congress will
decide down the road.
Another factor that may have played a role in this "conversion"
is the critical appraisal of previous ambiguous announcements made
by the same officials. People in Armenia and the Diaspora made it
clear that the proposed commission was not acceptable - to put it
mildly. Furthermore, giving in to Turkey's insistence on ceding land
before opening the borders was akin to capitulation.
Turkey may retaliate by making the usual threats that are well known.
Israel may make its case of why Turkey is a crucial ally, and the
Jewish lobby will try to influence the foreign policy of USA. There
is no doubt about these matters. What's important, however, at this
juncture, the dynamics has changed and Armenia should maintain its most
recent course, and make use of all resources available to drive home
its arguments in all international venues available at its disposal.
Whether Karabakh's legal right to be a participant in the Minsk
negotiations remains moot. Similarly, which international principle
will be honored in future negotiations is not clear. Is it the
territorial integrity of Azerbaijan or the right to self-determination
of Karabakh that will predominate? The former is more likely, based
on remarks made by the co-chairs of the Minsk group. What level of
self-determination will then Karabakh get? In any event Armenia should
not rush to a resolution until the new administration in USA is ushered
in. Meanwhile time is running short for Turkey to impose its will at
whim. Even if individual players in the future administration may not
be so sympathetic to the cause of Karabakh or Armenia, all indications
are that the future commander-in-chief will not be totally insensitive.
Between now and the inauguration of the new president of USA, and
possibly through April 2009, Armenia and its only dedicated ally
- the Diaspora - have a window of opportunity that should not be
lost. Without being forgetful and neglectful of the socio-economic
ills in Armenia, all organizations and parties should re-evaluate
the present circumstances, draw the pertinent conclusions and
support the authorities of Armenia with respect to Turkey and its
machinations. Regretfully, the authorities in Armenia should be kept
on a short leash so that they don't flip-flop and change course again.
By Dikran Abrahamian
http://www.keghart.com/op144.htm
13 November 2008
Turkey appeared to have the upper hand following the Georgian crisis
and it took advantage of Russia's interests in the Caucasus. It pressed
Armenia to make concessions both with respect to establishing a joint
commission of historians and relinquishing the lands surrounding
Karabakh as a security zone. In return Turkey promised to open the
borders with Armenia. After much speculation of what Armenia would
or would not agree to, highest officials seem to have taken the
bold step of explicitly announcing what are negotiable and what
are not. Armenia's president Serzh Sargsyan and his Minister of
Foreign Affairs Eduard Nalbandian have assured the Armenian people
the commission will not be established. In the previous update of
Keghart.com the respective announcements were posted at the end of
the items: A Letter to a Friend - Why the Silence and Inactivity? and
Nalbandian: "Genocide" resolutions Not a Remedy.
Not too long ago, barely a week, it appeared that the Armenian
authorities were on the verge of being forced to drastically
soften their stand towards Turkey, compared to previous Armenian
administrations. However, following the election of the new president
of the USA there seems to be a new lifeline. It's hard not to
speculate=2 0 that Barack Obama's election has shifted the balance
in favor of Armenia. It's no longer possible to make the argument
that opening the borders is contingent on establishing a commission
of historians, as the new president's perception of the Genocide is
not a political opinion but a historical fact. Turkey knows this all
too well. Whether the new administration recognizes the Genocide or
not is an independent matter that forces within the congress will
decide down the road.
Another factor that may have played a role in this "conversion"
is the critical appraisal of previous ambiguous announcements made
by the same officials. People in Armenia and the Diaspora made it
clear that the proposed commission was not acceptable - to put it
mildly. Furthermore, giving in to Turkey's insistence on ceding land
before opening the borders was akin to capitulation.
Turkey may retaliate by making the usual threats that are well known.
Israel may make its case of why Turkey is a crucial ally, and the
Jewish lobby will try to influence the foreign policy of USA. There
is no doubt about these matters. What's important, however, at this
juncture, the dynamics has changed and Armenia should maintain its most
recent course, and make use of all resources available to drive home
its arguments in all international venues available at its disposal.
Whether Karabakh's legal right to be a participant in the Minsk
negotiations remains moot. Similarly, which international principle
will be honored in future negotiations is not clear. Is it the
territorial integrity of Azerbaijan or the right to self-determination
of Karabakh that will predominate? The former is more likely, based
on remarks made by the co-chairs of the Minsk group. What level of
self-determination will then Karabakh get? In any event Armenia should
not rush to a resolution until the new administration in USA is ushered
in. Meanwhile time is running short for Turkey to impose its will at
whim. Even if individual players in the future administration may not
be so sympathetic to the cause of Karabakh or Armenia, all indications
are that the future commander-in-chief will not be totally insensitive.
Between now and the inauguration of the new president of USA, and
possibly through April 2009, Armenia and its only dedicated ally
- the Diaspora - have a window of opportunity that should not be
lost. Without being forgetful and neglectful of the socio-economic
ills in Armenia, all organizations and parties should re-evaluate
the present circumstances, draw the pertinent conclusions and
support the authorities of Armenia with respect to Turkey and its
machinations. Regretfully, the authorities in Armenia should be kept
on a short leash so that they don't flip-flop and change course again.