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MCCAIN'S ARMENIA PROBLEM
by Daniel Nichanian
Atlantic Online
October 8, 2008
"In the superheated world of ethnic grievance politics, rarely do
presidential elections feature such a clear contrast between two
candidates. In California, New Jersey, Michigan and Nevada, that
contrast could hurt McCain."
Eight years ago, George W. Bush was battling an
unexpectedly competitive John McCain for the GOP's presidential
nomination. Scheduled to vote just days after South Carolina, Michigan
suddenly looked decisive--and its substantial Armenian-American
population became an attractive voting block.
Three days before the vote, Governor Bush sent a letter to two
Armenian-American businessmen addressing the Armenian community's
biggest demand--recognition that the 1915 extermination of Armenians in
the Ottoman Empire was an act of genocide. The Turkish government to
this day denies that any genocide occurred, and no president since
Ronald Reagan has used that term while in office. Bush pledged
to correct that. "The Armenians were subjected to a genocidal
campaign," he wrote. "If elected President, I would ensure that
our nation properly recognizes the tragic suffering of the Armenian
people." Bush lost in Michigan, won the presidency ... and then bailed
on his pledge. Last fall, the House of Representatives looked set
to adopt a resolution affirming the Armenian genocide. But as Turkey
threatened to disrupt its commercial ties with the United States and
to invade Iraq, President Bush warned that America could not afford
to alienate Turkey and pushed Congress to drop the measure.
Today, Edgar Hagopian, one of the letter's two recipients, acknowledges
his disappointment. "I have written to President Bush many times
but have not gotten a response," he said, reeling at the remarkable
turnaround that transformed Bush into the biggest obstacle to an
official recognition.
Bush's record is sure to haunt McCain's 2008 presidential run, but
it's not as if the Arizona senator needed any help in alienating
Armenian-Americans. McCain's own stance against genocide recognition
and his relative indifference toward bilateral relations with Armenia
have been a matter of record since well before George W. Bush emerged
on the national stage. Barack Obama, conversely, looked committed to
the affirmation of the events of 1915 as a genocide long before he
decided on a presidential run. In fact, in the superheated world of
ethnic grievance politics, rarely do presidential elections feature
such a clear contrast between two candidates. In the case of states
with a substantial Armenian-American presence (including California,
New Jersey, Michigan and Nevada) that contrast could hurt McCain.
Historically, neither party has owned the support of
Armenian-Americans. Rather than stake their fortune with one party,
national advocacy groups--starting with the Armenian National Committee
of America (ANCA) and the Armenian Assembly of America--have pursued
a bipartisan course.
Thanks in part to this strategy, the Armenian-American community
has grown into a highly effective interest group. Cory Welt of
Georgetown's Eurasian Strategy Project mentions the Armenian lobby's
strength as an explanation for what he calls the "exceptional" size
of Armenian foreign aid. The Congressional Caucus on Armenian issues
has a bipartisan leadership (it is co-chaired by a Democrat from New
Jersey, Rep. Frank Pallone, and a Republican from Michigan, Rep. Joe
Knollenberg) and a large contingent of 150 members, including 13 of
Michigan's 15 U.S. Representatives, 38 of California's 53 and 11 of
New Jersey's 13.
by Daniel Nichanian
Atlantic Online
October 8, 2008
"In the superheated world of ethnic grievance politics, rarely do
presidential elections feature such a clear contrast between two
candidates. In California, New Jersey, Michigan and Nevada, that
contrast could hurt McCain."
Eight years ago, George W. Bush was battling an
unexpectedly competitive John McCain for the GOP's presidential
nomination. Scheduled to vote just days after South Carolina, Michigan
suddenly looked decisive--and its substantial Armenian-American
population became an attractive voting block.
Three days before the vote, Governor Bush sent a letter to two
Armenian-American businessmen addressing the Armenian community's
biggest demand--recognition that the 1915 extermination of Armenians in
the Ottoman Empire was an act of genocide. The Turkish government to
this day denies that any genocide occurred, and no president since
Ronald Reagan has used that term while in office. Bush pledged
to correct that. "The Armenians were subjected to a genocidal
campaign," he wrote. "If elected President, I would ensure that
our nation properly recognizes the tragic suffering of the Armenian
people." Bush lost in Michigan, won the presidency ... and then bailed
on his pledge. Last fall, the House of Representatives looked set
to adopt a resolution affirming the Armenian genocide. But as Turkey
threatened to disrupt its commercial ties with the United States and
to invade Iraq, President Bush warned that America could not afford
to alienate Turkey and pushed Congress to drop the measure.
Today, Edgar Hagopian, one of the letter's two recipients, acknowledges
his disappointment. "I have written to President Bush many times
but have not gotten a response," he said, reeling at the remarkable
turnaround that transformed Bush into the biggest obstacle to an
official recognition.
Bush's record is sure to haunt McCain's 2008 presidential run, but
it's not as if the Arizona senator needed any help in alienating
Armenian-Americans. McCain's own stance against genocide recognition
and his relative indifference toward bilateral relations with Armenia
have been a matter of record since well before George W. Bush emerged
on the national stage. Barack Obama, conversely, looked committed to
the affirmation of the events of 1915 as a genocide long before he
decided on a presidential run. In fact, in the superheated world of
ethnic grievance politics, rarely do presidential elections feature
such a clear contrast between two candidates. In the case of states
with a substantial Armenian-American presence (including California,
New Jersey, Michigan and Nevada) that contrast could hurt McCain.
Historically, neither party has owned the support of
Armenian-Americans. Rather than stake their fortune with one party,
national advocacy groups--starting with the Armenian National Committee
of America (ANCA) and the Armenian Assembly of America--have pursued
a bipartisan course.
Thanks in part to this strategy, the Armenian-American community
has grown into a highly effective interest group. Cory Welt of
Georgetown's Eurasian Strategy Project mentions the Armenian lobby's
strength as an explanation for what he calls the "exceptional" size
of Armenian foreign aid. The Congressional Caucus on Armenian issues
has a bipartisan leadership (it is co-chaired by a Democrat from New
Jersey, Rep. Frank Pallone, and a Republican from Michigan, Rep. Joe
Knollenberg) and a large contingent of 150 members, including 13 of
Michigan's 15 U.S. Representatives, 38 of California's 53 and 11 of
New Jersey's 13.