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Tbilisi: Georgia's Political Model: "Cyprusization" Or "Lebanonizati

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  • Tbilisi: Georgia's Political Model: "Cyprusization" Or "Lebanonizati

    GEORGIA'S POLITICAL MODEL: "CYPRUSIZATION" OR "LEBANONIZATION"

    Daily Georgian Times
    October 14.10.2008 08:40:05
    Georgia

    Political processes in Georgia have acquired quite dangerous trends
    that can be somewhat difficult to forecast. Russian aggression has
    given rise to a new geopolitical benchmark not only on the regional,
    but also on the global level. The establishment of a new world order
    has been initiated, in which the US hegemony is going downward and may
    even be experiencing a total collapse. This is not only in military
    and political terms, but also because of the onset of a very deep
    financial crisis and possible collapse.

    The biggest geostrategic failure of the current Bush administration
    is indicative of the deterioration of the USA military and political
    status in Iraq, and most notably in Afghanistan. There, NATO is
    relinquishing control over the situation, and very soon we may witness
    the entry of traditional Taliban movements in this country. This
    is accompanied by the fact that Karzai, Afghanistan's president,
    has made an official address to Mula Omar, leader of the Taliban
    Movement, and called on the initiation of strategic cooperation and
    the participation of Mula Omar in the Afghan government.

    Against this background, in a geopolitical context signs of
    tri-polarism are emerging - the players being the USA, the Russian
    Federation and the EU. The most interesting aspect is that the new
    tri-polarism has started from the Caucasus region and will be developed
    within this region. Such factors have been identified as well, even in
    terms of the distribution of a new balance of powers at the regional
    level. This can be seen in the initiation of the "Caucasus political
    platform" and the introduction of new regional leaders.

    Geostrategic positions of the Russian Federation in the Caucasus region
    have obviously increased; Russia's is allied with Iran and indirectly
    with Turkey. Apparently, in the context of geopolitical redistribution,
    a new trend of management of conflict spots can be observed. This
    was demonstrated in the resolution of the Karabagh conflict, when
    Turkey decided to take on a more active mediator role and initiate the
    process of tightening ties with Armenia. The processes, of course,
    will have a negative effect on Georgia, which can lose its unique
    geopolitical status and become just a certain geopolitical "adjunct."

    If the "Gordiev knot" of Turkey-Armenia and Armenia-Azerbaijan opens,
    which will be followed by the modification of relations between Russia
    and Turkey, Turkey and Iran, and Azerbaijan and Iran, the general
    political background of the region will change entirely. In which
    case, the Georgian-American strategic modality may become secondary
    and serve as a major opposing factor to new geopolitical coalitions.

    Such a complicated geopolitical modality for Georgia is already
    becoming a reality. The development following the August 7 events
    indicates the possibility that such a scenario may emerge. By
    approximation, geopolitical transformation of the Caucasus region may
    become very similar to the model of the Near East region, which was
    identified at the end of 70's and early 80's. In such a case, however
    disappointing, Georgia may be destined to repeat the experiences of
    Lebanon, which had the most acute problems of territorial integrity,
    domestic policy disorder, a difficult regional political situation
    and direct involvement of the International Community at the national
    and regional levels, e.g. NATO, EU, USA, USSR and the UN.

    Exactly during this most complex geopolitical background, Georgia tries
    to balance relations with all regional powers, of course, excluding
    Russia (due to objective reasons) and identify a new geopolitical niche
    in the processes being developed around the country. "Mechanical moves"
    of Georgian diplomacy that are not supported by specific analytical
    approaches (such a negative trend has become especially visible today)
    further aggravates the issue of successfully resolving of the country's
    foreign policy issues. (Not only is there the absence of a relatively
    decent-functioning strategic research center, but even the state
    structures do not take due efforts in this direction.) But this is a
    tactical weakness, and can be fixed relatively easily. The strategic
    level geopolitical stance is characterized by the trend of being out of
    Georgia's control, since is determined by the power centers which have
    global and regional influence, and are duly represented at present -
    the EU, USA, Russian Federation, UN, OSCE, Turkey and now Iran.

    Therefore, when we talk about Georgia's possible role in regional
    and trans-regional levels in such circumstances, many researchers
    compare it to the model of "Cyprusizaton," which is identical only
    from the viewpoint of legal clichés (since the North Cyprus republic
    has been recognized by only Turkey, Abkhazia and so-called South
    Ossetia are in the same condition in Georgia's case, which have
    been recognized only by the Russian Federation). If we talk in the
    context of geopolitical modality, Georgia can be better compared with
    "Lebanonization." Specific examples to clarify this can be seen in
    the table below:

    To see table click:

    http://www.geotimes.ge/index.php?m=home&am p;newsid=13014

    Such is the basic analysis of the geopolitical situation developing
    around Georgia. We will see what the future holds.

    David Chaduneli , Malkhaz Gulashvili "Azri," GT Center for Strategic
    Research 2008.10.13 16:21

    --Boundary_(ID_rquJPv3KgiksCK9TPq5wVQ)--
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