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Yerevan's Multiple Vector

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  • Yerevan's Multiple Vector

    YEREVAN'S MULTIPLE VECTOR
    by Sarkis Levonjan

    WPS Agency
    What the Papers Say (Russia)
    October 3, 2008 Friday
    Russia

    WAR IN GEORGIA BECAME AN ADDITIONAL CATALYST FOR THE ARMENIAN-IRANIAN
    RELATIONS; The war in Georgia reactivated the Armenian-Iranian
    cooperation.

    The Five Day War in Georgia has had its effect on absolutely all
    countries of the region without exception. Disruption of communications
    cost national economies dearly. Armenia found itself among the
    countries the war hurt particularly bad. Existing in semi-blockade
    because of the conflict with Azerbaijan, Armenia found itself cut
    off from the rest of the world. Experts estimated harm to Armenian
    economy at half a billion dollars.

    The August events exposed fragility of Armenia's links with the rest
    of the world and forced on official Yerevan activization of a search
    for additional transport arteries. Normalization of relations with
    Azerbaijan is a process whose outcome cannot be predicted yet with
    any degree of accuracy. Turkey is making but first and tentative steps
    to establish contacts with Armenia. Lacking any other choice, Yerevan
    intensified its relations with Tehran. Traditionally anti-Iranian, the
    United States understands the fix Armenia has found itself in and does
    not really object to advancement of the Armenian-Iranian relations,
    dismissing them as being of little if any importance. Russia in its
    turn observes what is happening with interest. It has far-reaching
    designs for Armenia, its strategic ally, in the geopolitical project
    of the North and the South in which even Tehran might be involved
    one fine day.

    Relations between Armenia and Iran were boosted by bilateral
    summits. Presidents Robert Kocharjan and Mahmud Ahmadinejad met,
    discussed matters of common interest (economic interest, first and
    foremost), and ordered establishment of a special government commission
    monitoring realization of several energy projects.

    The Armenian-Iranian relations meanwhile began developing a purely
    political component as well. Said Jalili, Secretary of the Supreme
    National Security Council of Iran, met with his Armenian counterpart
    Arthur Bagdasarjan and suggested consultations between national
    security services. Bagdasarjan was even invited to visit Tehran,
    an invitation that was gladly accepted. There is understanding in
    both capitals that these countries need each other.

    Official Tehran aspires to regional leadership and counts on
    Armenian support. No wonder Iran energetically promotes itself as an
    intermediary in the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, these days. The so far
    hypothetical Tehran-Yerevan axis is viewed as a counterweight to the
    already existing Baku-Ankara one.

    By and large, however, economic contacts dominate the Armenian-Iranian
    relations for the time being. The war in Georgia last month confirmed
    validity of this assumption. Over 70% of the Armenian freight traffic
    activity normally goes across the territory of Georgia. Damage to
    Armenian economy when the Georgian Railroad stopped cold would have
    been even more profound than the estimated $500 million were it not
    for the highway connecting Armenia with Iran. Armenian Transportation
    and Communications Minister Gurgen Sarkisjan said deliveries of fuel
    and grain to Armenia had been organized with Iran's help. The idea
    to connect Armenian and Iranian railroad networks was suggested all
    over again.

    Russian Railroads promised to finance the project. Iran may invest
    something too, as well as some international organizations like
    the World Bank and Armenian Bank of Development. Implementation of
    the project will give Armenia an alternative route to Iran and Asia
    beyond. In fact, even Russia and some European countries might find
    this railroad an interesting solution. Iran and Armenia already have
    an agreement that puts Iranian ports on the Caspian Sea and in the
    Persian Gulf at Armenian freight forwarders' disposal (and on some
    lenient terms at that). With the new railroad built and functioning,
    semi-blockade of Armenia will become history. It will inevitably
    increase geopolitical importance of Armenia.
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