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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN AZERBAIJAN
Alexander Iskandaryan
Eurasian Home Analytical Resource
October 20, 2008
Russia
The presidential election in Azerbaijan is of little interest in terms
of influence on the political situation in the country and in the
South Caucasus as a whole. The election returns are quite predictable,
incumbent President Ilham Aliyev has no serious rivals and his easy
victory was assured.
In this sense there were no surprises in the election. Aliyev took
over 89 % of the vote. His getting, for example, 53% would come as
a surprise to me. But the Azerbaijani regime does not allow this
election to change the political situation drastically. The election
is nothing but confirmation of Aliyev's legitimacy as President,
which is necessary for both foreign and domestic political 'markets'.
It is another matter that the so-called five-day war in Georgia and the
syndrome of 'football' diplomacy between Turkey and Armenia have really
changed Azerbaijan's place in the region. We are the South Caucasus and
all the three countries are directly connected with each other. The old
South Caucasus ceased to exist and the new one has not appeared yet.
It is clear that Georgia is weaker than it used to be, whatever is
said. Europe does not look on Tbilisi as the lamp of democracy in
the Caucasus any longer. The same is most likely to hold true for
the USA after the presidential election.
Of course, in the future Georgia may regain its authority. What
is more, if Georgia controls Abkhazia and South Ossetia again,
the country will overcome the collapse. But it will take years and
Azerbaijan understands that.
The second factor is recognition by Russia of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia. They cannot be called full-fledged states. But now they
implement the processes in the Caucasus. Georgia will unlikely use
force in order to regain control over them. Therefore, Abkhazia
and South Ossetia will continue to seek statehood, which Azerbaijan
also understands.
This happens against a background of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
because of which Armenian-Azerbaijani relations are so complicated. So,
it comes natural that Russia strengthens its role in the South
Caucasus. The Azerbaijani authorities are concerned about it. I
repeat that this situation is not everlasting - Russia strengthened
and weakened its role in the region at different times. Baku came
to realize that the Nogorno-Karabakh issue cannot be solved by
using force.
Apart from that, Turkey is trying to spread its influence in the South
Caucasus. Evidently, the country has come to agreement with Russia
about that. For the time being, there is no telling what will come
of it. Still another important factor is the Russo-American rivalry
over the Nagorny-Karabakh issue. All of those factors are active, they
are not counterbalanced, so the situation is developing dynamically.
Alexander Iskandaryan
Eurasian Home Analytical Resource
October 20, 2008
Russia
The presidential election in Azerbaijan is of little interest in terms
of influence on the political situation in the country and in the
South Caucasus as a whole. The election returns are quite predictable,
incumbent President Ilham Aliyev has no serious rivals and his easy
victory was assured.
In this sense there were no surprises in the election. Aliyev took
over 89 % of the vote. His getting, for example, 53% would come as
a surprise to me. But the Azerbaijani regime does not allow this
election to change the political situation drastically. The election
is nothing but confirmation of Aliyev's legitimacy as President,
which is necessary for both foreign and domestic political 'markets'.
It is another matter that the so-called five-day war in Georgia and the
syndrome of 'football' diplomacy between Turkey and Armenia have really
changed Azerbaijan's place in the region. We are the South Caucasus and
all the three countries are directly connected with each other. The old
South Caucasus ceased to exist and the new one has not appeared yet.
It is clear that Georgia is weaker than it used to be, whatever is
said. Europe does not look on Tbilisi as the lamp of democracy in
the Caucasus any longer. The same is most likely to hold true for
the USA after the presidential election.
Of course, in the future Georgia may regain its authority. What
is more, if Georgia controls Abkhazia and South Ossetia again,
the country will overcome the collapse. But it will take years and
Azerbaijan understands that.
The second factor is recognition by Russia of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia. They cannot be called full-fledged states. But now they
implement the processes in the Caucasus. Georgia will unlikely use
force in order to regain control over them. Therefore, Abkhazia
and South Ossetia will continue to seek statehood, which Azerbaijan
also understands.
This happens against a background of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
because of which Armenian-Azerbaijani relations are so complicated. So,
it comes natural that Russia strengthens its role in the South
Caucasus. The Azerbaijani authorities are concerned about it. I
repeat that this situation is not everlasting - Russia strengthened
and weakened its role in the region at different times. Baku came
to realize that the Nogorno-Karabakh issue cannot be solved by
using force.
Apart from that, Turkey is trying to spread its influence in the South
Caucasus. Evidently, the country has come to agreement with Russia
about that. For the time being, there is no telling what will come
of it. Still another important factor is the Russo-American rivalry
over the Nagorny-Karabakh issue. All of those factors are active, they
are not counterbalanced, so the situation is developing dynamically.