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On The Verge Of Confrontation Inside The Government

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  • On The Verge Of Confrontation Inside The Government

    ON THE VERGE OF CONFRONTATION INSIDE THE GOVERNMENT
    Haik Aramyan

    Lragir.am
    13:57:26 - 21/10/2008

    In the rally of October 17 Levon Ter-Petrosyan stated that the
    opposition temporarily stops public struggle, explaining that by
    geopolitical factors, and particularly the danger posed to Karabakh. By
    this step of the first president the internal "status quo" of the
    recent months in Armenia changes, and may lead to serious change and
    redistribution. The problem has two aspects, internal and external. On
    the internal arena, over the six months of his office Serge Sargsyan
    was unable to settle the post-election situation and establish
    his pyramid of government. On the external arena, the situation
    becomes unfavorable for Serge Sargsyan. He was actually "let down"
    in the developments regarding the Armenian and Turkish relations, the
    sweeping start of which promised serious political capital to Serge
    Sargsyan. It turned out that the recurrent Russian-Turkish alliance
    involved return of Karabakh to Azerbaijan and deployment of Russian
    troops there. Meanwhile, the readiness to return the territories had
    already been announced on behalf of Serge Sargsyan. In fact, Serge
    Sargsyan's government was not adequate to the political developments,
    and got entangled in their "initiatives", from which there is only
    one way out - to agree to meet every external pressure and demand.

    For their part, the recent reports in the press that Robert Kocharyan
    is going to return to politics in November become interesting.

    Ter-Petrosyan's departure from the arena and the current situation of
    the government on the one hand, and the recent developments regarding
    the Karabakh issue on the other hand, enable Kocharyan to create a
    basis for his return. The point is that in public consciousness the
    approaches of Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Serge Sargsyan towards the issue
    of NKR and the regional problems do not differ much, while Kocharyan's
    point of view is different. In one of his recent interviews Kocharyan
    underlined that difference, stating that he would not have invited Gul
    to Armenia. And if at that time the statement was described as a major
    political mistake, in the current complicated situation it may become
    a trump card. For their part, the ARF Dashnaktsutyun and the Bargavach
    Hayastan Party, as well as the "political" wing of the Republicans
    may join Kocharyan, thereby dissolving the political coalition.

    In addition, the issue of the March 1 tragedy again became a
    burning topic in the sense that for the first time the international
    organizations demanded to hold the government accountable although
    the government tries to blame the opposition for the tragedy of March
    1. In addition, the international organizations present this problem
    together with other problems, which does not allow the government to
    maneuver. Hence, the tragedy should be blamed on someone, which is
    another reason for a serious confrontation inside the government.

    It is difficult to tell whether this situation has dictated the current
    tactics of the opposition, about which Levon Ter-Petrosyan stated,
    noting however that he is not going to reveal the details. On the other
    hand, it is strange that the West and the United States in particular
    endorse Serge Sargsyan's "bold steps" every now and then. Obviously,
    Serge Sargsyan is pushed to take steps both inside the country and
    in foreign policies. What steps are they and do they refer to the
    Turkish-Armenian relations? Perhaps not only and no all that. Most
    probably, the problem is to bring about a new situation in Armenia,
    after which all the other problems will be "solved". And there are
    all the preconditions for that. Here it is worthwhile to remember
    the discourse on the "second generation reforms" in Armenia before
    the presidential election 2007, which ended in the night of May 12
    and the morning of May 13, 2007.
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