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  • Baku: Russia Not Interested In Resolution Of Nagorno-Karabakh Confli

    RUSSIA NOT INTERESTED IN RESOLUTION OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT BY MILITARY MEANS: PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA'S NATIONAL STRATEGY INSTITUTE

    TREND Information
    23.10.08 10:30
    Azerbaijan

    Mikhail Remizov, President of Russia's National Strategy Institute
    especially for TrendNews

    Russia's motives in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
    are evident. Though it does not affect Moscow as in case of Georgia's
    conflicts with its former autonomies, it is of great significance for
    Kremlin as it restricts geopolitical opportunities in the region and
    it creates zone of vulnerability.

    Armenia is Russia's ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organization
    (CSTO). If serious military actions begin and Russia finds formal
    excuse refusing to help, not acting as a guarantee of security for
    its ally, it will deal a serious blow to the image of CSTO and will
    cast doubts over the core of ally ties with Russia. On the other hand,
    Russia is very important partner of Azerbaijan. Russia does not want
    to harm relations with Azerbaijan because of Karabakh problem.

    Therefore, Russia is not interested the resolution of the conflict
    by military means. Now it is more likely to happen. Azerbaijan has
    lost its patience and more and more statements are made about the
    necessity to solve the problem.

    The other regional players can be interested in the escalation of the
    conflict. Russia's real aim is to prevent it. It does not mean that
    the conflict will be settled. I do not believe in the resolution of
    such land disputes that will satisfy both sides.

    Certain political pragmatism could recommend Azerbaijan and Armenia
    certain moderateness in this issue. Karabakh factor is ballast for both
    sides in international policy. As a dynamically developing regional
    power with a good potential, Azerbaijan does not need to spend energy
    on the dead-end military conflict. Though Azerbaijan's economic and
    military potential is high, Nagorno-Karabakh has strong mobilized
    potential given the number of the Armenians all over the world,
    psychological readiness and opportunities of the Armenian diaspora.

    Armenia is in geographic isolation, especially after Russia-Georgia
    conflict. Armenia-Turkey relations are closely linked with the
    Nagorno-Karabakh problem and Yerevan must solve this problem in order
    to restore relations with Turkey. This would be favorable for both
    parties. But the sides will hardly move towards each other. Therefore,
    the best thing to do is to maintain status quo and to prevent next
    struggle from sparking off.

    The experience of Trans-Dniester conflict showed that Russia fails to
    replace format of peacekeeping groups. At that time, Moscow could not
    remove EU and US out of brackets. Furthermore, US is an important
    player for Armenia and Azerbaijan on the equal level. Therefore,
    main point is not to exclude US from the peacekeeping process, but to
    prevent possible freezing of conflicts in the region. I feel America,
    as an out-of-region player, considers any result of freezing of the
    conflict acceptable for itself. At any case, it will mean to increase
    zone of vulnerability of Azerbaijan and Armenia and strengthening
    America's stakes in the region.

    Opinions expressed in this article may be different of those held by
    Trend News
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