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RASIM MUSABEYOV: "MOSCOW'S PERSECUTION OF ITS OWN INTERESTS, RATHER THAN ARMENIANS' EXCESS EXPECTATIONS IN THE ISSUE OF THE CAUCASUS POLICY, HAS BECOME AN UNPLEASANT SURPRISE FOR ARMENIANS"
Today.Az
27 October 2008 [13:14]
Day.Az interview with famous Azerbaijani political scientist Rasim
Musabeyov.
- Russian State Duma deputy Konstantin Zatulin announced that "the
package of the Karabakh solution, envisioning recognition of "Nagorno
Karabakh Republic" and return of the seven regions has been developed
long before".
Why was it made public only now? Is this statement true?
- I would recommend you not to pay too much attention to Zatulin's
words. He is speaking on the problems of conflicts and the situation
in the post-Soviet area too much, but he bears little connection to the
adoption of important foreign political decisions of Russia. Moreover,
Zatulin is not an objective person. He is merely pro-Armenian and
does not conceal it.
I would like to remind that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
said in open after the August events in Georgia and recognition of
independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia that Russia
does not intend to make similar steps towards Nagorno Karabakh. It
is obvious that currently Moscow is persuading Armenians for the
goodwill withdrawal of their troops from the occupied lands of
Azerbaijan. Russia seems to be more concerned over meeting its own
economic and strategic interests than recognition of independence of
Nagorno Karabakh.
As for why Zatulin is saying so, if he made this statement by his
own initiative, it means he is trying to develop his friendship with
Yerevan and Karabakh separatists to provoke a negative reaction in
Azerbaijan. But I do not rule out that a necessary background is
created by such statements for those agreements, to which the parties
will come at the upcoming meeting in Moscow under Medvedev's mediation,
to seem more appropriate for our public.
- Armenia considers that Russia make cautious statements on Nagorno
Karabakh conflict being unwilling to spoil relations with Azerbaijan
due to oil and gas transportation. Do you agree with it?
- They are right, but Russia's interest in Azerbaijan is not limited
with the oil and gas issues and the issues of their transportation
to the world markets. Azerbaijan is an attractive growing
market. Moreover, it is profitable, as compared to Armenia. The
Russian defense industry complex would have been glad to sell arms
to us, but we do not trust to Moscow due to the Karabakh conflict and
Moscow does not supply advanced ammunitions to us, as it may be used
against its outpost - Armenia.
Moreover, in order to preserve any military balance, Moscow will
have to increase financial aid to Armenia, transfer arms to it free
of change, which implies direct losses. Azerbaijan is an important
partner in the North-South transport corridor, unlike Yerevan, which
is unable to help Moscow to preserve stability in the North Caucasus
and neutralize Islamist terror and radical groupings.
Therefore, the constructive interaction with Baku is
important. Azerbaijan's position is important for Moscow also due to
the strained situation in Iran and Georgia.
In other words, the volume and importance of political and economic
relations between Russia and Azerbaijan do not fall under comparison
with Armenia. Moscow is with Armenia at heart, but its real interests
are targeting Azerbaijan. Therefore, Armenians are anxious that
they can become a token coin in the large political poker, laid in
the region.
- How do you assess the recent visit of Dmitri Medvedev to Yerevan
and his statements, made in Armenia?
- The visit was an ordinary one. The Armenian-Russian agenda was so
poor that it is difficult to present any significant results of this
visit to the world and their own publics. They opened a Russian square
in Yerevan, spoke of the Karabakh conflict and privileged gas prices,
situation with Georgia.
Fantastic projects of construction of an oil refinery in Megri are
not from the sphere of real policy, especially in conditions of the
approaching global financial crisis. That's it. Medvedev has not
made any significant statements during his visit to Armenia. He did
not visit the Russian military base and did not rejoice Armenians as
regards the Karabakh conflict.
- Don't you think that the format of the OSCE Minsk Group about the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict is threatened due to the global
processes, related to Russia and the United States? Is the OSCE Minsk
Group effective today?
- It is obvious that differences between the co-chairs are observed
following Russia's August actions. Even representatives of France
Bernard Fassier and the United States Matthew Bryza paid their recent
visits to the region in separate. In such conditions it is difficult
to say that the Minsk group is effective. But it is also early to
put this format to the archive.
Though the whole period of its work the Minsk Group has managed to
make the positions of the conflict parties closer. I am sure that
any agreements will anyway base on the initiatives of the Minsk
Group. Moreover, I do not exclude that if the sides do not come to a
mutually profitable compromise, a Minsk conference will be convened
for definition of the status of Nagorno Karabakh, as it has been
envisioned by the initial mandate of the OSCE on the said issue.
Moscow's persecution of its own interests, rather than Armenians'
excess expectations, in the issue of the Caucasus policy, have
become an unpleasant surprise for Armenians, though most far-seeing
politicians warned them of the inevitability of such a turn. History
repeats, as it occurred in the early last century, when Armenian
claims fell victims of the relations with Baku and Ankara. But
despite the total dependence on Moscow, Armenians will protract
the conflict. Notably, in the threshold of the decisive talks
in Moscow the Armenian opposition started to support Sargsyan to
demonstrate stubbornness, demonstrative trainings were held urgently
in Nagorno Karabakh and bellicose statements are voiced. But it will
hardly work. In the conditions of the financial crisis, Armenia,
fully dependent on external monetary flows, is not able to resist
external pressure. Today Yerevan is envious about Georgia, which got
a promise of $5bln from the United States in a response to Russian
intervention. I think that Armenians' last hope is for Obama's victory
in the US presidential elections and his fulfilling his promise
regarding recognition of "genocide" and provision of support of the
variant of the Karabakh resolution profitable for Armenia and allocate
financial aid to Armenia in exchange for Armenians support to him.
- Don't the recent events and Medvedev's visit to Yerevan prove that
Russia decided to strengthen its influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan
by mediating the Karabakh issue?
- I expected Medvedev to put forward an initiative on overcoming the
deadlock in the Karabakh issue and I have repeatedly stated that in
my interviews and comments, including for Day.Az. The Georgian events
of August showed that it is impossible to preserve the current state
of "neither peace nor war". Conflicts "defreeze". Moscow probes to
consolidate its weakened influence in the region through promotion
of the peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict for the parties
to be grateful to it and to preserve its influence as a super-arbiter
in the issue of the status and security.
Moreover, this is the only way by means of which Russia may open
communications for military cargoes to its outpost Armenia, cut after
the war between Russia and Georgia.
Well, stubbornness is a feature of the Armenian natural character. This
made them successful in handicrafts, science, trade and sports. But
as for geopolitics, such feature often leads to reassessment of
one's potential and they missed the real achievements while pursuing
greater goals. Armenia is blocked between Turkey, which is ten times
as stronger as it is and Armenia, which is outstripping Armenians for
population and economic might by three or four times. The correlation
is changing not in Armenia's favor and no efforts of the diaspora
and external supporters would be able to change this balance.
I can not claim that it is now time for the reasonable assessment
of the situation and the Russian mediation of the Karabakh conflict
will be productive. We have previously witnessed that under such a
mediation, for example of French president Jacquie Chiraque at the
meeting of Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Paris or under
mediation of US Secretary of State Collin Powell in Ki-West the states
came closer to attaining an agreement.
Yet, they finally made a step behind. But there are still chances for
the progress in the conflict resolution and it would be good if they
come true.
Today.Az
27 October 2008 [13:14]
Day.Az interview with famous Azerbaijani political scientist Rasim
Musabeyov.
- Russian State Duma deputy Konstantin Zatulin announced that "the
package of the Karabakh solution, envisioning recognition of "Nagorno
Karabakh Republic" and return of the seven regions has been developed
long before".
Why was it made public only now? Is this statement true?
- I would recommend you not to pay too much attention to Zatulin's
words. He is speaking on the problems of conflicts and the situation
in the post-Soviet area too much, but he bears little connection to the
adoption of important foreign political decisions of Russia. Moreover,
Zatulin is not an objective person. He is merely pro-Armenian and
does not conceal it.
I would like to remind that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
said in open after the August events in Georgia and recognition of
independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia that Russia
does not intend to make similar steps towards Nagorno Karabakh. It
is obvious that currently Moscow is persuading Armenians for the
goodwill withdrawal of their troops from the occupied lands of
Azerbaijan. Russia seems to be more concerned over meeting its own
economic and strategic interests than recognition of independence of
Nagorno Karabakh.
As for why Zatulin is saying so, if he made this statement by his
own initiative, it means he is trying to develop his friendship with
Yerevan and Karabakh separatists to provoke a negative reaction in
Azerbaijan. But I do not rule out that a necessary background is
created by such statements for those agreements, to which the parties
will come at the upcoming meeting in Moscow under Medvedev's mediation,
to seem more appropriate for our public.
- Armenia considers that Russia make cautious statements on Nagorno
Karabakh conflict being unwilling to spoil relations with Azerbaijan
due to oil and gas transportation. Do you agree with it?
- They are right, but Russia's interest in Azerbaijan is not limited
with the oil and gas issues and the issues of their transportation
to the world markets. Azerbaijan is an attractive growing
market. Moreover, it is profitable, as compared to Armenia. The
Russian defense industry complex would have been glad to sell arms
to us, but we do not trust to Moscow due to the Karabakh conflict and
Moscow does not supply advanced ammunitions to us, as it may be used
against its outpost - Armenia.
Moreover, in order to preserve any military balance, Moscow will
have to increase financial aid to Armenia, transfer arms to it free
of change, which implies direct losses. Azerbaijan is an important
partner in the North-South transport corridor, unlike Yerevan, which
is unable to help Moscow to preserve stability in the North Caucasus
and neutralize Islamist terror and radical groupings.
Therefore, the constructive interaction with Baku is
important. Azerbaijan's position is important for Moscow also due to
the strained situation in Iran and Georgia.
In other words, the volume and importance of political and economic
relations between Russia and Azerbaijan do not fall under comparison
with Armenia. Moscow is with Armenia at heart, but its real interests
are targeting Azerbaijan. Therefore, Armenians are anxious that
they can become a token coin in the large political poker, laid in
the region.
- How do you assess the recent visit of Dmitri Medvedev to Yerevan
and his statements, made in Armenia?
- The visit was an ordinary one. The Armenian-Russian agenda was so
poor that it is difficult to present any significant results of this
visit to the world and their own publics. They opened a Russian square
in Yerevan, spoke of the Karabakh conflict and privileged gas prices,
situation with Georgia.
Fantastic projects of construction of an oil refinery in Megri are
not from the sphere of real policy, especially in conditions of the
approaching global financial crisis. That's it. Medvedev has not
made any significant statements during his visit to Armenia. He did
not visit the Russian military base and did not rejoice Armenians as
regards the Karabakh conflict.
- Don't you think that the format of the OSCE Minsk Group about the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict is threatened due to the global
processes, related to Russia and the United States? Is the OSCE Minsk
Group effective today?
- It is obvious that differences between the co-chairs are observed
following Russia's August actions. Even representatives of France
Bernard Fassier and the United States Matthew Bryza paid their recent
visits to the region in separate. In such conditions it is difficult
to say that the Minsk group is effective. But it is also early to
put this format to the archive.
Though the whole period of its work the Minsk Group has managed to
make the positions of the conflict parties closer. I am sure that
any agreements will anyway base on the initiatives of the Minsk
Group. Moreover, I do not exclude that if the sides do not come to a
mutually profitable compromise, a Minsk conference will be convened
for definition of the status of Nagorno Karabakh, as it has been
envisioned by the initial mandate of the OSCE on the said issue.
Moscow's persecution of its own interests, rather than Armenians'
excess expectations, in the issue of the Caucasus policy, have
become an unpleasant surprise for Armenians, though most far-seeing
politicians warned them of the inevitability of such a turn. History
repeats, as it occurred in the early last century, when Armenian
claims fell victims of the relations with Baku and Ankara. But
despite the total dependence on Moscow, Armenians will protract
the conflict. Notably, in the threshold of the decisive talks
in Moscow the Armenian opposition started to support Sargsyan to
demonstrate stubbornness, demonstrative trainings were held urgently
in Nagorno Karabakh and bellicose statements are voiced. But it will
hardly work. In the conditions of the financial crisis, Armenia,
fully dependent on external monetary flows, is not able to resist
external pressure. Today Yerevan is envious about Georgia, which got
a promise of $5bln from the United States in a response to Russian
intervention. I think that Armenians' last hope is for Obama's victory
in the US presidential elections and his fulfilling his promise
regarding recognition of "genocide" and provision of support of the
variant of the Karabakh resolution profitable for Armenia and allocate
financial aid to Armenia in exchange for Armenians support to him.
- Don't the recent events and Medvedev's visit to Yerevan prove that
Russia decided to strengthen its influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan
by mediating the Karabakh issue?
- I expected Medvedev to put forward an initiative on overcoming the
deadlock in the Karabakh issue and I have repeatedly stated that in
my interviews and comments, including for Day.Az. The Georgian events
of August showed that it is impossible to preserve the current state
of "neither peace nor war". Conflicts "defreeze". Moscow probes to
consolidate its weakened influence in the region through promotion
of the peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict for the parties
to be grateful to it and to preserve its influence as a super-arbiter
in the issue of the status and security.
Moreover, this is the only way by means of which Russia may open
communications for military cargoes to its outpost Armenia, cut after
the war between Russia and Georgia.
Well, stubbornness is a feature of the Armenian natural character. This
made them successful in handicrafts, science, trade and sports. But
as for geopolitics, such feature often leads to reassessment of
one's potential and they missed the real achievements while pursuing
greater goals. Armenia is blocked between Turkey, which is ten times
as stronger as it is and Armenia, which is outstripping Armenians for
population and economic might by three or four times. The correlation
is changing not in Armenia's favor and no efforts of the diaspora
and external supporters would be able to change this balance.
I can not claim that it is now time for the reasonable assessment
of the situation and the Russian mediation of the Karabakh conflict
will be productive. We have previously witnessed that under such a
mediation, for example of French president Jacquie Chiraque at the
meeting of Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Paris or under
mediation of US Secretary of State Collin Powell in Ki-West the states
came closer to attaining an agreement.
Yet, they finally made a step behind. But there are still chances for
the progress in the conflict resolution and it would be good if they
come true.