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  • Future Of State System

    FUTURE OF STATE SYSTEM
    Aurobinda Mahapatra (India)

    http://en.fondsk.ru/article.php?id=1588
    0 1.09.2008

    The developments in this year would likely generate a huge
    turning process in international political order. With the rise
    in aspirations of regions to get independent, their recognitions
    amidst contestations the state system vogue almost for three and half
    centuries has received a jolt, especially with the recognition of South
    Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia and earlier that of Kosovo. Russia
    has justified its recognition and cited Kosovo's independence as a
    perfect precedent which can be equally applicable to the breakaway
    regions of Georgia. The question that needs to be elicited is not
    that of Kosovo, Abkhazia or South Ossetia, but it is the larger
    question of the survival of the state system. There are around the
    world numerous disgruntled regions which, if granted independence,
    would radically alter the existing state system.

    The modern state system derives its existence to the treaty of
    Westphalia, 1648, which recognised the sovereignty of nation
    states. The treaty which encompasses the two peace treaties of
    Osnabruck and Munster, signed on 15 May and 24 October of 1648
    respectively, ended both the Thirty Years' War in Germany and the
    Eighty Years' War between Spain and the Netherlands. It initiated a new
    order in Europe based on the concept of national sovereignty. Earlier,
    it was not the state per20 se in the sense of its modern usage, but it
    was the empires and kingdoms, whether Greek, Roman, Mongol, Ottoman,
    Persian, Russian, etc. that were reigning over the world space. The
    medieval era was particularly called dark phase as it witnessed
    tussle between temporal and papal authorities at its height. The
    Westphalia treaty among then major powers led the emergence of the
    current state system.

    The two world wars were fought in the name of fighting imperialism
    and making the world safe for democracy. President Woodrow
    Wilson propounded fourteen points in 1918 as postulates of peace
    and order. The second world war that led to the defeat of Nazi
    totalitarianism was also aimed at making the world free from retrograde
    forces, and to provide rights to emerging nations to live in peace. The
    UN Charter of 1945 was an improved version of the League of Nations,
    which ostensibly failed to address the complicated issues, and due to
    non-compliance of its terms by its members. The UN Charter, Article
    1 of Chapter 1, called for international peace and security.

    The question of balancing national sovereignty and right to self
    determination has become a difficult balance in international politics
    as always. The concept of nationalism too has been highly contested
    and the same with the concept of right to self determination. The cold
    war, much driven by ideological considerations, witnessed much of the
    energy wasted over trivial issues. The world was polarised into two
    camps, with some of the developing countries adhering to a policy
    of non-alignment. The military blocs such as NATO and Warsaw Pact,
    erection of the Berlin wall on ideological basis, etc. led to much
    of the weakening of the state system.

    The UN succumbed to these ideological divisions and lost its sheen
    as a world body to maintain international peace and security.

    The end of the cold war did not witness any significant changes
    in international system, despite change in the patterns of global
    politics. It appeared that the old rivalry has not died down,
    rather it has refashioned itself. Though writers like Fukuyama has
    propounded that after the end of the cold war liberal ideas would
    emerge victorious, the international politics appeared to be much
    skewed as earlier. In the post cold war the hottest bed of politics,
    the theatre of contestation has been the Central Eurasian region. The
    ethnic diversities of the region have challenged the structure of
    state. Whether it was Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia or Abkhazia,
    the ethnic identities have resurfaced to assert their identities,
    not often recognised under international law.

    On a different plane, the imperatives of the new world order do not
    imply the disintegration of state system, but rather accommodation of
    diverse demands in a framework resilient federal structure. In the
    modern world, no particular state is absolutely homogenous20in its
    structure. Diverse aspirations are there, but it is the resilience and
    flexibility of the federal state to accommodate diverse aspirations
    or its rigid and totalitarian control over regions- that is going
    to determine much of the shape of state system in coming years. The
    question then revolves around possible harmonious coexistence of the
    diverse identities within a broader framework of national sovereignty.

    In South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the question then arises, could these
    regions stay united with the Georgian framework. Russia has argued
    that the Kosovo precedence is a clear case that set precedent for
    the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. If Kosovo with a
    distinct identity with the larger Serbian state system could not be
    accommodated, they why could the two republics within Georgia? Russia
    has taken into account its citizens in the two regions, the refugee
    issue in North Ossetia, and the attack of Georgia as the immediate
    trigger for the recognition of the republics.

    Beyond the surface things, it appears it is the tussle between
    the two approaches, not ideologies that have played much of the
    game. The Central Eurasian region, including the Trans-Caucasus,
    has become the theatre of new power politics. Behind the grandiose
    terms of New Great Game, Grand Chessboard, etc. the coming years may
    likely witness further conflagration in the region. In this rapidly
    developing fragile scenario, the responsibility o f powers like the
    US, Russia, the EU must be put to test in order to protect the state
    and affiliated vibrancy, instead of accelerating its demise.
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