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THE WOKEN GIANT
by Robert Hodgson
Budapest Times
Sept 4 2008
Hungary
Russia's aggression in Georgia may not be a new Cold War, but fears
of similar trouble in other "frozen" conflicts in post-USSR conflicts
are real.
Russia was isolated but defiant at the end of last week as the
diplomatic storm raged over its military intervention in Georgia and
its recognition last Tuesday of the independence of the breakaway
regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Russia's latest actions in the Caucasus have provoked censure
from NATO, the EU and, latterly the G7 group of industrialised
nations. Facing ostracism by the West, Russian president Dmitri
Medvedev asked his fellow members of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan) for official support of Russia's reaction to Georgian
"aggression".
He was rebuffed. "The presidents reaffirmed their commitment to the
principles of respect for historic and cultural traditions of every
country and efforts aimed at preserving the unity of a state and its
territorial integrity," ran the organisation's statement.
With talk of a new Cold War last week, the past three weeks have
reminded us of the potential of small states in historical tinderboxes
like the Caucasus and the Balkans to catalyse conflict between
world powers.
Russian tanks rolled into Georgia on 7 August after the latter launched
an offensive in a failed attempt to retake control of the breakaway
region of South Ossetia. They have since proved reluctant to leave,
and the spectre of ethnic cleansing on Europe's doorstep has been
raised for the first time since the 1990s.
South Ossetia declared independence in 1991, followed by Abkhazia in
1992, and both have been effectively autonomous since then. Russia's
move last week was the first official recognition of the provinces'
self-proclaimed status. Previously only the de facto independent
republics of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan and Transdniestria in
Moldova had recognised the two breakaway Georgian regions in a quid
pro quo deal.
Now there are fears that these and other "frozen" post-USSR conflicts
could flare up in the wake of the Georgian crisis. There is particular
concern over the possibility of Russia intervening in Moldova and
the Ukraine. The latter's pro-Western president Viktor Yushchenko has
said his country is hostage in a war waged by Russia against former
Soviet states.
"We are in a situation which marks a clear end to the relative and
growing calm in and around Europe since the collapse of the Soviet
Union," the British Foreign Minister David Milliband said on BBC
radio last Thursday morning. He was speaking after a trip to Ukraine,
seen as a provocation in Russia, where he assured Ukraine - whose
Eastern regions are largely pro-Russian - of the UK's commitment to
supporting its democratic choices.
There has been talk of EU sanctions against Russia. Russian PM
Vladimir Putin warned that sanctions would hurt the EU more than they
hurt Russia. Although French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said
sanctions were still on the cards, such measures were looking less
likely by the end of the week. French President Nicolas Sarkozy -
whose country currently holds the rotating EU presidency - last week
called an emergency summit for 1 September in order to formulate a
unified EU position on the Georgian question.
Putin added to the frosty atmosphere last Thursday by accusing the
US of deliberately stirring up trouble in Georgia. In a defiant
interview with CNN last Thursday, the former president said that the
US had men on the ground in Georgia and encouraged the country to
attack South Ossetia for the benefit of one of the US presidential
candidates. Whitehouse spokesperson Dana Perino promptly dismissed
Putin's claims as "irrational".
Hungary balances
Hungary last Wednesday joined the chorus of voices condemning
Russia's recognition of the independence of the breakaway Georgian
provinces. Foreign Minister Kinga Göncz said in a statement: "Hungary
regrets Russia's recognition of the independence of South Ossetia
and Abkhazia. The decision will not support stability in the region."
Göncz stressed that Hungary has from the start been committed to the
territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Caucasian republic. She
added that, despite the political tension, economic relations between
her country and Russia - which supplies over 80% of Hungary's natural
gas - remain sound.
Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány has in recent years been
criticised in EU circles for his perceived pro-Russian stance. In
particular he favoured Russia's Blue Stream oil pipeline over the
EU's rival Nabucco project. It is hoped that the Nabucco pipeline
would increase energy security by lessening dependence on the EU's
increasingly assertive eastern neighbour, by instead sourcing oil
from central Asia, the Caucasus or Iran.
--Boundary_(ID_l38ZQ0u8HO4F3oyLTyIlmg)--
by Robert Hodgson
Budapest Times
Sept 4 2008
Hungary
Russia's aggression in Georgia may not be a new Cold War, but fears
of similar trouble in other "frozen" conflicts in post-USSR conflicts
are real.
Russia was isolated but defiant at the end of last week as the
diplomatic storm raged over its military intervention in Georgia and
its recognition last Tuesday of the independence of the breakaway
regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Russia's latest actions in the Caucasus have provoked censure
from NATO, the EU and, latterly the G7 group of industrialised
nations. Facing ostracism by the West, Russian president Dmitri
Medvedev asked his fellow members of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan) for official support of Russia's reaction to Georgian
"aggression".
He was rebuffed. "The presidents reaffirmed their commitment to the
principles of respect for historic and cultural traditions of every
country and efforts aimed at preserving the unity of a state and its
territorial integrity," ran the organisation's statement.
With talk of a new Cold War last week, the past three weeks have
reminded us of the potential of small states in historical tinderboxes
like the Caucasus and the Balkans to catalyse conflict between
world powers.
Russian tanks rolled into Georgia on 7 August after the latter launched
an offensive in a failed attempt to retake control of the breakaway
region of South Ossetia. They have since proved reluctant to leave,
and the spectre of ethnic cleansing on Europe's doorstep has been
raised for the first time since the 1990s.
South Ossetia declared independence in 1991, followed by Abkhazia in
1992, and both have been effectively autonomous since then. Russia's
move last week was the first official recognition of the provinces'
self-proclaimed status. Previously only the de facto independent
republics of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan and Transdniestria in
Moldova had recognised the two breakaway Georgian regions in a quid
pro quo deal.
Now there are fears that these and other "frozen" post-USSR conflicts
could flare up in the wake of the Georgian crisis. There is particular
concern over the possibility of Russia intervening in Moldova and
the Ukraine. The latter's pro-Western president Viktor Yushchenko has
said his country is hostage in a war waged by Russia against former
Soviet states.
"We are in a situation which marks a clear end to the relative and
growing calm in and around Europe since the collapse of the Soviet
Union," the British Foreign Minister David Milliband said on BBC
radio last Thursday morning. He was speaking after a trip to Ukraine,
seen as a provocation in Russia, where he assured Ukraine - whose
Eastern regions are largely pro-Russian - of the UK's commitment to
supporting its democratic choices.
There has been talk of EU sanctions against Russia. Russian PM
Vladimir Putin warned that sanctions would hurt the EU more than they
hurt Russia. Although French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said
sanctions were still on the cards, such measures were looking less
likely by the end of the week. French President Nicolas Sarkozy -
whose country currently holds the rotating EU presidency - last week
called an emergency summit for 1 September in order to formulate a
unified EU position on the Georgian question.
Putin added to the frosty atmosphere last Thursday by accusing the
US of deliberately stirring up trouble in Georgia. In a defiant
interview with CNN last Thursday, the former president said that the
US had men on the ground in Georgia and encouraged the country to
attack South Ossetia for the benefit of one of the US presidential
candidates. Whitehouse spokesperson Dana Perino promptly dismissed
Putin's claims as "irrational".
Hungary balances
Hungary last Wednesday joined the chorus of voices condemning
Russia's recognition of the independence of the breakaway Georgian
provinces. Foreign Minister Kinga Göncz said in a statement: "Hungary
regrets Russia's recognition of the independence of South Ossetia
and Abkhazia. The decision will not support stability in the region."
Göncz stressed that Hungary has from the start been committed to the
territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Caucasian republic. She
added that, despite the political tension, economic relations between
her country and Russia - which supplies over 80% of Hungary's natural
gas - remain sound.
Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány has in recent years been
criticised in EU circles for his perceived pro-Russian stance. In
particular he favoured Russia's Blue Stream oil pipeline over the
EU's rival Nabucco project. It is hoped that the Nabucco pipeline
would increase energy security by lessening dependence on the EU's
increasingly assertive eastern neighbour, by instead sourcing oil
from central Asia, the Caucasus or Iran.
--Boundary_(ID_l38ZQ0u8HO4F3oyLTyIlmg)--