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  • Georgia's Conflict And Iran And Turkey

    GEORGIA'S CONFLICT AND IRAN AND TURKEY
    By Rayyan al-Shawaf

    THE DAILY STAR
    Tuesday, September 09, 2008

    Although the Russo-Georgian military clash is over, its ramifications
    will be felt for a long time, especially as the political crisis
    between the two countries remains unresolved. In the Middle East,
    two major countries, Turkey and Iran, have been directly affected
    by the recent events. While Turkey stands to lose should Russia and
    Georgia fail to resolve their differences, Iran stands to win.

    An embattled Russia cornered by the West would never forgive NATO
    member Turkey; as a result, Russian-Turkish relations would plummet and
    Russia might even stop providing Turkey with natural gas. In casting
    about for allies, Russia would find a similarly isolated Iran to be
    amenable to giving the two countries' ties a strategic dimension,
    but only in return for political and economic concessions. Thus, the
    Russo-Georgian crisis may ironically change the balance of power in
    the Middle East.

    Both Russia and Iran have become increasingly alarmed with the
    West's attempts to bypass them in the quest for oil. Moscow wanted the
    Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, the world's second longest, to pass
    through Russia. That way, Russia would not only benefit financially,
    but also be able to exert some control over the supply of oil to
    the West, much as it does with the longest pipeline in the world,
    the Druzhba, which flows from southeast Russia to Europe. During
    its invasion of Georgia, Russia pointedly demonstrated that it can
    threaten the BTC pipeline, and that, as Russian President Dmitry
    Medvedev recently put it, "Russia is a nation to be reckoned with."

    Meanwhile, Iran, most of whose oil flows to Asia, has long sought to
    lay oil pipelines to the West, a desire more often than not frustrated
    by Western sanctions. By supporting Russia in its current confrontation
    with the West, Tehran may have secured a future economic and political
    payoff. This would be especially true should Iran have extracted from
    Russia a commitment to devise a common oil strategy vis-a-vis the West.

    However, even without this possibility, there are several indicators
    of the benefits that may accrue to Iran as a result of its pro-Russian
    policy. For example, Iranian (and Syrian) requests for a sophisticated
    missile defense system are being taken seriously in Moscow, much to
    the chagrin of the United States and Israel. When one remembers that
    Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant - built with Russian support - is slated
    to begin operation in 2009, it becomes apparent that Iran may be on the
    verge of radically enhancing its regional and international position.

    Even as Iran makes a bid for regional power status, Turkey has
    almost by accident emerged as the country that could hold the key to
    solving the Russo-Georgian crisis. Indeed, Turkey is exceptionally
    well-positioned to be mediator, a role it is already playing with some
    success between Syria and Israel, and to a lesser extent between
    Iran and the West. Russia is Turkey's biggest trading partner,
    and Turkey is dependant on Russian natural gas. At the same time,
    Turkey maintains strong economic and military ties with Georgia,
    which aspires to join NATO, of which Turkey is a strategic member.

    Turkey cannot afford to allow its relations with Russia to deteriorate
    - they have already been strained by the passage of American ships
    through the Bosphorus on their way to the Georgian port of Batumi -
    but neither can it shun the West's call for supporting Georgia. As
    a result, mediating the current conflict is not only a role that
    could propel Turkey into the limelight as a major regional player,
    but also a necessity insofar as Turkish politico-economic imperatives
    are concerned.

    If Turkey meets the challenge, there may even be added benefits.

    Turkish-Armenian relations could thaw, which would be of great
    significance to the oil and natural gas industry. The most direct
    overland route for an oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea to Turkey
    would begin in Azerbaijan and pass through Armenia. Yet no such
    pipeline has ever been constructed due to political instability:
    Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a war over Nagorno-Karabakh and remain
    at loggerheads, while Turkey's border with Armenia has been closed
    since 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan.

    With the Russo-Georgian clash illustrating the vulnerability of
    Georgia, through which the BTC pipeline passes, Armenia's importance
    has increased.

    Turkish President Abdullah Gul, on a groundbreaking visit to Yerevan
    last week for a Turkish-Armenian soccer match, spoke about the need for
    the countries of the Caucasus to work together to enhance stability. To
    that end, Turkey has called for the creation of a regional cooperation
    group comprising Turkey, Russia, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    The trajectory of the Russo-Georgian conflict during the next few
    months could be critical in determining what happens in the Middle
    East. If mediation succeeds in bringing the two sides together and
    defusing the crisis, Russia will not find it necessary to turn to
    Iran. If the successful mediation is Turkish, then Turkey will have
    demonstrated a unique ability to bring stability to the Caucasus,
    broker Syrian-Israeli peace talks, and mediate between Iran and
    the West.

    On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, Russia's ties to the West
    and Turkey will inevitably deteriorate. Facing diplomatic isolation
    and possibly even sanctions, Russia may forge a strategic alliance
    with Iran, thereby drastically increasing Iranian influence in the
    Middle East.

    Is a freelance writer and reviewer based in Beirut. He wrote this
    commentary for THE DAILY STAR.
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