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    POST-WAR THEATER OF OPERATIONS
    Professor Aleksei Malashenko (Supreme School of Economics)

    WPS Agency
    What the Papers Say Weekly Review (Russia)
    September 8, 2008 Monday
    Russia

    THE FUTURE OF THE FORMERLY NON-RECOGNIZED REPUBLICS: OPTIONS; The
    Kremlin should start thinking about to do with South Ossetia and
    Abkhazia now.

    Recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia inevitably raises
    the following question: what next? What is to be done about or with
    the formerly non-recognized republics now?

    Our congratulations to South Ossetia and Abkhazia on the long-awaited
    recognition. While they are celebrating, however, Moscow should
    already start thinking about the future. Shall the Kremlin leave them
    eternally independent and recognized by Russia, HAMAS, perhaps Belarus,
    and a couple of other analogous regimes or accept them in the Russian
    Federation at some later date?

    Variant A: Independence

    Independence for South Ossetia is made impossible by its size (much
    smaller than the Moscow region, it has only between 70,000 and 100,000
    in terms of population), irreducible economic inadequacy, and, finally,
    by the inevitable pull of North Ossetia.

    For Abkhazia on the other hand, official independence may evolve
    into something wholly different - at least in theory. Some idealists
    in it even now believe that bona fide independence may bring bona
    fide dividends one fine day - something like a free economic zone,
    tourists and capitals from abroad, and so on.

    As for the Caucasus in general, it cannot expect anything good to stem
    from sovereignty of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This sovereignty sets a
    precedent. There is Chechnya nearby. The chain of questions to be asked
    is quite predictable: all right for Kosovo but not for Abkhazia? All
    right for Abkhazia but not for Chechnya? This mentality is too deeply
    rooted in some politicians in the Caucasus, even though they themselves
    never miss a chance to reassure Moscow of their loyalty.

    Borders were violated. Georgian borders, this time. There is, however,
    a similar chain of questions that may be applied. If the Georgian
    borders were revised, why not revise some others as well? Say, the
    borders between Chechnya and Ingushetia (the Malgobek district),
    Ossetia and Ingushetia (Prigorodny), borders between Dagestan,
    Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachaevo-Cherkessia... They are internal borders,
    but regional mentality makes these moot issues a permanent source
    of conflicts.

    Variant B: Membership in the Russian Federation

    Certain problems are encountered with it. De facto, the self-proclaimed
    republics are already in Russia. South Ossetia is being restored with
    Russian tax-payers' money. Russian businesses run whatever there is
    to be run in Abkhazia - land itself, resorts, spas, beaches... In a
    word, both territories are part of Russia economically and from the
    standpoint of citizenship. What if their membership is formalized,
    though?

    Appearance of the two new subjects will alter the situation in the
    Caucasus. Moreover, these changes are impossible to predict - and
    therefore to draw contingency plans for.

    For example, it will change the "format" of the dispute between
    the Ingushetians and Ossetians over the Prigorodny district. It
    will be no longer North Ossetia as one of the concerned parties,
    it will be larger Ossetia. South Ossetians' short tempers meanwhile
    are recognized everywhere, even in North Ossetia itself. Ingushetia
    is unlikely to be overly happy.

    Deterioration of the Ossetian-Ingushetian discord may result in a
    situation where the Ingushetians facing Christian Ossetians will
    start getting help from nearby Moslem enclaves in the Russian
    Federation. Moreover, this help will be both official and informal.

    The new Federation subjects are not going to be prosperous at all (that
    much is clear). It is their own internal problems that they will bring
    to Russia and that means ethnic clashes and clannish discord. Small
    as it is, Abkhazia is a cauldron of Abkhazian, Russian, and Armenian
    ethnic groups. Fighting for sovereignty, they have been standing by
    each other so far. Absence of a common enemy, however, will rekindle
    the existing conflicts. The authorities will keep the problem under a
    lid at first, but it cannot be contained there for long. The Southern
    Federal Region in the meantime has problems even without anything new
    added to its plate. It won't take Abkhazia long to learn the difference
    between the title of "freedom fighters" and Federation subjects.

    There are the Olympic Games in Sochi to be considered as well. Should
    the International Olympic Committee decide to deprive Russia of the
    right to host the Winter Olympics in 2014, it will become a bona fide
    tragedy for all of the Southern Federal Region.

    Can Russia expect any benefits from absorption of South Ossetia and
    Abkhazia? What South Ossetia is needed for is clear. Russia needs it
    as a site for a fully-fledged military base against NATO approaching
    its southern borders. As for Abkhazia, it will probably regain its
    status of the Russian spa region (unless clannish wars and strife
    make the Black Sea coast in Abkhazia too "hot" a spot even for
    Russian tourists).

    There is of course a roundabout way - South Ossetia and Abkhazia may
    join the Russian-Belarussian union... but that is too fantastic an
    option to ponder. The Kremlin will never be able to up gas prices for
    Belarus in this case. On the other hand, it will deprive the Western
    community of the chance to accuse Russia of annexation.

    Variant C: Back into Georgia

    That's a sheer impossibility. But what about conquest of the wayward
    territories by sheer strength of arms? Say, with help from NATO? Even
    that is unlikely.

    Everyone in the region appears to be mesmerized by Russia's military
    feat. By its unprecedented resolve and determination to take its
    chances. Had the Kremlin failed to move in, all of the Caucasus would
    have branded it as a weakling never to be taken seriously again. And
    yet, battles are over. Time to go back to life in peace... but how can
    it be accomplished if this "time of peace" never ends in Ingushetia,
    Chechnya, or Dagestan?
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