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  • Georgian Opposition Eyes Presidency

    http://www.kommersant.com/p1023937/r_538/Russia_Ge orgia_South_Ossetia_conflict/

    Sep. 11, 2008

    Georgian Opposition Eyes Presidency

    // After the war in South Ossetia

    The Georgian Defense Ministry yesterday denied information published
    in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper that ministry
    representatives spoke against the actions of Georgian President
    Mikheil Saakashvili in South Ossetia at a recent meeting at NATO
    headquarters in Brussels. Nonetheless, that information bolstered the
    spirits of the Georgian opposition, which demanded Saakashvili's
    resignation. Kommersant decided to measure the depth of the internal
    division in Georgian society and the presidential prospects of
    opposition leaders.

    Schism

    According to the German newspaper, high-placed representatives of the
    Georgian armed forces told their colleagues at NATO that they "were
    against the military invasion of South Ossetia and tried to convince
    Saakashvili not to start a war," since they understood their
    "powerlessness in a confrontation with Russia." The same publication
    quotes diplomats in Brussels as saying that the statements were
    perceived as "attempts to shed the blame for Saakashvili's lost war."

    Those quotations, reprinted yesterday in the Georgian and Russian
    press, are evidence of a schism in the Georgian elite. Considering the
    recent shakeup in the Georgian military, that attitude was to be
    expected. Immediately after the end of the war in South Ossetia,
    Saakashvili dismissed commander of the National Guard David
    Aptsiauria, who was well respected within the military. Deputy chief
    of the unified staff Alexiy Osepaishvili was demoted for "poor
    organization of the movement of forces during the war." Infantry
    commander Mamuka Balakhdze was sent to Germany for retraining. The
    Defense Ministry made no secret of the fact that those change were
    only the beginning of a coming reform, leaving the military ripe for
    dissatisfaction.

    However, Georgian experts say, the information about the disloyalty of
    the military leaders is unlikely to be true. "Of course, in the army,
    as in society, there are many people who are dissatisfied with the
    outcome of the war," Merab Pachulia, director of the Gorbi
    sociological center, observed for Kommersant. "But the officers
    Saakashvili sent to Brussels would not dare to speak against him
    there." Another well-known political scientist, president of the
    Georgian Foundation for Strategic Studies Alexander Rondeli said that
    "The officers in Brussels talked only about how Georgia had no
    interest in that war, because everyone understood that it was
    senseless to go to war with Russia, but journalists interpreted that
    phrase the way they wanted to."

    The Georgian Defense Ministry called the information in the German
    newspaper "complete disinformation." Nana Intskirveli, head of the
    ministry press center, told Kommersant that "There were no
    consultations in Brussels in which our officers would have taken part.
    Moreover, not a single officer from the general staff has left the
    country recently."

    Waiting for the Winter

    By the time the Defense Ministry made its denial, the Georgian
    opposition had picked up on the disillusionment with the president.
    David Gamkrelidze, leader of the New Right Party, demanded
    Saakashvili's resignation and early parliamentary and presidential
    elections. "If Saakashvili remains president and commander in chief,"
    he said, "even more problems and catastrophes will arise for us. The
    citizens of Georgia should decide what has priority - the country or
    Saakashvili." Gamkrelidze laid the blame on the president for the fact
    that "prospects for Georgia's accession to NATO are now more distance
    because no one knows what borders to accept it with." Opposition Labor
    Party leader Shalva Natelashvili echoed similar ideas, saying that
    South Ossetia and Abkhazia were lost due to Saakashvili.

    If other parties support those leaders' demands, the massive protests
    that were seen almost all year in Georgia may begin again. "That is
    what is holding us back," Republican Party leader David Usupashvili
    told Kommersant. "We understand that such actions in a situation like
    the one Georgia is in today will harm the country and ordinary
    citizens. So we favor early parliamentary elections in the autumn of
    2009. There should be a change of government and a change of
    parliament. And, with new legislative and executive power, we should
    decide on the issue of the president's resignation. The demand for the
    president's resignation will not find much support in society today."

    Sociologist Pachulia agrees. "It is senseless to demand Saakashvili's
    resignation today. His approval rate is higher than before the war,"
    he said. "The clash with Russia, in the opinion of many citizens, was
    provoked by Russia itself."

    Nevertheless, the Georgian opposition has begun consultations
    overseas, which, many experts say, is evidence of a change coming in
    Georgian politics. In the last month, the leaders of the Labor,
    Republican and New Right Parties have all been to Europe or the United
    States. Former speaker of the parliament Nino Burjanadze also traveled
    to Washington, where she met with representatives of John McCain and
    Barack Obama. Experts say she is preparing for her own presidential
    campaign. Burjanadze admits the possibility of returning to politics.
    She has been cautiously speaking about forming her own party, which
    would happen closer to 2010, when the country prepares for elections.

    Experts say Burjanadze's discretion is explained by the fact that the
    U.S. has not decided whether it is satisfied with Saakashvili. "The
    statements of the Georgian opposition are only the beginning of the
    political fight in the country," said Pachulia. "And now everything
    depends on who the West stands behind. It is too early to say whether
    that will be Burjanadze or someone else." Rondeli added that "I don't
    think the replacement of Saakashvili is an issue right now. The
    opposition wants to think that, so it is going to the U.S. for
    inspection. Washington wants to keep Saakashvili. They understand that
    elections and a change of power would weaken the country more at a
    time when it has to be restored."

    Almost all experts agree that, if there is a change of government in
    Georgia, it will not take place earlier than the winter, after the
    U.S. elections, "when Saakashvili may receive an offer from Washington
    that he can't refuse." Until then, Georgian authorities have time and
    Western money to use for their political rehabilitation.

    Olga Allenova; Georgy Dvali, Tbilisi
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