Tweet
GUL'S VISITS TO YEREVAN, BAKU HARBINGERS OF NEW ERA?
Today's Zaman
Sept 12 2008
Turkey
President Abdullah Gul went on a one-day visit to Baku to remove doubts
in Azerbaijan his recent trip to Yerevan may have raised as well as
to inform Azerbaijani officials about what transpired in Armenia.
During his visit to Baku, Gul also spoke about the Caucasus Stability
and Cooperation Platform, recent developments in the region, the
existing situation and security of energy corridors and the question
of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Although some press outlets referred to Gul's visit as an attempt
to mend Turkey's relationship with Azerbaijan in light of the topics
discussed, it is also likely that the visit was aimed to serve as a
spark to Turkey taking on the role of mediator in the region. The
Turkish media were not provided with extensive information on
the content of Gul's talks with Armenian state officials, but his
meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan and Foreign Minister
Ali Babacan's Yerevan visit to speak with his Armenian counterpart,
Edward Nalbandian, suggest they focused on deeper issues.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk
Group and the group's member countries, namely, the United States,
France and Russia, fell short of expectations to find a peaceful and
negotiated resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Furthermore,
they tried to exclude Turkey from the process of looking for a
solution to the problem by rejecting proposals by Turkey to contribute
to the process. Undoubtedly, Armenia played a significant role in
this. However, the existing situation demonstrates that the OSCE Minsk
Group can no longer contribute to the solution of the crisis between
Armenia and Azerbaijan. For this reason, one may expect the dissolution
of the OSCE Minsk Group in the days ahead and its replacement with
a new mechanism to be generated within the framework of the Caucasus
Stability and Cooperation Platform.
It is well known that the deadlock over Nagorno-Karabakh highly
disturbs Azerbaijan, which has kept the military option on the
table. Azerbaijan is no longer like it was at the beginning of
the 1990s. It now has the military and economic power to take back
Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia is aware of this fact and the prospect of
Azerbaijan declaring war terrifies it. Azerbaijan may take such a
step at any time, especially after the brief war between Russia and
Georgia. There are also claims that Azerbaijan has taken initiatives
to do just that.
Armenians desire to open borders
Armenia has for long striven to open the border with Turkey. If
no strong objections come from Azerbaijan, border gates could be
opened. Certainly, recognizing the border should take place before
the border gates can be opened. In this regard, Turkey and Armenia
could agree on their borders in line with the articles of the Treaty of
Alexandropol (Gumru), signed in 1920, and the 1921 Treaty of Kars. This
would mean Armenia no longer seeing Turkey's eastern provinces as
"Western Armenia." It is necessary to note that Armenia has for long
been ready to take a step to this end.
During US Vice President Dick Cheney's visit to Azerbaijan as part
of a visit to the region on Sept. 3, 2008, a very interesting issue
came to the agenda. Cheney spoke with Azerbaijani President Ä°lham
Aliyev about the prospects of having the Nabucco pipeline run through
Armenia. The Cheney-Aliyev meeting took place in a chilly setting. As
soon as Cheney left Baku, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called
Baku to speak with Aliyev.
Having the Nabucco pipeline run through Armenia is actually something
the US has wanted for a long time; however, circumstances were not
mature. Now, a suitable environment has been created to achieve
this. Notably, after the war in Georgia, some suggested Georgia will
destabilize. Hence, apart from the US, which gives diplomatic support
to having the Nabucco pipeline go through Armenia, finance circles
that will allocate funds for this project have begun to prioritize
Armenia as an alternative to Georgia. The fact that Nabucco's route
will be shorter and financially more advantageous and that Armenia is
more stable compared to Georgia renders Armenia an attractive route
for pipelines in the new period. The prospects of Russia using the
energy issue as a trump card following the Russia-West dispute in the
aftermath of the Georgian war has urged the West to seek alternative
routes. In this regard, the chances for the Nabucco pipeline have
increased while the chances of the Russian-proposed South Stream
pipeline have diminished.
In this new geopolitical environment the West is trying to secure
Europe's energy security with the Nabucco project on the one hand while
on the other it wants this pipeline to turn into a peace line between
Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia by making it cross Armenia. The West
thereby calculates that it could save Armenia from Russian control
(even if only partially).
In the meantime, it is important to note that Energy and Natural
Resources Minister Hilmi Guler met with Aliyev and former Azerbaijani
Energy and Natural Resources Minister Natiq Aliyev when he went to
Baku. During this meeting, which took place before President Gul's
Yerevan visit, they discussed the supply of 8 billion cubic meters
of natural gas to Turkey from the phase two natural gas site in the
Shah Deniz region, which is expected to be launched in 2013.
Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform
Another item on the agenda at the meetings will be the Caucasus
Stability and Cooperation Platform. Despite the risks involved,
Turkey should be insistent over this proposal. Georgia and Russia
openly declared that they would support this project under some
conditions. Azerbaijan took a cautious approach towards the proposal
and appears to have remained cautious. On the other hand, it should
be noted that Russia, which underlined that it would not discuss this
proposal unless Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili is removed
from office, is now warm to the establishment of the platform, given
the changing conditions.
Apparently, instituting relations between Turkey and Armenia has
been a matter of discussion within diplomatic circles for a long
time but the right time and the right venue was sought. Therefore,
we could say that all these negotiations have just begun. Gul will
probably meet with US President George W. Bush as well as Sarksyan
during his visit to the US on Sept. 20. Moreover, a visit by Bush to
the region is scheduled to take place in November.
Negotiating the Nagorno-Karabakh issue
Another issue President Gul is expected to address is Nagorno-Karabakh,
which has remained unresolved since its breakout in 1988. In fact,
Yerevan is not expected to take any action or step in regard to
this issue. Azerbaijan offered it the status of a loose federation
and autonomy to this breakaway republic, but Armenians rejected the
proposal. This could be explained by the presence of eagerness to
have an independent state because Azerbaijan has nothing else to offer.
Armenia's major policy regarding Nagorno-Karabakh entails that the
issue should not be tied to Armenian-Turkish relations, but that it
should be considered separately. Former Armenian President Robert
Kocharyan made an explicit offer on this matter. In short, Kocharyan
held that Turkish-Armenian relations should not be dependent on the
interests of third countries. At the current point, Azerbaijani
interests have been taken out of the context of Turkish-Armenian
relations because Armenia has no intention to compromise the
independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian Prime Minister Tigran
Sargsyan, who attended the ceremony held to observe the 17th
anniversary of the so-called independence of Nagorno-Karabakh,
noted in his speech that they would not waver from the independence
of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Considering that Azerbaijan will not take any action in relation
to the issues outlined above unless progress is made in regards
to Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia may need to take some steps on this
matter. Armenia may make a gesture by withdrawing its troops from
occupied territories with the exception of Nagorno-Karabakh. It
had occupied these areas in an effort to have a strong hand during
negotiations in the first place. Armenian authorities may take action
by declaring that they have given up on these lands. Armenians,
however, will not withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh. It should be noted
that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is as sensitive a problem for Armenians
as it is for Azerbaijan. However, agreeing to hold negotiations with
Armenian authorities, open the borders and the existing railway line
and attempt to redesign the Nabucco project to include this line
simply because it has withdrawn from a few settlements will confirm
that Nagorno-Karabakh has been lost for good; therefore, forcing
Azerbaijan to proceed with such an option will create irreparable
problems. In such a case, current and future Azerbaijani generations
will hold Turkey responsible for this.
Regardless of what is discussed, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is
the most fundamental one in relations between Turkey-Armenia and
Azerbaijan. Without making any progress on this issue, no further
step could be ever taken vis-a-vis other bilateral issues. Turkey
has decided to serve as a mediator on this matter. For this reason,
the main issue in Gul's visit to Baku will be the Nagorno-Karabakh
problem and Armenia's new offer. In a report I authored based on
my observations during a visit to Armenia in 2004, I noted that
Armenian President Sarksyan, who was the defense minister at the
time, would most likely become president after the end of Kocharyan's
term in office, adding that he would make some gestures during his
office given that he was a businessman. Hopefully, Sarksyan takes new
steps. Otherwise, bilateral relations between Turkey and Armenia may
deteriorate further.
*Sinan Ogan is head of the Ankara-based International Relations and
Strategic Analysis Center (TURKSAM).
--Boundary_(ID_Ee9HNA1OVpAZjO/lRHnxEA) --
Today's Zaman
Sept 12 2008
Turkey
President Abdullah Gul went on a one-day visit to Baku to remove doubts
in Azerbaijan his recent trip to Yerevan may have raised as well as
to inform Azerbaijani officials about what transpired in Armenia.
During his visit to Baku, Gul also spoke about the Caucasus Stability
and Cooperation Platform, recent developments in the region, the
existing situation and security of energy corridors and the question
of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Although some press outlets referred to Gul's visit as an attempt
to mend Turkey's relationship with Azerbaijan in light of the topics
discussed, it is also likely that the visit was aimed to serve as a
spark to Turkey taking on the role of mediator in the region. The
Turkish media were not provided with extensive information on
the content of Gul's talks with Armenian state officials, but his
meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan and Foreign Minister
Ali Babacan's Yerevan visit to speak with his Armenian counterpart,
Edward Nalbandian, suggest they focused on deeper issues.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk
Group and the group's member countries, namely, the United States,
France and Russia, fell short of expectations to find a peaceful and
negotiated resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Furthermore,
they tried to exclude Turkey from the process of looking for a
solution to the problem by rejecting proposals by Turkey to contribute
to the process. Undoubtedly, Armenia played a significant role in
this. However, the existing situation demonstrates that the OSCE Minsk
Group can no longer contribute to the solution of the crisis between
Armenia and Azerbaijan. For this reason, one may expect the dissolution
of the OSCE Minsk Group in the days ahead and its replacement with
a new mechanism to be generated within the framework of the Caucasus
Stability and Cooperation Platform.
It is well known that the deadlock over Nagorno-Karabakh highly
disturbs Azerbaijan, which has kept the military option on the
table. Azerbaijan is no longer like it was at the beginning of
the 1990s. It now has the military and economic power to take back
Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia is aware of this fact and the prospect of
Azerbaijan declaring war terrifies it. Azerbaijan may take such a
step at any time, especially after the brief war between Russia and
Georgia. There are also claims that Azerbaijan has taken initiatives
to do just that.
Armenians desire to open borders
Armenia has for long striven to open the border with Turkey. If
no strong objections come from Azerbaijan, border gates could be
opened. Certainly, recognizing the border should take place before
the border gates can be opened. In this regard, Turkey and Armenia
could agree on their borders in line with the articles of the Treaty of
Alexandropol (Gumru), signed in 1920, and the 1921 Treaty of Kars. This
would mean Armenia no longer seeing Turkey's eastern provinces as
"Western Armenia." It is necessary to note that Armenia has for long
been ready to take a step to this end.
During US Vice President Dick Cheney's visit to Azerbaijan as part
of a visit to the region on Sept. 3, 2008, a very interesting issue
came to the agenda. Cheney spoke with Azerbaijani President Ä°lham
Aliyev about the prospects of having the Nabucco pipeline run through
Armenia. The Cheney-Aliyev meeting took place in a chilly setting. As
soon as Cheney left Baku, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called
Baku to speak with Aliyev.
Having the Nabucco pipeline run through Armenia is actually something
the US has wanted for a long time; however, circumstances were not
mature. Now, a suitable environment has been created to achieve
this. Notably, after the war in Georgia, some suggested Georgia will
destabilize. Hence, apart from the US, which gives diplomatic support
to having the Nabucco pipeline go through Armenia, finance circles
that will allocate funds for this project have begun to prioritize
Armenia as an alternative to Georgia. The fact that Nabucco's route
will be shorter and financially more advantageous and that Armenia is
more stable compared to Georgia renders Armenia an attractive route
for pipelines in the new period. The prospects of Russia using the
energy issue as a trump card following the Russia-West dispute in the
aftermath of the Georgian war has urged the West to seek alternative
routes. In this regard, the chances for the Nabucco pipeline have
increased while the chances of the Russian-proposed South Stream
pipeline have diminished.
In this new geopolitical environment the West is trying to secure
Europe's energy security with the Nabucco project on the one hand while
on the other it wants this pipeline to turn into a peace line between
Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia by making it cross Armenia. The West
thereby calculates that it could save Armenia from Russian control
(even if only partially).
In the meantime, it is important to note that Energy and Natural
Resources Minister Hilmi Guler met with Aliyev and former Azerbaijani
Energy and Natural Resources Minister Natiq Aliyev when he went to
Baku. During this meeting, which took place before President Gul's
Yerevan visit, they discussed the supply of 8 billion cubic meters
of natural gas to Turkey from the phase two natural gas site in the
Shah Deniz region, which is expected to be launched in 2013.
Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform
Another item on the agenda at the meetings will be the Caucasus
Stability and Cooperation Platform. Despite the risks involved,
Turkey should be insistent over this proposal. Georgia and Russia
openly declared that they would support this project under some
conditions. Azerbaijan took a cautious approach towards the proposal
and appears to have remained cautious. On the other hand, it should
be noted that Russia, which underlined that it would not discuss this
proposal unless Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili is removed
from office, is now warm to the establishment of the platform, given
the changing conditions.
Apparently, instituting relations between Turkey and Armenia has
been a matter of discussion within diplomatic circles for a long
time but the right time and the right venue was sought. Therefore,
we could say that all these negotiations have just begun. Gul will
probably meet with US President George W. Bush as well as Sarksyan
during his visit to the US on Sept. 20. Moreover, a visit by Bush to
the region is scheduled to take place in November.
Negotiating the Nagorno-Karabakh issue
Another issue President Gul is expected to address is Nagorno-Karabakh,
which has remained unresolved since its breakout in 1988. In fact,
Yerevan is not expected to take any action or step in regard to
this issue. Azerbaijan offered it the status of a loose federation
and autonomy to this breakaway republic, but Armenians rejected the
proposal. This could be explained by the presence of eagerness to
have an independent state because Azerbaijan has nothing else to offer.
Armenia's major policy regarding Nagorno-Karabakh entails that the
issue should not be tied to Armenian-Turkish relations, but that it
should be considered separately. Former Armenian President Robert
Kocharyan made an explicit offer on this matter. In short, Kocharyan
held that Turkish-Armenian relations should not be dependent on the
interests of third countries. At the current point, Azerbaijani
interests have been taken out of the context of Turkish-Armenian
relations because Armenia has no intention to compromise the
independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian Prime Minister Tigran
Sargsyan, who attended the ceremony held to observe the 17th
anniversary of the so-called independence of Nagorno-Karabakh,
noted in his speech that they would not waver from the independence
of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Considering that Azerbaijan will not take any action in relation
to the issues outlined above unless progress is made in regards
to Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia may need to take some steps on this
matter. Armenia may make a gesture by withdrawing its troops from
occupied territories with the exception of Nagorno-Karabakh. It
had occupied these areas in an effort to have a strong hand during
negotiations in the first place. Armenian authorities may take action
by declaring that they have given up on these lands. Armenians,
however, will not withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh. It should be noted
that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is as sensitive a problem for Armenians
as it is for Azerbaijan. However, agreeing to hold negotiations with
Armenian authorities, open the borders and the existing railway line
and attempt to redesign the Nabucco project to include this line
simply because it has withdrawn from a few settlements will confirm
that Nagorno-Karabakh has been lost for good; therefore, forcing
Azerbaijan to proceed with such an option will create irreparable
problems. In such a case, current and future Azerbaijani generations
will hold Turkey responsible for this.
Regardless of what is discussed, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is
the most fundamental one in relations between Turkey-Armenia and
Azerbaijan. Without making any progress on this issue, no further
step could be ever taken vis-a-vis other bilateral issues. Turkey
has decided to serve as a mediator on this matter. For this reason,
the main issue in Gul's visit to Baku will be the Nagorno-Karabakh
problem and Armenia's new offer. In a report I authored based on
my observations during a visit to Armenia in 2004, I noted that
Armenian President Sarksyan, who was the defense minister at the
time, would most likely become president after the end of Kocharyan's
term in office, adding that he would make some gestures during his
office given that he was a businessman. Hopefully, Sarksyan takes new
steps. Otherwise, bilateral relations between Turkey and Armenia may
deteriorate further.
*Sinan Ogan is head of the Ankara-based International Relations and
Strategic Analysis Center (TURKSAM).
--Boundary_(ID_Ee9HNA1OVpAZjO/lRHnxEA) --