Tweet
TURKEY'S VISION FOR THE CAUCASUS
PoliGazette
September 24, 2008 @ 9:21 pm CEST
Netherlands
Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan explained in an article for
the International Herald Tribune what he and his fellow members of
the Erdogan administration want to do about the situation in the
caucus. The plan is bold, innovative, and on the main positive,
but there are some serious 'buts' Turkey should keep in mind before
putting its plan into action.
The basics of the plan are as follows: Turkey will become an important
regional player. It will establish a good relationship with all
countries in the region. This includes Armenia and Russia.
In its role as 'friend of all,' Turkey will encourage trust and
understanding among the other countries in the region. This includes
between Georgia and Russia and between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Lastly, an organization will be created whose goal it is to bring
stability to the region and solve conflicts before they can run out
of hand. This organization will be called the Caucasus Stability and
Cooperation Platform (CSCP).
Babacan explains that President Gul visited Armenia and Azerbaijan
recently for the purposes described above. "President Abdullah Gul
visited Yerevan on Sept. 6 to watch the World Cup qualifier match
between the Turkish and Armenian soccer teams. This was an historic
first step to break the barriers that have prevented our two nations
from getting closer to each other," he wrote.
Adding: "During the visit to Yerevan, the Armenian and Turkish
presidents extensively discussed the security situation in the
Caucasus, the prospects for the normalization of Turkish-Armenian
relations and the ways and means to achieve such normalization in
the nearest future."
"Third, as the process of normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations
moves ahead, we must not spare our efforts to find a resolution of
the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. These two processes have a mutually
reinforcing character - any positive development on one would
significantly have a stimulating effect on the other," he went on
to write.
"Gul, after his visit to Yerevan, traveled to Baku on Sept. 10
to inquire whether Turkey could facilitate the resolution of
Nagorno-Karabakh problem. We observe the commitment in Baku, as well
as in Yerevan, to bring a lasting solution to the conflict between
Azerbaijan and Armenia. In this context, it is necessary once more to
underline the importance of a constructive and comprehensive approach
to resolving the problems in the Caucasus region."
And this is where the problems set in:
1. Armenia has waged an anti-Turkey campaign for years. The country's
leadership itself and the Diaspora have nearly destroyed Turkey's
image. Restoring relations with this country, then, may actually
reward them for their hatred towards all things Turkey
2. Such a move may be interpreted by some as an admission that Turkey
has historically been wrong, and Armenia right. They will then demand
that Turkey will give in even more
3. The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is, most likely,
unresolvable. At least for the time being. The propaganda in both
countries about Ngoro-Karabagh is of such nature that it's difficult if
not impossible to imagine that they'll come to a compromise, or even a
mild understanding. If Turkey, then, tries to broker a deal, and does
so publicly, between the two nations, it may very well lose credibility
4. Turkey will not be considered an objective broker by most
Armenians. It's much like the U.S. trying to broker a deal between
Israelis and Palestinians. To the latter, the U.S. is either a puppet
or a master of the former. As such, it is very conceivable that every
suggestion Turkey makes will be dismissed out of hand
5. As for the situation between Russia and Georgia and other countries
in the region: In the end, Russia will do what it considers in its own
interest. Whether Turkey and the other countries in the region agree
is of little to no concern to Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev. If
one agrees with this reasoning, one cannot but wonder what the use
of an organization, as proposed by Turkey, is
6. Won't this organization collide with other organizations?
As said, I tend to support any initiative that would result in Turkey
playing a bigger role in the region, but the Turkish government should
keep in mind that its plan is not without weaknesses. These issues
should be talked about.
PoliGazette
September 24, 2008 @ 9:21 pm CEST
Netherlands
Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan explained in an article for
the International Herald Tribune what he and his fellow members of
the Erdogan administration want to do about the situation in the
caucus. The plan is bold, innovative, and on the main positive,
but there are some serious 'buts' Turkey should keep in mind before
putting its plan into action.
The basics of the plan are as follows: Turkey will become an important
regional player. It will establish a good relationship with all
countries in the region. This includes Armenia and Russia.
In its role as 'friend of all,' Turkey will encourage trust and
understanding among the other countries in the region. This includes
between Georgia and Russia and between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Lastly, an organization will be created whose goal it is to bring
stability to the region and solve conflicts before they can run out
of hand. This organization will be called the Caucasus Stability and
Cooperation Platform (CSCP).
Babacan explains that President Gul visited Armenia and Azerbaijan
recently for the purposes described above. "President Abdullah Gul
visited Yerevan on Sept. 6 to watch the World Cup qualifier match
between the Turkish and Armenian soccer teams. This was an historic
first step to break the barriers that have prevented our two nations
from getting closer to each other," he wrote.
Adding: "During the visit to Yerevan, the Armenian and Turkish
presidents extensively discussed the security situation in the
Caucasus, the prospects for the normalization of Turkish-Armenian
relations and the ways and means to achieve such normalization in
the nearest future."
"Third, as the process of normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations
moves ahead, we must not spare our efforts to find a resolution of
the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. These two processes have a mutually
reinforcing character - any positive development on one would
significantly have a stimulating effect on the other," he went on
to write.
"Gul, after his visit to Yerevan, traveled to Baku on Sept. 10
to inquire whether Turkey could facilitate the resolution of
Nagorno-Karabakh problem. We observe the commitment in Baku, as well
as in Yerevan, to bring a lasting solution to the conflict between
Azerbaijan and Armenia. In this context, it is necessary once more to
underline the importance of a constructive and comprehensive approach
to resolving the problems in the Caucasus region."
And this is where the problems set in:
1. Armenia has waged an anti-Turkey campaign for years. The country's
leadership itself and the Diaspora have nearly destroyed Turkey's
image. Restoring relations with this country, then, may actually
reward them for their hatred towards all things Turkey
2. Such a move may be interpreted by some as an admission that Turkey
has historically been wrong, and Armenia right. They will then demand
that Turkey will give in even more
3. The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is, most likely,
unresolvable. At least for the time being. The propaganda in both
countries about Ngoro-Karabagh is of such nature that it's difficult if
not impossible to imagine that they'll come to a compromise, or even a
mild understanding. If Turkey, then, tries to broker a deal, and does
so publicly, between the two nations, it may very well lose credibility
4. Turkey will not be considered an objective broker by most
Armenians. It's much like the U.S. trying to broker a deal between
Israelis and Palestinians. To the latter, the U.S. is either a puppet
or a master of the former. As such, it is very conceivable that every
suggestion Turkey makes will be dismissed out of hand
5. As for the situation between Russia and Georgia and other countries
in the region: In the end, Russia will do what it considers in its own
interest. Whether Turkey and the other countries in the region agree
is of little to no concern to Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev. If
one agrees with this reasoning, one cannot but wonder what the use
of an organization, as proposed by Turkey, is
6. Won't this organization collide with other organizations?
As said, I tend to support any initiative that would result in Turkey
playing a bigger role in the region, but the Turkish government should
keep in mind that its plan is not without weaknesses. These issues
should be talked about.