Tweet
AZERI PUBLIC IN BREATHLESS EXPECTATION OF OUTCOME OF TURKISH-ARMENIAN DIALOGUE
Turan News Agency
March 24 2009
Azerbaijan
The Azerbaijani public in general, politicians and the media separately
are trying to second-guess the outcome of the Turkish-Armenian
dialogue, a piece produced by Azerbaijani think-tank group has
concluded. Against the background of opportune geopolitical situation,
the government of Erdogan set to take advantage of the situation
emerged in the Caucasus after the Russian-Georgian August war,
step up its role and subsequently settle down problems with Armenia
to clear obstacles along the way to the European Union, the article
said. Under the report, Turkey seems agreed to this move with Russia
although the initiative put forward previously by other leaders failed
as they were not backed by the key regional players. The following
is the text of analytical report by private Azerbaijani news agency
Turan on 24 March headlined "A proposal hard to reject"; subheadings
have been inserted editorially:
Turkey's geopolitical and diplomatic role has begun to grow in the
region since about the second half of last year which, in its turn,
became a reason for all-possible gossips.
Caucasus alliance
As is known, on 11 August 2008 following the Russian intervention in
Georgia, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan spoke about the possibility of
forming a Caucasus alliance. Two days later, he voiced this idea on a
visit to Moscow. And on 20 August Turkey proposed a Caucasus Stability
and Cooperation Platform (CSCP). As was stated, "first of all, the
platform has geopolitical grounds, pursues an aim of establishing
peace and security in the region, and secures economic cooperation
and energy security". The work on the realization of the CSCP allowed
Turkey to further step up "shuttle" diplomacy and political presence in
the region. Subsequently, there came a turn of a "football diplomacy"
when in defiance of the expectations, the Turkish president accepted
the invitation of the new Armenian president to watch a qualifying
game between the two countries' national football teams in Yerevan.
This meeting has given an impetus to the resumption of the active
Turkish-Armenian dialogue in the course of which the prospect of
settling many disputed problems, including the issue of opening the
borders between the two countries, are being discussed in earnest. To
say that those active and uncommon initiatives of Turkey were
interpreted ambiguously by the Azerbaijani public would mean nothing
to say. Thus, a part of the public believes that playing with Russia
and Armenia, the government of Erdogan is gradually distancing itself
from the West (the USA) by indirectly betraying Azerbaijan's interests.
Similar moods were heated up by some reports carried by the
Turkish media. Sabah newspaper controlled by the son-in-law of the
Turkish prime minister, reported on 13 March that as a result of
secret Armenian-Turkish talks an agreement was hammered out on the
establishment of diplomatic relations, appointment of ambassadors
and setting up a joint commission for the purpose of normalization of
mutual relations, the conduct of investigation into the 1915 events,
discussion of issues of territorial claims of Armenia to Turkey,
the opening of borders and beginning of trade relations.
Under the same report, information on this agreement would be made
public after 24 April. The similar information was also carried
by Star newspaper close to the government circles. The concern
of the Azerbaijani public is understandable though unreasonably
overstated. So in comment on the agitating reports of the Turkish
newspapers, the Turkish ambassador to Azerbaijan Hulusi Kilic said on
18 March that "statements on the opening of borders are heard only in
the media. Turkey's policy about Azerbaijan remains unchanged." Similar
statements were also made by other Turkish officials.
Nothing new in Erdogan's initiative
Feverish reactions of a series of our media outlets to the CSCP are
also surprising. The idea of CSCP initiated by Erdogan is not new. At
one time, the late former presidents of Georgia and Ichkeria, Zviad
Gamsakhurdia, and Dzhokhar Dudayev, initiated the idea of establishing
A Caucasus Home which would unite the Caucasus peoples.
In 1992, they even set up a confederation of the Caucasus peoples
where Georgia, Azerbaijan and a series of movements from the North
Caucasus joined. After several years, the next president of Chechnya,
Aslan Maskhadov, and another Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze
discussed the issue of establishing an organization on security
and cooperation in the Caucasus. Discussed was also the issue of
establishing a Caucasus parliament a structure to unite the South
Caucasus region and republics of the North Caucasus. In 1996 during a
visit of the Azerbaijani former president, Heydar Aliyev, to Georgia,
a Tbilisi declaration was signed where there was also talk on the
Caucasus Home under the South Caucasus.
On 15 January 2000 in Tbilisi [the former] Turkish President
Suleyman Demirel put forward a pact on stability in the South
Caucasus. However, as distinct from previous projects, the plan
of Demirel was geographically broad it enveloped not also the South
Caucasus but also the Black Sea basin with the exit to the Balkans and
should have been realized under the aegis of the OSCE. With similar
integration-related projects for the Caucasus in the various versions
came forward earlier the USA, Russia and the EU countries. In previous
years, this idea did not cause a surge of emotions and rejection in
our society. Apparently, at that time, no-one did believe in its quick
implementation. It looked definitely unpersuasive since other than
Azerbaijan and Georgia, all other countries of the region had very
fundamental contradictions between themselves. Nevertheless, after
the August 2008 events in the South Caucasus there emerged a certain
vacuum. On the one hand, by recognizing independence of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia, Moscow certainly weakened tangibly the position
of the USA. However, on the other hand, with these acts, it also
significantly complicated own claims to the role of a peace-keeper,
guarantor and arbiter. The "geopolitical breaches" that have emerged
in the region allowed Turkey to develop unprecedented activity which
technically met interests of both the West and Russia. Damaging own
image, Russia made attempts to acquire at least temporary allies in
confrontation with the West (the USA).
Moves designed to step up Turkey's role in Caucasus
Under the existing situation, such an ally for Russia could only
be Turkey. Being from "the western camp", at the same time, it has
certain "resentment" at own allies. Moreover, Turkey depends on
Russian gas supplies and has a solid goods turnover (34bn dollars)
with it. At the same time, Turkey with its activity could neutralize
undesirable for Russia geopolitical influence of other players on the
South Caucasus. Probably, all these were understood well in Ankara and
possibly exactly, these considerations made Erdogan to reanimate the
idea of integration into the South Caucasus. And it is not surprising
that Moscow supported this project within which there was not any
hint at other players apart from the South Caucasus, Turkey and Russia.
In a nutshell, the August proposal of Erdogan was not at all
spontaneous, it had own prehistory and evolved in the course of
development of events and it goes without saying has own aims. The most
important of them for Turkey is to reinforce its role in the region. It
is also clear that the task of the West in the South Caucasus is
to tear Armenia off Russia. It is obvious that the opening of the
Turkish-Armenian borders serves simultaneously the strengthening of
Turkey's role and reducing the level of confrontation in the region (by
significantly facilitating the realization of the West's plans). Such
a role of Turkey, to all appearances, is absolutely acceptable for
the West (the USA). To this testifies the fact that US Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton paid an official visit to Turkey on 7 March
during which she was received by the president, prime minister and
foreign minister of the country.
The media characterized this visit as a "repairing move" (relations
between Ankara and Washington were fairly spoiled by the Bush
administration). It is noteworthy that after Hillary Clinton, new US
President Barack Obama is planning to visit Turkey in April. Another
target of Turkey is to end once and for all the boring problem of
recognition of mythic "genocide" of Armenians in the Ottoman empire. It
should be acknowledged there has cropped up a serious argument for
Turkey: recognition of the genocide may once and for all spoil mutual
relations between Ankara and Washington and bring to a standstill for a
long time the process of normalization of relations with Yerevan. The
latter is one of the conditions for Turkey to be accepted to the
European Union and therefore, the establishment of friendly relations
with Armenia will actually remove a threat of recognizing the genocide.
The realization of all these tasks will undoubtedly lead to
reinforcement of Turkey's influence in the region and expand
its potential in the resolution of the existing conflicts in the
region. Exactly for this Turkey is currently doing everything in order
to reinforce its position in the South Caucasus. Yerevan also perceived
Erdogan's initiative positively. No doubt that this step is important
for the Armenian authorities from a point of view of possibility of
joining regional energy projects. Thereby, official Yerevan cuts the
ground from under pro-Western electorate of the country with former
president Levon Ter-Petrosyan and multiplies its possibilities for
political manoeuvring. During an official visit of Erdogan to Baku
on 20 August, President Ilham Aliyev also backed the initiative
of the Turkish side. Probably, the Azerbaijani leadership fairly
decided that if the aim of Moscow is to retain under its influence
the South Caucasus with the help of the conflicts, then the breaking
this monopoly and Turkey's involvement in the affairs of the region
opens for Baku more positive prospects.
Briefly, by initiating the CSCP and stepping up peace-keeping
activities in the region, Turkey, in essence has made a proposal,
from which it is hard for all countries to refuse. Time will show to
what extent this "proposal" meets Azerbaijan's interests.
Turan News Agency
March 24 2009
Azerbaijan
The Azerbaijani public in general, politicians and the media separately
are trying to second-guess the outcome of the Turkish-Armenian
dialogue, a piece produced by Azerbaijani think-tank group has
concluded. Against the background of opportune geopolitical situation,
the government of Erdogan set to take advantage of the situation
emerged in the Caucasus after the Russian-Georgian August war,
step up its role and subsequently settle down problems with Armenia
to clear obstacles along the way to the European Union, the article
said. Under the report, Turkey seems agreed to this move with Russia
although the initiative put forward previously by other leaders failed
as they were not backed by the key regional players. The following
is the text of analytical report by private Azerbaijani news agency
Turan on 24 March headlined "A proposal hard to reject"; subheadings
have been inserted editorially:
Turkey's geopolitical and diplomatic role has begun to grow in the
region since about the second half of last year which, in its turn,
became a reason for all-possible gossips.
Caucasus alliance
As is known, on 11 August 2008 following the Russian intervention in
Georgia, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan spoke about the possibility of
forming a Caucasus alliance. Two days later, he voiced this idea on a
visit to Moscow. And on 20 August Turkey proposed a Caucasus Stability
and Cooperation Platform (CSCP). As was stated, "first of all, the
platform has geopolitical grounds, pursues an aim of establishing
peace and security in the region, and secures economic cooperation
and energy security". The work on the realization of the CSCP allowed
Turkey to further step up "shuttle" diplomacy and political presence in
the region. Subsequently, there came a turn of a "football diplomacy"
when in defiance of the expectations, the Turkish president accepted
the invitation of the new Armenian president to watch a qualifying
game between the two countries' national football teams in Yerevan.
This meeting has given an impetus to the resumption of the active
Turkish-Armenian dialogue in the course of which the prospect of
settling many disputed problems, including the issue of opening the
borders between the two countries, are being discussed in earnest. To
say that those active and uncommon initiatives of Turkey were
interpreted ambiguously by the Azerbaijani public would mean nothing
to say. Thus, a part of the public believes that playing with Russia
and Armenia, the government of Erdogan is gradually distancing itself
from the West (the USA) by indirectly betraying Azerbaijan's interests.
Similar moods were heated up by some reports carried by the
Turkish media. Sabah newspaper controlled by the son-in-law of the
Turkish prime minister, reported on 13 March that as a result of
secret Armenian-Turkish talks an agreement was hammered out on the
establishment of diplomatic relations, appointment of ambassadors
and setting up a joint commission for the purpose of normalization of
mutual relations, the conduct of investigation into the 1915 events,
discussion of issues of territorial claims of Armenia to Turkey,
the opening of borders and beginning of trade relations.
Under the same report, information on this agreement would be made
public after 24 April. The similar information was also carried
by Star newspaper close to the government circles. The concern
of the Azerbaijani public is understandable though unreasonably
overstated. So in comment on the agitating reports of the Turkish
newspapers, the Turkish ambassador to Azerbaijan Hulusi Kilic said on
18 March that "statements on the opening of borders are heard only in
the media. Turkey's policy about Azerbaijan remains unchanged." Similar
statements were also made by other Turkish officials.
Nothing new in Erdogan's initiative
Feverish reactions of a series of our media outlets to the CSCP are
also surprising. The idea of CSCP initiated by Erdogan is not new. At
one time, the late former presidents of Georgia and Ichkeria, Zviad
Gamsakhurdia, and Dzhokhar Dudayev, initiated the idea of establishing
A Caucasus Home which would unite the Caucasus peoples.
In 1992, they even set up a confederation of the Caucasus peoples
where Georgia, Azerbaijan and a series of movements from the North
Caucasus joined. After several years, the next president of Chechnya,
Aslan Maskhadov, and another Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze
discussed the issue of establishing an organization on security
and cooperation in the Caucasus. Discussed was also the issue of
establishing a Caucasus parliament a structure to unite the South
Caucasus region and republics of the North Caucasus. In 1996 during a
visit of the Azerbaijani former president, Heydar Aliyev, to Georgia,
a Tbilisi declaration was signed where there was also talk on the
Caucasus Home under the South Caucasus.
On 15 January 2000 in Tbilisi [the former] Turkish President
Suleyman Demirel put forward a pact on stability in the South
Caucasus. However, as distinct from previous projects, the plan
of Demirel was geographically broad it enveloped not also the South
Caucasus but also the Black Sea basin with the exit to the Balkans and
should have been realized under the aegis of the OSCE. With similar
integration-related projects for the Caucasus in the various versions
came forward earlier the USA, Russia and the EU countries. In previous
years, this idea did not cause a surge of emotions and rejection in
our society. Apparently, at that time, no-one did believe in its quick
implementation. It looked definitely unpersuasive since other than
Azerbaijan and Georgia, all other countries of the region had very
fundamental contradictions between themselves. Nevertheless, after
the August 2008 events in the South Caucasus there emerged a certain
vacuum. On the one hand, by recognizing independence of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia, Moscow certainly weakened tangibly the position
of the USA. However, on the other hand, with these acts, it also
significantly complicated own claims to the role of a peace-keeper,
guarantor and arbiter. The "geopolitical breaches" that have emerged
in the region allowed Turkey to develop unprecedented activity which
technically met interests of both the West and Russia. Damaging own
image, Russia made attempts to acquire at least temporary allies in
confrontation with the West (the USA).
Moves designed to step up Turkey's role in Caucasus
Under the existing situation, such an ally for Russia could only
be Turkey. Being from "the western camp", at the same time, it has
certain "resentment" at own allies. Moreover, Turkey depends on
Russian gas supplies and has a solid goods turnover (34bn dollars)
with it. At the same time, Turkey with its activity could neutralize
undesirable for Russia geopolitical influence of other players on the
South Caucasus. Probably, all these were understood well in Ankara and
possibly exactly, these considerations made Erdogan to reanimate the
idea of integration into the South Caucasus. And it is not surprising
that Moscow supported this project within which there was not any
hint at other players apart from the South Caucasus, Turkey and Russia.
In a nutshell, the August proposal of Erdogan was not at all
spontaneous, it had own prehistory and evolved in the course of
development of events and it goes without saying has own aims. The most
important of them for Turkey is to reinforce its role in the region. It
is also clear that the task of the West in the South Caucasus is
to tear Armenia off Russia. It is obvious that the opening of the
Turkish-Armenian borders serves simultaneously the strengthening of
Turkey's role and reducing the level of confrontation in the region (by
significantly facilitating the realization of the West's plans). Such
a role of Turkey, to all appearances, is absolutely acceptable for
the West (the USA). To this testifies the fact that US Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton paid an official visit to Turkey on 7 March
during which she was received by the president, prime minister and
foreign minister of the country.
The media characterized this visit as a "repairing move" (relations
between Ankara and Washington were fairly spoiled by the Bush
administration). It is noteworthy that after Hillary Clinton, new US
President Barack Obama is planning to visit Turkey in April. Another
target of Turkey is to end once and for all the boring problem of
recognition of mythic "genocide" of Armenians in the Ottoman empire. It
should be acknowledged there has cropped up a serious argument for
Turkey: recognition of the genocide may once and for all spoil mutual
relations between Ankara and Washington and bring to a standstill for a
long time the process of normalization of relations with Yerevan. The
latter is one of the conditions for Turkey to be accepted to the
European Union and therefore, the establishment of friendly relations
with Armenia will actually remove a threat of recognizing the genocide.
The realization of all these tasks will undoubtedly lead to
reinforcement of Turkey's influence in the region and expand
its potential in the resolution of the existing conflicts in the
region. Exactly for this Turkey is currently doing everything in order
to reinforce its position in the South Caucasus. Yerevan also perceived
Erdogan's initiative positively. No doubt that this step is important
for the Armenian authorities from a point of view of possibility of
joining regional energy projects. Thereby, official Yerevan cuts the
ground from under pro-Western electorate of the country with former
president Levon Ter-Petrosyan and multiplies its possibilities for
political manoeuvring. During an official visit of Erdogan to Baku
on 20 August, President Ilham Aliyev also backed the initiative
of the Turkish side. Probably, the Azerbaijani leadership fairly
decided that if the aim of Moscow is to retain under its influence
the South Caucasus with the help of the conflicts, then the breaking
this monopoly and Turkey's involvement in the affairs of the region
opens for Baku more positive prospects.
Briefly, by initiating the CSCP and stepping up peace-keeping
activities in the region, Turkey, in essence has made a proposal,
from which it is hard for all countries to refuse. Time will show to
what extent this "proposal" meets Azerbaijan's interests.