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  • Speculations Mount About A Possible Armenia-Turkey Deal Anonymous So

    SPECULATIONS MOUNT ABOUT A POSSIBLE ARMENIA-TURKEY DEAL ANONYMOUS SOURCES CITED ON TIMING, SUBSTANCE ARMENIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER TO ATTEND ISTANBUL CONFERENCE
    by Emil Sanamyan

    www.reporter.am/go/article/2009-04-03-sp eculations-mount-about-a-possible-armenia-turkey-d eal
    Friday April 03, 2009

    Washington, - With President Barack Obama on his way to Turkey just
    weeks before Armenian Genocide commemoration day, and unprecedented
    high-level meetings between Armenia and Turkey, expectations for
    progress in relations between Armenia and Turkey are once again
    being fueled.

    Armenian officials contacted by the Armenian Reporter would not comment
    on whether an agreement with Turkey was imminent, but did confirm that
    Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian will attend the Istanbul conference,
    which Mr. Obama will address.

    Writing on April 1, the Wall Street Journal cited anonymous diplomatic
    sources as claiming that Armenia and Turkey "could soon announce a
    deal aimed at reopening their border and restoring relations" and that
    "the timing of the deal is being choreographed" with Mr. Obama's trip,
    the paper's Brussels and Istanbul correspondents reported.

    One of the Journal correspondents contacted by the Reporter would
    not reveal if any of the officials he spoke with were from Armenia.

    The outlines of the deal, as described by these anonymous sources would
    include "opening and fixing borders, restoring diplomatic relations
    and setting up commissions to look at disputes, including one on the
    tense history between the two nations."

    The latter issue - of a commission - has been one of the more
    controversial matters. In 2005, the Turkish government first proposed
    establishing a "commission of historians" allegedly to study the
    genocide. Seeing it as a ploy against genocide affirmation, President
    Robert Kocharian made a counteroffer suggesting a bilateral commission
    to look into all issues.

    President Serge Sargsian has taken a similar position.

    Another sticking point has been Turkey's preconditions related to
    the Karabakh conflict, but those appear to have been set aside for
    the moment.

    Long-held suspicions and mounting speculations

    With Turkish officials saying that a Congressional resolution about
    the Armenian Genocide would undermine progress in the normalization of
    relations between Turkey and Armenia, many longtime observers wonder
    whether the speculations are just intended to provide an excuse for
    President Obama to go back on his pledge to recognize the Armenian
    Genocide.

    Already, when asked about the issue, spokespersons for the White House
    have responded repeatedly that the administration's "focus is on how,
    moving forward, the United States can help Armenia and Turkey work
    together to come to terms with the past."

    Turkish media has speculated for months about an imminent breakthrough
    in relations between Armenia and Turkey, and Western media too
    have started speculating on the topic. Much of the fodder for such
    speculation has been provided by officials involved.

    Both Armenian and Turkish officials have said a breakthrough is close.

    Foreign Minister Nalbandian said last November in Istanbul that
    Armenia-Turkey normalization "could be done in a quick way, because
    I do not see any major obstacles."

    According to Turkey's Sabah newspaper, senior members of the Turkish
    parliament for the ruling party, visiting Washington last month,
    told their congressional counterparts not to move on the Armenian
    Genocide resolution, as an Armenia-Turkey deal was imminent.

    Other officials told the Armenian Reporter they believe some kind
    of a deal is likely, although one key Armenian official discounted
    newspaper reports.

    End-game, kind of

    Ten months ago, when the Armenian Reporter asked experts if they
    expected such a breakthrough, most were not optimistic.

    It was in the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal on July 9,
    2008, that President Sargsian first sought to convey his determination
    to normalize relations with Turkey. The initiative since then seems
    to have been boosted by the aftermath of the war in Georgia - which
    drew Russia and Turkey closer together - and the election of Barack
    Obama as U.S. president.

    President Abdullah Gul made his unprecedented half-day visit to
    Yerevan in September.

    And two months ago President Sargsian and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
    Erdogan met at Davos, Switzerland, shortly before Mr. Erdogan's stormy
    departure from a panel on which he appeared with the Israeli president.

    More talks have taken place between the two countries' foreign
    ministers and other officials.

    Expectations for a breakthrough had been raised before, perhaps
    artificially so. But the talks do appear to be reaching a kind of
    an end-game.

    Turkish leaders' overriding concern seems to be to get President Obama
    to continue the previous administrations' policies on the Armenian
    Genocide issue. The first crucial test of that will be President
    Obama's comments on the subject in Turkey and in the anticipated
    April 24 commemorative statement.

    >From the Turkish perspective, success in getting President Obama to
    sidestep the issue should be a good enough catalyst for a positive
    change in Turkey's policy toward Armenia. But this is true only if,
    as a senior Turkish official told this newspaper, it is in fact their
    intention "to have best relations with Armenia," and "good relations"
    with Armenians in the diaspora.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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