Tweet
ARMENIANOW.COM
Administration Address: 26 Parpetsi St., No 9
Phone: +(374 1) 532422
Email: [email protected]
Internet: www.armenianow.com
Technical Assistance: (For technical assistance please contact Babken
Juharyan)
Email: [email protected]
*************************** **************************************************
April 17, 2009
1. Not there yet: Armenian, Turkish FMs announce no immediate
deal after talks in Yerevan
2. Open Communications: Sargsyan-Ahmadinejad further Armenia-Iran
energy and transportation opportunities
3. Court Controversy: Conviction of Javakhk activist in Georgia
sparks protest among Armenians
4. Snowstorms: Eventfull weeks in region
5. Thoughts near Ararat: Geopolitics as seen by residents of a
borderline village
6. NKR in Focus: Border talk centers on peace settlement
7. Weathering the Storm: A commentary on the "hidden" and "heavy"
hands of Armenian economics
8. Time for Truth: Turkey reneged but President Obama must not
9. Welcome back: A new migration center will promote Armenian immigrants
10. Care and Concern: Caritas lights empty lives of elderly
11. Sport: Cup semifinals in soccer; Armenian weightlifting team
fifth in Europe
***************************************** ***********************************
1. NOT THERE YET: ARMENIAN, TURKISH FMS ANNOUNCE NO IMMEDIATE DEAL
AFTER TALKS IN YEREVAN
By Aris Ghazinyan
ArmeniaNow reporter
The foreign ministers of Armenia and Turkey announced no agreement
following a meeting in Yerevan on the sidelines of a regional forum
despite speculations that a formal bilateral document could be signed
between the two estranged nations already in mid-April.
Nor did Edward Nalbandian and Ali Babacan make any sensational
statements on April 16 proving wrong optimistic views that
Armenian-Turkish normalization and opening of the border were anywhere
near in sight.
Nalbandian said instead that "today there are no intentions to sign
any documents concerning the settlement of Armenian-Turkish
relations."
Babacan had come to Armenia to attend the 20th session of the Council
of Foreign Ministers of Black Sea Economic Cooperation, a 12-member
regional organization that also includes Azerbaijan and in which
Armenia held the rotating chairmanship until the latest meeting.
He, however, was not expected to deliver anything fundamentally new in
Yerevan, since all major statements had been made before the visit.
Days before Babacan's Yerevan visit, Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed his country's position - "signing any
agreement aimed at settling bilateral relations is impossible before a
resolution of the Karabakh problem."
On the threshold of the summit in Yerevan, Turkish President Abdullah
Gul made a statement as well also linking the issue of opening the
border with the Nagorno Karabakh problem. He, in particular, pointed
out that "the Karabakh issue between Armenia and Azerbaijan is the
main problem in the Caucasus."
While on board the plane taking him to the Yerevan meeting, Babacan
simply repeated the earlier voiced official position of his
government. Despite the fact that on April 16 Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan met with Turkey's top diplomat and discussed issues of
settling Armenian-Turkish relations in accordance with the protocol,
somebody had already named this visit "a mere formality"....
The visit of the Armenian President to Moscow on April 23 appears to
be more important. The leader of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliev is already in
the Russian capital today, and he has discussed the expediency of
holding a special meeting on Nagorno Karabakh in June this year with
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, who had come up with this
initiative himself and suggested that the meeting be held on the
sidelines of an economic forum in St. Petersburg due in June.
On April 23, President Sargsyan will discuss this issue with the
Russian President and state his position. Thus, more interesting
developments can be expected next week.
******************************************* *********************************
2. OPEN COMMUNICATIONS: SARGSYAN-AHMADINEJAD FURTHER ARMENIA-IRAN
ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITIES
By Gayane Lazarian
ArmeniaNow reporter
President Serzh Sargsyan returned from his visit to Iran earlier this
week having signed a number of documents and with hopes that several
major projects with the southern neighbor will get off the drawing
board soon.
Among the eight documents signed after two days of negotiations were a
cooperation memorandum on the implementation of the Armenia-Iran
railway project, as well as an agreement about financing the
construction of a hydropower plant on the river Arax and the Free
Trade Agreement between Armenia and Iran. Sargsyan and his Iranian
counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also signed a joint declaration.
Sevak Sarukhanyan, Deputy Director of the Noravank Research and
Education Foundation, says while the global financial crisis will have
its impact on the implementation of the Armenian-Iranian projects, it
still will not cause their suspension since 'there are important
economic preconditions for their implementation.'
"All of these projects give Armenia an opportunity to make steps for
overcoming the blockade, and to integrate into the regional and world
economy," he says.
The Iran-Armenia gas pipeline is only one part of economic
cooperation. The construction of an oil refinery in Armenia, as well
as the construction of the Armenia-Iran railway may promote
intergovernmental relations. The realization of such programs cannot
be a mere part of Armenian-Iranian relations. It is connected with
Iran's regional and, in some cases, even with international strategy,
and it comprises clear political and economic components.
Garnik Asatryan, head of the Department of Iranian Studies at the
Faculty of Oriental Studies at Yerevan State University, talking about
the construction of the Armenia-Iran railway, said 'the realization of
this project may take Armenia out of the road and communication
isolation.'
"This is the most serious program between Armenia and Iran being
realized during the last 20 years," he added.
While hosting Sargsyan, the president of the Islamic Republic greatly
evaluated the deepening of Armenian-Iranian relations and said that
the relations between the two countries are subject to enlargement,
since there are 'common approaches.'
"Our relations are based on mutual respect and trust. The development
and stability of Armenia are favorable for the region, and
particularly, for Iran. I hope that Armenian-Iranian relations will
enlarge also in the international arena," Ahmadinejad reportedly said.
According to Sarukhanyan, a railway with Iran will allow Armenia to
have a shorter railway road also to Central Asia and China -- a
circumstance that may prove significant in efforts for getting funding
for the construction.
Armenian Parliament Speaker Hovik Abrahamyan discussed the issue of
the railway during his visit to China last year and, according to
official information, it aroused interest of the Chinese side.
Stepan Safaryan, a parliamentarian with the opposition 'Heritage'
faction, believes it will be impossible to realize the railway
construction project solely through bilateral efforts and investments.
"In this respect it is necessary to involve third parties who might
participate in the construction of the railway, as well as its
financing. In this respect I believe that China, India, and the Gulf
states may be interested in this project," he said.
During President Sargsyan's visit to Iran RA Minister of Transport and
Communications Gurgen Sargsyan and Iranian Minister of Roads and
Transportation Hamid Behbahani singed a memorandum of mutual
understanding on railway construction that had earlier been inked in
Yerevan.
"A working group, headed by the deputies of the two ministers is
created. During the upcoming three months it will initiate all the
preliminary steps connected with the implementation of the project,"
said Gurgen Sargsyan.
As for the railway construction terms, G. Sargsyan stated that there
are several various calculations, according to some of which the
construction of the railway may take four to five years. It is also
hard to say how much it would cost, because it is not clear yet how
long (in kilometers) the tunnels would be after the formation of the
project.
"The construction of tunnels costs rather high. Anyway, the price may
be between $1.5-1.8 billion, depending on the variant of the project,"
says G. Sargsyan.
It was announced earlier that the implementation of the project may
consist of three phases - a feasibility study, projecting and
cartography of the railway, and the main construction works. According
to the preliminary estimations, the railway will be 470 kilometers
long, including 60 km in the territory of Iran.
As for Armenian-Iranian relations in the oil sphere, Sarukhanyan says
Iran is a country exporting crude oil and importing refined oil and
petrol. According to him, 40 out of 60 oil wells in the territory of
Iran are either used up entirely or partially. Four large and 18 small
oil refineries running in Iran do not manage to meet the demand of
refined oil products as a result of which Iran currently has to import
40 percent of used oil products from abroad.
"With absence of direct western investments into energy, it is hard to
construct new modern plants in Iran. Iranians do not posses modern
refining technologies and capacities. There are no attractive economic
conditions in Iran for western investors. In this respect,
construction of an oil refinery in Armenia is favorable for Iran. And
this construction may become a Russian-Iranian joint project," says
Sarukhanyan.
The first announcement of a possible oil refinery construction project
was made still in early 2007 during a meeting between the then
presidents of Armenia and Russia, Robert Kocharyan and Vladimir Putin.
Sarukhanyan believes that in its turn the construction of the
Iran-Armenia railway will connect Iran and Armenia railways into a
single line, which (if Meghri also joins by a single line with
Armenia's railway network passing around Nakhijevan) gives the Islamic
Republic an opportunity to have a safer and more favorable access to
Georgia's Black Sea ports.
And what would be Iran's position if Armenia and Turkey achieve
normalization in their relations?
Garnik Asatryan says: "Armenia has a strategic importance for Iran,
and no matter how the forces are arranged, Iran will never have less
interest in Armenia."
Sarukhanyan believes that the reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border
may create a new market for Iranian oil refined in Armenia.
"Still last year authorities in Azerbaijan made a decision to close
two oil refineries in Baku. Georgian authorities are also hinting on
such a possibility. It is not ruled out that in two years there will
not be even a single oil refinery in the South Caucasus. And this may
create a favorable, new and rather attractive condition for oil
products production business and the construction of a new plant,"
says Sarukhanyan.
According to him, the construction of the oil refinery is very
important for Armenia not only because the energy security of the
country would be strengthened, but also an Iran-Armenia oil pipeline
and railway would be constructed.
************************************ ****************************************
3. COURT CONTROVERSY: CONVICTION OF JAVAKHK ACTIVIST IN GEORGIA SPARKS
PROTEST AMONG ARMENIANS
By Sara Khojoyan
ArmeniaNow reporter
The lengthy prison sentence passed on an Armenian political activist
in Georgia has sparked protest among some Diaspora Armenian groups who
believe Vahagn Chakhalyan has been wrongly convicted and demand his
immediate release.
Chakhalyan, from Javakhk, an Armenian-populated province in Georgia,
had been tried and found guilty by a Georgian court on a string of
charges relating to breaking public order. He was sentenced to ten
years in prison earlier this month.
Chakhalyan, who was arrested last July, has been an active champion of
the rights of Armenians living in Javakhk. His verdict and official
Tbilisi's attitude toward him caused a new wave of activity among
Diaspora Armenians.
A demonstration criticizing the verdict was organized by the Council
Coordinating Armenian Organizations in France (CCAOF) in front of the
Georgian Embassy in Paris on April 14 evening.
"The lawsuit was not equitable and transparent. We call for the
immediate release of Vahagn Chakhalyan," stated Alexis Govciyan and
Mourad Papazian, Armenian Revolutionary Federation 'Dashnaktsutyun'
(ARF) Party's CCAOF members, who met Georgian Ambassador to France
Mamuka Kudava. He wrote down all the complaints of the protestors and
assured that he would send them to Tbilisi.
Sevak Artsruni, head of the 'Yerkir' (Country) Union of Repatriation
and Argumentation NGOs (non-governmental organization) dealing with
the problems of Armenians living in Georgia, gives assurances that it
is a positive development in this problem.
"If before the Georgian authorities did not refer to the announcements
condemning the illegality of Chakhalyan's verdict, now they seriously
treated the demonstration in Paris, and even tried to justify it,"
stated Artsruni at the Pastark press club the day after the
demonstration.
On April 7, 2009, the District Court of Akhaltskha announced a verdict
against Chakhalyan, the leader of the 'United Javakhk' Democratic
Union political movement, as well as his brother and father.
Chakhalyan is sentenced to ten years of imprisonment for obtaining and
keeping weapons and ammunition, as well as for organizing mass events,
for making a group resistance to a police officer or a state official,
and for making a row against an authority representative or another
person trying to stop an act of hooliganism.
"The trial was a complete disgrace, odd situations were provoked not
only at the Court but also out of it. For example, when taking into
consideration the accusation of keeping weapons-ammunition the defense
lawyer presented a petition to check the finger-prints on the weapon,
the judge sharply refused to grant the request," says Ruben Tatoyan,
Programs Coordinator of the 'Yerkir' Union.
The Chakhalyan defense counsel are planning to appeal the verdict at
higher judicial instances, and later if necessary - at the European
Court of Human Rights.
And as for the participants of the Parisian demonstration, they
demanded a French lawyer to defend the Head of United Javakhk at the
Court, because previously the Court did not allow French-Armenian
lawyer Patrick Arabian to defend Chakhalyan's interests.
His verdict caused strict criticism in Armenia, too. For example, soon
after the verdict was announced, Russian Ambassador to Armenia Nikolay
Pavlov announced that it was the current intrigue of the Georgian
authorities.
Giro Manoyan, Head of ARF's Armenian Cause and Political Affairs
Office, stated that this way the Georgian authorities are trying to
threaten those living in Javakhk who attempt to defend their own
constitutional rights.
This week the verdict was criticized by the Armenian Volunteers' Unity
political union; it evaluated Georgia's position towards Chakhalyan as
"political persecution accompanied with great violations of legality."
"This persecution is evidently directed towards the strengthening of
the situation depriving native Armenians living in Javakhk of their
rights, as well as the destruction of the public and cultural sphere,
and as a consequence, immediately making Armenians leave the
territory," the announcement says.
NGOs involved in the sphere have long been raising concerns over the
protection of identity of Armenians living in Georgia. And those
problems are mainly connected with teaching the Armenian language,
protection of historical-cultural monuments, as well as registration
of the Armenian Apostolic Church.
Shirak Torosyan, Chairman of the Javakhk Patriotic Union, who
regularly raises problems of Georgian-Armenians at the Armenian
National Assembly, last week said Chakhalyan's trial was a result of a
"political order."
"The Georgian Government managed to create an artificial case, as if
they found illegal ammunition, explosives at Chakhalyan's house.
However, there is no expert examination; there are no finger-prints.
If we define the situation by a single sentence, we can say that the
trial had a political nature, directed not only against Vahagn
Chakhalyan, but also all Armenians living in Javakhk," stated the
parliamentarian.
"I am almost sure this problem will have a fair settlement. And in
this way the anti-Armenian mask of the Georgian authorities will be
torn," added Torosyan.
He is worried about the attempt to make Javakhk's problem (Javakhk is
the historical name of Samtskhe-Javakheti Province situated in the
south-west of Georgia) an internal issue by some forces in Armenia.
Artsruni is also concerned about the fact that some forces try to
insist that Georgia's Armenians have no problem.
Meanwhile, Hayk Sanosyan, a member of the Armenian parliament and
member of the Georgian Armenians' Unity NGO's board was guarded
against exaggerating relations, based only on this most recent case.
"Armenians living in Javakhk currently do not have any problem
connected with identity protection. There are no concerns in this
respect. There are mere social issues in Javakhk, and those forces,
institutions that try to artificially exaggerate the situation making
it tense, simply fulfill the order of a third party," said Sanosyan at
the Azdak press club.
******************************************* *********************************
4. SNOWSTORMS: EVENTFULL WEEKS IN REGION
Analysis by Aris Ghazinyan
Snowfall has swept over Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan from west to
east. This event, unusual for April, took place immediately after the
long-awaited meetings of the US and Turkish presidents in Istanbul.
Political scientists joke - the clean white snow has covered the
traces of most difficult negotiations.
The snow already melted the next day, and land began to show on the
political surface of the region. The politicians felt the ground under
their feet and began clarifying the situation with new statements.
Azerbaijan was the first. Against the background of the possible
opening of the Armenian-Turkish border, Azerbaijan brought forth three
preconditions Turkey has to meet.
According to Turkish newspaper "Hurriyet Daily News & Economic
Review," the conditions are: "First of all, Armenia must withdraw
forces from the five occupied regions surrounding Nagorno Karabakh -
Aghdam, Fizuli, Jebrail, Zangilan and Gubadli. Secondly, Armenia must
give back the southern part of Lachin corridor. Thirdly, Turkey must
get an opportunity to use the Lachin corridor."
Reportedly, some anonymous official has handed over these
preconditions to the Turkish leaders on behalf of Azeri authorities.
If this corresponds to reality, then it's not quite clear why Azeris
wouldn't announce it themselves. The announcement was quoted in Baku
press, and no disclaimers followed.
Then it became known that the Azeri delegation may take part in the
Yerevan session of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic
Cooperation (BSEC). The news is that traditionally Baku does not take
part in the sessions of international organizations that are held in
Yerevan.
"This year our country is taking over the chair in this organization
from Armenia, that is why we are considering the possibility of our
organization's representatives taking part in this event," a
press-service employee of the Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan Elkhan
Polukhov announced. However, he stated right away that "the opening of
Turkish-Armenian border will increase tension in the region and will
be a wrong step, both strategically and tactically."
The Turkish Prime Minster hasn't done anything new or special these
days. Moreover, he confirmed the old postulate that "the signing of
the agreement aimed at settling the relations between Armenia and
Turkey is impossible before settling the issue of disputed territories
between Armenia and Azerbaijan."
"We will not sign a final agreement with Armenia until the Nagorno
Karabakh issue is settled," informed Turkish information agency
"Anatolia" on April 11.
If the Turkish Prime Minister has not said anything fundamentally new,
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan stated the following: "By the
beginning of the return match between the teams of Armenia and Turkey
the border will be opened or we will be on the threshold of that
event. I may go to that match across the deployed border." (The two
national teams are to meet on October 7 for World Cup qualifying.)
Head of the Central Office of "Hay Dat" on political issues of the
Armenian Revolutionary Federation "Dashnaktsutyun" Giro Manoyan says
it is too early for such a proclamation. "If the negotiations reach a
deadlock, his trip will not make sense."
Besides, Manoyan is sure that "Obama will keep his promise and
recognize the Armenian Genocide in his country. We are sure of this.
But if the US President doesn't do it, it will cause everybody's
disappointment with Obama, because he was elected as the president of
change." Along with this, he did not exclude that the announcements of
the Turkish side are just a show aiming at comforting Azerbaijan.
"The main problem in the Caucasus is the Karabakh issue between
Armenia and Azerbaijan," Turkish President Abdullah Gul stated in an
interview to Financial Times recently. "We hope that the problem will
be resolved and a new climate will settle in the Caucasus. Indeed,
even though it is a comparatively small territory, it can ether become
a wall or a gate between East and West."
************************************** **************************************
5. THOUGHTS NEAR ARARAT: GEOPOLITICS AS SEEN BY RESIDENTS OF A
BORDERLINE VILLAGE
By Karine Ionesyan
ArmeniaNow reporter
A full-flowing river, valleys of various shades, a poplar tree, a
famous bird standing on one leg - the stork, and, of course, biblical
Mount Ararat in the image of the Sleeping Beauty.
This is how Western Armenia usually looks on the canvases of Armenian
artists. And the villagers of Margara witness the reality depicted on
those canvases every day, but the happiness of enjoying the scenery is
given only to the characters in the painting - the storks. This is
where Armenia and modern Turkey are divided by a 268-kilometer border
that has remained closed since the 1930s (in 1991-1993 the border was
briefly opened for trade). First it was where the Iron Curtain ran
during the Cold War era separating Soviet Armenia and NATO-allied
Turkey. But since the break-up of the USSR and Armenia's independence
Turkey has made the opening of the border conditional on the
resolution of the long-running Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Turkey
insists on a settlement that would favor its ethnic ally Azerbaijan as
well as the end of the worldwide Armenian push for the recognition by
the world's governments of the World War I-era killings of 1.5 million
Armenians in Ottoman Turkey as genocide - something that the
successive Turkish governments have vigorously denied for decades.
In the recent period, Armenian-Turkish political relations have
undergone new developments.
Conversations around this topic of opening the Armenian-Turkish border
began to circulate in the village of Margara, in Armavir province -
some 40 kilometers southwest of Yervan - as this is the only village
that has a possibility of an immediate borderline connection to Turkey
- a concrete bridge - over the river.
Most of the 1,500 residents of the village believe that after the
opening of the border they would see improvement in their lives.
"I get a pension of 42,000 dram (about $110), but I have six children
with their families, none of whom works," says 75-year-old resident
Kostan Philiposyan. "The border will be opened, trade will develop,
the price of land will increase, tourists will come, and our folks
will have jobs."
Should the border open, Kostan says his first steps would be to go see
his mother's birthplace in Igdir, the town closest to Margara - about
30 kilometers away.The elderly man tells with tears in his eyes that
his mother lost almost all her relatives at age 16. "My grandfather
had said to my mother and uncle that he was going back for their
relatives. He marked a stone with red to be able to find the way back
afterwards, but he never came back. So, only my mother and brother
were saved thanks to the bridge leading to Margara, which was made of
wood then."
Kostan says that the opening of the border does not mean that they are
forgetting everything and forgiving the Turks, nor are they ready to
return Karabakh's lands, "even if the authorities decide so, the
people will oppose it, as we had shed blood there."
In any case, the villager says he is ready to accept Turks as
neighbors. "My father died during World War II in Germany, does that
mean we must not communicate with Germans?"
Kostan wishes for the Margara bridge to be opened as it was opened
once in the 1980s , when 4,000 tons of wheat were brought to Armenia
from Greece (via Turkey). But for 20 years conversations on opening it
have led to stalemate.
"When the Armenia-Turkey soccer game took place, we thought the fans
would come through Margara, but that did not happen. If they want to
open it now, they must start construction work on the roads already.
They haven't started yet, therefore I don't believe the border will be
opened. They may open it near Gyumri, as there's a railway there, but
here? - I don't know," says Hayk Aramyan, who has been headmaster of a
local school for 16 years.
Aramyan says the 200 children studying at school are also excited by
the speculations about opening the border - according to him, the
young generation understands well what is profitable for today. "Once
in 1994, Turkish businessmen came to Armenia. They decided to take a
walk around Armenian markets as well, after which they said that if
the border was opened, the prices of the goods imported from Turkey
would be twice as cheap."
It is mostly Kurds who reside on the Turkish side of the borderline
regions, with whom Turks often have disagreements. Aramyan wishes for
the border to open, but he has one concern, "if it is opened, the
Kurds will also get rich, and I don't think Turks need that."
The school headmaster doesn't think there can be contradictions
between Turks and Armenians. He says that during so many years he has
been cautious, but also on some occasions happened to share both food
and drink with Turks.
Margara village has only 300 hectares of farmland, of which 200
hectares are in the monitored zone. Every year, village residents get
special permits from locally stationed Russian border troops to get
access to their farmland across the barbed wire.
Head of the rural administration Khachik Asatryan says that no
extraordinary cases of border conflict were registered during these
years.
Asatryan has no answer to the question whether the border will
eventually be opened or will remain closed. He says he is "too small a
person" to make conclusions. "But if the President of the country
makes such statements, that's probably how it's going to be."
No matter, he says he will continue to look at Ararat every day, even
at night, with his children, telling them about the historical lands
of Western Armenia and the Genocide, as his parents once told him, and
as their parents had once told them.
******************************************* ********************************
6. NKR IN FOCUS: BORDER TALK CENTERS ON PEACE SETTLEMENT
By Naira Hairumyan
ArmeniaNow Karabakh reporter
After the visit of the US President Barack Obama to Turkey, the
country leader Abdullah Gul stated that the settlement of the
Armenian-Turkish relations is impossible without settling the Karabakh
issue between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Official Yerevan announced that
they do not make the relations with Turkey conditional by the Karabakh
issue. Many experts believe that this has led the process into a
deadlock.
Commenting on the Armenian-Turkish relations during a press conference
on April 10, President Serzh Sargsyan announced for the first time
that Armenia might opt out of the process of the Armenian-Turkish
negotiations. He said the reason for this is that the Turkish press
and official Ankara connect the normalization of the Armenian-Turkish
relations with genocide recognition and Karabakh settlement. "Can the
Turks, having changed their position, bring forth conditions we have
to comply with? We must not exclude the possibility of such a turn of
events. But in this case, we will opt out of the process, having
gained strength," Sargsyan said.
Against this background, on April 4 and 5 American Co-Chair of the
OSCE Minsk Group Matthew Bryza made an unplanned visit to Baku, and
his French colleague Bernard Fassier - to Yerevan and Baku. Besides,
unplanned consultations took place between heads of Foreign Ministries
of Armenia and Karabakh in the Armenian Foreign Ministry on April 3.
Armenian press published materials that stated that Armenia might opt
for settling Armenian-Turkish relations at the cost of making
concessions in the Karabakh issue.
None of the parties denies the necessity of settling the Karabakh
issue. The differences are in the ways of settling it. Turkey,
Azerbaijan and mediators insist on withdrawing Armenian armed forces
from the conflict zone, the return of the refugees and the territories
surrounding the former Nagorno-Karabakh Republic to Azerbaijan and
granting a temporary status to Karabakh. The Armenian side does not
accept this option.
"In our opinion, to create a basis for the final settlement of the
Azeri-Karabakh conflict and establish solid peace in the region it is
necessary, in the first place, that Nagorno Karabakh Republic and the
Republic of Azerbaijan sign mutual recognition and jointly reject the
attempts of military settlement of the conflict. The mutual
recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and Azerbaijan and giving up
on the military schemes must be the staring point in the negations,
not the end point," Nagorno Karabakh Foreign Minister Georgi Petrosyan
believes.
The chair of the committee on external relations of the Karabakh
parliament Vahram Atanesyan says that Karabakh's goals are clear. "We
are obliged to solve a very pragmatic task - guarantee the Karabakh
population with the acceptable form of state self-determination,
within acceptable borders, with preference of their own security
system. The Karabakh issue is a very capacious process, and no
accelerated decisions can be made here."
However, the plan of settling the Karabakh conflict, suggested by the
mediators, is apparently not to Azerbaijan's liking as well. According
to the suggested principles, Baku completely loses power over former
Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous District. This doesn't fit in with
Azerbaijan's plans. And official Ankara is helping them, announcing
about the impossibility of opening the Turkish-Armenian border before
resolving the Karabakh conflict.
"Giving such an oversensitive reaction to the seeming warming of the
Armenian-Turkish relations and expressing their readiness to use
sanctions against its strategic partner and "elder brother,"
Azerbaijan, mildly speaking, places its own reliability as an economic
partner and political ally under serious suspicion," Karabakh
political scientist Norayr Hovsepyan believes. "If we assume that the
anti-Turkish propaganda in Azerbaijan, unfolded recently, is just an
episode of a joint Turkish-Azeri scenario, then official Baku should
be given credit for playing its role brilliantly, although, the acting
as a whole, lacking exquisite diplomatic nuances, turned out to be
unconvincing. In any case, that's the impression that has shaped up in
Nagorno Karabakh, unlike Europe and Russia," the political scientist
thinks.
It is obvious that the settlement of the Karabakh issue becomes topic
number one in regional politics. There are already signs of activating
the "shuttle diplomacy" of the Minsk Group, even the EU has announced
about its readiness to assist in the settlement of the Karabakh issue,
but this has not changed the essence of the suggested principles of
settlement. And that means that the sides still remain polarized.
"It is evident that such kind of diplomacy, and, moreover,
intimidation attempts, are unable to lead to resolving the Karabakh
issue. Ignoring the current reality and mistaking the imaginary for
the real, Azerbaijan authorities are consistently pursuing
anti-Armenian policy, first of all deluding their own public. In
actuality, Turkey has special influence on Azerbaijan, and if
constructive approach is displayed, Turkey can play an important role
in resolving the conflict, convincing Azerbaijan to give up on the
unsubstantiated claims for Nagorno Karabakh," Hovsepyan says.
******************************************* ********************************
7. WEATHERING THE STORM: A COMMENTARY ON THE "HIDDEN" AND "HEAVY"
HANDS OF ARMENIAN ECONOMICS
By Richard Giragosian
In one of the most profound and long-lasting economic theories, Adam
Smith formulated the concept of the invisible or "hidden hand" to
describe the underlying process of market economic forces. In his
groundbreaking work, "The Wealth of Nations," Smith contended that
"hidden hand" of market economics was an inherently self-regulating
process, whereby an individual pursuing his own self-interest within a
market-based economy tends to promote the "public good" of the larger
community or society as a whole.
For Smith, although the concept of the hidden hand does not
necessarily seek a social order or economic justice, it nevertheless
benefits the public interest. Despite the profit-driven order of the
hidden hand, it is also opposed to monopolies or oligarchic structures
as obstacles to free trade and as threats to natural economic
development.
But the concept of the hidden hand, and its convergence of
self-interest with public interest in terms of strengthening national
economic growth, does not apply to a country like Armenia.
For Armenia, the economic concept of the hidden hand does not apply,
for two important reasons. First, there is an absence of an
underlying free market, which, in the case of Armenia, has become
dominated by powerful commodity-based cartels that have distorted
economic growth and disdained market-based competition. Second, the
potential of economic individual self-interest has been checked by the
emergence of more serious obstacles of corruption and a closed
economic system that hinders entrepreneurs and business start-ups.
In the Armenian model, the concept of the "hidden hand" has been
replaced by the concept of the "heavy hand," reflecting the power and
interference of oligarchic semi-monopolies and cartels, as well as
entrenched corruption.
The emergence of the "heavy hand" in all of the post-Soviet states has
become one of the defining characteristics of transition economies.
Yet in the case of Armenia, the "heavy hand" has also become endowed
with the destructive role of the state, in terms of both supporting
and relying on oligarchic structures.
The state's dual role in both benefiting from and bolstering the
oligarchic structures of the Armenian economy has become even more
apparent in recent weeks. For example, the Armenian state's recent
decision to extend some 20 billion drams ($54 million) in credit
guarantees to local construction firms only amplifies the
far-too-close relationship between the state and the oligarchs.
Despite the government's seemingly well-intentioned decision to
support one of the country's main drivers of economic growth, such
state aid to the construction sector --- one of the most obviously
closed sectors --- does little to ease the burden from the broader
global economic crisis.
But the contraction of the Armenia's construction industry, which over
the last several years accounted for nearly one-quarter of Armenia's
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has much less to do with any direct
effects from the global economic crisis, however, and stems more
directly from a sharp reduction in the influx of Russian investment in
this sector.
Moreover, it has been the rather opaque and dubious level of Russian
investment in Armenian construction that has helped to fuel a boom in
expensive residential and commercial building, although neither was
driven by any real domestic demand, as the low level of occupancy has
confirmed.
In fact, the contraction of Armenia's housing boom, or more
accurately, its construction "bubble," can be traced to the onset of a
financial and economic crisis in Russia, mainly because many of the
largest real estate developers in Yerevan have been individuals close
to the mayor of Moscow, reflecting both the questionable and
politically-connected nature of such Russian investment.
In this way, the Armenian state seems to be inadvertently contributing
to both sustaining an unnatural and overly-speculative "bubble" and
supporting one of the more corrupt and oligarchic sectors of the
economy.
But a related decision for state support may provide welcome relief
for home-buyers in Armenia. In large part to meet the low level of
demand for the over-supply of high-end residential property and
apartments, the Armenian Central Bank has also announced plans to
spend some 5 billion drams to create a new mortgage lending company to
facilitate housing loans to consumers on much more affordable terms,
aimed at broadening demand.
Another recent, similar example of the state aid for oligarchic
structures was the move in February to provide $10 million in new
lending to the Zangezur Copper-Molybdenum factory. Although there is
hope that this aid will ensure that the company will no longer be
forced to layoff its workers, as thousands have already lost their
jobs in the mining sector, such state support for large, generally
oligarch-owned or -operated firms is inherently dangerous for natural
economic development.
And against the backdrop of a sharp fall in international prices for
metals and minerals, it remains to be seen whether the Armenian
government can do much to weather the deeper and broader global
economic crisis that is now only more seriously impacting Armenia.
But clearly, the imperative is to weaken the "heavy hand" of Armenia's
oligarchic economics and to look instead to build on the openness and
unrestricted economics of Adam Smith's "hidden hand."
.....................................
Richard Giragosian is the director of the Yerevan-based Armenian
Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS). "Weathering
the Storm" is a weekly column exclusively for ArmeniaNow.
************************************* ***************************************
8. TIME FOR TRUTH: TURKEY RENEGED BUT PRESIDENT OBAMA MUST NOT
A commentary by Jirair Haratunian
www.aaainc.org
The Turkish government has bowed to pressure from Baku and retreated
from its earlier negotiating stance that the resolution of the Nagorno
Karabakh issue was not a precondition to restoring bilateral relations
with Armenia. The Anatolian News Agency reported that Turkey's Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told a news conference on April 10, "We
will not sign a final deal with Armenia unless there is agreement
between Azerbaijan and Armenia on Nagorno Karabakh." Armenia's Foreign
Minister Edward Nalbandian protested these Turkish assertions and said
that during the entire negotiations the Karabakh question had never
been linked with progress towards normalization of relations between
Armenia and Turkey.
Erdogan's insistence on a precondition regarding Nagorno Karabakh
effectively shuts the door on any early agreement. It dashes the
hopes that at long last Turkey would demonstrate the political will to
begin the process of normalizing relations with Armenia.
Turkish reneging will embarrass the American president. It contradicts
President Barack Obama's praise of Turkey and Armenia for the
diplomatic progress they were making to reopen their common border and
resolve their long standing problems. It also removes any pretext to
fear that an Obama reaffirmation of the Armenian Genocide will upset
the prospects for reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey. Erdogan,
himself, removed that argument.
Armenian-Americans must now redouble their efforts to insist that
President Obama move from implicitly acknowledging the Armenian
Genocide, as he did in Turkey, to explicitly and unambiguously
reaffirming of the historical truth of the Armenian Genocide.
Obama's reputation is at stake. His credibility as an honest leader
whose word is his bond will be lost if he too reneges.
But beyond an American affirmation of the Armenian Genocide, it is
equally important for Washington to condemn Turkey's regression in the
process that began when Turkish President Abdullah Gul visited Yerevan
in response to President Serzh Sargsyan's football diplomacy
initiative.
Until a few weeks ago there were expectations that a breakthrough was
imminent. There was public speculation that an agreement might be
announced while Obama was in Turkey, or perhaps when Turkish Foreign
Minister Ali Babacan attends the Black Sea Economic Conference (BSEC)
later this month in Yerevan. One time line has passed without an
agreement, and clearly the other will as well.
This failure also portends new roadblocks in the diplomatic efforts to
resolve the Nagorno Karabakh problem, as it will embolden Baku to
resist any compromise.
Ironically, recent American actions held out hope for progress on both
the Nagorno Karabakh diplomatic front and Turkish Armenian relations.
President Obama met privately with Foreign Minister Nalbandian in
Istanbul and then convened a meeting with the foreign ministers of
Armenia, Turkey, and Switzerland. Apparently the Swiss were prompted
to act as follow-up conciliators. Obama also telephoned Azerbaijan's
President Ilham Aliyev from Istanbul urging progress on the Nagorno
Karabakh issue and the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border.
Obama's meetings in Istanbul were preceded by other important
Washington initiatives. It was reported that Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton had earlier telephoned President Sargsyan and a
personal letter had been delivered to the Armenian government by U.S.
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza.
It is a pity that all this effort might be for naught. Ankara has
missed a unique opportunity to become a positive force in the troubled
region on its eastern border. It also causes President Obama's hope
that Turkey can face the dark pages of its history to ring hollow. If
Turkey cannot withstand the displeasure of Azerbaijan in the matter of
opening its border with Armenia, it can hardly be relied on to
overcome regressive Turkish nationalists who oppose any concessions on
relations with Armenia or the Nagorno Karabakh problem.
It is now up to Washington to challenge Ankara by making it clear that
despite President Obama's expressed hopes, Turkey cannot be a bridge
between the West and East so long as it blockades Armenia and retains
its unconscionable denial of the Armenian Genocide.
*************************************** ***********************************
9. WELCOME BACK: A NEW MIGRATION CENTER WILL PROMOTE ARMENIAN IMMIGRANTS
By Naira Bulghadaryan
ArmeniaNow Vanadzor reporter
Provincial migration information centers have opened in Armenia to
assist Armenians illegally living in European countries to settle in a
new environment upon return to their homeland. The centers opened from
the beginning of April in 4 provinces - Lori, Shirak, Gegharkunik,
Kotayk, and in Yerevan and will assist Armenians who have returned
from European countries, as well as to give advice on legal settlement
for those who are emigrating to European countries.
The activity of the provincial migration information centers is
managed by People In Need (PIN) Czech organization.
The centers were opened within the framework of the program
"Cooperation between countries of migration and third countries
providing shelter," which PIN implements jointly with the Armenian
Association of United Nations Organization.
"In the conditions of the growing economic crisis in European
countries, the situation of the Armenians illegally residing there
will become worse. That is why our centers will help them not to lose
hope upon returning to their home country, and to be able to adjust to
Armenian reality," says Galust Nanyan, PR person of the Armenian
branch of PIN.
"The centers will aid the governmental and non-governmental
organizations to control migration flows - involving the Armenian
Diaspora to prevent out-migration," Nanyan believes.
He assures the program will make it possible for the Armenians who
found shelter in foreign lands not only to return to their homeland,
but also to get help settling down and starting their own business.
According to the program's estimates, about 1,000 have expressed a
wish to return.
The provincial migration information centers have already started
work, waiting for immigrants.
Vanadzor provincial migration center, which was re-opened in Vanadzor
office of the Helsinki Civil Assembly defending human rights, has
already given legal advice to those who wish to emigrate to the
Russian federation. The center coordinator, lawyer Araik Zalyan says
that the applicants wanted to find out about the legal ways of leaving
for the Russian Federation and working there.
Apart from providing legal advice, Vanadzor center and others will
make it possible for those who have moved from abroad to Armenia to
set up their own businesses.
The migration center will provide up to 4,000 Euros worth of furniture
or equipment to those who volunteer to return to their homeland - to
facilitate their new businesses. This will help the returnees and
their families to settle in Armenia, without thinking about going
back.
"A person may want to open up a store or start a business in another
sphere, we will support them within that amount," says lawyer Zalyan,
who will also provide legal support.
For instance, he will help them to resolve the legal issues related to
their settling in Armenia. Vandzor migation center will also help the
citizens who have been away for many years and do not speak Armenian
or Russian.
"We will cooperate with schools to arrange Armenian and Russian
classes for them," Zalyan says.
In the conditions of economic crisis, RA migration agency cooperates
with various interantional organizations to bring Armenian citizens
back from European countries, as well as to prevent out-migtaion.
During the "Program to support RA citizens returning from Switzerland"
implemeted until the end of last year 22 families returned from
Switzerland to Aremnia: a total of 52 people in 4 years.
Six families that have returned to their homelnad were given loans to
set up small businesses. The loans were used to grow mushrooms, to
breed cattle, to make furniture, to preserve fresh fruit and
vegetables and to do trade. They received psychological, medical and
social support and some were given jobs.
Migration information centers will function until 2011.
RA Regional Management Ministry's Migration Agency statistics show
that the number of those arriving in Armenia is smaller than that of
the people leaving the country. 83,691 people came back, while about
3,000 more left.
******************************************** ********************************
10. CARE AND CONCERN: CARITAS LIGHTS EMPTY LIVES OF ELDERLY
By Naira Bulghadaryan
ArmeniaNow Vanadzor reporter
Vera Grigoryan eagerly waits for Naira every Tuesday. She takes small
steps to walk to the building entrance, leans on her cane and stares
at the steps below.
Tuesday is the only day of the week that fills the emptiness of the 81
year old for a couple of hours. On that day, social worker Naira
Mkhitaryan comes, and cleans Vera's small apartment and cooks for her.
Vera is one of the 45 beneficiaries of the "Armenian Caritas" charity
organization that helps elderly and lonely people in Vanadzor.
Care for the elderly people is not realized in Armenia at the state
level. The current project for the elderly is, I fact, being
implemented by an international organization. It covers three
provinces of Armenia - Lori, Shirak and Gegharkunik. As for the other
provinces of the country, then their elderly residents having no
children or being abandoned remain without care.
"Home care for the elderly people of Vanadzor" project has been
functioning in Vanadzor for two years now. It aims at taking care of
the older people who either have no children and or have been
abandoned by their families. One hundred elderly in Vanadzor are
involved in the project, but only 45 get social workers' assistance at
home.
"These are the people who are helpless, it's hard for them to move
around, they cannot do housework, they are unable to do the shopping
or pay utilities," Hasmik Hovsepyan, Vanadzor coordinator of the
project explains.
The organization helps (thÅ other) 55 people who can take care of
themselves, but are sick and lonely, as well as the old people who get
healthcare services at home; it provides drugs, clothing and dry food
packages, social, psychological, legal advice and assistance and in
signing up for social benefits.
Each of the three social workers in the program visits 15 elderly; one
per week. Two nurses in the program visit 6-8 clients per day for
checkups.
"A nurse came yesterday and she gave me this medicine," Vera says as
she tells about her maladies, "I have high blood pressure, my joints
ache - I cannot walk properly, and I cannot sleep well at night."
Vera had been married twice, but she was unhappy both times - both her
husbands died. Her only child also died at the age of 7.
"I have been so foolish not to have a second child," the old woman says.
She has no relatives in Vanadzor - they are spread all over. Her only
"relative" is the social worker Nara Mkhitaryan.
"Nara makes my work easier, my house stays clean for a few days, and
she cooks for me. And I bother my neighbors for 2-3 days, not the
whole week," Vera says.
After the social worker leaves, the old woman looks forward to next
Tuesday - sometimes she has guests, and sometimes she visits her
next-door neighbors.
"It's hard to while away the day," Vera says. Her TV is broken, so
sometimes she goes to a neighbor's house to watch programs.
"Loneliness is not a good thing," Vera says.
Ophelia Grigoryan, who shares a similar fate, cries every day.
The 81-year old woman cannot remember any longer for how long she has
been alone. Her husband and her two children died long ago. "I woke up
in the morning and saw that my child's eyes were open and not moving -
he was dead." And after the death of her 2.5-year old son, her 8-month
old daughter died as well.
"If only I had a child, if only I weren't lonely," she says through
her tears, "This woman is here to take care of us," she says about
Lena Ghazaryan, the social worker who takes care of her.
Ghazaryan was sewing a blanket for her at the time.
"Go and stir the dinner, my dear Lena, it may spill over." Although
she cannot cook or tidy the house herself, she still can give advice.
About 19 percent of the 283.000 residents of Lori province - 52,997
people - are pensioners.
There are no day-care centers for elderly in the province. There is a
private elderly house in Vanadzor, and a private charity canteen.
"Armenian Caritas" envisages taking care of 100 elderly people in
Vanadzor until 2011. At the same time, the organization is getting
ready to submit proposals for the 4-year development program of Lori
province for 2009-2011, involving RA government in the process of
taking care of the elderly.
Head of the Welfare Department of Lori Rural Administration Body
Valery Jaghinyan also intends to make proposals for the 4-year
development program of Lori province for 2009-2011, the proposals are
aimed at taking care of elderly people not at elderly houses or
boarding houses, but at home.
"Taking care of them in their own environment is not only inexpensive,
but also convenient for the elderly people themselves," Jaghinyan
says.
********************************* *******************************************
11. SPORT: CUP SEMIFINALS IN SOCCER; ARMENIAN WEIGHTLIFTING TEAM FIFTH
IN EUROPE
By Suren Musayelyan
ArmeniaNow reporter
Soccer
In the first-leg semifinal matches of the Armenian Cup tournament
midweek, FC Ulis Yerevan lost to FC Pyunik Yerevan 1-3, while FC Mika
Ashtarak playing at home was held to a 1-1 draw by FC Banants Yerevan.
The second-leg games are scheduled to be played on April 21 and 22.
Meanwhile, in the championship FC Pyunik Yerevan and FC Mika Ashtarak
appear to have broken away from the group after registering victories
over Kilikia (1-0) and Ararat (2-0) in the third round of matches last
weekend.
Both clubs have earned maximum points in their three matches and are 3
points clear from second-placed FC Banants Yerevan.
FC Ararat Yerevan and FC Gandzasar Kapan share the bottom position and
yet look to pick their first points.
In the fourth round of play this weekend Ararat will host Pyunik and
Mika will entertain Banants, Ulis play Shirak and Kilikia play
Gandzasar.
(Source: Armenian Football Federation ffa.am)
Weightlifting
Team Armenia finished fifth in the overall team rankings at the
European weightlifting championships in Bucharest, Romania, held on
April 3-12. Armenian athletes won one gold and two silver medals
thanks to Arakel Mirzoyan (69 kg) among men and Nazik Avdalyan (69 kg)
and Hripsime Khurshudyan (75 kg) among women.
The top team in the rankings is Russia (having a collection of five
gold, one silver and six bronze medals), followed by Turkey, Ukraine
and Belarus. (Sources: Regnum.ru, www.iwf.net)
Chess
Armenian GM Karen Movsisian scored 7 points of 9 and took 4th place in
the open which was held in La Roda, Spain. Movsisian was only half a
point behind the tournament winners GM Mihai Suba (Romania) and GM
Salvador Del Rio De Angelis (Spain). The tournament had brought
together more than 200 chess players.
Meanwhile, Armenian grandmasters Levon Aronyan and Vladimir Hakobyan
are taking part in the fourth FIDE Grand Prix series tournament in
Nalchik, Russia. The tournament runs from 15 to 30 April. Among their
opponents are GMs Peter Leko (Hungary), Alexander Grischuk (Russia),
Vassily Ivanchuk (Ukraine), Boris Gelfand (Israel), Etienne Bacrot
(France), Peter Svidler (Russia), Shakhriyar Mamedyarov (Azerbaijan),
Sergey Karjakin (Ukraine), Gata Kamsky (USA) and others.
In his opening game, Aronyan beat Azerbaijan's Mamedyarov playing with
black pieces, while Hakobyan drew against Uzbekistan's Rustam
Kasymzhanov. The two Armenian grandmasters played each other on the
second day of the tournament and Aronyan achieved a victory with white
pieces.
On Friday, Aronyan was scheduled to play Grischuk (with white pieces)
and Hakobyan was to play Mamedyarov (with black).
Sources: (www.armchess; http://nalchik2009.fide.com)
Administration Address: 26 Parpetsi St., No 9
Phone: +(374 1) 532422
Email: [email protected]
Internet: www.armenianow.com
Technical Assistance: (For technical assistance please contact Babken
Juharyan)
Email: [email protected]
*************************** **************************************************
April 17, 2009
1. Not there yet: Armenian, Turkish FMs announce no immediate
deal after talks in Yerevan
2. Open Communications: Sargsyan-Ahmadinejad further Armenia-Iran
energy and transportation opportunities
3. Court Controversy: Conviction of Javakhk activist in Georgia
sparks protest among Armenians
4. Snowstorms: Eventfull weeks in region
5. Thoughts near Ararat: Geopolitics as seen by residents of a
borderline village
6. NKR in Focus: Border talk centers on peace settlement
7. Weathering the Storm: A commentary on the "hidden" and "heavy"
hands of Armenian economics
8. Time for Truth: Turkey reneged but President Obama must not
9. Welcome back: A new migration center will promote Armenian immigrants
10. Care and Concern: Caritas lights empty lives of elderly
11. Sport: Cup semifinals in soccer; Armenian weightlifting team
fifth in Europe
***************************************** ***********************************
1. NOT THERE YET: ARMENIAN, TURKISH FMS ANNOUNCE NO IMMEDIATE DEAL
AFTER TALKS IN YEREVAN
By Aris Ghazinyan
ArmeniaNow reporter
The foreign ministers of Armenia and Turkey announced no agreement
following a meeting in Yerevan on the sidelines of a regional forum
despite speculations that a formal bilateral document could be signed
between the two estranged nations already in mid-April.
Nor did Edward Nalbandian and Ali Babacan make any sensational
statements on April 16 proving wrong optimistic views that
Armenian-Turkish normalization and opening of the border were anywhere
near in sight.
Nalbandian said instead that "today there are no intentions to sign
any documents concerning the settlement of Armenian-Turkish
relations."
Babacan had come to Armenia to attend the 20th session of the Council
of Foreign Ministers of Black Sea Economic Cooperation, a 12-member
regional organization that also includes Azerbaijan and in which
Armenia held the rotating chairmanship until the latest meeting.
He, however, was not expected to deliver anything fundamentally new in
Yerevan, since all major statements had been made before the visit.
Days before Babacan's Yerevan visit, Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed his country's position - "signing any
agreement aimed at settling bilateral relations is impossible before a
resolution of the Karabakh problem."
On the threshold of the summit in Yerevan, Turkish President Abdullah
Gul made a statement as well also linking the issue of opening the
border with the Nagorno Karabakh problem. He, in particular, pointed
out that "the Karabakh issue between Armenia and Azerbaijan is the
main problem in the Caucasus."
While on board the plane taking him to the Yerevan meeting, Babacan
simply repeated the earlier voiced official position of his
government. Despite the fact that on April 16 Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan met with Turkey's top diplomat and discussed issues of
settling Armenian-Turkish relations in accordance with the protocol,
somebody had already named this visit "a mere formality"....
The visit of the Armenian President to Moscow on April 23 appears to
be more important. The leader of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliev is already in
the Russian capital today, and he has discussed the expediency of
holding a special meeting on Nagorno Karabakh in June this year with
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, who had come up with this
initiative himself and suggested that the meeting be held on the
sidelines of an economic forum in St. Petersburg due in June.
On April 23, President Sargsyan will discuss this issue with the
Russian President and state his position. Thus, more interesting
developments can be expected next week.
******************************************* *********************************
2. OPEN COMMUNICATIONS: SARGSYAN-AHMADINEJAD FURTHER ARMENIA-IRAN
ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION OPPORTUNITIES
By Gayane Lazarian
ArmeniaNow reporter
President Serzh Sargsyan returned from his visit to Iran earlier this
week having signed a number of documents and with hopes that several
major projects with the southern neighbor will get off the drawing
board soon.
Among the eight documents signed after two days of negotiations were a
cooperation memorandum on the implementation of the Armenia-Iran
railway project, as well as an agreement about financing the
construction of a hydropower plant on the river Arax and the Free
Trade Agreement between Armenia and Iran. Sargsyan and his Iranian
counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also signed a joint declaration.
Sevak Sarukhanyan, Deputy Director of the Noravank Research and
Education Foundation, says while the global financial crisis will have
its impact on the implementation of the Armenian-Iranian projects, it
still will not cause their suspension since 'there are important
economic preconditions for their implementation.'
"All of these projects give Armenia an opportunity to make steps for
overcoming the blockade, and to integrate into the regional and world
economy," he says.
The Iran-Armenia gas pipeline is only one part of economic
cooperation. The construction of an oil refinery in Armenia, as well
as the construction of the Armenia-Iran railway may promote
intergovernmental relations. The realization of such programs cannot
be a mere part of Armenian-Iranian relations. It is connected with
Iran's regional and, in some cases, even with international strategy,
and it comprises clear political and economic components.
Garnik Asatryan, head of the Department of Iranian Studies at the
Faculty of Oriental Studies at Yerevan State University, talking about
the construction of the Armenia-Iran railway, said 'the realization of
this project may take Armenia out of the road and communication
isolation.'
"This is the most serious program between Armenia and Iran being
realized during the last 20 years," he added.
While hosting Sargsyan, the president of the Islamic Republic greatly
evaluated the deepening of Armenian-Iranian relations and said that
the relations between the two countries are subject to enlargement,
since there are 'common approaches.'
"Our relations are based on mutual respect and trust. The development
and stability of Armenia are favorable for the region, and
particularly, for Iran. I hope that Armenian-Iranian relations will
enlarge also in the international arena," Ahmadinejad reportedly said.
According to Sarukhanyan, a railway with Iran will allow Armenia to
have a shorter railway road also to Central Asia and China -- a
circumstance that may prove significant in efforts for getting funding
for the construction.
Armenian Parliament Speaker Hovik Abrahamyan discussed the issue of
the railway during his visit to China last year and, according to
official information, it aroused interest of the Chinese side.
Stepan Safaryan, a parliamentarian with the opposition 'Heritage'
faction, believes it will be impossible to realize the railway
construction project solely through bilateral efforts and investments.
"In this respect it is necessary to involve third parties who might
participate in the construction of the railway, as well as its
financing. In this respect I believe that China, India, and the Gulf
states may be interested in this project," he said.
During President Sargsyan's visit to Iran RA Minister of Transport and
Communications Gurgen Sargsyan and Iranian Minister of Roads and
Transportation Hamid Behbahani singed a memorandum of mutual
understanding on railway construction that had earlier been inked in
Yerevan.
"A working group, headed by the deputies of the two ministers is
created. During the upcoming three months it will initiate all the
preliminary steps connected with the implementation of the project,"
said Gurgen Sargsyan.
As for the railway construction terms, G. Sargsyan stated that there
are several various calculations, according to some of which the
construction of the railway may take four to five years. It is also
hard to say how much it would cost, because it is not clear yet how
long (in kilometers) the tunnels would be after the formation of the
project.
"The construction of tunnels costs rather high. Anyway, the price may
be between $1.5-1.8 billion, depending on the variant of the project,"
says G. Sargsyan.
It was announced earlier that the implementation of the project may
consist of three phases - a feasibility study, projecting and
cartography of the railway, and the main construction works. According
to the preliminary estimations, the railway will be 470 kilometers
long, including 60 km in the territory of Iran.
As for Armenian-Iranian relations in the oil sphere, Sarukhanyan says
Iran is a country exporting crude oil and importing refined oil and
petrol. According to him, 40 out of 60 oil wells in the territory of
Iran are either used up entirely or partially. Four large and 18 small
oil refineries running in Iran do not manage to meet the demand of
refined oil products as a result of which Iran currently has to import
40 percent of used oil products from abroad.
"With absence of direct western investments into energy, it is hard to
construct new modern plants in Iran. Iranians do not posses modern
refining technologies and capacities. There are no attractive economic
conditions in Iran for western investors. In this respect,
construction of an oil refinery in Armenia is favorable for Iran. And
this construction may become a Russian-Iranian joint project," says
Sarukhanyan.
The first announcement of a possible oil refinery construction project
was made still in early 2007 during a meeting between the then
presidents of Armenia and Russia, Robert Kocharyan and Vladimir Putin.
Sarukhanyan believes that in its turn the construction of the
Iran-Armenia railway will connect Iran and Armenia railways into a
single line, which (if Meghri also joins by a single line with
Armenia's railway network passing around Nakhijevan) gives the Islamic
Republic an opportunity to have a safer and more favorable access to
Georgia's Black Sea ports.
And what would be Iran's position if Armenia and Turkey achieve
normalization in their relations?
Garnik Asatryan says: "Armenia has a strategic importance for Iran,
and no matter how the forces are arranged, Iran will never have less
interest in Armenia."
Sarukhanyan believes that the reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border
may create a new market for Iranian oil refined in Armenia.
"Still last year authorities in Azerbaijan made a decision to close
two oil refineries in Baku. Georgian authorities are also hinting on
such a possibility. It is not ruled out that in two years there will
not be even a single oil refinery in the South Caucasus. And this may
create a favorable, new and rather attractive condition for oil
products production business and the construction of a new plant,"
says Sarukhanyan.
According to him, the construction of the oil refinery is very
important for Armenia not only because the energy security of the
country would be strengthened, but also an Iran-Armenia oil pipeline
and railway would be constructed.
************************************ ****************************************
3. COURT CONTROVERSY: CONVICTION OF JAVAKHK ACTIVIST IN GEORGIA SPARKS
PROTEST AMONG ARMENIANS
By Sara Khojoyan
ArmeniaNow reporter
The lengthy prison sentence passed on an Armenian political activist
in Georgia has sparked protest among some Diaspora Armenian groups who
believe Vahagn Chakhalyan has been wrongly convicted and demand his
immediate release.
Chakhalyan, from Javakhk, an Armenian-populated province in Georgia,
had been tried and found guilty by a Georgian court on a string of
charges relating to breaking public order. He was sentenced to ten
years in prison earlier this month.
Chakhalyan, who was arrested last July, has been an active champion of
the rights of Armenians living in Javakhk. His verdict and official
Tbilisi's attitude toward him caused a new wave of activity among
Diaspora Armenians.
A demonstration criticizing the verdict was organized by the Council
Coordinating Armenian Organizations in France (CCAOF) in front of the
Georgian Embassy in Paris on April 14 evening.
"The lawsuit was not equitable and transparent. We call for the
immediate release of Vahagn Chakhalyan," stated Alexis Govciyan and
Mourad Papazian, Armenian Revolutionary Federation 'Dashnaktsutyun'
(ARF) Party's CCAOF members, who met Georgian Ambassador to France
Mamuka Kudava. He wrote down all the complaints of the protestors and
assured that he would send them to Tbilisi.
Sevak Artsruni, head of the 'Yerkir' (Country) Union of Repatriation
and Argumentation NGOs (non-governmental organization) dealing with
the problems of Armenians living in Georgia, gives assurances that it
is a positive development in this problem.
"If before the Georgian authorities did not refer to the announcements
condemning the illegality of Chakhalyan's verdict, now they seriously
treated the demonstration in Paris, and even tried to justify it,"
stated Artsruni at the Pastark press club the day after the
demonstration.
On April 7, 2009, the District Court of Akhaltskha announced a verdict
against Chakhalyan, the leader of the 'United Javakhk' Democratic
Union political movement, as well as his brother and father.
Chakhalyan is sentenced to ten years of imprisonment for obtaining and
keeping weapons and ammunition, as well as for organizing mass events,
for making a group resistance to a police officer or a state official,
and for making a row against an authority representative or another
person trying to stop an act of hooliganism.
"The trial was a complete disgrace, odd situations were provoked not
only at the Court but also out of it. For example, when taking into
consideration the accusation of keeping weapons-ammunition the defense
lawyer presented a petition to check the finger-prints on the weapon,
the judge sharply refused to grant the request," says Ruben Tatoyan,
Programs Coordinator of the 'Yerkir' Union.
The Chakhalyan defense counsel are planning to appeal the verdict at
higher judicial instances, and later if necessary - at the European
Court of Human Rights.
And as for the participants of the Parisian demonstration, they
demanded a French lawyer to defend the Head of United Javakhk at the
Court, because previously the Court did not allow French-Armenian
lawyer Patrick Arabian to defend Chakhalyan's interests.
His verdict caused strict criticism in Armenia, too. For example, soon
after the verdict was announced, Russian Ambassador to Armenia Nikolay
Pavlov announced that it was the current intrigue of the Georgian
authorities.
Giro Manoyan, Head of ARF's Armenian Cause and Political Affairs
Office, stated that this way the Georgian authorities are trying to
threaten those living in Javakhk who attempt to defend their own
constitutional rights.
This week the verdict was criticized by the Armenian Volunteers' Unity
political union; it evaluated Georgia's position towards Chakhalyan as
"political persecution accompanied with great violations of legality."
"This persecution is evidently directed towards the strengthening of
the situation depriving native Armenians living in Javakhk of their
rights, as well as the destruction of the public and cultural sphere,
and as a consequence, immediately making Armenians leave the
territory," the announcement says.
NGOs involved in the sphere have long been raising concerns over the
protection of identity of Armenians living in Georgia. And those
problems are mainly connected with teaching the Armenian language,
protection of historical-cultural monuments, as well as registration
of the Armenian Apostolic Church.
Shirak Torosyan, Chairman of the Javakhk Patriotic Union, who
regularly raises problems of Georgian-Armenians at the Armenian
National Assembly, last week said Chakhalyan's trial was a result of a
"political order."
"The Georgian Government managed to create an artificial case, as if
they found illegal ammunition, explosives at Chakhalyan's house.
However, there is no expert examination; there are no finger-prints.
If we define the situation by a single sentence, we can say that the
trial had a political nature, directed not only against Vahagn
Chakhalyan, but also all Armenians living in Javakhk," stated the
parliamentarian.
"I am almost sure this problem will have a fair settlement. And in
this way the anti-Armenian mask of the Georgian authorities will be
torn," added Torosyan.
He is worried about the attempt to make Javakhk's problem (Javakhk is
the historical name of Samtskhe-Javakheti Province situated in the
south-west of Georgia) an internal issue by some forces in Armenia.
Artsruni is also concerned about the fact that some forces try to
insist that Georgia's Armenians have no problem.
Meanwhile, Hayk Sanosyan, a member of the Armenian parliament and
member of the Georgian Armenians' Unity NGO's board was guarded
against exaggerating relations, based only on this most recent case.
"Armenians living in Javakhk currently do not have any problem
connected with identity protection. There are no concerns in this
respect. There are mere social issues in Javakhk, and those forces,
institutions that try to artificially exaggerate the situation making
it tense, simply fulfill the order of a third party," said Sanosyan at
the Azdak press club.
******************************************* *********************************
4. SNOWSTORMS: EVENTFULL WEEKS IN REGION
Analysis by Aris Ghazinyan
Snowfall has swept over Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan from west to
east. This event, unusual for April, took place immediately after the
long-awaited meetings of the US and Turkish presidents in Istanbul.
Political scientists joke - the clean white snow has covered the
traces of most difficult negotiations.
The snow already melted the next day, and land began to show on the
political surface of the region. The politicians felt the ground under
their feet and began clarifying the situation with new statements.
Azerbaijan was the first. Against the background of the possible
opening of the Armenian-Turkish border, Azerbaijan brought forth three
preconditions Turkey has to meet.
According to Turkish newspaper "Hurriyet Daily News & Economic
Review," the conditions are: "First of all, Armenia must withdraw
forces from the five occupied regions surrounding Nagorno Karabakh -
Aghdam, Fizuli, Jebrail, Zangilan and Gubadli. Secondly, Armenia must
give back the southern part of Lachin corridor. Thirdly, Turkey must
get an opportunity to use the Lachin corridor."
Reportedly, some anonymous official has handed over these
preconditions to the Turkish leaders on behalf of Azeri authorities.
If this corresponds to reality, then it's not quite clear why Azeris
wouldn't announce it themselves. The announcement was quoted in Baku
press, and no disclaimers followed.
Then it became known that the Azeri delegation may take part in the
Yerevan session of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic
Cooperation (BSEC). The news is that traditionally Baku does not take
part in the sessions of international organizations that are held in
Yerevan.
"This year our country is taking over the chair in this organization
from Armenia, that is why we are considering the possibility of our
organization's representatives taking part in this event," a
press-service employee of the Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan Elkhan
Polukhov announced. However, he stated right away that "the opening of
Turkish-Armenian border will increase tension in the region and will
be a wrong step, both strategically and tactically."
The Turkish Prime Minster hasn't done anything new or special these
days. Moreover, he confirmed the old postulate that "the signing of
the agreement aimed at settling the relations between Armenia and
Turkey is impossible before settling the issue of disputed territories
between Armenia and Azerbaijan."
"We will not sign a final agreement with Armenia until the Nagorno
Karabakh issue is settled," informed Turkish information agency
"Anatolia" on April 11.
If the Turkish Prime Minister has not said anything fundamentally new,
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan stated the following: "By the
beginning of the return match between the teams of Armenia and Turkey
the border will be opened or we will be on the threshold of that
event. I may go to that match across the deployed border." (The two
national teams are to meet on October 7 for World Cup qualifying.)
Head of the Central Office of "Hay Dat" on political issues of the
Armenian Revolutionary Federation "Dashnaktsutyun" Giro Manoyan says
it is too early for such a proclamation. "If the negotiations reach a
deadlock, his trip will not make sense."
Besides, Manoyan is sure that "Obama will keep his promise and
recognize the Armenian Genocide in his country. We are sure of this.
But if the US President doesn't do it, it will cause everybody's
disappointment with Obama, because he was elected as the president of
change." Along with this, he did not exclude that the announcements of
the Turkish side are just a show aiming at comforting Azerbaijan.
"The main problem in the Caucasus is the Karabakh issue between
Armenia and Azerbaijan," Turkish President Abdullah Gul stated in an
interview to Financial Times recently. "We hope that the problem will
be resolved and a new climate will settle in the Caucasus. Indeed,
even though it is a comparatively small territory, it can ether become
a wall or a gate between East and West."
************************************** **************************************
5. THOUGHTS NEAR ARARAT: GEOPOLITICS AS SEEN BY RESIDENTS OF A
BORDERLINE VILLAGE
By Karine Ionesyan
ArmeniaNow reporter
A full-flowing river, valleys of various shades, a poplar tree, a
famous bird standing on one leg - the stork, and, of course, biblical
Mount Ararat in the image of the Sleeping Beauty.
This is how Western Armenia usually looks on the canvases of Armenian
artists. And the villagers of Margara witness the reality depicted on
those canvases every day, but the happiness of enjoying the scenery is
given only to the characters in the painting - the storks. This is
where Armenia and modern Turkey are divided by a 268-kilometer border
that has remained closed since the 1930s (in 1991-1993 the border was
briefly opened for trade). First it was where the Iron Curtain ran
during the Cold War era separating Soviet Armenia and NATO-allied
Turkey. But since the break-up of the USSR and Armenia's independence
Turkey has made the opening of the border conditional on the
resolution of the long-running Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Turkey
insists on a settlement that would favor its ethnic ally Azerbaijan as
well as the end of the worldwide Armenian push for the recognition by
the world's governments of the World War I-era killings of 1.5 million
Armenians in Ottoman Turkey as genocide - something that the
successive Turkish governments have vigorously denied for decades.
In the recent period, Armenian-Turkish political relations have
undergone new developments.
Conversations around this topic of opening the Armenian-Turkish border
began to circulate in the village of Margara, in Armavir province -
some 40 kilometers southwest of Yervan - as this is the only village
that has a possibility of an immediate borderline connection to Turkey
- a concrete bridge - over the river.
Most of the 1,500 residents of the village believe that after the
opening of the border they would see improvement in their lives.
"I get a pension of 42,000 dram (about $110), but I have six children
with their families, none of whom works," says 75-year-old resident
Kostan Philiposyan. "The border will be opened, trade will develop,
the price of land will increase, tourists will come, and our folks
will have jobs."
Should the border open, Kostan says his first steps would be to go see
his mother's birthplace in Igdir, the town closest to Margara - about
30 kilometers away.The elderly man tells with tears in his eyes that
his mother lost almost all her relatives at age 16. "My grandfather
had said to my mother and uncle that he was going back for their
relatives. He marked a stone with red to be able to find the way back
afterwards, but he never came back. So, only my mother and brother
were saved thanks to the bridge leading to Margara, which was made of
wood then."
Kostan says that the opening of the border does not mean that they are
forgetting everything and forgiving the Turks, nor are they ready to
return Karabakh's lands, "even if the authorities decide so, the
people will oppose it, as we had shed blood there."
In any case, the villager says he is ready to accept Turks as
neighbors. "My father died during World War II in Germany, does that
mean we must not communicate with Germans?"
Kostan wishes for the Margara bridge to be opened as it was opened
once in the 1980s , when 4,000 tons of wheat were brought to Armenia
from Greece (via Turkey). But for 20 years conversations on opening it
have led to stalemate.
"When the Armenia-Turkey soccer game took place, we thought the fans
would come through Margara, but that did not happen. If they want to
open it now, they must start construction work on the roads already.
They haven't started yet, therefore I don't believe the border will be
opened. They may open it near Gyumri, as there's a railway there, but
here? - I don't know," says Hayk Aramyan, who has been headmaster of a
local school for 16 years.
Aramyan says the 200 children studying at school are also excited by
the speculations about opening the border - according to him, the
young generation understands well what is profitable for today. "Once
in 1994, Turkish businessmen came to Armenia. They decided to take a
walk around Armenian markets as well, after which they said that if
the border was opened, the prices of the goods imported from Turkey
would be twice as cheap."
It is mostly Kurds who reside on the Turkish side of the borderline
regions, with whom Turks often have disagreements. Aramyan wishes for
the border to open, but he has one concern, "if it is opened, the
Kurds will also get rich, and I don't think Turks need that."
The school headmaster doesn't think there can be contradictions
between Turks and Armenians. He says that during so many years he has
been cautious, but also on some occasions happened to share both food
and drink with Turks.
Margara village has only 300 hectares of farmland, of which 200
hectares are in the monitored zone. Every year, village residents get
special permits from locally stationed Russian border troops to get
access to their farmland across the barbed wire.
Head of the rural administration Khachik Asatryan says that no
extraordinary cases of border conflict were registered during these
years.
Asatryan has no answer to the question whether the border will
eventually be opened or will remain closed. He says he is "too small a
person" to make conclusions. "But if the President of the country
makes such statements, that's probably how it's going to be."
No matter, he says he will continue to look at Ararat every day, even
at night, with his children, telling them about the historical lands
of Western Armenia and the Genocide, as his parents once told him, and
as their parents had once told them.
******************************************* ********************************
6. NKR IN FOCUS: BORDER TALK CENTERS ON PEACE SETTLEMENT
By Naira Hairumyan
ArmeniaNow Karabakh reporter
After the visit of the US President Barack Obama to Turkey, the
country leader Abdullah Gul stated that the settlement of the
Armenian-Turkish relations is impossible without settling the Karabakh
issue between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Official Yerevan announced that
they do not make the relations with Turkey conditional by the Karabakh
issue. Many experts believe that this has led the process into a
deadlock.
Commenting on the Armenian-Turkish relations during a press conference
on April 10, President Serzh Sargsyan announced for the first time
that Armenia might opt out of the process of the Armenian-Turkish
negotiations. He said the reason for this is that the Turkish press
and official Ankara connect the normalization of the Armenian-Turkish
relations with genocide recognition and Karabakh settlement. "Can the
Turks, having changed their position, bring forth conditions we have
to comply with? We must not exclude the possibility of such a turn of
events. But in this case, we will opt out of the process, having
gained strength," Sargsyan said.
Against this background, on April 4 and 5 American Co-Chair of the
OSCE Minsk Group Matthew Bryza made an unplanned visit to Baku, and
his French colleague Bernard Fassier - to Yerevan and Baku. Besides,
unplanned consultations took place between heads of Foreign Ministries
of Armenia and Karabakh in the Armenian Foreign Ministry on April 3.
Armenian press published materials that stated that Armenia might opt
for settling Armenian-Turkish relations at the cost of making
concessions in the Karabakh issue.
None of the parties denies the necessity of settling the Karabakh
issue. The differences are in the ways of settling it. Turkey,
Azerbaijan and mediators insist on withdrawing Armenian armed forces
from the conflict zone, the return of the refugees and the territories
surrounding the former Nagorno-Karabakh Republic to Azerbaijan and
granting a temporary status to Karabakh. The Armenian side does not
accept this option.
"In our opinion, to create a basis for the final settlement of the
Azeri-Karabakh conflict and establish solid peace in the region it is
necessary, in the first place, that Nagorno Karabakh Republic and the
Republic of Azerbaijan sign mutual recognition and jointly reject the
attempts of military settlement of the conflict. The mutual
recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and Azerbaijan and giving up
on the military schemes must be the staring point in the negations,
not the end point," Nagorno Karabakh Foreign Minister Georgi Petrosyan
believes.
The chair of the committee on external relations of the Karabakh
parliament Vahram Atanesyan says that Karabakh's goals are clear. "We
are obliged to solve a very pragmatic task - guarantee the Karabakh
population with the acceptable form of state self-determination,
within acceptable borders, with preference of their own security
system. The Karabakh issue is a very capacious process, and no
accelerated decisions can be made here."
However, the plan of settling the Karabakh conflict, suggested by the
mediators, is apparently not to Azerbaijan's liking as well. According
to the suggested principles, Baku completely loses power over former
Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous District. This doesn't fit in with
Azerbaijan's plans. And official Ankara is helping them, announcing
about the impossibility of opening the Turkish-Armenian border before
resolving the Karabakh conflict.
"Giving such an oversensitive reaction to the seeming warming of the
Armenian-Turkish relations and expressing their readiness to use
sanctions against its strategic partner and "elder brother,"
Azerbaijan, mildly speaking, places its own reliability as an economic
partner and political ally under serious suspicion," Karabakh
political scientist Norayr Hovsepyan believes. "If we assume that the
anti-Turkish propaganda in Azerbaijan, unfolded recently, is just an
episode of a joint Turkish-Azeri scenario, then official Baku should
be given credit for playing its role brilliantly, although, the acting
as a whole, lacking exquisite diplomatic nuances, turned out to be
unconvincing. In any case, that's the impression that has shaped up in
Nagorno Karabakh, unlike Europe and Russia," the political scientist
thinks.
It is obvious that the settlement of the Karabakh issue becomes topic
number one in regional politics. There are already signs of activating
the "shuttle diplomacy" of the Minsk Group, even the EU has announced
about its readiness to assist in the settlement of the Karabakh issue,
but this has not changed the essence of the suggested principles of
settlement. And that means that the sides still remain polarized.
"It is evident that such kind of diplomacy, and, moreover,
intimidation attempts, are unable to lead to resolving the Karabakh
issue. Ignoring the current reality and mistaking the imaginary for
the real, Azerbaijan authorities are consistently pursuing
anti-Armenian policy, first of all deluding their own public. In
actuality, Turkey has special influence on Azerbaijan, and if
constructive approach is displayed, Turkey can play an important role
in resolving the conflict, convincing Azerbaijan to give up on the
unsubstantiated claims for Nagorno Karabakh," Hovsepyan says.
******************************************* ********************************
7. WEATHERING THE STORM: A COMMENTARY ON THE "HIDDEN" AND "HEAVY"
HANDS OF ARMENIAN ECONOMICS
By Richard Giragosian
In one of the most profound and long-lasting economic theories, Adam
Smith formulated the concept of the invisible or "hidden hand" to
describe the underlying process of market economic forces. In his
groundbreaking work, "The Wealth of Nations," Smith contended that
"hidden hand" of market economics was an inherently self-regulating
process, whereby an individual pursuing his own self-interest within a
market-based economy tends to promote the "public good" of the larger
community or society as a whole.
For Smith, although the concept of the hidden hand does not
necessarily seek a social order or economic justice, it nevertheless
benefits the public interest. Despite the profit-driven order of the
hidden hand, it is also opposed to monopolies or oligarchic structures
as obstacles to free trade and as threats to natural economic
development.
But the concept of the hidden hand, and its convergence of
self-interest with public interest in terms of strengthening national
economic growth, does not apply to a country like Armenia.
For Armenia, the economic concept of the hidden hand does not apply,
for two important reasons. First, there is an absence of an
underlying free market, which, in the case of Armenia, has become
dominated by powerful commodity-based cartels that have distorted
economic growth and disdained market-based competition. Second, the
potential of economic individual self-interest has been checked by the
emergence of more serious obstacles of corruption and a closed
economic system that hinders entrepreneurs and business start-ups.
In the Armenian model, the concept of the "hidden hand" has been
replaced by the concept of the "heavy hand," reflecting the power and
interference of oligarchic semi-monopolies and cartels, as well as
entrenched corruption.
The emergence of the "heavy hand" in all of the post-Soviet states has
become one of the defining characteristics of transition economies.
Yet in the case of Armenia, the "heavy hand" has also become endowed
with the destructive role of the state, in terms of both supporting
and relying on oligarchic structures.
The state's dual role in both benefiting from and bolstering the
oligarchic structures of the Armenian economy has become even more
apparent in recent weeks. For example, the Armenian state's recent
decision to extend some 20 billion drams ($54 million) in credit
guarantees to local construction firms only amplifies the
far-too-close relationship between the state and the oligarchs.
Despite the government's seemingly well-intentioned decision to
support one of the country's main drivers of economic growth, such
state aid to the construction sector --- one of the most obviously
closed sectors --- does little to ease the burden from the broader
global economic crisis.
But the contraction of the Armenia's construction industry, which over
the last several years accounted for nearly one-quarter of Armenia's
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has much less to do with any direct
effects from the global economic crisis, however, and stems more
directly from a sharp reduction in the influx of Russian investment in
this sector.
Moreover, it has been the rather opaque and dubious level of Russian
investment in Armenian construction that has helped to fuel a boom in
expensive residential and commercial building, although neither was
driven by any real domestic demand, as the low level of occupancy has
confirmed.
In fact, the contraction of Armenia's housing boom, or more
accurately, its construction "bubble," can be traced to the onset of a
financial and economic crisis in Russia, mainly because many of the
largest real estate developers in Yerevan have been individuals close
to the mayor of Moscow, reflecting both the questionable and
politically-connected nature of such Russian investment.
In this way, the Armenian state seems to be inadvertently contributing
to both sustaining an unnatural and overly-speculative "bubble" and
supporting one of the more corrupt and oligarchic sectors of the
economy.
But a related decision for state support may provide welcome relief
for home-buyers in Armenia. In large part to meet the low level of
demand for the over-supply of high-end residential property and
apartments, the Armenian Central Bank has also announced plans to
spend some 5 billion drams to create a new mortgage lending company to
facilitate housing loans to consumers on much more affordable terms,
aimed at broadening demand.
Another recent, similar example of the state aid for oligarchic
structures was the move in February to provide $10 million in new
lending to the Zangezur Copper-Molybdenum factory. Although there is
hope that this aid will ensure that the company will no longer be
forced to layoff its workers, as thousands have already lost their
jobs in the mining sector, such state support for large, generally
oligarch-owned or -operated firms is inherently dangerous for natural
economic development.
And against the backdrop of a sharp fall in international prices for
metals and minerals, it remains to be seen whether the Armenian
government can do much to weather the deeper and broader global
economic crisis that is now only more seriously impacting Armenia.
But clearly, the imperative is to weaken the "heavy hand" of Armenia's
oligarchic economics and to look instead to build on the openness and
unrestricted economics of Adam Smith's "hidden hand."
.....................................
Richard Giragosian is the director of the Yerevan-based Armenian
Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS). "Weathering
the Storm" is a weekly column exclusively for ArmeniaNow.
************************************* ***************************************
8. TIME FOR TRUTH: TURKEY RENEGED BUT PRESIDENT OBAMA MUST NOT
A commentary by Jirair Haratunian
www.aaainc.org
The Turkish government has bowed to pressure from Baku and retreated
from its earlier negotiating stance that the resolution of the Nagorno
Karabakh issue was not a precondition to restoring bilateral relations
with Armenia. The Anatolian News Agency reported that Turkey's Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told a news conference on April 10, "We
will not sign a final deal with Armenia unless there is agreement
between Azerbaijan and Armenia on Nagorno Karabakh." Armenia's Foreign
Minister Edward Nalbandian protested these Turkish assertions and said
that during the entire negotiations the Karabakh question had never
been linked with progress towards normalization of relations between
Armenia and Turkey.
Erdogan's insistence on a precondition regarding Nagorno Karabakh
effectively shuts the door on any early agreement. It dashes the
hopes that at long last Turkey would demonstrate the political will to
begin the process of normalizing relations with Armenia.
Turkish reneging will embarrass the American president. It contradicts
President Barack Obama's praise of Turkey and Armenia for the
diplomatic progress they were making to reopen their common border and
resolve their long standing problems. It also removes any pretext to
fear that an Obama reaffirmation of the Armenian Genocide will upset
the prospects for reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey. Erdogan,
himself, removed that argument.
Armenian-Americans must now redouble their efforts to insist that
President Obama move from implicitly acknowledging the Armenian
Genocide, as he did in Turkey, to explicitly and unambiguously
reaffirming of the historical truth of the Armenian Genocide.
Obama's reputation is at stake. His credibility as an honest leader
whose word is his bond will be lost if he too reneges.
But beyond an American affirmation of the Armenian Genocide, it is
equally important for Washington to condemn Turkey's regression in the
process that began when Turkish President Abdullah Gul visited Yerevan
in response to President Serzh Sargsyan's football diplomacy
initiative.
Until a few weeks ago there were expectations that a breakthrough was
imminent. There was public speculation that an agreement might be
announced while Obama was in Turkey, or perhaps when Turkish Foreign
Minister Ali Babacan attends the Black Sea Economic Conference (BSEC)
later this month in Yerevan. One time line has passed without an
agreement, and clearly the other will as well.
This failure also portends new roadblocks in the diplomatic efforts to
resolve the Nagorno Karabakh problem, as it will embolden Baku to
resist any compromise.
Ironically, recent American actions held out hope for progress on both
the Nagorno Karabakh diplomatic front and Turkish Armenian relations.
President Obama met privately with Foreign Minister Nalbandian in
Istanbul and then convened a meeting with the foreign ministers of
Armenia, Turkey, and Switzerland. Apparently the Swiss were prompted
to act as follow-up conciliators. Obama also telephoned Azerbaijan's
President Ilham Aliyev from Istanbul urging progress on the Nagorno
Karabakh issue and the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border.
Obama's meetings in Istanbul were preceded by other important
Washington initiatives. It was reported that Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton had earlier telephoned President Sargsyan and a
personal letter had been delivered to the Armenian government by U.S.
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza.
It is a pity that all this effort might be for naught. Ankara has
missed a unique opportunity to become a positive force in the troubled
region on its eastern border. It also causes President Obama's hope
that Turkey can face the dark pages of its history to ring hollow. If
Turkey cannot withstand the displeasure of Azerbaijan in the matter of
opening its border with Armenia, it can hardly be relied on to
overcome regressive Turkish nationalists who oppose any concessions on
relations with Armenia or the Nagorno Karabakh problem.
It is now up to Washington to challenge Ankara by making it clear that
despite President Obama's expressed hopes, Turkey cannot be a bridge
between the West and East so long as it blockades Armenia and retains
its unconscionable denial of the Armenian Genocide.
*************************************** ***********************************
9. WELCOME BACK: A NEW MIGRATION CENTER WILL PROMOTE ARMENIAN IMMIGRANTS
By Naira Bulghadaryan
ArmeniaNow Vanadzor reporter
Provincial migration information centers have opened in Armenia to
assist Armenians illegally living in European countries to settle in a
new environment upon return to their homeland. The centers opened from
the beginning of April in 4 provinces - Lori, Shirak, Gegharkunik,
Kotayk, and in Yerevan and will assist Armenians who have returned
from European countries, as well as to give advice on legal settlement
for those who are emigrating to European countries.
The activity of the provincial migration information centers is
managed by People In Need (PIN) Czech organization.
The centers were opened within the framework of the program
"Cooperation between countries of migration and third countries
providing shelter," which PIN implements jointly with the Armenian
Association of United Nations Organization.
"In the conditions of the growing economic crisis in European
countries, the situation of the Armenians illegally residing there
will become worse. That is why our centers will help them not to lose
hope upon returning to their home country, and to be able to adjust to
Armenian reality," says Galust Nanyan, PR person of the Armenian
branch of PIN.
"The centers will aid the governmental and non-governmental
organizations to control migration flows - involving the Armenian
Diaspora to prevent out-migration," Nanyan believes.
He assures the program will make it possible for the Armenians who
found shelter in foreign lands not only to return to their homeland,
but also to get help settling down and starting their own business.
According to the program's estimates, about 1,000 have expressed a
wish to return.
The provincial migration information centers have already started
work, waiting for immigrants.
Vanadzor provincial migration center, which was re-opened in Vanadzor
office of the Helsinki Civil Assembly defending human rights, has
already given legal advice to those who wish to emigrate to the
Russian federation. The center coordinator, lawyer Araik Zalyan says
that the applicants wanted to find out about the legal ways of leaving
for the Russian Federation and working there.
Apart from providing legal advice, Vanadzor center and others will
make it possible for those who have moved from abroad to Armenia to
set up their own businesses.
The migration center will provide up to 4,000 Euros worth of furniture
or equipment to those who volunteer to return to their homeland - to
facilitate their new businesses. This will help the returnees and
their families to settle in Armenia, without thinking about going
back.
"A person may want to open up a store or start a business in another
sphere, we will support them within that amount," says lawyer Zalyan,
who will also provide legal support.
For instance, he will help them to resolve the legal issues related to
their settling in Armenia. Vandzor migation center will also help the
citizens who have been away for many years and do not speak Armenian
or Russian.
"We will cooperate with schools to arrange Armenian and Russian
classes for them," Zalyan says.
In the conditions of economic crisis, RA migration agency cooperates
with various interantional organizations to bring Armenian citizens
back from European countries, as well as to prevent out-migtaion.
During the "Program to support RA citizens returning from Switzerland"
implemeted until the end of last year 22 families returned from
Switzerland to Aremnia: a total of 52 people in 4 years.
Six families that have returned to their homelnad were given loans to
set up small businesses. The loans were used to grow mushrooms, to
breed cattle, to make furniture, to preserve fresh fruit and
vegetables and to do trade. They received psychological, medical and
social support and some were given jobs.
Migration information centers will function until 2011.
RA Regional Management Ministry's Migration Agency statistics show
that the number of those arriving in Armenia is smaller than that of
the people leaving the country. 83,691 people came back, while about
3,000 more left.
******************************************** ********************************
10. CARE AND CONCERN: CARITAS LIGHTS EMPTY LIVES OF ELDERLY
By Naira Bulghadaryan
ArmeniaNow Vanadzor reporter
Vera Grigoryan eagerly waits for Naira every Tuesday. She takes small
steps to walk to the building entrance, leans on her cane and stares
at the steps below.
Tuesday is the only day of the week that fills the emptiness of the 81
year old for a couple of hours. On that day, social worker Naira
Mkhitaryan comes, and cleans Vera's small apartment and cooks for her.
Vera is one of the 45 beneficiaries of the "Armenian Caritas" charity
organization that helps elderly and lonely people in Vanadzor.
Care for the elderly people is not realized in Armenia at the state
level. The current project for the elderly is, I fact, being
implemented by an international organization. It covers three
provinces of Armenia - Lori, Shirak and Gegharkunik. As for the other
provinces of the country, then their elderly residents having no
children or being abandoned remain without care.
"Home care for the elderly people of Vanadzor" project has been
functioning in Vanadzor for two years now. It aims at taking care of
the older people who either have no children and or have been
abandoned by their families. One hundred elderly in Vanadzor are
involved in the project, but only 45 get social workers' assistance at
home.
"These are the people who are helpless, it's hard for them to move
around, they cannot do housework, they are unable to do the shopping
or pay utilities," Hasmik Hovsepyan, Vanadzor coordinator of the
project explains.
The organization helps (thÅ other) 55 people who can take care of
themselves, but are sick and lonely, as well as the old people who get
healthcare services at home; it provides drugs, clothing and dry food
packages, social, psychological, legal advice and assistance and in
signing up for social benefits.
Each of the three social workers in the program visits 15 elderly; one
per week. Two nurses in the program visit 6-8 clients per day for
checkups.
"A nurse came yesterday and she gave me this medicine," Vera says as
she tells about her maladies, "I have high blood pressure, my joints
ache - I cannot walk properly, and I cannot sleep well at night."
Vera had been married twice, but she was unhappy both times - both her
husbands died. Her only child also died at the age of 7.
"I have been so foolish not to have a second child," the old woman says.
She has no relatives in Vanadzor - they are spread all over. Her only
"relative" is the social worker Nara Mkhitaryan.
"Nara makes my work easier, my house stays clean for a few days, and
she cooks for me. And I bother my neighbors for 2-3 days, not the
whole week," Vera says.
After the social worker leaves, the old woman looks forward to next
Tuesday - sometimes she has guests, and sometimes she visits her
next-door neighbors.
"It's hard to while away the day," Vera says. Her TV is broken, so
sometimes she goes to a neighbor's house to watch programs.
"Loneliness is not a good thing," Vera says.
Ophelia Grigoryan, who shares a similar fate, cries every day.
The 81-year old woman cannot remember any longer for how long she has
been alone. Her husband and her two children died long ago. "I woke up
in the morning and saw that my child's eyes were open and not moving -
he was dead." And after the death of her 2.5-year old son, her 8-month
old daughter died as well.
"If only I had a child, if only I weren't lonely," she says through
her tears, "This woman is here to take care of us," she says about
Lena Ghazaryan, the social worker who takes care of her.
Ghazaryan was sewing a blanket for her at the time.
"Go and stir the dinner, my dear Lena, it may spill over." Although
she cannot cook or tidy the house herself, she still can give advice.
About 19 percent of the 283.000 residents of Lori province - 52,997
people - are pensioners.
There are no day-care centers for elderly in the province. There is a
private elderly house in Vanadzor, and a private charity canteen.
"Armenian Caritas" envisages taking care of 100 elderly people in
Vanadzor until 2011. At the same time, the organization is getting
ready to submit proposals for the 4-year development program of Lori
province for 2009-2011, involving RA government in the process of
taking care of the elderly.
Head of the Welfare Department of Lori Rural Administration Body
Valery Jaghinyan also intends to make proposals for the 4-year
development program of Lori province for 2009-2011, the proposals are
aimed at taking care of elderly people not at elderly houses or
boarding houses, but at home.
"Taking care of them in their own environment is not only inexpensive,
but also convenient for the elderly people themselves," Jaghinyan
says.
********************************* *******************************************
11. SPORT: CUP SEMIFINALS IN SOCCER; ARMENIAN WEIGHTLIFTING TEAM FIFTH
IN EUROPE
By Suren Musayelyan
ArmeniaNow reporter
Soccer
In the first-leg semifinal matches of the Armenian Cup tournament
midweek, FC Ulis Yerevan lost to FC Pyunik Yerevan 1-3, while FC Mika
Ashtarak playing at home was held to a 1-1 draw by FC Banants Yerevan.
The second-leg games are scheduled to be played on April 21 and 22.
Meanwhile, in the championship FC Pyunik Yerevan and FC Mika Ashtarak
appear to have broken away from the group after registering victories
over Kilikia (1-0) and Ararat (2-0) in the third round of matches last
weekend.
Both clubs have earned maximum points in their three matches and are 3
points clear from second-placed FC Banants Yerevan.
FC Ararat Yerevan and FC Gandzasar Kapan share the bottom position and
yet look to pick their first points.
In the fourth round of play this weekend Ararat will host Pyunik and
Mika will entertain Banants, Ulis play Shirak and Kilikia play
Gandzasar.
(Source: Armenian Football Federation ffa.am)
Weightlifting
Team Armenia finished fifth in the overall team rankings at the
European weightlifting championships in Bucharest, Romania, held on
April 3-12. Armenian athletes won one gold and two silver medals
thanks to Arakel Mirzoyan (69 kg) among men and Nazik Avdalyan (69 kg)
and Hripsime Khurshudyan (75 kg) among women.
The top team in the rankings is Russia (having a collection of five
gold, one silver and six bronze medals), followed by Turkey, Ukraine
and Belarus. (Sources: Regnum.ru, www.iwf.net)
Chess
Armenian GM Karen Movsisian scored 7 points of 9 and took 4th place in
the open which was held in La Roda, Spain. Movsisian was only half a
point behind the tournament winners GM Mihai Suba (Romania) and GM
Salvador Del Rio De Angelis (Spain). The tournament had brought
together more than 200 chess players.
Meanwhile, Armenian grandmasters Levon Aronyan and Vladimir Hakobyan
are taking part in the fourth FIDE Grand Prix series tournament in
Nalchik, Russia. The tournament runs from 15 to 30 April. Among their
opponents are GMs Peter Leko (Hungary), Alexander Grischuk (Russia),
Vassily Ivanchuk (Ukraine), Boris Gelfand (Israel), Etienne Bacrot
(France), Peter Svidler (Russia), Shakhriyar Mamedyarov (Azerbaijan),
Sergey Karjakin (Ukraine), Gata Kamsky (USA) and others.
In his opening game, Aronyan beat Azerbaijan's Mamedyarov playing with
black pieces, while Hakobyan drew against Uzbekistan's Rustam
Kasymzhanov. The two Armenian grandmasters played each other on the
second day of the tournament and Aronyan achieved a victory with white
pieces.
On Friday, Aronyan was scheduled to play Grischuk (with white pieces)
and Hakobyan was to play Mamedyarov (with black).
Sources: (www.armchess; http://nalchik2009.fide.com)