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Armenia: Did President Sargsyan Blaze A Trail To The Sea Via Iran?

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  • Armenia: Did President Sargsyan Blaze A Trail To The Sea Via Iran?

    ARMENIA: DID PRESIDENT SARGSYAN BLAZE A TRAIL TO THE SEA VIA IRAN?
    Haroutiun Khachatrian

    Eurasianet
    http://www.eurasianet.org
    April 15, 2009

    Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan's two-day visit to Iran produced
    a potential breakthrough deal that could ease Armenia's economic
    isolation.

    Sargsyan and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad signed eight
    agreements during the Armenian leader's two-day stay in Tehran on
    April 13-14. Two of those pacts stand to give a big boost to Armenian
    foreign trade. The first provides a blueprint for the construction
    of a 470-kilometer railroad between the two countries and the second
    would lower Iranian trade barriers to Armenian exports.

    At present, Armenia's only viable overland routes to the outside world
    run through Georgia. That conduit has proven unreliable for Yerevan in
    recent years, though, given the long-running tension between Russia and
    Georgia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Turkey and
    Azerbaijan currently maintain an economic blockade against Armenia,
    and although there has been much talk lately of a re-opening of the
    Turkish-Armenian frontier, the normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties,
    as well as a political settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, do
    not appear imminent. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

    The proposed outlet to Iran would not bring immediate economic
    benefits to Armenia. Under terms of an agreement finalized April
    15 by the transport ministers of Armenia and Iran, construction of
    the railway would take an estimated five years, and cost upwards of
    $1.8 billion. The first stage of the construction process involves
    a feasibility study, which is due to be completed by the end of
    the summer.

    Almost seven-eighths of the railway would lie on Armenian territory,
    stretching from the northern city of Sevan to Meghri on the Iranian
    border. The question of financing evidently was not addressed during
    Sargsyan's Iran visit.

    In another potentially significant deal, the two countries agreed
    to cooperation on the construction of a hydropower station on the
    Arax River.

    One political analyst, Garnik Asatrian, an Iranian studies expert
    at the Yerevan State University, characterized President Sargsyan's
    visit as a "historic step" for Armenia. But other experts were more
    circumspect. The global economic downturn, they emphasized, makes
    it impossible to say whether promises made today can be fulfilled
    tomorrow. Alexander Iskandarian, the director of the Caucasus
    Institute in Yerevan, pointed out that already some erstwhile
    financial heavyweights in the Caucasus, especially Russia, are now
    finding it difficult to come up with the cash to meet assistance
    obligations. "Some previously adopted programs are now short of money,"
    he told EurasiaNet.

    Sevak Sarykhanan, an expert with the Noravank Foundation, a
    Yerevan-based think tank, suggested that the Iranian rail project is,
    in effect, an insurance policy for Yerevan. If the Turkish-Armenian
    border reopens in the near future, then Yerevan would have rail access
    to the Middle East and Gulf regions via the existing Gyumri-Kars rail
    link. In that case, the Sevan-Meghri-Iran rail route would not make
    financial sense.

    Editor's Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a freelance writer based
    in Yerevan.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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