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Turkey Is Missing Yet Another Opportunity With Armenia

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  • Turkey Is Missing Yet Another Opportunity With Armenia

    TURKEY IS MISSING YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY WITH ARMENIA
    Vartan Oskanian

    Daily Star
    April 23 2009
    Lebanon

    The onetime Israeli foreign minister, Abba Eban, used to say of
    the Palestinians that they never missed an opportunity to miss an
    opportunity. Turkey, sadly, seems to be falling into that same habit
    in its relations with Armenia. And, as with Palestine, failure to
    act only breeds wider regional instability. In the two weeks before
    US President Barack Obama's recent visit to Turkey, there was almost
    universal optimism that Turkey would open its border with Armenia. But
    Obama came and went, and the border remained close.

    Turkish-Armenian relations remain more about gestures than
    substance. Indeed, Turkish President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister
    Recep Tayyip Erdogan's dismissive recent statements hint that Turkey
    may even be backtracking on its plans to establish more normal
    bilateral ties.

    Those ties have been strained since 1993, when Turkey closed its border
    with Armenia in solidarity with Azerbaijan in the Armenian-Azerbaijani
    conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. When Erdogan and Gul came to power
    in 2003, nothing changed. The border stayed closed.

    In my first meeting with Gul, who was Turkey's foreign minister
    in 2003, he acknowledged that Turkey had not benefited from its
    policy of linking Armenia-Turkey relations to a resolution of the
    Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict. Turkey, he said, wanted to establish
    normal bilateral relations with all neighbors. That was music to my
    ears, and I told him so.

    But Azerbaijani pressure prevailed, and Turkish policy did not
    change. Of course, at that time, Turkey's own interests were not
    what they are today. Accession talks with the European Union had not
    begun; Turkey wanted an oil pipeline from Azerbaijan; the resolution
    condemning the Armenian genocide had not gathered steam around the
    world; Turkey's economy was not in crisis; and Georgia-Russia tensions
    were not in a free-fall.

    Today, the world is so different that even Russia and the United States
    agree about opening the Turkish-Armenian border. Indeed, in the face
    of Russia-Georgia strains, Turkey can benefit from a new role in the
    Caucasus. Its proposed "Platform for Cooperation and Security in the
    Caucasus" is a first step. And public opinion in Turkey is more ready
    than ever for a rapprochement with Armenia.

    Such a move would make Europe happy, too. Although Erdogan likes to
    call Turkey a natural bridge between East and West, Europe is waiting
    for Turkey to assume the function that geography has bestowed upon
    it. As for Azerbaijan, now that a pipeline from Baku to the Turkish
    port of Ceyhan is operational, Azerbaijan needs Turkey more than
    Turkey needs Azerbaijan.

    And, this month, Turkey has a deadline. Obama committed himself during
    his presidential election campaign to calling the violence against
    the Armenians in the Ottoman Empire by its name - genocide. The
    anniversary of those events is April 24.

    One would think that these developments provide Turkey with a great
    opportunity to act in its own best interests and open its border with
    Armenia. But Turkey has already missed two such opportunities. The
    collapse of the Soviet Union was the right time to establish
    diplomatic relations with Armenia. Turkey did not, instead offering
    mere recognition of Armenia's independence. No functioning relationship
    could come from that.

    Then, in 2004, with the beginning of EU accession talks, Turkey had
    ample cause to explain to Azerbaijan why improved relations with
    Armenia were inevitable. It did not do so, allowing the opportunity
    slip away.

    History is now offering Turkey a third chance to play a greater
    regional role. By actually opening borders, or at least announcing a
    real date and actual modalities, Turkey would open doors to a shared
    future. But Gul and Erdogan are signaling that they cannot. Before
    Obama made it back to Washington, they forcefully and repeatedly
    announced - presumably to appease Azerbaijan - that they would not act
    to open the border until the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was resolved.

    But Turkey and Azerbaijan are wrong. Keeping the border closed will not
    solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. On the contrary, an open border
    would facilitate resolution of the conflict - not because it would be a
    tradeoff for something else, or come with strings attached, but because
    an open border demonstrates evenhandedness towards all neighbors.

    An open border between Armenia and Turkey would mean that Azerbaijan
    could not shirk negotiations. My grandmother from Marash would have
    said that Azerbaijan today believes that, with Turkey, it "has an
    uncle in the jury," and thus that it can persist in its petulance
    and intransigence.

    An environment of compromise requires a regional environment devoid
    of threats and blackmail. Without Turkey tipping the scale for the
    benefit of one side in this conflict, both sides must become more
    accommodating, especially on security issues. The Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict is about security. Armenia, sandwiched between two
    hostile states, is unlikely and unable to agree to security
    compromises. Closing a border is an act of hostility. Opening that
    border would mean creating a normal regional environment.

    History is offering Turkey the opportunity to take regional relations
    to a new level. Symbols and gestures are insufficient. And waiting
    for a Nagorno-Karabakh solution is no solution at all. It is merely
    one more missed opportunity.

    Vartan Oskanian, president of the board of the Yerevan-based Civilitas
    Foundation, was Armenia's foreign minister from 1998 to 2008. THE
    DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project
    Syndicate (c) (www.project-syndicate.org).
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