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Armenia Has Good Chances To Become A Central Force In The Region

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  • Armenia Has Good Chances To Become A Central Force In The Region

    ARMENIA HAS GOOD CHANCES TO BECOME A CENTRAL FORCE IN THE REGION

    PanARMENIAN.Net
    28.04.2009 15:25 GMT+04:00

    The route map on Armenian-Turkish ties normalization has given rise to
    various reactions in public, political and analytical circles. However,
    to obtain a more comprehensive and accurate picture, it is necessary to
    reduce the emotional component, David Babayan, a political scientist
    from Karabakh, writes in an article entitled "Armenian Turkish
    geo-politics: real situation and perspectives".

    The political scientist finds that domestic policy requires sober
    approach to different problems. "It doesn't mean that the emotional
    component should be absolutely ignored in politics, because this is
    a kind of immune system for the nation; once it's lost, the state
    may find itself in a very complicated situation," the article says.

    According to Babayan, if Turkism becomes a principal trend in Turkey's
    policy, it will produce a direct impact on the country's multi-million
    Kurdish population whose native land, by the way, was adjacent to the
    South Caucasian region. "Turkism will arouse serious concerns among
    Kurds and seriously impact their policy."

    Clearly, Turkey will have to compensate the existing dissatisfaction
    and distrust by proposing a national ideology capable of ensuring
    stability and internal self-satisfaction in Turkish public. The only
    way to achieve that is to pursue the Islam religion. Actually, by
    attacking Israel, Ankara has officially recognized Islamic religion
    as its national ideology. In view of Turkey's more active role in the
    South Caucasus, especially, the combination of Turkism and Islamist
    religion, Armenia is assuming an increasingly important role for
    Georgia, Iran, Israel and the Arab world. Armenia has good chances
    for becoming a central force in the region.

    Studying the Armenian-Turkish geopolitics, we are confronted the
    following question: what's the price of that? "If Ankara proposes
    the Azerbaijani scenario of Karabakh settlement as a precondition
    (i.e. the de-facto and step-by-step partition of Artsakh), then,
    all the possibilities becoming a central force will vanish. The
    loss of Artsakh is fraught with an overwhelming shock, leading to
    the collapse of the nation. Such scenario is certainly unacceptable,
    especially considering that Ankara will hardly insist on its previous
    statement on the Armenian-Turkish ties normalization being a parallel
    process with Karabakh settlement. The country is now required to
    enter Tran Caucasus and establish firm positions in any part of the
    region except Azerbaijan. Only in that case can Turkey resort to
    other methods. But if we conduct a balanced and well-reasoned policy,
    we'll really manage to attain desired results," he noted.
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