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WHY ARTSAKH MATTERS TO THE WEST AND RUSSIA
By David Boyajian
Armeniapedia
http://www.keghart.com/node /550
Aug 7, 2009
On April 12th 2009 Tigran, a reader of Keghart, in a comment entitled
"In Vain..." stated, "We have to accept the unfortunate fact that
Armenia doesn't have the same resources nor the same importance
as its two neighbours do. We are a landlocked country, surrounded
by two vicious and criminal nations who are being backed by similar
countries... Until a miracle happens and our chances and luck improve,
the only thing we should be doing is trying to survive the situation
and make our fight only for the acceptance of the Genocide and nothing
else for the moment. Hopefully, their turn will come and they will
be begging for our help against the Turks!"
David Boyajian, in response, had the following to say, "Dear Tigran:
Sadly, like too many Armenians, you do not seem to understand that
Armenia (and Artsakh) are tremendously important to the West due to the
fact that, aside from Georgia, which is unstable and under pressure,
it is the only way into and out of the Caucasus that avoids Russia
and Iran. The West knows this very well. Armenia is in a unique and
very powerful position. Russia must also know that without Armenia,
its entire southern tier, from the Caucasus to Central Asia, will
fall to NATO, and Russia will be ripe for the picking.
Please read this article, "Why Artsakh M atters to the West and
Russia".
Since the Russian-Georgian war (2008), the announcement of "the
Roadmap" (April 2009) and the Madrid Principles (July 2009) some
geopolitical considerations have changed, but David Boyajian's
principal arguments about the importance of Armenia and Artsakh for
the West and Russia remain valid.
The article penned by him, originally published in Armenia Life USA
on 8th June 2007, and later reproduced in Armeniapedia is brought to
the attention of the readers.
A surprising number of people seem to believe that the West couldn't
care less whether the longstanding Artsakh (Karabagh) conflict
is solved.
That notion may stem partly from the West's habit of playing down
legitimate Armenian concerns and boosting the interests of Azerbaijan
and Turkey. Sadly, some Armenians who should know better seem to have
bought into the lie.
The fact is that the US and NATO attach great importance to an Artsakh
peace accord. By the same token, Russia - though it won't say so
publicly - apparently does not presently favor such an agreement.
What would be the results of an Artsakh accord?
The West's Dream
The border between Armenia and Azerbaijan would certainly open. Various
kinds of trade would follow.
Turkey might also open its border with Armenia. That is uncertain,
however, because Turkey could insist on additional conditions, such
as Armenia's dr opping the genocide issue.
Yet even if Turkey's border with Armenia were to remain shut, there
is always Turkey's 6-mile border with Azerbaijan's Nakhichevan enclave.
That by itself would connect Azerbaijan proper to Turkey, via
Azerbaijan's open border with southern Armenia [see the author's
"Meghri: The Pan-Turkish Superhighway and Other Wrong Turns" on
Armeniapedia.org].
One way or the other, an Artsakh peace could fulfill the West's dream:
a route from Azerbaijan and the oil and gas rich Caspian Sea region,
through Armenia and Turkey, to Europe.
The West desires an Armenian route because currently the sole way
into and out of Azerbaijan runs through Georgia, which continues to
be under heavy economic, political, and even military pressure by
Russia. Alternative routes through Russia or Iran are, of course,
unacceptable to Washington.
Were Moscow to actually succeed in shutting off Georgia from the West
- a possibility, though it would spark a major confrontation with
Washington - Armenia would become the only path into the Caucasus. But,
again, a prerequisite for all this is a solution to Artsakh.
For many of the same reasons, Russia does not presently want an
Artsakh pact.
Russia's Nightmare
The Kremlin, of course, regards the Caucasus as being within its
traditional sphere of influence. It wants near exclusive control over
Caspian resources.
Therefore, Russia does not wish Armenia to become, like Georgia,
yet another route for oil and gas pipelines from the Caspian to Turkey.
How do we know that Russia is satisfied with the status quo in Artsakh?
Because for the past decade or more, Moscow has evidently applied
no pressure on Yerevan or Baku to come to an agreement. Moreover,
we have never heard Moscow ask Ankara to open the border with Armenia.
No, the very thought of NATO's using Armenia to penetrate the Caucasus
gives the Kremlin nightmares. The longer the Artsakh conflict remains
frozen, the sounder Russian leaders sleep.
Hidden Reasons
You may wonder why, if it's trying to penetrate the Caucasus,
Washington has applied little, if any, pressure on Turkey to open
its border with Armenia. A likely reason is that Washington feels
that the closed border exerts pressure on Yerevan to first sign an
agreement with Baku. Washington won't come right out and say that
because it would cause a furor in the US Congress and Yerevan.
An additional reason Washington wants an Artsakh peace agreement is
that a renewal of war would endanger the outflow of Azeri oil and
gas to the West.
For the very same reason, a war might actually please Moscow.
To believe that Armenia and Artsakh, even in view of all their
problems, are unimportant to the world's major powers is to sell
ourselves short and to misunderstand the political dynamics of
the region.
Armenia is still the most stable country in the Caucasus. The US
has not built a huge embassy in Armenia for nothing. Russia does not
regard Armenia as a strategic ally for no reason.
The real challenge is to understand and leverage Armenia and Artsakh's
importance.
By David Boyajian
Armeniapedia
http://www.keghart.com/node /550
Aug 7, 2009
On April 12th 2009 Tigran, a reader of Keghart, in a comment entitled
"In Vain..." stated, "We have to accept the unfortunate fact that
Armenia doesn't have the same resources nor the same importance
as its two neighbours do. We are a landlocked country, surrounded
by two vicious and criminal nations who are being backed by similar
countries... Until a miracle happens and our chances and luck improve,
the only thing we should be doing is trying to survive the situation
and make our fight only for the acceptance of the Genocide and nothing
else for the moment. Hopefully, their turn will come and they will
be begging for our help against the Turks!"
David Boyajian, in response, had the following to say, "Dear Tigran:
Sadly, like too many Armenians, you do not seem to understand that
Armenia (and Artsakh) are tremendously important to the West due to the
fact that, aside from Georgia, which is unstable and under pressure,
it is the only way into and out of the Caucasus that avoids Russia
and Iran. The West knows this very well. Armenia is in a unique and
very powerful position. Russia must also know that without Armenia,
its entire southern tier, from the Caucasus to Central Asia, will
fall to NATO, and Russia will be ripe for the picking.
Please read this article, "Why Artsakh M atters to the West and
Russia".
Since the Russian-Georgian war (2008), the announcement of "the
Roadmap" (April 2009) and the Madrid Principles (July 2009) some
geopolitical considerations have changed, but David Boyajian's
principal arguments about the importance of Armenia and Artsakh for
the West and Russia remain valid.
The article penned by him, originally published in Armenia Life USA
on 8th June 2007, and later reproduced in Armeniapedia is brought to
the attention of the readers.
A surprising number of people seem to believe that the West couldn't
care less whether the longstanding Artsakh (Karabagh) conflict
is solved.
That notion may stem partly from the West's habit of playing down
legitimate Armenian concerns and boosting the interests of Azerbaijan
and Turkey. Sadly, some Armenians who should know better seem to have
bought into the lie.
The fact is that the US and NATO attach great importance to an Artsakh
peace accord. By the same token, Russia - though it won't say so
publicly - apparently does not presently favor such an agreement.
What would be the results of an Artsakh accord?
The West's Dream
The border between Armenia and Azerbaijan would certainly open. Various
kinds of trade would follow.
Turkey might also open its border with Armenia. That is uncertain,
however, because Turkey could insist on additional conditions, such
as Armenia's dr opping the genocide issue.
Yet even if Turkey's border with Armenia were to remain shut, there
is always Turkey's 6-mile border with Azerbaijan's Nakhichevan enclave.
That by itself would connect Azerbaijan proper to Turkey, via
Azerbaijan's open border with southern Armenia [see the author's
"Meghri: The Pan-Turkish Superhighway and Other Wrong Turns" on
Armeniapedia.org].
One way or the other, an Artsakh peace could fulfill the West's dream:
a route from Azerbaijan and the oil and gas rich Caspian Sea region,
through Armenia and Turkey, to Europe.
The West desires an Armenian route because currently the sole way
into and out of Azerbaijan runs through Georgia, which continues to
be under heavy economic, political, and even military pressure by
Russia. Alternative routes through Russia or Iran are, of course,
unacceptable to Washington.
Were Moscow to actually succeed in shutting off Georgia from the West
- a possibility, though it would spark a major confrontation with
Washington - Armenia would become the only path into the Caucasus. But,
again, a prerequisite for all this is a solution to Artsakh.
For many of the same reasons, Russia does not presently want an
Artsakh pact.
Russia's Nightmare
The Kremlin, of course, regards the Caucasus as being within its
traditional sphere of influence. It wants near exclusive control over
Caspian resources.
Therefore, Russia does not wish Armenia to become, like Georgia,
yet another route for oil and gas pipelines from the Caspian to Turkey.
How do we know that Russia is satisfied with the status quo in Artsakh?
Because for the past decade or more, Moscow has evidently applied
no pressure on Yerevan or Baku to come to an agreement. Moreover,
we have never heard Moscow ask Ankara to open the border with Armenia.
No, the very thought of NATO's using Armenia to penetrate the Caucasus
gives the Kremlin nightmares. The longer the Artsakh conflict remains
frozen, the sounder Russian leaders sleep.
Hidden Reasons
You may wonder why, if it's trying to penetrate the Caucasus,
Washington has applied little, if any, pressure on Turkey to open
its border with Armenia. A likely reason is that Washington feels
that the closed border exerts pressure on Yerevan to first sign an
agreement with Baku. Washington won't come right out and say that
because it would cause a furor in the US Congress and Yerevan.
An additional reason Washington wants an Artsakh peace agreement is
that a renewal of war would endanger the outflow of Azeri oil and
gas to the West.
For the very same reason, a war might actually please Moscow.
To believe that Armenia and Artsakh, even in view of all their
problems, are unimportant to the world's major powers is to sell
ourselves short and to misunderstand the political dynamics of
the region.
Armenia is still the most stable country in the Caucasus. The US
has not built a huge embassy in Armenia for nothing. Russia does not
regard Armenia as a strategic ally for no reason.
The real challenge is to understand and leverage Armenia and Artsakh's
importance.