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    INTELLIGENCE AND TERRORISM INFORMATION CENTER

    docstalk.blogspot.com
    Aug 18, 2009

    Last weekend, Iran 's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was forced to
    give in to the demands of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and cancel the
    controversial appointment of his first vice president, Esfandiar
    Rahim Masha'i. In a decree issued by Khamenei, the Supreme Leader
    noted that the appointment of Masha'i was against the president's
    best interest and the government's interest, that it would cause
    division and frustration among his supporters, and that it had to be
    cancelled immediately. Consequently, Masha'i sent the president of
    Iran a letter saying that he no longer considered himself the first
    vice president. In his reply, Ahmadinejad said that he accepted the
    resignation, expressing his deepest respect to Masha'i (Mehr, July
    25). Shortly thereafter, Ahmadinejad appointed Masha'i his advisor
    and office chief. President Ahmadinejad sent a letter to Khamenei
    telling him that his instructions had been carried out.

    Masha'i's appointment as vice president was cancelled after a week
    of intense pressure exerted on Iran's president-even by his close
    associates-to reconsider the appointment. The pressure seemed to
    have no effect when the president announced last week that he was
    not willing to reconsider Masha'i's appointment as his first vice
    president. Ahmadinejad defended his own decision to appoint Masha'i,
    saying that he was one of the most dedicated, loyal, and creative
    executives in the country, and that therefore there was no reason
    not to let him serve his country. In a conversation with journalists
    the president said that if Masha'i's critics had known him better,
    they would have changed their minds (Press TV, July 22). It should
    be noted that Masha'i and Ahmadinejad are in-laws: the president's
    daughter is married to Masha'i's son.

    The president would not reconsider even when Iran 's media published
    reports about the Supreme Leader's objection to the appointment. His
    insistence only intensified the criticism aimed at him, which was
    even reflected in the last Friday sermon, when the Friday sermon
    preacher, conservative cleric Ahmad Khatami, expressed his hope that
    the president would change his mind about the decision to appoint
    Masha'i as his vice president.

    The strong opposition from the conservative bloc to the appointment
    of Masha'i, who was the vice president in charge of cultural heritage
    and tourism affairs in Ahmadinejad's previous government, stemmed
    to a great extent from a statement made by Masha'i several months
    ago about Iran being a friend of all the nations in the world,
    including the nation of Israel . At the time, that statement caused
    a considerable uproar in Iran , even though Masha'i explained that
    he did not recognize the State of Israel and he only referred to the
    residents of Palestine , not to "Zionists". Masha'i drew opposition
    from the conservative bloc also because of other incidents in which
    he had been involved; for example, several years ago he took part in
    a tourism convention in Turkey which included a performance of female
    dancers dressed in revealing clothing.

    Masha'i's promotion to first vice president was therefore met with
    fierce opposition not only from the president's supporters but
    also from top conservative clerics. Senior cleric Ayatollah Nasser
    Makarem-Shirazi went as far as to issue a religious ruling saying
    that Masha'i's appointment was illegitimate and had to be cancelled
    as soon as possible. Even Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor-in-chief
    of the daily Keyhan and one of the president's staunch supporters,
    published an article criticizing Ahmadinejad's decision to appoint
    Masha'i as his vice president (July 19). The article says that the
    president's supporters, those who worked for his reelection, expected
    him to honor the 25 million civilians who had voted for him. Masha'i's
    appointment as first vice president was a shock and a cause for concern
    for all the president's voters, who rightfully believed that not only
    was the president making a bad decision, but he was also ignoring
    the people. In light of Masha'i's controversial views, it could have
    been expected that Ahmadinejad would relieve him of his position as
    the vice president in charge of historical legacy and tourism affairs;
    unfortunately, however, not only did the president not dismiss Masha'i,
    he even decided to promote him to first vice president. Even though
    the president has the authority to appoint his vice president, that
    position belongs to the people. The president may of course maintain
    his personal relations with Masha'i, but he must cancel his appointment
    as vice president, writes Shariatmadari.

    Even Iran 's Chief of Staff Hassan Firouzabadi addressed the Masha'i
    affair and said in a meeting with top commanders that the instructions
    of the Supreme Leader must be followed to the letter. Referring to
    the decree issued by Khamenei, Firouzabadi appealed to the president
    saying that the Iranian people expected him to obey the Supreme Leader
    and act in accordance with his instructions (news agencies, July 25).

    It is not the first time differences of opinion arise between President
    Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Khamenei. For example, several months
    ago the media reported tensions between the two leaders over the
    president's decision to assign responsibility for the issue of Iranian
    pilgrims to Iran 's Cultural Heritage and Tourism Organization. The
    decision triggered harsh criticism from the president's opponents,
    claiming he was going against the Supreme Leader's views. The Supreme
    Leader also expressed reservations about Ahmadinejad's April 2006
    decision to let women into soccer stadiums. In those two cases, the
    president was also forced to back down from his original decision
    and accept the ruling of the Supreme Leader.

    One week before the end of the government's tenure: Ahmadinejad
    dismissed the ministers of Intelligence and Islamic Guidance This
    week, only eight days before the end of his first government's
    tenure, President Ahmadinejad dismissed Islamic Guidance
    Minister Mohammad-Hossein Saffar Harandi and Intelligence Minister
    Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Eje'i. Mohammad-Ali Khawaja Piri, until now
    a senior director in the Islamic Guidance Ministry, will become
    the acting Islamic guidance minister, and Majid Alavi, one of the
    intelligence minister's deputies, will become the acting intelligence
    minister. Iranian media has reported that the president was also
    going to dismiss Health Minister Kamran Baqeri Lankarani as well as
    Labor and Social Affairs Minister Mohammad Jahrami.

    According to Iranian commentators, the president's decision to
    dismiss the ministers such a short time before the end of his
    government's tenure has to do with the criticism voiced by those
    ministers against his decision to appoint Rahim Masha'i as his first
    vice president. According to various reports, a heated argument between
    the president and the ministers broke out during the government meeting
    last week, following which the ministers walked out in protest (Farda,
    Fararo, July 26).

    Ahmadinejad dismissed nine government members during his first
    tenure. The president's decision to dismiss the ministers only one
    week before the end of the government's tenure drew strong criticism,
    as could be expected. Ahmad Tavakoli, the head of the Majles
    Research Center , said that there was no reasonable justification
    for dismissing the ministers at the present time, and that it was
    contrary to the interests of the government and the state. Tavakoli
    mentioned that according to the Iranian constitution, the dismissal of
    the intelligence and Islamic guidance ministers called for a new trust
    vote by the Majles, since over half of its members had been dismissed
    since the government began its tenure. He noted that he could not see
    the political reasoning behind the president's decision to dismiss his
    ministers just before the new government was presented to the Majles,
    requiring his government to win a new trust vote by the Majles (
    Fars , July 26).

    The Asr-e Iran website has also criticized the president's decision to
    dismiss his ministers, saying that even though it was the president's
    prerogative, dismissing the ministers at such close proximity to the
    end of the government's tenure only due to their stance regarding the
    appointment of Rahim Masha'i is completely unreasonable. The website
    said that the president's decision was all the more unwarranted given
    the prevailing mood in Iran in the wake of the presidential elections,
    requiring the president to calm the situation ( Asr-e Iran , July 27).

    Shortly after the information on the dismissal of the two ministers
    was released, Iran 's media reported that the president decided
    not to carry out his decision to dismiss the Islamic guidance
    minister in order to avoid having to go through a trust vote in the
    Majles. However, several hours later, Saffar Harandi sent a letter to
    the president saying that he was resigning on his own initiative. The
    news agencies reported that the president refused to accept the letter
    of resignation.

    Muslim solidarity put to the test: Iran 's response to the riots in
    west China The murder of Marwa al-Sharabini, a young Muslim woman of
    Egyptian descent, by a Russian-born German man during a court session
    in the German city of Dresden in early July aroused strong reactions
    in Iran , among other countries. The German ambassador to Tehran was
    called by the Iranian Foreign Ministry for a reprimand. The Foreign
    Ministry spokesman condemned the incident, saying that it reflected
    the deep-running hatred against immigrants and religious minorities in
    Germany . President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also addressed the incident,
    blaming the government of Germany for the murder and the West for
    its double standard on the issue of human rights. Ahmadinejad even
    demanded the UN Security Council to convene in order to discuss
    the incident and pass a resolution condemning Germany . However,
    the Iranian authorities' strong reaction to the murder of the Muslim
    woman in Germany made all the more conspicuous their silence over the
    clashes which broke out in early July between Chinese authorities and
    the Uyghur Muslim minority in west China. The riots in the province
    of Xinjiang broke out when members of the Muslim minority claimed they
    were discriminated against, and led to the deaths of over 150 people.

    The riots in China brought the Iranian authorities face to face
    with a complicated dilemma. Since the Islamic revolution, Iran has
    time and again reiterated its deep commitment to Islamic solidarity
    and its wall-to-wall support of Muslims worldwide. In this case,
    however, that commitment posed a potential threat to Iran 's national
    interests. First, Iran and China have a strategic relationship
    which covers many spheres, including energy, trade, communications,
    and transportation. In recent years, China has been one of Iran 's
    key trade partners. Iran also needs political support from China
    , a permanent member of the UN Security Council, to prevent the
    tightening of international sanctions against it due to the Iranian
    nuclear program. Had Iranian officials rallied to the support of the
    rioting Muslims in China , the close relationship between the two
    countries could have been compromised, as far as Iran 's authorities
    were concerned.

    The timing of the riots in China only worsened the dilemma facing
    Iran . The riots broke out several weeks after the Iranian authorities
    themselves suppressed the violent riots that broke out in the country
    after the presidential election results were published. The parallels
    between the happenings in China and the happenings in Iran required
    the Iranian authorities to exercise even greater caution in their
    response to the riots in China .

    In the days following the first international media reports on the
    suppression of the riots in China , Iran 's authorities avoided making
    any comments regarding the riots and the official media published
    almost no information about them. It was only about one week after
    the riots broke out that Iranian media reported on a telephone
    call held by Iran 's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki with his
    Chinese counterpart about the happenings in west China . According
    to those reports, in that telephone conversation Mottaki expressed
    the Muslim countries' concern over the killing of Muslim civilians in
    China . However, Mottaki stressed the need for maintaining China 's
    national unity and rejected all foreign attempts to interfere in China
    's internal affairs, saying such attempts were meant to destabilize
    that country. Not only did the Iranian authorities not condemn the
    suppression of the riots in China , the government's supporters even
    expressed support of the policy of the Chinese authorities and accused
    the US of instigating the riots. For example, the official news agency
    IRNA claimed that the Muslim protestors in China had been incited by
    the US , which would like to stage a velvet coup in China to deal
    with the strengthening of China 's economic position. Similarly,
    the ultra-conservative website Raja News claimed that the US was
    behind the riots in China , following up on the attempts of Western
    governments last year to incite the citizens of Tibet against the
    authorities on the eve of the Olympics in Beijing .

    A similar claim was made by Hamid Reza Taraqi, a senior member
    of the conservative Islamic Coalition party and a government
    supporter. Referring to the events in China , Taraqi said that the US
    was clearly involved, and that its involvement was driven by China 's
    support of the Iranian nuclear program. He further added that the riots
    in China had to do with ethnic as opposed to religious issues, and
    that the protestors who made use of religion had other goals. He said
    that there was no evidence of the Chinese authorities discriminating
    against Muslims, and that he saw no sign of any restrictions imposed
    on Muslims during his visit to China .

    Be that as it may, the reaction of the Iranian authorities and the
    government supporters to the riots in China was not indicative of all
    of Iran . The government's relative indifference over the suppression
    of the riots in China was even strongly criticized by senior clerics
    and Iranian media. Asr-e Iran, a news website associated with the
    pragmatic conservative bloc, accused the Chinese government of a
    continuing discrimination against China's Muslim minority and a policy
    of anti-Islamic suppression, while the Tabnak website claimed that
    the Iranian government's stance with regard to the events in China
    reflected a double standard regarding attacks on Muslims in China
    and in Palestine, wondering whether the relationship with communist
    China was more important than the murder of Chinese Muslims.

    The conservative daily Jomhuri-ye Eslami also strongly criticized
    the Iranian authorities' silence on the suppression of the riots in
    China . According to an editorial published in the daily and titled
    "The Events of Xinjiang and our Responsibility", the government's
    policy on the events in China and the official media's disregard of
    those events contradict Iran's commitment to defend the rights of
    Muslims worldwide, as set forth in the Iranian constitution. Even
    though it is political considerations that prevent the government of
    Iran from taking a strong stance on the events, the article says,
    the interests of the Muslim nation and maintaining the position
    of the Iranian regime are too important to justify that kind of
    indifference towards the events in China . The criticism voiced by
    Iran 's media was soon joined by senior clerics, headed by the two top
    conservative clerics: Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi and Ayatollah
    Safi Golpaygani, as well as the senior cleric Ayatollah Yusuf Sanei,
    associated with the reformist bloc. In a letter published by Ayatollah
    Makarem-Shirazi, the senior cleric condemned the oppression against the
    Muslims in China , saying that despite the close, friendly political
    and economic relations between Iran and China , Iran could not remain
    indifferent towards the violent suppression of China 's Muslims. The
    Iranian people, the letter says, expect Iran 's authorities to take a
    stronger stance on the events in China and not to leave their Muslim
    brothers in China to fend for themselves.

    The Iranian government's restraint on the events in China shows once
    again that Iran's foreign policy reflects a combination of official
    political interests on one hand and a revolutionary vision and
    ideological concepts on the other, and that whenever Iran perceives
    that the revolutionary vision may compromise its fundamental national
    interests, its tendency is to act in accordance with pragmatic
    considerations.

    Continuing deterioration in Iran 's economic situation Economic data
    released this week indicate that Iran 's economic situation continues
    to deteriorate. Recent data published by the economic intelligence
    team of the British weekly The Economist show that Iran 's exports
    this year are likely to decrease by 38 billion dollars compared to
    last year. According to the data, quoted by the ISNA news agency,
    the exports are expected to drop from 95.1 billion dollars last year
    to only 56.4 billion dollars this year, which would make it Iran
    's lowest exports level since 2004. However, The Economist forecasts
    that Iran 's exports will increase again next year to 67.5 billion
    dollars (ISNA, July 28). Also according to The Economist, in light
    of the decline in Iran 's oil revenues, the country's economic growth
    rate will drop by about half a percent.

    What is more, the reformist daily E'temad-e Melli has reported this
    week (July 25) that 150 Iranian financial companies are currently on
    the verge of bankruptcy. According to the report, the severe crisis
    among Iran 's public and private companies stems, among other things,
    from the global recession, the Western sanctions on Iranian banks,
    and the crisis in Iran 's banking system. The companies affected
    by the crisis include automobile giant Iran Khodro, major aluminum
    manufacturer IRALCO, as well as Fars Electronic. The daily Jomhuri-ye
    Eslami has also addressed this week the crisis facing Iran Khodro,
    saying that the government had to spend billions of dollars in an
    attempt to rescue the company (Jomhuri-ye Eslami, July 29).

    The daily E'temad-e Melli has also reported this week that in the
    first four months after the outbreak of the global economic crisis,
    350 thousand Iranian workers lost their workplaces. In that context,
    the economic daily Sarmayeh has reported this week that according to
    the International Monetary Fund Iran's unemployment rate is expected to
    reach 23 percent by 2010 (Sarmayeh, July 26). The Statistical Centre
    of Iran (SCI) has recently reported that the unemployment rate in
    Iran has dropped to 11.1 percent in the last several months.

    In early 2009, top Iranian government officials admitted that the
    world economic crisis was having an adverse effect on Iran 's economy
    as well. Prior to that, various Iranian officials, including President
    Ahmadinejad, rejected the claims that the economic crisis could hit
    Iran 's economy.

    Flight safety making headlines again after two air disasters in ten
    days The issue of civil flight safety has kept Iran 's media busy this
    week following yet another plane accident which took place in Iran last
    weekend. Sixteen people were killed and over 30 were injured when an
    Ilyushin Il-62 aircraft en route from Tehran to Mashhad (northeast
    Iran ) slid off the runway in Mashhad Airport and crashed. 153
    people were on board. According to reports, the passenger plane
    caught fire several minutes before the scheduled landing, making it
    impossible for the crew to land. The ILNA news agency reported that
    the accident was likely caused by a human error on the part of the
    pilot, who attempted to land the plane at excessive speed. The air
    disaster struck just nine days after the crash of another passenger
    plane, a Russian-made Tupolev belonging to Iran 's Caspian Airways,
    en route from Tehran to Yerevan , the capital of Armenia . All 168
    passengers and crew on board were killed in the crash, which took
    place near the city of Qazvin , in northwestern Iran . In yet another
    flight incident which took place this week, a passenger flight from
    Tehran to Mashhad had to return to the Tehran airport shortly after
    takeoff due to a technical malfunction.

    The Chairman of the Majles Committee on National Security and Foreign
    Policy said that a parliamentary enquiry committee was established
    to investigate the reasons behind the recent air disasters (Mehr,
    July 26). At the same time, Majles Speaker Ali Larijani asked the
    Transportation Minister to provide a detailed explanation about the
    air disasters which occurred recently.

    It should be noted that in the past decade, a relatively large number
    of air disasters, in which hundreds of people were killed, took place
    in Iran . According to various estimates, about one third of all the
    passenger planes used by Iranian airlines are not safe for use. The
    average age of the planes used by Iran Air, the national airline, is
    approximately 25 years. The main reason for the severe safety issues
    with Iranian planes is the economic embargo imposed by the West on Iran
    , which forces the airlines to use non-original spare parts either
    manufactured by Iran or purchased on the black market. Some airlines
    also use Russian planes, usually considered less safe. Following the
    two recent air disasters, top Iranian officials blamed the US for the
    deaths of innocent civilians as a result of the embargo on spare parts
    for planes. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hassan Qashqavi has recently
    claimed that the embargo was a violation of human rights which put
    at risk the lives of many civilians, including European and American
    nationals (IRIB, July 19).

    In that context, Iran Air CEO Saeed Hessami said this week that
    the company recently purchased 400 new passenger planes, including
    Tupolev-154 and Tupolev-204 planes. Hessami noted that the planes
    would arrive in Iran soon ( Fars , July 24).

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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